…Huh. As of when I checked, it said something like 51-49. That must have been an AI hallucination, or something.
I like it that Mississippi’s Jefferson Davis County has broken nearly 2-to-1 for Colom, the Democrat.
Talarico wants to abolish the filibuster. 
The filibuster is the Democrats’ best friend during this lame duck session. It won’t be the last time.
That’s excellent news. Looks like barring a successful lawsuit (unlikely) Mississippi might just be the unlikeliest of wins. Since I suspect Peltola probably won’t quite sneak past ranked choice voting, this would give a very solid final score of 55 seats.
Which is 3 or 4 more than my own most optimistic pre-election assessment 
. One more in data point in a long history proving to me that I should never make bets on politics.
As of now, in MS Colom (D) has 1200 more votes than the R, while Pelota in AK leads by about 600. Really close.
I was thinking 52, so I will be at least 2 off, maybe even 3 or 4.
Moderating:
@MaxTheVool, just a reminder, but we are keeping this thread for the watch on the actual election including candidates and ballot issues. Discussions of the possible futures of such should be taken to an appropriate thread, or feel free to spin off a thread for a nuanced discussion. Since your post was directly after my last mention of this, I’ll assume you missed it but please exercise more care.
How to Reply as a linked Topic
Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, looks like a curving arrow point to the right.
Choose Reply as linked topic and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it.
That is actually the best method.
I bit the bullet and gave Colom’s campaign some money (they requested it). Not a lot, and I’m not entirely sure what they’ll do with it, but quibbling over provisional ballots is a potential costs-money thing, to say nothing of getting involved in litigation, and it seemed worthwhile. The only other donation I made this time around was to my local US Representative, an incumbent Democrat whom I expected to win (and who did win, more handily than I expected). I’ll take his campaign signs down tomorrow.
I think it’s interesting that Ilhan Omar won her district with 76.48% of the vote, and AOC got 78.22%. I’ve heard of landslides, but damn their constituents love them (not that I blame them in the slightest).
Those are very heavily Democratic districts.
Miss is going to come down to the 10th.
There are 5 commissioners reconciling ballots. The provisional ballots must be cured by the 10th.
The lawyers are descending on miss. to watch the process. Going to be very interesting down there.
Alaska has fifteen days of counting until they do the first step of the ranked choice (if necessary)
So for anyone interested, I just plugged the county data presented in the AP’s Mississippi senate election results page into a spreadsheet, calculated the expected remaining votes, assigned those remaining votes to the candidates at the same proportions as the current voting in that county, and added everything up.
Note: if the outstanding votes break differently than the current votes in a county, which they very well could, then this analysis is of limited use. There could also be significant rounding errors in the calculation of outstanding votes as there are only two significant digits in the % counted column.
However, based on the assumptions that the outstanding votes are comparable to counted votes in the same county, Colom will pull further ahead by ~3000 votes.
Great work.
I was just looking at that massive list of counties and squinting trying to see where the outstanding votes were, and thought to myself, “You know, spreadsheets are really good at crunching data like this.”
Thanks, and let us hope!
Associated Press just called a flip in Nevada District 2. Woo hoo!
Omar’s in a D+50 district. Something like 75-25 is normal there.
On another tier of government, Los Angeles is getting a new mayor, in a D/D contest (as a result of the “Jungle Primary”) challenger Nithya Raman prevailed over incumbent Karen Bass.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/6149517-nithya-raman-los-angeles-mayor
Thank you for mathing. It does seem like Colom is the more confident candidate right now.