Uh oh — from The NY Times:
“In Michigan, Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat, faces a surprisingly strong challenge from John James, a graduate of West Point who is considered one of the Republicans’ top recruits of the cycle. Mr. Peters leads by just one percentage point, 43 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters, a significant narrowing of the race since a Times/Siena survey in June that found Mr. Peters leading, 41-31.“
I saw this as well, and a little troubling, but looking at the 538 polls for this race, the polling has been inconsistent at best, though Peters is ahead since April, with a somewhat narrowing gap. A poll last week showed him +10. This may be one that is really affected by the GOTV efforts in Michigan, but too close for comfort, that’s for sure. He’s still a 4:1 favorite to win according to Nate’s magic formulas.
SurveyUSA has Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, a widening of his +7 lead in September.
Here’s a tweet about it. I don’t think the “scandal” is really affecting voters. I’m not sure why it would, considering the last few years.
I’ve heard some low-key Democratic grumbling about Peters. Apparently his last Senate run was against a third-rate Republican who effectively disappeared from the race. There was a sense that he was slow to gear up for this cycle. Still, if Biden maintains his lead in Michigan he should be OK.
That Michigan race is weird. That seat has been less likely to be by a Democrat than the seats in AZ and CO which are held by Republican incumbents. I have no idea why Peters is so vulnerable.
Here’s a post of mine from this thread on May 20th expressing the same confusion. What is it about this guy?
latest poll has Cunnigham up 10. not sure I believe that we will see about other polls
Nice. Who knew that moderate North Carolinians were secretly French?
The thing is, in terms of a sex scandal, this is about as mild as it comes. Yes, he had an affair; but it was consensual, and he immediately owned up to it (no “Hiking the Appalachian Trail,” no “fake news,” no “I did not have sex with that woman”), and he’s been pretty good about pivoting to the issues whenever people ask him about the scandal. I’m still pissed at him for risking Senate control for the sake of getting it on, but he’s handling the aftermath well.
It helps that Tillis has been accused by two wives of spousal abuse. Still a stupid thing to do in the middle of a race for United States Senator and the balance of the body on the line.
This might also be one more indication that North Carolina is slowly but inexorably following the Virginia example and urbanizing/liberalizing.
It does feel like this is the case. I hope you are correct in your analysis.
It may be why the GOP have particularly stepped up their dirty tricks in NC in recent years - the gerrymandering issues, the nobbling of the Governor’s powers, the mail-in ballot scandal and so forth. They see the writing on the wall in what has been a reliably red state up to now, and they’re not going down without a fight.
And by “fight” we mean that Republicans will use the rural/urban divides to keep drawing up districts that lock in majorities for themselves. They are fast approaching Wisconsin mass, where Dems get close to 55% of the overall state vote but are a minority in the state houses and have only three of the eight congressional representatives.
“Just win elections” is a pretty hollow argument when the system is stacked against you.
Lots of new polls released.
Cunningham looking like he may survive his historically sexy scandal.
Greenfield solid in Iowa. I’m starting to believe.
One close Michigan poll got a lot of play, but on average Michigan looks OK.
Not enough polling in Maine.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Alaska Survey Research | 676 LV | Al Gross 44% | Dan Sullivan 48% | R + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 900 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 7% |
| Arizona | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 296 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 9/28/2020 - 10/5/2020 | HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 44% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 10/3/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data Orbital | 550 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 44% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 9/28/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Latino Decisions | 600 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 5% |
| Arizona | 9/29/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Ipsos | 633 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1045 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1144 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 8% |
| Colorado | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 599 LV | John Hickenlooper 46% | Cory Gardner 44% | D + 2% |
| Colorado | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | SurveyUSA | 1021 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 39% | D + 9% |
| Colorado | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 837 LV | John Hickenlooper 50% | Cory Gardner 40% | D + 10% |
| Georgia | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 1402 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 43% | R + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/27/2020 - 10/6/2020 | University of Georgia | 1106 LV | Jon Ossoff 41% | David A. Perdue 49% | R + 8% |
| Georgia | 10/7/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Landmark Communications | 600 LV | Jon Ossoff 46% | David A. Perdue 47% | R + 2% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/9/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 528 V | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 43% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1837 LV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 46% | R + 4% |
| Iowa | 10/1/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1205 LV | Theresa Greenfield 50% | Joni K. Ernst 45% | D + 5% |
| Iowa | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Civiqs | 756 LV | Theresa Greenfield 49% | Joni K. Ernst 46% | D + 3% |
| Iowa | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 1022 LV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 4% |
| Kansas | 9/29/2020 - 9/30/2020 | VCreek/AMG | 3104 LV | Barbara Bollier 45% | Roger Marshall 42% | D + 4% |
| Louisiana | 8/6/2020 - 8/12/2020 | ALG Research | 800 LV | Adrian Perkins 33% | Bill Cassidy 52% | R + 19% |
| Maine | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 500 RV | Sara Gideon 43% | Susan M. Collins 42% | D + 1% |
| Maine | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 466 LV | Sara Gideon 44% | Susan M. Collins 43% | D + 1% |
| Michigan | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 1451 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 40% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/30/2020 - 10/3/2020 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 45% | John James 40% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 676 LV | Gary C. Peters 51% | John James 43% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/3/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Tarrance Group | 601 RV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 46% | D + 2% |
| Michigan | 9/29/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Ipsos | 709 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 43% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Emerson College | 716 LV | Gary C. Peters 51% | John James 41% | D + 10% |
| Michigan | 9/30/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1134 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 42% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 1181 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 44% | D + 3% |
| Michigan | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1710 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 40% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 614 LV | Gary C. Peters 43% | John James 42% | D + 1% |
| Minnesota | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | SurveyUSA | 929 LV | Tina Smith 44% | Jason Lewis 37% | D + 7% |
| Montana | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 737 LV | Steve Bullock 48% | Steve Daines 47% | D + 1% |
| Montana | 10/5/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Emerson College | 500 LV | Steve Bullock 43% | Steve Daines 52% | R + 9% |
| Montana | 10/9/2020 - 10/10/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 798 V | Steve Bullock 48% | Steve Daines 48% | Even |
| New Hampshire | 10/1/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Saint Anselm College | 1147 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 53% | Corky Messner 39% | D + 14% |
| New Mexico | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 886 LV | Ben Ray Luján 51% | Mark Ronchetti 41% | D + 10% |
| North Carolina | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 1664 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 396 LV | Cal Cunningham 50% | Thom Tillis 46% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | East Carolina University | 1232 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 47% | R + 0% |
| North Carolina | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 1285 LV | Cal Cunningham 50% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 11% |
| North Carolina | 9/29/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Ipsos | 601 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1993 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 41% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 RV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 47% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | SurveyUSA | 669 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 10% |
| South Carolina | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 782 LV | Jaime Harrison 46% | Lindsey Graham 45% | D + 1% |
| South Carolina | 9/24/2020 - 9/28/2020 | GBAO | 800 LV | Jaime Harrison 48% | Lindsey Graham 47% | D + 1% |
| South Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 903 LV | Jaime Harrison 42% | Lindsey Graham 48% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 9/8/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Morning Consult | 2555 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 45% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | YouGov | 908 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 50% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 1949 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 45% | R + 3% |
| Texas | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Civiqs | 895 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 46% | John Cornyn 47% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 10/5/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 39% | John Cornyn 48% | R + 9% |
| Texas | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 3455 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 47% | R + 9% |
I forgot to add… three weeks to go!
Is that chart messed up or did Monmouth University poll NC three times in the same span for three different results?
Monmouth polled 500 NC registered voters once, and then applied two different likely voter models to that data (high and low turnout).
If Tillis loses here that does not bode well for Trump. If Tillis loses here by 5 or more points Trump probably loses here too.