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Yes, I had the same thought. It would be helpful to see D, R or I (or G, or W, or whatever) after each candidate’s name. Perhaps those who post poll results in this thread could insert those, please?
I’ll be happy to include that in the future.
MANY thanks!
It comes from reality, as announced by the polling prophet Nate Silver, whose mantra is “Polls are a snapshot, not a forecast.”
No professional politician ever looks at just the headline number. They examine in minute detail all the breakdowns by race, by gender, by age, by party, and by opinions on the other questions asked during the polls, and then compare those numbers to those on the last poll to see what changes have taken place.
That provides information on where they are now, how much and in what direction their efforts have changed the numbers, and what they should be emphasizing to change opinions to be more favorable or to keep them at a good high. And they spend huge amounts of time looking at the undecideds to try to suss out a way to sway them into their column.
So, no. Nobody in politics thinks that Tillis will get 36% in November. Unfortunately, a huge percentage of amateurs, in the media and online, look at that one number and make it the entire discussion. It’s easy to report one number and then write a quick article about it. It’s also a sure way to get ignored by everyone who understands polling.
If you want a short cut, the best one is the trend line. Is the lead solid? Are the changes moving in one direction? Are the groups favorable to you lessening their undecideds and fixing on your message? Get those answers and you know where and how to spend time and money before the election.
Predict derived probability of senate control by party for the last 28 days.
New senate polls release plus new board software equals fire.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariz. | JUN 27-29, 2020 | Data Orbital | Kelly 50% | McSally 43% | Kelly (D) +7 |
| Ariz. | JUN 26-28, 2020 | Change Research | Kelly 53% | McSally 44% | Kelly (D) +9 |
| Mich. | JUN 26-28, 2020 | Change Research | Peters 49% | James 42% | Peters (D) +7 |
| N.C. | JUN 26-28, 2020 | Change Research | Cunningham 51% | Tillis 41% | Cunningham (D) +10 |
That’s the first NC poll I’ve seen with a spread anywhere near that large. I hope it’s accurate.
I posted this one a week ago in this thread…
U.S. Senate, N.C., JUN 14-17, 2020, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Cunningham 45%, Tillis 36%, Cunningham +9
One more poll released today from PPP.
Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) +11 over Gardner (R, incumbent).
I’ve seen Dems in many NC statewide races lead in polls early but in the end they lose. Since 76 only Obama won NC in 2008.
In fact when the Dems controlled the state house and senate they setup the ballot so that a straight ticket vote did not include the presidential race. They were afraid people would vote R for the straight ticket and hurt down ballot races. Now there no longer is a straight ticket option.
I had missed or failed to remember that post, apologies.
Two new senate polls released today. The Maine one is bad news. Maine has been sparsely polled and is pretty important to most paths for Democratic senate control.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | JUN 24-25, 2020 | Public Policy Polling | Hegar 35% | Cornyn 42% | Cornyn [R] +7 |
| Maine | JUN 20-24, 2020 | Moore Information | Gideon 37% | Collins 45% | Collins [R] +8 |
In Arizona for the last month there have been ads by a couple PACs claiming “Kelly is in China’s pocket.” They’ve not been by the McSally campaign itself, but it hasn’t repudiated them, either. Now, the latest polls still show Kelly ahead (for the most part*) but the gap is narrowing, mostly among the formerly uncommitted.
Sigh.
*Gravis Marketing is OAN. 'Nuff said.
Here are all the Arizona senate polls that were in the field in June. In aggregate they paint a pretty bright picture for Kelly. Of course, there’s still 124 days to go.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariz. | JUN 27-29, 2020 | Data Orbital | Kelly 50% | McSally 43% | Kelly [D] +7 |
| Ariz. | JUN 26-28, 2020 | Change Research | Kelly 53% | McSally 44% | Kelly [D] +9 |
| Ariz. | JUN 27, 2020 | Gravis Marketing | Kelly 42% | McSally 46% | McSally [R] +4 |
| Ariz. | JUN 14-17, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Kelly 49% | McSally 34% | Kelly [D] +15 |
| Ariz. | JUN 8-16, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Kelly 47% | McSally 38% | Kelly [D] +9 |
| Ariz. | JUN 13-15, 2020 | Civiqs | Kelly 51% | McSally 42% | Kelly [D] +9 |
| Ariz. | MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020 | Fox News | Kelly 50% | McSally 37% | Kelly [D] +13 |
Man, that is really bad news. I had been under the impression that Collins had lost a lot of support in ME. Obviously, that’s only one poll, but it is worrying for sure. Dems are going to have to really kick into high gear up there.
Four month (ish) to go. I fear I may look back and wish the election was on Independence Day.
The GOP now worries they may be losing Florida seniors: Florida coronavirus: Anxiety over Trump's chances with senior voters increases as the virus spreads | CNN Politics
I’d never heard of “Moore Information”, but FiveThirtyEight gives them a grade of B/C with a slight Republican bias.
Edited to add that their website says Susan Collins is one of their clients. Wouldn’t read too much into this poll.
Two senate polls released today. Both good news. 120 days to go.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | JUL 2-3, 2020 | Public Policy Polling | Gideon 46% | Collins 42% | Gideon [D] +4 |
| Iowa | JUN 23-28, 2020 | GQR Research* | Greenfield 49% | Ernst 47% | Greenfield [D] +2 |