Also that Maine poll has Biden ahead in both CDs.
Sweeeet!
There’s some clips of the Ossoff (D) v Perdue (R) Georgia senate debate in my feed this morning. I almost felt bad for Perdue. He looks like he might start crying at points.
While I could see Ossoff besting Purdue in the vote totals on election day, I have a much harder time seeing him getting over 50%. And I don’t like his odds in a mid-December runoff where outraged Democratic voters will have felt like they already vented the spleen on November 3 and are much less likely to turn out.
This is the regular senate race, not the special. No 50% requirement.
The special looks like it might be headed to a Warnock (D) v Loeffler (R) runoff.
Perhaps, but the Ossoff v. Perdue race only has 1 other nominal contender. So the hurdle to 50% is not as great as the other Georgia Senate race, which has 3 strong contenders. That one is almost surely going to result in a runoff election.
I thought there was still a 50% requirement in Georgia to avoid a runoff even in a regular election. Is that not right?
I stand corrected. There IS a 50% requirement in both races.
Perdue chickens out.
It really was a brutal verbal beating he took at the hands of Ossoff.
Nice!
Thanks.
Some headlines write themselves. . .
Ossoff’s speech should have been accompanied by “BAM!” “POW!” “THWACK!” pop-ups from the old Batman TV series.
And looking at the 538 graph in this Georgia race, holy shit things are getting interesting.
Looks like all the polls that are baked in as of tonight (Thursday) were prior to Ossoff going scorched earth on Perdue in last night’s debate?
On Sunday, Perdue was at 70 / 30, and as of tonight he’s fallen to 57 / 43. Hopefully he keeps falling off a cliff.
I don’t follow the “race to 51” math nearly as much as I do the “race to 270” math. So one of y’all would need to tell me if this Georgia seat would be considered a “gift” (like how I think my state of Texas would be considered on the presidential side).
50 plus Harris controls the chamber. The best path for that is hold all D seats except Alabama. Flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. The next four getable seats are Iowa, Georgia special, Georgia, and Montana.
Both lists are roughly in order of most to least likely D win.
I think your batting order is pretty accurate. And there are a couple of things that would make a pickup or two in Georgia especially sweet. First, their challengers haven’t knocked out Joni Ernst or Susan Collins yet, though I have reasonable hopes of both going down. Second, getting to 51 or 52 eliminates the threat of WV Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Dem in a deep red state who didn’t get 50% of the vote in '18. An evenly split Senate puts heavy pressure on Manchin in much the same way Collins is held in check somewhat by a Maine electorate turned against Donald Trump (and for which her support is about to cost her).
The Senate is hard for Dems to win and to hold. Getting a Georgia senator or two in the fold would be enormously helpful.
During local news they almost always run Tillis and Cunningham ads back to back. I wonder if the candidates requested that ? Probably not. They run those ads on a lot of other shows too and sometimes they are back to back. Also we get plenty of Biden and Trump ads. There are ads for people I don’t know for state house or senate that are finally showing up. You can tell the people running for Congress who are a lock to win , they don’t run ads on TV. We have 2 Dems that are not running ads ,Price and Ross. Price has been there for over 30 years and needs to go.
I’m sure they requested those particular time slots, not that they be run back-to-back. I’d bet that “during the evening news” is a pretty good spot for a political ad if you’re aiming for a demographic that’s likely to vote.
Another fun fact about the Georgia Senate races – if a candidate does not receive 50%+1 of the vote on November 3 (guaranteed to happen in the special election and a strong possibility in the Purdue-Ossoff race), there will be a special election to determine the outcome on January 5. That’s one day before the next Senate is due to convene. If control of the chamber is at stake and the outcome of either or both special elections is unclear or being litigated, the Senate could convene not knowing which party will ultimately form the majority. How they would conduct business in such a situation would be fascinating.
FiveThirtyEight is now forecasting “Democrats are favored to win the Senate”.
It looks like there have been some dramatic changes in peoples’ considerations since 1 October or thereabouts.