USA Election Watch 2026

And obviously Nixon was a heavy underdog in Florida, so just keeping it close bodes well for results in the rest of the country. Even better, Nate Silver just noted that Democrats have been doing notably worse in Florida than in other States thus far.

NBC has Nikki Haley on just slamming Darline Graham.

I can’t listen to that snake. I muted her.

I guess I’m trying to figure out the logic on how that’s “even better”?

Quote from Silver

If you had to characterize the results, you might say they’re kinda mid for Dems in Florida versus being very good in other states so far. But that’s kind of typical. Florida just gets this steady flow of migrants, and is perpetually becoming redder; something that maybe we’ll look to account for in future years in our models.

Nikki is thinking leaning dem in sc.

Because we’re doing pretty well in Florida, relatively speaking. That suggests we should do even better everywhere else.

Kornacki (streaming) is breaking down Florida vote. he sure knows his data.

This just in from the dementia ward:

Trump just posted a long screed about how “my numbers are better than they have ever been”, and about how all this is Fox News’ fault for not supporting him enough.

Polls closed in NC half an hour ago, I was hoping for an early call for Cooper.

Ms now just called Georgia for ossoff the ap called it as well.

Did I just hear that Orange County, Florida is still at 0% reporting? That should be a heavily Democratic area, no?

And now the AP has called the race for Ossoff as well.

Trump is unhinged and making crazy Tweets about how Fox is out to get him and 99% of Republicans support him and he’s higher rated than Lincoln

Booker reelected in NJ and Coons in Delaware.

Stratton in IL and Markey in MA as well.

AND Reed in RI.

I don’t know what the Predictit buyers/sellers know, but Paxton (TX - R) has fallen to $0.02 just now

From the Silver blog

FL-27 is currently the tightest race in the country

Wow.

Wow, wow, wow.

With >95% of the votes counted, incumbent Republican congresswoman Maria Elvira-Salazar is leading by 77 VOTES in Trump +0.2 (2020)/Trump +14.5 (2024) FL-27.

This is a heavily Hispanic seat, with more than 70% of its residents being Latino. It swung massively towards Trump in 2024, and its flip portended a disappointing night in 2020 for Democrats.

And it is probably going to a recount in 2026.

Polls are now closed here in TX. Talarico is at 457K and 73.2%, Paxton at 158K and 25.4%.

Moskowitz reelected in a district that the Republicans gerrymandered.

Talarico up 13 points over Harris’ numbers in Dallas County from '24 with 70% of the vote in.

That’s huge.