There would probably be signs beyond North Korea’s borders if there were a sudden collapse in Kim’s health.
China could tighten security along its frontier to prepare for potential instability or refugee flows. Activity around North Korean diplomatic missions might also increase. Defectors in South Korea often receive information through informal networks along the Chinese border. None of this has happened.
South Korean intelligence officials, meanwhile, told Yonhap they had heard nothing to support the reports.
I find it strange that his proof of life is some photos from an event that may very well have taken place weeks or months ago. Someone rumored to be dead, especially a world leader, obviously has much better ways of communicating to others that they are still among the living. It could be as simple as going on TV or a livestream of whatever social media they use in North Korea and mentioning some event or another that just happened. The fact that he hasn’t done so does lead me to suspect something weird is happening (although admittedly that could very well be political intrigue of some king, like a potential coup, rather than a health crisis).
I doubt that event happened secretly in a vacuum. Surely there is some evidence (even from NK) that this was a real event that was scheduled and took place.
I don’t understand the connection. Are they afraid Kim’s death may spark a revolution and, I assume, are the troops there to support the troops of the regime?
More like to keep the North Korean troops in line, to prevent them from supporting someone that is attempting to launch a coup. Assuming there is something actually going on and that Chinese troops were in fact sent.
Yeah. If Chinese troops are there and Kim is dead or nearly so, then those troops are there to ensure China’s favorite choice, whoever that might be, has a good shot at winning the ensuing power struggle.
A precursor question for anyone that I do not know the answer to. …
Are Chinese troops ever routinely in NK? Or is NK real bristly about that and they’d never approve Chinese, supposedly friendly, troops on their soil?
Yes, they are allies. But e.g. American troops are routinely in e.g. Germany but not in Mexico. At Mexican insistence. Might NK have the same attitude?
The value of knowing whether Chinese troops are semi-routinely in NK is to be able to gauge how big a deal it is if Chinese troops truly provably do show up some day. Whether soon or not.
North Korea isn’t technically a monarchy so they won’t literally make a child Supreme Leader or head of state. If Kim Yo Jong were to succeed her brother and consolidates power it’s doubtful that she’d give it up once her niece comes of age.
It’s the kind of monarchy where the rules of succession are unclear but it has to stay in the family. They do talk a lot about the Mount Paektu Bloodline.
As for the thread topic, precedent is that they would only take a day or two to announce the death. I think waiting longer gives more time for additional leadership candidates, unwanted by the sister and daughter, to emerge.
I don’t think that a regency in the name of the daughter would work very well. Any would-be dictator wants a plan that’ll work for longer than a half-dozen years, and what do you do once she’s old enough to claim the full seat for herself?
Why blame ongoing offline status on Kim being dead or incapacitated versus technical failure or malware attack?
Their IT infrastructure is probably as rickety as the rest of their country.
IT-relevant story about the risk of depending on 'cloud' providers
I read the other day about an IT company that provides cloud-based services to software development companies. Evidently they have a bunch of customers.
They went totally dead one morning. They used the Amazon cloud to host all their stuff. Although they’d paid their bills timely, somehow inside Amazon that fact got lost and their entire company was simply switched off for non-payment.
It took 3 days to discover what was wrong and correct it. Even if you’re a business spending serious money at Amazon every month, they do not have responsive customer service. At all. Nor much insight into how their own internal processes work. AI don’cha know.
Returning to the thread, maybe NK forgot to pay their AWS bill?
Or the Department of “war” is fucking with them hopinig to provoke an incident between now and the election?
Also, they have been cobelligerents on the Russian side against Ukraine. So there’s someone else who may want to mess up their data infrastructure.
Then again it could be one massive “trust test” by the Kims, to see how long everyone will just stand pat and dare not move, to be followed by purges of anyone who did not do as expected.
KCNA is back up today. No news of Dear Leader passing on, but there don’t seem to be any releases about him at all since the clothing shop two days ago, and there are a few public statements by the sister.
At the moment I’m thinking “probably alive, but maybe sick or something”.
May as well leave this thread open for the next time rumors start swirling.
More than 270 production units, including major light industry factories and newly built city and county garment factories, submitted around 70,700 clothing items across some 30 categories and about 170,000 pairs of footwear across some 60 categories to the exhibition.
Kim expressed satisfaction, noting that this year’s exhibition, held annually every October…
It’s interesting how Kim Yo Jong gave an interview yesterday but wasn’t seemingly asked too much about Jong Un. I think that’s her mo but am not sure about that.
I think Yo Jong’s telling point yesterday was interesting when she called the South Korean border guards ‘gangsters.’ In San Diego, that word’s a compliment but not where she works.