Before the court rulings, our Political Report rated 217 House districts as solidly Democratic or leaning toward Democrats and 16 seats that were tossups. In these tossup districts, each side had a 50-50 chance to win. They are seats that are the most vulnerable. Under that scenario, Democrats would need to win just one of those 16 tossups to reach a majority in the House.
Today we rate 207 districts as solidly Democratic or leaning toward Democrats and 18 as tossups. To win a majority, Democrats need to win at least 11 of the 50-50 contests (and hold all those leaning their way) in order to get a majority.
It isn’t a doom and gloom piece but things have definitely shifted away from a D blowout in the House. According to Walter the Senate is still very tight.
Updates on the “progressive” wing of the Democratic party in House races:
-Democratic nominee Chris Backemeyer was believed to have a reasonable shot of ousting Republican incumbent in Nebraska 1, a district which last voted for a Democrat in 1964. Right on time, a “progressive independent” backed by The Intercept and other left-wing media has parachuted in to split the vote and ensure a Republican victory.
-In the race for the Democratic nomination in Texas 35, normal Democrat Johnny Garcia is trailing Maureen Galindo, whose key issues include “Jewish control of the banking system,” the “Zionist occupation of America through ICE,” and who the “real Jews” are. Senate nominee James Talarico refused to campaign with Galindo after she called for “a prison for Zionists” and denounced the “synagogue of Satan.”
DSA member Chris Rabb, who champions issues important to working-class Philadelphians such as the Bondi Beach massacre of Australian Jews being a “false flag” done by “Zionists,” is expected to win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania 3 today.
As shocking as it may be, that summary leaves out some important information, such as that Chris Rabb explicitly disavows that Instagram post, says it was made by a former staffer who has been fired, and affirms that Bondi Beach was a horrific act of antisemitism.
cite–I’m having trouble finding a non-paywalled source of the quote, so this is the best I can do.
That’s correct, he did indeed get caught playing to his base, issued a statement claiming that the Chris Rabb campaign websites do not speak for the Chris Rabb campaign, then spent the next month continuing to appear with Hasan Piker and “Jewish” Voice for Peace on an obsessive Israel-conspiracy-theorist platform.
Philadelphia State Rep. Chris Rabb, who is locked in a tight campaign for a seat in Congress, is disavowing a December post on his Instagram account that promoted an antisemitic conspiracy theory about the deadly Hanukkah massacre in Australia’s Bondi Beach, saying a former staffer was responsible.
So, the so called Instagram post was not written by him. The accusation is bogus. And here’s the thing- it was ONE Instagram post. Nothing else he has said indicates antisemitism.
I’m hoping all this gerrymandering blows up good and hard in their faces. If you have, say, ten districts, “you” gerrymander seven or even eight of them to win with 52% of the vote and stuff all of “them” into two or three. However, if enough voters get disgusted at “your” party leader stuffing his pockets with both hands while publically stating he doesn’t care about what happens to people suddenly those narrow margins flip the other way.
With 53 percent of the vote is, the endorsed blue collar vibe guy, Bob Brooks, has 40 percent compared to 22 percent for the candidate I described as a GOP ringer, Lamont McClure. The race isn’t called, but it does look pretty strongly like the GOP funding of a candidate too progressive for the district failed.
Unfortunately, from my moderate POV, Brooks has been running ads the last few days saying that he too is a progressive. Maybe McClure gave him got a scare.
Ratfuck in Texas-35. The district leans red: it’s R+4. There’s a runoff on May 26 between Bluedog Dem Johnny Garcia and progressive Dem Maureen Galindo. The Republican Super PAC Lead Left is pulling hard for Galindo:
AFAICT every Republican candidate endorsed by Trump in this election cycle has won their primary, even defeating incumbents like Massie in Kentucky and Cassidy in Louisiana.
The MAGA base is out there, and they continue their blind loyalty. Polls be damned, the only hope for Democrats this fall is not just a frustrated electorate, but a united Democratic party and a huge get out the vote push.
