Will there be one? And if so is anybody planning for it? Population and proximity to the EU would seem to indicate that such a crisis will dwarf that from Syria that caused so much turmoil in the last decade.
Of course there are refugees - tens of thousands are going to Poland even as I type, as just one example.
Whether or not that will be a “crisis” is a different matter. On the upside, a country like Poland might be more welcoming to fellow Slavs than people from the Levant. On the downside, there might be more of them and the conflict is in much closer proximity.
On another forum someone posted instructions for incoming refugees from Ukraine that are being put at the Polish border, directing people where to get assistance. If I can find it again (because all such threads move very fast) I’ll post it.
Ah, here we go - apparently there are version in several languages. Which are which I don’t know as I don’t read Cyrillic alphabets. I couldn’t get it to post as a picture here, so it will be links:
English translation. Or maybe English is one of the languages they’re using, seeing how common it is as a 2nd or 3rd language in much of the world.
There are somewhere between 2 and 4 million Ukrainian immigrants in Poland already. It has been that way for years, EU membership since 2004 and many took advantage of this to work in other countries such as the UK. The labour shortage this created in Poland was made up by Ukrainian immigration, so there is a big community. The first refugees will be staying with friends and relatives that are established in Poland. There is also a Hungarian speaking part of Ukraine and I expect they will be seeking refuge there.
However, there will be people that do not have these connections and that will require some support by the government.
There is currently no legal way for Ukrainians to come to the UK. In fact there is a new Immigration Bill going through Parliament that is intended to criminalise anyone arriving in the UK unless they follow very restrictive rules. It is a Brexit thing. Anti-immigration policies are a vote winner in many European countries…or at least they were until now.
The countries neighbouring Ukraine are, I am sure, very unsettled. The normal ‘home and hearth’ political discourse has been interrupted by this frightening existential threat from Russia and their invasion of Ukraine.
A refugee crisis is just the beginning.
Canada IS planning for it. Canada has a long history with immigration from Ukraine. We have the largest population of them outside of their homeland.
As a result, there will be support from our government, (though specifically NOT troops on the ground!), and they are already preparing to take in plenty of refugees.
I just heard on the BBC that the Ukrainian government has forbidden any men between 18 and 60 from leaving the country. The refugees may will be almost entirely women and children.
It’s a tiny border but Slovakia is all in on welcoming refugees. I’ve read that the process is slow, but there are Slovak troops on the border getting it done.
There is a general mobilisation. All men of fighting age are being called up and issued with weapons. There is going to be a lot of urban warfare as the Russian troops try to occupy the cities. It is going to be very bloody. Putin has demanded that the Ukrainian army give up and put down their weapons. He may have underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians to fight for their country.
Will Kiev turn into another Aleppo?
How effective will these guys be? I wouldn’t be worth a damn with no military training.
It’s going to vary.
Some will get very crude on-the-fly advice and “training” (probably along the lines of "this is a gun. You hold this end. Point this end at the bad guys. Pull this and it goes bang).
Some will get none.
Some will die pointless deaths.
Some will be effective in some manner.
What else do they have?
Although the rest of the world is wondering how people with such enormous brass balls manage to walk normally. Also, they have lots of weaponized snark.
I wouldn’t call them “refugees” unless they plan to leave Ukraine and never return. I’m sure almost all of them would be willing to return when/if things settle down.
I’m reminded that the French Resistance when the Germans occupied Paris in WWII were very effective. Many of them, men and women and even children, had no formal training.
Much the same (ironically) as when Hitlers forces were repelled from Russias cities during WW2 the big one.
I understand that’s the popular perception. I am less certain that represents a historical reality.
Among the many depressing aspects of this situation seems to be the extent to which social media is treating this like a really cool reality TV show. Not like people are dying.
That’s not how you define refugee: a person who has been forced to leave their country in order to escape war, persecution, or natural disaster.
Wanting never to return is not part of the definition. A refugee is just someone who flees to escape a threat and it can absolutely be a temporary state of being. It is not someone who flees with no thought of ever returning.
I have noticed a lot of weird, redefinition of what words means lately wrt this crisis. Yeah…the folks fleeing Ukraine are absolutely refugees, regardless of whether they plan to or even can ever go home again. From what I understand, western countries are already sending in troops and personnel to start dealing with this ongoing crisis. Hopefully aid will start flooding into the countries that border Ukraine to help them to help the refugees coming in.
I grew up ‘studying’ WWII. In WWII, people were dying. Many French Resistance fighters lost their lives – often after torture – fighting Fascism. Nevertheless, the Resistance was successful despite the losses.
Did you hear about the 80-year-old man who showed up at a military office with an overnight bag, saying that he wanted to enlist, not for himself, but for his grandchildren?
What about men who have mental and/or physical disabilities?
Poland has reportedly already accepted 150k reduced and is expecting more:
And despite the relatively warm welcome, they are waiting 20 or 30 hours to be processed.
Other countries are also opening their arms to the Ukrainians. But men age 20-60 aren’t allowed to leave, as they’ve all been drafted. I assume some are leaving anyway, but haven’t seen that information.
Ukraine holds Kyiv, second-largest city Kharkiv as Putin intensifies invasion
Over four days of fighting, the United Nations’ refugee agency said Sunday that 368,000 people have fled Ukraine.