And finished the strange analogy by stating that those women soon find out they can’t change their man, but they put up with him because they love him, and even though the whole world sees him beating them he’s really much nicer when they’re alone and when no ones watching they push back on him and don’t get a beating,really, OK maybe a slap or two but nothing like the public abuse so it’s all good.
Crystal Ball just moved Iowa from toss-up to Leans D.
An Iowa get would be gigantic to me. Maine is already a Leans D and that would be enough. Any pickups from NC, Kansas or Georgia would be gravy.
Just donated again to Ditch Mitch, although I suspect the GOP Turtle-man is going to win.
Two weeks to go!
Overall a really good week of polling for team D.
More Maine polls please.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | FM3 Research | 801 LV | Doug Jones 48% | Tommy Tuberville 47% | D + 1% |
| Alabama | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Moore Information | 504 LV | Doug Jones 40% | Tommy Tuberville 55% | R + 15% |
| Alaska | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Patinkin Research Strategies | 600 LV | Al Gross 47% | Dan Sullivan 46% | D + 1% |
| Alaska | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Harstad Strategic Research Inc. | 600 LV | Al Gross 46% | Dan Sullivan 46% | Even |
| Alaska | 10/10/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Harstad Strategic Research Inc. | 606 LV | Al Gross 47% | Dan Sullivan 46% | D + 1% |
| Alaska | 10/9/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 423 LV | Al Gross 37% | Dan Sullivan 45% | R + 8% |
| Arizona | 9/23/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Targoz Market Research | 1045 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 10/4/2020 - 10/8/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 608 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 5% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 RV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 10/7/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Ipsos | 667 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 11% |
| Arizona | 10/13/2020 - 10/16/2020 | YouGov | 1065 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 11% |
| Arizona | 10/16/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data Orbital | 550 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 6% |
| Colorado | 10/5/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 800 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 40% | D + 8% |
| Colorado | 10/8/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 519 LV | John Hickenlooper 51% | Cory Gardner 41% | D + 10% |
| Colorado | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1013 LV | John Hickenlooper 53% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 11% |
| Colorado | 10/9/2020 - 10/15/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | John Hickenlooper 51% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 9% |
| Colorado | 10/12/2020 - 10/16/2020 | RBI Strategies & Research | 502 LV | John Hickenlooper 53% | Cory Gardner 39% | D + 14% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 782 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 43% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 782 LV | Raphael Warnock 44% | Kelly Loeffler 40% | D + 4% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 782 LV | Matthew Lieberman 41% | Kelly Loeffler 42% | R + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1160 LV | Jon Ossoff 51% | David A. Perdue 45% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1160 LV | Raphael Warnock 52% | Kelly Loeffler 44% | D + 8% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1160 LV | Raphael Warnock 54% | Doug Collins 42% | D + 12% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | SurveyUSA | 677 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 46% | R + 3% |
| Georgia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 759 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 43% | Even |
| Georgia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 759 LV | Raphael Warnock 45% | Doug Collins 41% | D + 4% |
| Georgia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 759 LV | Raphael Warnock 45% | Kelly Loeffler 41% | D + 4% |
| Georgia | 10/17/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Emerson College | 506 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 46% | R + 2% |
| Georgia | 10/17/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Emerson College | 506 LV | Raphael Warnock 48% | Doug Collins 46% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/17/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Emerson College | 506 LV | Raphael Warnock 47% | Kelly Loeffler 42% | D + 5% |
| Iowa | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 822 LV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 4% |
| Maine | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Pan Atlantic Research | 600 LV | Sara Gideon 47% | Susan M. Collins 40% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 45% | John James 39% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 620 LV | Gary C. Peters 52% | John James 44% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/11/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1018 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 48% | R + 1% |
| Michigan | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 1289 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 43% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/18/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 900 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 43% | D + 6% |
| Minnesota | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Change Research | 1021 LV | Tina Smith 48% | Jason Lewis 44% | D + 4% |
| Montana | 9/14/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Montana State University Bozeman | 1615 LV | Steve Bullock 49% | Steve Daines 47% | D + 2% |
| Montana | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Steve Bullock 47% | Steve Daines 49% | R + 2% |
| New Hampshire | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 51% | Corky Messner 36% | D + 14% |
| New Hampshire | 10/9/2020 - 10/12/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 899 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 55% | Corky Messner 40% | D + 15% |
| New Jersey | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Stockton University | 721 LV | Cory A. Booker 57% | Rik Mehta 32% | D + 25% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/11/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 36% | D + 10% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 627 LV | Cal Cunningham 41% | Thom Tillis 37% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1211 LV | Cal Cunningham 51% | Thom Tillis 45% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 10/13/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Emerson College | 721 LV | Cal Cunningham 45% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 706 RV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 646 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 47% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | East Carolina University | 1155 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 47% | D + 1% |
| South Carolina | 9/29/2020 - 10/5/2020 | ALG Research | 1011 LV | Jaime Harrison 46% | Lindsey Graham 46% | Even |
| South Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 801 LV | Jaime Harrison 47% | Lindsey Graham 46% | D + 1% |
| South Carolina | 10/9/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 605 LV | Jaime Harrison 40% | Lindsey Graham 46% | R + 6% |
| South Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/16/2020 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 525 LV | Jaime Harrison 47% | Lindsey Graham 45% | D + 2% |
| Texas | 10/14/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 712 V | Mary Jennings Hegar 46% | John Cornyn 49% | R + 3% |
| Texas | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 933 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 41% | John Cornyn 44% | R + 3% |
| Texas | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Cygnal | 600 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 41% | John Cornyn 49% | R + 8% |
| Virginia | 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 | Cygnal | 600 LV | Mark R. Warner 51% | Daniel M. Gade 41% | D + 9% |
| Virginia | 10/9/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Cygnal | 607 LV | Mark R. Warner 51% | Daniel M. Gade 44% | D + 7% |
| Virginia | 9/30/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Reconnect Research/Roanoke College | 602 LV | Mark R. Warner 55% | Daniel M. Gade 38% | D + 17% |
| Virginia | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1231 LV | Mark R. Warner 54% | Daniel M. Gade 43% | D + 11% |
| West Virginia | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Research America Inc. | 450 LV | Paula Jean Swearengin 33% | Shelley Moore Capito 53% | R + 20% |
Glad to see they’re finally polling New Jersey and West Virginia – those were my sleeper races! 
Not much new here. I continue to be astounded by how consistently badly McSally is doing in Arizona. Gardner’s got to be quietly reaching out to lobbying firms about his next gig. The affair revelation doesn’t seem to have dented Cunningham much at all. And LOL at that poll that puts Doug Jones up by one in Alabama.
Send Ernst a package of soybeans.
Not worth polling in Kentucky anymore?
I just checked and the last poll for KY Senate on 538 is from late September with Mitch +7. Probably not getting polled as often since Kentucky isn’t a presidential battleground, but it is a little surprising that there hasn’t been a more recent senate poll there.
The one that’s driving me crazy is Maine. One poll this week. One poll last week. WTF?
Maine is notoriously tough to poll because you have to interpret those accents. “Ayah, flatlander are ya? I’m voting for Cahlins, she’s wicked moderate.”
Have you ever heard a Yooper accent? We still got five polls from Michigan this week. And 10 last week!
We have a KY senate poll from Cygnal today…
The Cygnal survey, conducted October 19 – 20, with 640 likely general election voters, shows McConnell leading McGrath 50% to 40%, with 5% of voters supporting the Libertarian candidate and 5% still undecided.
No new Maine polls. There hasn’t been a senate poll in Maine in the field since October 6. 
polls cost money so they are going to do them mostly in tight races.
No shit.
That makes this even more infuriating. Maine is one of the the tightest races.
How would you know, there hasn’t been a poll there in 3 weeks!
Biden is up by 13 so that means less polls in Maine. Here in NC the race is a toss up so we get more polls
I LOL’ed.
Thanks. And ugh.
Just a twitter allegation for now, but allegedly photos of Mark Kelly dressed up as Hitler during his time at the Merchant Marine Academy have surfaced. The source is the same conservative reporter who unearthed the Ralph Northam KKK/blackface yearbook photo.