Even out of office (please, God!), Trump will still tweet and will still be a powerful force in the GOP. Candidates will be seeking his nod, and fearfully avoiding his wrath, for as long as he’s still alive.
Well then. Ball’s in your court, God.
Coming to this thread late but…
I’m sure Cory Gardner is just as likely to keep rising in his political career as other noteworthies on that list such as Jeff Flake, Tom Perriello, Mia Love, Justin Amash or Al Franken.
I’m not convinced. Trump is kept in office by the Republican elite because he can help deliver their agenda of funnelling more money to the rich and the Republican base because he can hurt the people they want to hurt. Once he’s out of office (assuming he loses) he won’t be able to do either and he’ll have the taint of losing, plus having to deal with whatever court cases may hit him. He’ll still have some devoted followers but he’s not going to be a kingmaker by any means.
It’s quite a list, isn’t it? Tulsi Gabbard is on there too.
Here’s an updated link for the new board software: Which of these politicians has a bright future?
I enjoyed reading this:
Subscription only. 
The terrific conclusion:
…Let me suggest that Senate Republicans, angst-ridden over the failure to conclude a [stimulus] deal, should have taken action when Trump put his reelection above national security concerns; when he refused to hold Russia accountable for bounties on our troops; when he aired false, quack theories and contradicted expert advice; when he insisted on reopening states while the virus still raged; and when he held a rally endangering thousands of Americans. They could have removed him — rebuked him even or, at the very least, declared they would not vote for him in November — for any number of corrupt and malicious actions. Instead, they bet their careers and mortgaged their conscience to their political party.
Republicans are worried now ? Hey, it is what it is.
Out of office, I think Trump runs a much better chance of getting banned from Twitter. Either that, or his lawyers may have to take his phone away to keep him from tweeting something stupid and/or incriminating when the post Presidency lawsuits start piling up.
This week’s poll dump. Twelve weeks to go.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1215 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 40% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 8/3/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 603 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 5% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/31/2020 | HIT Strategies | 400 RV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 39% | D + 3% |
| Georgia | 8/6/2020 - 8/8/2020 | SurveyUSA | 623 LV | Jon Ossoff 41% | David A. Perdue 44% | R + 3% |
| Iowa | 7/27/2020 - 7/30/2020 | RMG Research | 500 RV | Theresa Greenfield 40% | Joni K. Ernst 36% | D + 4% |
| Iowa | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1101 LV | Theresa Greenfield 45% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 2% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 RV | Theresa Greenfield 45% | Joni K. Ernst 48% | R + 3% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 48% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 48% | R + 1% |
| Kansas | 8/5/2020 - 8/6/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 864 V | Barbara Bollier 42% | Roger Marshall 43% | R + 1% |
| Kentucky | 7/25/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Bluegrass Voters Coalition | 3020 RV | Amy McGrath 46% | Mitch McConnell 49% | R + 3% |
| Kentucky | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 909 RV | Amy McGrath 44% | Mitch McConnell 49% | R + 5% |
| Maine | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 866 LV | Sara Gideon 48% | Susan M. Collins 45% | D + 3% |
| Maine | 7/27/2020 - 8/2/2020 | RMG Research | 500 RV | Sara Gideon 48% | Susan M. Collins 41% | D + 7% |
| Maine | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 807 RV | Sara Gideon 47% | Susan M. Collins 43% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 7/13/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Hodas & Associates | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 51% | John James 40% | D + 12% |
| Michigan | 7/25/2020 - 7/30/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 40% | D + 10% |
| Minnesota | 8/8/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Emerson College | 733 LV | Tina Smith 48% | Jason Lewis 45% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 7/23/2020 - 7/31/2020 | HIT Strategies | 400 RV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 32% | D + 16% |
| North Carolina | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 934 V | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1170 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 41% | D + 8% |
| Oklahoma | 7/29/2020 - 7/30/2020 | DFM Research | 572 LV | Abby Broyles 34% | James M. Inhofe 50% | R + 16% |
| South Carolina | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 914 RV | Jaime Harrison 44% | Lindsey Graham 44% | Even |
Holy crap, that’s about as optimistic as I’ve felt for Kentucky yet. I’ve been debating the idea of sending McGrath a token $20 (from Texas), but after seeing a series of polls showing MoscowMitch leading by 15 - 17 I got kind of discouraged.
Still kind of odd to see such disparate polls over just the matter of a few weeks. And maybe I give too much weight to 538’s poll “grades” but I’m also surprised that the polls for the most part are in that B- to B+ range yet still showing such varied results. At least they’re heading back in a good direction for now.
Wouldn’t it be awesome if Graham and McConnell were brought down by Trump? It won’t happen but the thought puts a smile on my face.
That D+16 poll in North Carolina is ridiculous. Cunningham may be up, but he’s not up by 16 points.
Kentuckians and Kentucky businesses are hurting because of the Senate’s dereliction of duty, and they’re not happy with McConnell because of it:
(Usual Washington Post paywall warnings apply.)
“The economic tumult in Kentucky is vast, and it has added new urgency to the political standoff on Capitol Hill, where the prospect of a prolonged deadlock could worsen the financial woes in a state that was hurting long before the pandemic arrived. Caught in the middle is McConnell, 78, who some critics say has struggled to navigate the priorities of the president, the political desires of a fractious Republican conference and the economic needs in his own backyard.”
And Susan Collins.
Crossing my fingers…
The Republican Senate nightmare is coming true?: The Republican Senate nightmare is coming true | CNN Politics
More on the Markey v. Kennedy race in Massachusetts: With backing from AOC, Ed Markey tries to hold on in Senate primary with Joe Kennedy
I happened to see a pretty good Ed Markey ad on Twitter just the other day. I was inspired. No sarcasm.
In Colorado senate race news, Cory Gardner is running ads on Facebook that focus on how closely he is aligned with Trump. The weird thing is that he’s running these ads in every state except Colorado.
Cory Gardner Runs Pro-Trump Facebook Ad Being Seen Everywhere — Except In Colorado
I have a feeling that the Hegar/Cornyn race is going to be pretty close- probably at least as close as Beto/Cruz was, if not closer. First off, Cornyn is pretty much the definition of colorless and low profile. Second, there’s a lot of anti-Trump frustration outside of the hardcore right-wingers.
I think the race is really going to come down to just how disgusted voters are with Trump, and whether or not Cornyn will get voted out because of his association with him.
Cornyn is certainly lower profile than Cruz, but while that means he has fewer zealots who will brave sleet or hail to vote for him it also means there are fewer voters who hate his guts. And MJ doesn’t have anywhere near the momentum that Beto did two years ago.
I think you’re right that Texas Democrats – Hegar but also Democrats in competitive state House and Congressional races – will rise or fall based on how Trump performs in Texas. The state party has made some decent progress clawing back from the absolute shell of an organization it was six years ago when they lost every statewide race by twenty points. But it’s gonna take Trump bottoming out for them to get over the hump this year.