VA senate seat: Looks like Webb is toast to me

Great Debates
81

[QUOTE=Martin Hyde]
He wasn’t there specifically to meet members of the CCC, and simply had a photo-op with them. Furthermore, the CPAC no longer to my knowledge invites the CCC, and from all accounts I don’t think there’s any reasonable proof CPAC was materially aware of some of the darker sides to the CCC until after the 1998 controversy.
[/QUOTE]

But the CPAC should have been aware of the darker side to the CCC. They didn’t make any secret of it. The CCC had publically expressed racist and anti-semitic attitudes for some time. And the head of the CCC, who’s in the photo with Allen says that Allen knew what they stood for when he took the photo op, a photo op that, by all accounts, he requested, and which he knew would appear in CCC publications. Combine that with his opposition to Martin Luther King Day and the Civil Rights Act of 1991, and it makes you wonder if Allen, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and saying he’s not racist, isn’t afraid to pretend to be to get votes.

82

I think it’s usually futile, these days, to argue about whether someone is a racist or not. It’s just not acceptable public behavior, and there are few people who are so blatant as to be obviously racist. Rather, we can ask if a certain action is racist or not, and in Allen’s case, with the Macaca thing, the scales tip decidedly to “racist”. Even if he didn’t know the precise meaning of the term, it’s unlikely he would’ve used it with someone who was White.

83

Say, has this flap about Webb’s novel actually cost him any points in the polls yet? Does anybody know?

84

[QUOTE=Captain Amazing]
But the CPAC should have been aware of the darker side to the CCC. They didn’t make any secret of it. The CCC had publically expressed racist and anti-semitic attitudes for some time. And the head of the CCC, who’s in the photo with Allen says that Allen knew what they stood for when he took the photo op, a photo op that, by all accounts, he requested, and which he knew would appear in CCC publications. Combine that with his opposition to Martin Luther King Day and the Civil Rights Act of 1991, and it makes you wonder if Allen, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and saying he’s not racist, isn’t afraid to pretend to be to get votes.
[/QUOTE]

Maybe the CPAC should have, but it’s a little unrealistic to expect every person who visits the CPAC to know the policies of every group that is invited.

Allen’s opposition to Virginia’s state MLK day was on the basis that it conflicted with an already existing holiday (Lee-Jackson Day) and at the time in Virginia many Virginians opposed combining the two holidays. To combine the two in my mind cheapens both the holiday designed to celebrate Lee and Jackson and the holiday designed to celebrate King.

The Civil Rights Act of 1991 was opposed in almost the exact same form the year prior in 1990 when President Bush vetoed it. Most of the arguments at the time focused on the issue of the new act allowing persons suing their former employer’s to receive more than just back wages but also emotional and punitive damages. Personally I’m not a big fan of run away punitive and emotional damages myself, and for that reason opposed that particular aspect of the Act.

Furthermore the Civil Rights Act of 1991 was primarily an act designed to modify how lawsuits concerning employment discrimination was conducted and was not the sort of legislation (such as the Civil Rights Act of 1964) in which people opposed it out of racist sympathies.

85

[QUOTE=BrainGlutton]
Say, has this flap about Webb’s novel actually cost him any points in the polls yet? Does anybody know?
[/QUOTE]

Not sure. I think the race is too close to call with different polls taken in the last few days show different leaders, all within the margin of error.

The most recent Zogby poll I’m aware of (which is a bit dated) shows Allen ahead 49.7% to 46.7.

The 10/23 Mason-Dixon poll showed Allen ahead 47% to 43%.

The 10/25 SurveyUSA poll shows Allen ahead 49% to 46%.

The 10/27 Rasmussen poll showed Allen ahead 49% to 48%.

The 10/29 Rasmussen poll showed Webb ahead 51% to 46%.

86

[QUOTE=Martin Hyde]
…Most of the arguments at the time focused on the issue of the new act allowing persons suing their former employer’s to receive more than just back wages but also emotional and punitive damages. Personally I’m not a big fan of run away punitive and emotional damages myself, and for that reason opposed that particular aspect of the Act…
[/QUOTE]

I’m not a fan of “runaway” punitive damages either, a modifier that carries more disapproval than definition. I don’t want a corporation that has condoned racist practices to be punished any more than is just, which would be enough to ensure that they would never, ever even dream of doing such a thing again. Say, roughly ten times the salary of the CEO for that year. Sounds a bit lenient, I know, but still…

But no punitive damages? Impossible. Why shouldn’t Greed E. McFlintheart screw Joe Minority out of $800 when a)Joe can’t afford a lawyer and even if he did, b) he wouldn’t get any more than the actual wages? If the only consequence is being forced to cough up what he should have coughed in the first place, what, besides his enduring virtue, is to prevent him? Its a win/no loss situation. And that blows, class struggle wise.

87

Zogby has Webb up now, by four points, though it’s one of those skeesy “interactive polls.”

That makes three indepedent polls confirming the DCCC poll having Webb up (Ras, CNN, and Zogby). If anything, it look like Allen found hi “Hitler ad”: a way to shoot himself in the foot in desperation that seems to have backfired.

88

[QUOTE=Martin Hyde]
So? There’s lots of reasons lots of people would lie.
[/quote]

All these different people, most of them whom have never met, almost all of them who seem to have come forward on their own, based on what they read in the news about what Allen said, and some of them having backup witnesses that confirm that their stories were not recent inventions.

Here’s a smattering. Nothing conclusive on its own, but it paints a pretty darn clear picture…

-Allen wrote racial slurs on his high school and was suspended for it. A lot worse stories have been told, including his possession of a baseball bat he called his “n***er knocker” He was described by his sister as being sadist and a bully
-Allen, a Cali golden boy, somehow latched onto the Confederate flag as his favorite symbol, plastering it on his truck, wearing it as a lapel pin, and keeping Confederate flags in his home
-countless witnesses attesting to his causal and repeated use of the n word, the deer head story (which pretty much even you have to admit happened: three different people confirm that they were told about it back when it happened). Larry Sabato, no small fry, staked his professional reputation on people he says he trusts telling him their story.
-the “noose” he had hanging from a tree in his law office. He later tried to claim it was “more of a lasso” but everyone remembers him and his staff joking about how it was a noose.
-Allen’s opposition to MLK day is not simply about Lee/Jackson, but also that he doesn’t think a non-Virginian should be honored. He did, however, see fit to honor the passing of William Munford Tuck, a man he once apparently supported politically, and who was famous for opposing pretty much every piece of Civil Rights legislation and declaring “massive resistence” to Civil Rights in general.
-Allen meets with the CCC, perhaps unwittingly. But then, as Governor, he appoints one of their members to his administration, also perhaps unwittingly?. He removes the only black member of UVA’s Board of Visitors and replaces him with a white man. He issues a declaration celebrating the Civil War as the “four-year struggle for independence and sovereign rights” with no mention of slavery or any other such context.
-macaca

Again, you seem to completely ignore the fact that if he’s lying, he’s lying today. To the public. That certainly does matter.

With your standard of proof, nothing short of videotape is good enough. I have to say that that’s pretty darn careful stretching to avoid the obvious.

89

The polls I’ve seen most recently are very close, so I’m not sure this latest foolishness has hurt Webb.

In fact, at my house, and in my parent’s house, it has helped him. Previous to this, my folks and I had not made up our minds whom to vote for. Allen has always seemed like a creepy bastard to me and my mom, and my dad is convinced (based on the macaca kerfuffle) that he is an idiot. And we all three find him to be a lot more socially conservative than we like.

Webb, on the other hand, although he seems like a nicer, smarter man than Allen, is a good deal more fiscally liberal than we like.

So we’ve been in a bit of a pickle. Neither candidate is a perfect fit, so which should we choose? This latest nonsense made up our minds for us. I haven’t read Webb’s novels (although Dad thinks he may have read one years ago), but they are works of fiction. I have read Webb’s latest book, Born Fighting, which was non-fiction and was at least partly responsible for my general feelings of respect and affection for him. I liked the book and I liked the author. I didn’t feel, until the other day, that was enough of a reason to vote for him.

End story – at my house, at least, Allen has shot himself in the nuts with this nonsense.

You may have noticed that I didn’t mention my husband – he hasn’t completely decided against Allen yet. Kevin is, generally, more conservative than my folks and I. He almost always votes Republican as a result. Mom, Dad, and I tend to vote all over the ticket, depending on the individuals. Anyway, Kevin is pretty disgusted with the latest, and is actually leaning towards Webb, whom he also liked as a Secretary of the Navy. However, his mind isn’t yet completely made up.

90

I’m a little annoyed that Webb’s ad campaign isn’t trumpeting Webb’s appointment to Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan in every commercial. A lot of conservatives still deify Reagan and that may be all that people like Jess’ husband needs to hear.

91

I think, in many ways, Democrats are going to be a little surprised to find that Webb in fact, is not as liberal as Allen has been painting him. There have been a number of articles on this topic: while Allen of course can just throw up a picture of Webb and John Kerry talking and stumping together, Webb’s actual list of policies is pretty middle of the road. This is actually a pretty common pattern in Virginia. Mark Warner, for instance, was painted as being pretty much the most liberal person in the country when he was running… somehow that didn’t quite pan out. I think crying wolf has like that has hurt the credibility of many Republican attacks in Virginia. It certainly backfired on them with Tim Kaine, who really IS more liberal than many Virginia Dems, yet still wasn’t as liberal as all the screaming screeching ads declared.

92

[QUOTE=Apos]
I think, in many ways, Democrats are going to be a little surprised to find that Webb in fact, is not as liberal as Allen has been painting him. There have been a number of articles on this topic: while Allen of course can just throw up a picture of Webb and John Kerry talking and stumping together, Webb’s actual list of policies is pretty middle of the road. This is actually a pretty common pattern in Virginia.
[/QUOTE]

Not just Virginia. Look at Casey in PA and Ford in TN. Those guys could easily be Republicans, except for one thing: their stance on the Iraq War. I saw some talking head on (I think) Hardball yesterday call Webb a “Buchanan Republican” mainly because of his view on immigration. I don’t know if that was complete exageration, or not, but the MoveOn.org and NetRoots folks are not what is driving the Democratic gains-- they are coming from Democrats who largely mirror their Republican rivals except that they are agaisnt the Iraq War (now). In RI, if the Dems win, they won’t get all that much since Chaffe has been anti-war, anti-Alito, and anti-Bush. And Liberman looks like a lock in CT.

I believe this is echoed in the Hose races, but I will admit that I don’t follow them very closely. Sure, it’s great to get a majority, but I wonder how the policy agenda of the Democrats will be shaped by an infusion of fairly conservative members in their ranks.

93

Despite the thread title, in this thread we seem to have reached a consensus that Allen’s macaca comments (and other things indicating racism) will hurt him in the election, while the flap over Webb’s novel will not hurt his vote total significantly.

Of course, Allen could still win it anyway. Just by a smaller margin than if his alleged racism had never become an issue.

Does anybody, in particular What the … !!!, see any reason to disagree with any part of the above?

94

According to TPM Cafe’s poll tracker, here are the seven most recent polls in the race:



VA-SEN	Rasmussen	Oct 31	Webb (D) 51%, Allen (R) 46%
VA-SEN	Zogby Int.	Oct 31	Webb (D) 51%, Allen (R) 47%
VA-SEN	CNN	        Oct 30	Webb (D) 50%, Allen (R) 46%
VA-SEN	GHY (D)	        Oct 30	Webb (D) 47%, Allen (R) 43%
VA-SEN	Rasmussen	Oct 27	Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 48%
VA-SEN	SurveyUSA	Oct. 25	Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 46%
VA-SEN	L.A. Times	Oct 24	Webb (D) 47%, Allen (R) 44%

Between mid-August and the L.A. Times poll, almost every poll taken of the race (and there were a lot of polls) showed Allen ahead by 3-7%.

Seems like there’s been a bit of a shift in voter sentiment lately. Allen’s in trouble. Gotta admit I never figured on this race going Dem, but it’s starting to look like it might happen.

95

[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
Seems like there’s been a bit of a shift in voter sentiment lately. Allen’s in trouble. Gotta admit I never figured on this race going Dem, but it’s starting to look like it might happen.
[/QUOTE]

Yeah. Whoever has the big mo at this point is probably going to win. I’m really surprised!

96

[QUOTE=John Mace]

I believe this is echoed in the Hose races, but I will admit that I don’t follow them very closely.
[/QUOTE]

You should. Hose races are a lot of fun.

97

It is truly astounding in the sense that this was never meant to be a close race in the first place. It was supposed to be Allen’s easy glide towards the White House. Instead, those aspirations are likely crippled and he’s sailing towards a possible upset.

Amusingly, if Allen does still try to run for President, I have a feeling everyone on the Republican side who has been making apologies for n words and macacas are going to suddenly find those things a lot more credible when it’s Allen vs. their own personal pony in the primary.

98

And just in time to seal the deal, three Allen campaign thugs beat up an Allen constituent with Allen standing nearby.

WaPo story, video, and still photos of the incident.

From the WaPo story:

What the WaPo doesn’t say, but what is clear from the video, is that Stark didn’t yell out the question about Allen’s first wife until he was already in the midst of being manhandled and thrown about by two Allen thugs.

I’m racking my brain to think of other candidates with a talent for self-destruction on the same remarkable plane as Allen has demonstrated in the past three months. Yeah, sure, there’s Gary Hart and Ed Muskie, but in each of their cases, we’re talking one bad moment. Allen just keeps on following up one disaster with another, from the Macaca moment to the present. I expect he’ll shortly have all the time in the world to run for President, but nobody’s gonna vote for him now.

99

[QUOTE=Martin Hyde]
I do not feel using a racial slur makes one a racist.
[/QUOTE]
What *does * it make one, then? Something you want making policy decisions about our society’s laws?

100

You got a cite for that because that’s not how its being sold in the DC area, its being sold as a whacko asking insulting questions about Allen’s wife until finally someone got pissed off enough to deck the guy.