The Morning Consult South Carolina poll is annoying. That’s a good lead for Graham.
It’s amazing to me that Cunningham really may shrug off the affair. In the Monmoth poll, his favorability flipped from 34% favorable/22% unfavorable in September to 25% favorable/33% unfavorable. Yet his polling lead over Tillis increased. Partisanship is just so locked in at this point that I’m not sure what sort of personal revelation would significantly change a candidate’s trajectory.
What’s Charlotte’s equivalent of Fifth Avenue?
Actually, a quick glance at Google Maps suggests it could be “Fifth St”!
I think it’s mainly Trump dragging down Tillis.
Even those who may disapprove of Cunningham’s affair may be reluctant to swap over to the Republicans where the candidate is (allegedly) an abusive spouse and the party leader is a serial adulterer. It’s not like there’s an ideal choice on that particular metric.
How about a scandal where the behavior was nonconsensual, like in the case of my district’s Congressional candidate Madison Cawthorne? That would definitely change my perspective.
How about a scandal where the behavior involved official wrongdoing, like where Tillis dumped stock after a COVID briefing? That would change my perspective.
But a scandal where a candidate is unfaithful to his wife and owns up to it immediately on being caught? It might me respect him less as a person, and it might make me angry at him as a candidate, but it’s not going to change my willingness to vote for him.
Tillis has been polling worse than Trump in NC pretty much the entire race.
Just saw Gardner’s (R - CO) latest commercial which was basically “C’mon guys. You already have one Democratic senator.”
Sounded very desperate.
The quantity of small individual contributions to these Senate races is heartening. I think it’s a solid reason to believe that there will also be a big turnout to vote.
Trump wins SC easily but the close race for Senate may help Graham turn out more of his voters.
Interesting news out of Nebraska, where audio leaked of Sen Ben Sasse in a constituent call saying that Trump cozies up to dictators , mocks evangelicals behind their backs and flirts with white supremacy among other charges. All true, of course, and Sasse has been one of the few Senators willing to make some limited criticism of Trump. But this was strong stuff and could cause some trouble with the base, particularly if Trump pitches a Twitter fit over it.
He’s up for re-election this year. While I’m sure it’s a forgone conclusion, just for giggles has anyone polled this race?
Sasse is comfortably ahead - NE2 may go for Biden but the state overall is deep, deep red. Some may grumble but what are they going to do - vote for the Democrat?
Yeah, it’s not like a Democrat is going to be more supportive of CFSG. Sasse may get a primary challenge in 6 years, but that is forever in political terms, especially if, Odin willing, Trump loses.
Of course the answer is “not vote in the Senate race,” but I’m sure you’re right that NE is so red that even if Sasse’s comments did depress his vote total a bit he’d still coast. Hard to believe that Nebraska had a Democratic Senator as recently as eight years ago.
During last night’s senate debate, Sen. Joni Ernst had no clue what the break-even cost for soybeans was while challenger Theresa Greenfield nailed the cost for corn down to the penny. She lamely tried to blame it on audio issues or hearing the wrong question but her answer wasn’t remotely correct for the question she claims she heard either.
Obviously not a singular game changing moment but Ernst is fighting to keep her seat in Iowa and has ridden the “I grew up on a farm!” credentials hard. And it gave us the #JoniDoesntKnowBeans hashtag.
Those clips are priceless. I’m even more impressed by Greenfield’s answer as it’s obviously a bit of a “gotcha” question and not only does she give the spot price immediately but she explains why that may be break-even for some farmers and not for others.
Not sure how strongly that will play in Iowa, but it can’t hurt her with the farming communities.
Hope the Lincoln Project or the DNC can make good use of it; doesn’t even have to be done in Nebraska.
Dems need an Iowa senator to get to 51-49 because I think the hopes for wins in Kansas, Montana and South Carolina are diminishing. Maybe snag one of those Georgia seats.