US Midterm Election watch along thread

Yep, sure thing (spreadsheets make this kind of thing easy, and Discourse makes it easy to paste tabular data).

At any rate, I definitely hope the trend shifts, as well it might (for example, the aforementioned mail-in ballots being possibly blue-biased). No reason to write the state off at this point; it’s just that this isn’t a case of the blue counties finishing their counts last. There has to be some other effect for Cortez to win.

Boy - them Dems sure are impressive in their shenanigans! :wink:

It goes deeper than I thought!

Has anyone followed the attorney general races? I know there were concerns about that, but it hasn’t made the headlines.

ABC just projected another Dem which brings it to 211-200 GOP but two uncalled races in California have two Democratic contestants so we can call it 211-202.

That leaves 22 races. Democrats lead in 12 of them but they need to win 16 to keep the house.

Do you know is that counting Alaska for the Ds or Rs? I’m pretty sure that will end up in the D column.

I believe it includes AK as a D

The vibe I’ve been getting from following Jon Ralston & Co is that CCM will likely take the lead as the remaining ballots are counted though Democrats will fall short for holding the governor’s seat.

As a side note, CCM is expected to benefit more from ballot curing since the Culinary Union is actively working to help get those ballots cured with 200 canvassers reaching out to get ballots corrected by Monday. I don’t think there’s any similar presence on the GOP side. From what I gather, the ballots that need to be cured are public record (not the vote, of course, but the name) so they cross-reference it against party registration and go find the person to let them know that they need to take care of it for their ballot to count.

Next AZ vote drop at 8pm local time. (7pm in CA).

FiveThirtyEight at least seems to think it looks promising:

In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent (a margin of 8,988 votes). Cortez Masto should take the lead here as more mail ballots are counted.

This drop should include 17k in-person votes which will skew them redder than future drops which will only consist of early votes dropped off on election day.

Doubts are being raised about McCarthy’s ability to win the speakership should Republicans prevail in the House, as seems very likely. The disturbing aspect of this is that Rep Andy Biggs, who I believe is chairman of the Freedom Caucus, accused McCarthy of not being sufficiently committed to impeaching Biden! These people are just malevolent lunatics.

What happens if a majority party cannot get a majority of their membership to agree on their House leader (and thus speaker)?

Maybe a large moderate faction can get some Democrats to join them.

And maybe elect a neutral outsider, perhaps a retired judge?

The majority party leader does not automatically become Speaker (although that IS what happens in the Senate with Majority Leader). He or she would still need to win a majority vote of the whole House, and Members can vote for whomever they wish. Members can also put anyone they want into nomination, or even vote for someone who has not been nominated.

Both parties put up a name, it would be very funny if it turns out to be a democrat.

I can’t wait to find out what it is they plan to impeach Biden over. I mean, with Trump, at least the reason was clear.

Ooooh, wouldn’t it be fun if they put in cheney’s name…

Liz or Dick? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: