POLITICO sez Republicans in danger of losing huge portion of their women senators: Republicans in danger of losing huge portion of their women senators - POLITICO
On that note… new Arizona senate poll released today.
Kelly 49%
McSally 42%
Kelly [D] +7
Martha McSally is the woman pictured in the above Politico article.
“I’m a suburban, college-educated woman, so this is my demographic. I’ve given my life to serve others, to break barriers for others … to stand up against discriminating policies like my eight-year battle in the Pentagon over the burka so this is my constituency, man.”
–Martha McSally
And she also called Trump’s, “grab 'em by the pussy,” quote disgusting in mid-2016. Yet in the mid-term 2018 election she had swallowed the Tump-ade but was still defeated by Sinema. The only reason she’s Senator today is because she was appointed by Governor Ducey [R] to fill McCain’s term after Kyl unexpectedly resigned.
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And at that she’s being challenged in the Republican primary by a guy who thinks she’s not Trumpy enough.
As an Independent voter, I’ve requested the Republican ballot for the primary. I’m mulling over whether to do some strategic voting.
The Texas Tribune has an interview up with Texas Senate candidate MJ Hegar. She still has a runoff against state Senator Royce West next week (his interview will go up tomorrow), although the conventional wisdom is that she’s in the lead.
My overall impression is . . . eh. She’s got a decent enough bio and reasonable enough positions that if Biden beats Trump in a landslide she could be swept into office. Gotta wonder where this race might be if Beto hadn’t decided he was too cool for another Senate race.
Ann Coulter must be high or drunk or off her medicines, she tweeted Mitch McConnell needs to lose .
Dem Senate candidates are raising lots more money than Republicans are: Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters. | CNN Politics
Coulter does not like Moscow Mitch because he’s in favor of cheap labor, meaning immigrants. That’s her big issue and why she’s not a Trumper now , he did not build the wall as he promised.
Poll-a-palooza. Not a ton of good news in this batch of polls, but it does contain a lot of polls of redder states.
16 weeks to e-day.
| State | Dates | Polster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 6/29/2020 - 7/2/2020 | WPA Intelligence (WPAi) | 509 LV | Doug Jones 40% | Tommy Tuberville 50% | R + 10% |
| Alabama | 7/2/2020 - 7/9/2020 | Auburn University at Montgomery | 558 RV | Doug Jones 43% | Jeff Sessions 49% | R + 6% |
| Alabama | 7/2/2020 - 7/9/2020 | Auburn University at Montgomery | 558 RV | Doug Jones 36% | Tommy Tuberville 44% | R + 8% |
| Alaska | 7/7/2020 - 7/8/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1081 V | Al Gross 34% | Dan Sullivan 39% | R + 5% |
| Arizona | 7/6/2020 - 7/7/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 600 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 9% |
| Arizona | 7/7/2020 - 7/10/2020 | YouGov | 1087 LV | Mark Kelly 46% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 4% |
| Georgia | 7/2/2020 - 7/2/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 513 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 48% | R + 5% |
| Georgia | 7/2/2020 - 7/2/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 513 LV | Raphael Warnock 37% | Kelly Loeffler 48% | R + 11% |
| Georgia | 7/2/2020 - 7/2/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 513 LV | Matthew Lieberman 39% | Kelly Loeffler 46% | R + 7% |
| Georgia | 7/2/2020 - 7/2/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 513 LV | Matthew Lieberman 37% | Doug Collins 46% | R + 9% |
| Georgia | 7/2/2020 - 7/2/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 513 LV | Raphael Warnock 38% | Doug Collins 47% | R + 9% |
| Maine | 7/2/2020 - 7/3/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1022 V | Sara Gideon 46% | Susan M. Collins 42% | D + 4% |
| Montana | 7/9/2020 - 7/10/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1224 V | Steve Bullock 46% | Steve Daines 44% | D + 2% |
| Montana | 7/11/2020 - 7/13/2020 | Civiqs | 873 RV | Steve Bullock 47% | Steve Daines 49% | R + 2% |
| North Carolina | 7/7/2020 - 7/8/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 818 V | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 8% |
| Texas | 6/29/2020 - 7/7/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1909 RV | Mary Jennings Hegar 26% | John Cornyn 37% | R + 11% |
| Texas | 6/29/2020 - 7/7/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1677 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 29% | John Cornyn 42% | R + 13% |
| Texas | 6/29/2020 - 7/7/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1909 RV | Royce West 25% | John Cornyn 37% | R + 12% |
| Texas | 6/29/2020 - 7/7/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1677 LV | Royce West 28% | John Cornyn 43% | R + 15% |
| Texas | 7/7/2020 - 7/10/2020 | YouGov | 1179 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 36% | John Cornyn 44% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 7/7/2020 - 7/10/2020 | YouGov | 1182 LV | Royce West 37% | John Cornyn 43% | R + 6% |
That Perdue over Ossoff poll is a bit disappointing. More mystifying to me is that Susan Collins is close, and could win this thing. I don’t get that. I’m hoping the next high-quality Maine poll shows a wider gap.
Some notes on Gravis Marketing polls… Gravis Marketing is a Republican pollster that is rated a C by 538, but they have an overall D lean of about a point. They for the most part are doing honest polling with some methodological defects.
This cycle however, OANN is sponsoring a bunch Gravis Marketing polls and only releasing the ones that are favorable to Trump and/or Republicans. This kind of cherry picking will bias the results overall.
That big batch of Georgia senate polls are all OANN sponsored Gravis polls.
This story is developing and subject to change.
G. Elliott Morris Tweet (data-journalist for the Economist) …
Why are polls sponsored by One America News some of Trump’s best? I spoke to Gravis Marketing, their pollster, who said that OAN has only been releasing the polls Gravis sent them that turned out best for Trump. (Gravis says they have since told OAN to “cut it out.”)
The problem with Georgia is that while the trend line for Dems is positive, they have no bench to pull from. And the one star they do have took a pass on the Senate races. Ossoff’s only electoral experience is losing a special election where he was absolutely deluged in campaign money and national support. How he’ll fare when he doesn’t have that level of support is an open question.
NBC News - Capitol Hill Republicans struggle to navigate Trump’s sinking approval: Hill Republicans struggle to navigate Trump's sinking approval
Notes on the polls I post to this thread: I noticed that I was posting polls to this thread when I liked the results and not bothering to post polls I was less excited about (for the most part, sometimes I was just too lazy to post a poll). This is almost as bad as what it appears that OANN is doing except that I don’t claim to be a news a network.
My solution is that I wrote a script to get the polls I haven’t posted yet from 538’s senate polls and output them in markdown table format so that I can post them to this thread. I’m planning to do this once a week, but the whole thing is a work in progress so I could do it more or less often. This will probably be dictated by the volume of polls.
I’ll stop doing it if there is a general consensus of folks who post in this thread that my poll posting is detracting from the thread.
To promote Tuberville Trump called Alabama coach Nick Saban Lou Saban more than once. Lou was a FB coach who died in 2009, mostly known for coaching Buffalo Bills.
I’d say keep at it, if you’re willing. Thanks.
Tillis from NC says vote Trump because things were good in Feb!
You’re welcome. I’ve got it down to a handful of clicks now so I’ll probably keep at it.
Looks like Jeff Sessions is going down to defeat in the Senate runoff election to Auburn Football coach Tommy Tuberville. About 60-40% right now and the number of voters across the state were very sparse.
You wonder if Sessions regrets giving up his Senator’s seat in 2016? He’d be up for re-election this year and there’s little doubt (at least in my mind) he’d be winning re-election come November. Instead he’s out of a job and Trump has no use for him. Poor Lil’ Jeff.
Meanwhile Alabama, showing it’s usual political acumen, will probably elect a Trump-ist football coach with no political experience in a year that could see the Dems take control of Congress and the White House (nothing is for sure, but there is a fair chance of it).
Press on.
Preet Bharara’s Tweet on the Alabama senate primary runoff says it pretty well:
Sessions was Trump’s 1st Senate supporter, lent him legitimacy. In return, Sessions gave up his seat. Lost his cabinet position. Lost his dignity. Lost his reputation. Lost his comeback race. Lost his place in the party. Lost everything. Because of false faith in Donald J. Trump.
This week’s poll dump. No notable plot twists that jump out at me.
15 week to E-day!
| State | Dates | Polster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 6/23/2020 - 7/7/2020 | Alaska Survey Research | 663 LV | Al Gross 40% | Dan Sullivan 53% | R + 13% |
| Arizona | 7/10/2020 - 7/12/2020 | Change Research | 345 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 7% |
| Kentucky | 7/7/2020 - 7/12/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 800 LV | Amy McGrath 41% | Mitch McConnell 45% | R + 4% |
| Michigan | 7/9/2020 - 7/10/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1041 V | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 42% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 7/10/2020 - 7/12/2020 | Change Research | 824 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 43% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 7/10/2020 - 7/12/2020 | Change Research | 655 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 7/13/2020 - 7/15/2020 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 547 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 3% |
| South Carolina | 7/17/2020 - 7/17/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 604 LV | Jaime Harrison 41% | Lindsey Graham 48% | R + 7% |