Yup. He’s pretty fucking awful, so awful it’s hard to keep up.
You could give to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. There, your donation would be split equally (or you can customize where your donation goes) among several important races.
saw a youtube ad for Biden and Cunningham. Guess that means Biden is OK with running with Cunnigham
“If Mitch McConnell’s hands get any blacker he won’t let them vote.”
Full fact-check from factcheck.org on bogus Mar Kelly dressed as Hitler story…
This is mildly disconcerting…
That’s my debiased PredictIt tracker for their senate control market. I’m not sure what that market is reacting to. 538’s senate control model is at 73-27 D and almost flat over the last couple days.
My guess is paranoid jitters. Markets aren’t necessarily 100% rational, especially betting markets.
Thanks for this. Such a contrast between how the Kelly campaign handled this allegation and Ralph Northam’s panicked, undirected flailing. They didn’t panic, quickly established that it was not Kelly in the photo and let credible surrogates get the facts out. Whereas Northam first apologized for being in the photo then later recanted and said it wasn’t him. And would have done the moonwalk at his press conference of his wife hadn’t stopped him.
Could be.
Part of it may have been an overreaction to that Mark Kelly smear attempt. The AZ senate market also had a big swing. It looks like the markets are bouncing back from that. My plots are 24 hour rolling averages so there’s a bit of lag.
So, clearly a front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
I love the logic of “Kelly can’t tell us who it actually is in the photo, therefore it must be Mark Kelly.”
A couple of recent polls in Texas by the New York Times and University of Houston show Cornyn up by 10 and 7 points, respectively. I do get the sense that this race is creeping out of the “long-shot but looking possible” column to just “long-shot”. It’s interesting though that Cornyn’s advertising has been heavily focused on covering preexisting conditions and bringing down the cost of prescription drugs. He even says that he wants to “work with members of both parties” to do so.
So even if Cornyn does win, the days of running statewide on a platforms of “God, gays and guns” in Texas are likely over.
Ugh. I mean, I’m pulling for a Dem takeover but sometimes it feels like you’re just swapping out one group of octogenarians for another. And screw them if they give Bob Menendez a gavel, he may have gotten off in his court case but he’s still up to his neck in sleaze.
Seven days to go! At least 68 million people have already voted.
No Maine senate polls again this week. YouGov polled Massachusetts (D+39), but not Maine.
Control of the senate is big freakin’ deal. WTF?
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 10/21/2020 - 10/23/2020 | Cygnal | 645 LV | Doug Jones 41% | Tommy Tuberville 55% | R + 14% |
| Alaska | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 1076 LV | Al Gross 44% | Dan Sullivan 47% | R + 3% |
| Alaska | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 800 V | Al Gross 41% | Dan Sullivan 44% | R + 3% |
| Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 8/31/2020 | Basswood Research | 800 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 48% | D + 0% |
| Arizona | 10/3/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Basswood Research | 800 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 48% | R + 1% |
| Arizona | 10/14/2020 - 10/19/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Mark Kelly 46% | Martha McSally 39% | D + 7% |
| Arizona | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 232 LV | Mark Kelly 54% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 11% |
| Arizona | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Mark Kelly 46% | Martha McSally 44% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1066 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 44% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/14/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Ipsos | 658 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 10/19/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 50% | R + 3% |
| Arizona | 10/22/2020 - 10/25/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 716 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 5% |
| Colorado | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 788 LV | John Hickenlooper 50% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 8% |
| Georgia | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 44% | Even |
| Georgia | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Jon Ossoff 50% | David A. Perdue 45% | D + 5% |
| Georgia | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Jon Ossoff 48% | David A. Perdue 43% | D + 5% |
| Georgia | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 44% | Even |
| Georgia | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1672 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 46% | R + 2% |
| Georgia | 10/21/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Landmark Communications | 500 LV | Jon Ossoff 45% | David A. Perdue 50% | R + 6% |
| Georgia | 10/14/2020 - 10/23/2020 | University of Georgia | 1145 LV | Jon Ossoff 46% | David A. Perdue 45% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/20/2020 - 10/23/2020 | YouGov | 1090 LV | Jon Ossoff 46% | David A. Perdue 47% | R + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 1041 LV | Jon Ossoff 51% | David A. Perdue 45% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 1041 LV | Raphael Warnock 51% | Kelly Loeffler 37% | D + 14% |
| Georgia | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 1041 LV | Raphael Warnock 51% | Doug Collins 42% | D + 9% |
| Iowa | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Theresa Greenfield 43% | Joni K. Ernst 49% | R + 6% |
| Iowa | 10/5/2020 - 10/8/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Theresa Greenfield 44% | Joni K. Ernst 45% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 RV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 47% | Even |
| Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 LV | Theresa Greenfield 49% | Joni K. Ernst 47% | D + 2% |
| Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 LV | Theresa Greenfield 51% | Joni K. Ernst 45% | D + 6% |
| Iowa | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | 400 LV | Theresa Greenfield 48% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 5% |
| Iowa | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 753 LV | Theresa Greenfield 44% | Joni K. Ernst 45% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/21/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Theresa Greenfield 46% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 3% |
| Iowa | 10/19/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Emerson College | 435 LV | Theresa Greenfield 46% | Joni K. Ernst 50% | R + 4% |
| Kansas | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 755 LV | Barbara Bollier 42% | Roger Marshall 46% | R + 4% |
| Kansas | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | co/efficient | 2453 LV | Barbara Bollier 39% | Roger Marshall 51% | R + 12% |
| Kansas | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 897 V | Barbara Bollier 43% | Roger Marshall 43% | Even |
| Kentucky | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Amy McGrath 42% | Mitch McConnell 51% | R + 9% |
| Kentucky | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Cygnal | 640 LV | Amy McGrath 40% | Mitch McConnell 50% | R + 10% |
| Massachusetts | 10/14/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 713 LV | Edward J. Markey 65% | Kevin J. O’Connor 26% | D + 39% |
| Michigan | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Gary C. Peters 46% | John James 42% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 41% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 830 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 43% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1034 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 50% | R + 2% |
| Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 45% | John James 39% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 718 LV | Gary C. Peters 51% | John James 46% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1717 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 42% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 686 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 45% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1032 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 41% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1104 RV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 41% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/21/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 804 V | Gary C. Peters 52% | John James 43% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 10/24/2020 - 10/24/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 679 LV | Gary C. Peters 52% | John James 41% | D + 11% |
| Minnesota | 10/16/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SurveyUSA | 625 LV | Tina Smith 43% | Jason Lewis 42% | D + 1% |
| Minnesota | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Civiqs | 840 LV | Tina Smith 54% | Jason Lewis 43% | D + 11% |
| Minnesota | 10/24/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 657 LV | Tina Smith 53% | Jason Lewis 39% | D + 14% |
| Mississippi | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 507 LV | Mike Espy 44% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 52% | R + 8% |
| Montana | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Strategies 360 | 500 LV | Steve Bullock 47% | Steve Daines 48% | R + 1% |
| Montana | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 758 LV | Steve Bullock 46% | Steve Daines 49% | R + 3% |
| Nebraska | 10/19/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Cygnal | 625 LV | Chris E. Janicek 18% | Ben Sasse 47% | R + 30% |
| New Mexico | 10/14/2020 - 10/17/2020 | GBAO | 600 LV | Ben Ray Luján 52% | Mark Ronchetti 41% | D + 11% |
| New Mexico | 10/14/2020 - 10/17/2020 | GBAO | 600 LV | Ben Ray Luján 54% | Mark Ronchetti 43% | D + 11% |
| North Carolina | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 929 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 521 LV | Cal Cunningham 51% | Thom Tillis 45% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Meredith College | 732 LV | Cal Cunningham 43% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1904 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 47% | Even |
| North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Cal Cunningham 45% | Thom Tillis 45% | Even |
| North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1098 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 49% | R + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/23/2020 | YouGov | 1022 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 43% | D + 6% |
| Oklahoma | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SoonerPoll.com | 5466 LV | Abby Broyles 37% | James M. Inhofe 56% | R + 20% |
| South Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 926 LV | Jaime Harrison 47% | Lindsey Graham 45% | D + 2% |
| South Carolina | 10/26/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Starboard Communications | 800 LV | Jaime Harrison 42% | Lindsey Graham 52% | R + 9% |
| Tennessee | 10/20/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Cygnal | 610 LV | Marquita Bradshaw 36% | Bill Hagerty 56% | R + 21% |
| Texas | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1145 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 43% | John Cornyn 49% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 3347 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 41% | John Cornyn 46% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1012 RV | Mary Jennings Hegar 32% | John Cornyn 40% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 925 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 34% | John Cornyn 42% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | YouGov | 1000 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 49% | R + 7% |
| Texas | 10/20/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 802 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 48% | R + 10% |
| Texas | 10/22/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Data for Progress | 1018 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 46% | John Cornyn 48% | R + 2% |
| Virginia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 908 LV | Mark R. Warner 57% | Daniel M. Gade 39% | D + 18% |
Seriously, what is going on?
The pollsters all got stuck in the hidden lakes of maple syrup that underlie most of Maine.
Oh, my stars and garters, a Colby College Maine senate poll.
Gideon (D) +3.2% with 3.6% undecided.
Need more Maine senate polls.