Wait 'Til Next Year - or - You're Your NFL Team's GM!

[EllisDee]

My first round of googling has only turned up opinions on the current state of affairs, but I’m finding it fascinating. Tell me when the hijack gets annoying. First came the official party line propaganda, from NFL.com.

Trades of the Year: (scroll down)

The Los Angeles Clippers traded the No. 2 pick in the NBA draft, plus a player, to Charlotte for the No. 4 pick. Got that? They gave up a player in order to move down. Phoenix traded a No. 1 pick in exchange for Charlotte’s agreement to take a player from the Suns during the expansion draft. Got that? They gave up a No. 1 and a player in return for nothing. […]

What’s going on here is the NBA guaranteed contract. Almost all NBA contracts are guaranteed, and when you’ve got an overpaid, underperforming player moldering on the salary cap with a guaranteed contract, the only fix is to find someone who will take him in trade, placing his numbers on the new team’s books. But if you want some other team to haul away your trash in salary-cap terms, you’ve got to make it worth that team’s while. So Phoenix and the Clippers gave up something to get nothing – nothing being preferable to having bad players with guaranteed contract. New Jersey gave up something for nothing in order to avoid having to sign a No. 1 choice and become stuck with another guaranteed contract.

Why this matters to football is that fully guaranteed contracts are unknown in the NFL, and let’s pray it stays that way. Fans, including TMQ, get upset when the lack of contract guarantees means accomplished NFL veterans are released during salary-cap purges. But always bear in mind, the cold-blooded this-is-business aspect of the non-guaranteed NFL contract is a central reason NFL games are consistently high-quality – players know every down matters to whether they keep their jobs. Over in the NBA, many games are monotonous exhibitions of me-first strutting because gentlemen with guaranteed contracts are paid the same regardless of how poorly or selfishly they perform. Oh ye football gods, don’t ever let the guaranteed contract come to the NFL.

For a decent synopsis of what the NFLPA cashed in its leverage for in the new CBA, see Before counting cash, take crash course on new CBA.

One of the interesting tidbits is that teams are now more restricted in how they are allowed to go after signing bonus money, ala Ricky Williams. (One would assume Kellen Winslow, Jr. is SOL because he put his dumb ass on a motorcycle in violation of his contract.)

Another interesting point is that you basically cannot franchise the same player a third time. Also, minimum salaries went up across the board.

From here we move on to a more objective review, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal. Football’s All-$tar Team:

[Last] year, according to the NFL Players Association, more than 50% of the money paid to its members [was] “guaranteed” in one form or another, a significant increase since 1999.

Moreover, at a time when other pro athletes are accepting tougher limits on compensation in the form of revenue sharing, luxury taxes or, in the case of the National Hockey League, a 24% salary rollback, the gains made by NFL players are no small victory.

Finally, here’s some propaganda, from the NFLPA side of things. If you open the link, scroll down to this section and then open the very small pdf for an interesting read. A New Look At Guaranteed Contracts In The NFL:

Conventional wisdom has always held that unlike their counterparts in baseball, basketball and hockey, very few–if any–NFL players are able to get guaranteed contracts. New research now shows under the current system that not only is half of all NFL player salary guaranteed, but also that many players actually have contract guarantees.

A couple final points. Contracts were never guaranteed in the NFL. Prior to the free agency era, it seems that most contracts were year by year, with virtually no guaranteed money. Since free agency, half of all money has become guaranteed.

I suppose one could argue that the NFLPA is weak, but certainly not the weakest. The NHLPA clearly wins that title.

In conclusion, the answer to [post=7182184]this post[/post] is “never”.

[EllisDee]

This thread is fucked. It says there are 3 pages, but clicking page 3 brings me to page 2. And the front page shows 95 posts, meaning there should be only 2 pages, but of course I can see post #100 from inside the thread.

I just made an overly-long cite-filled post that seems to be buried on the phantom page 3. So I’m posting this in hopes of jarring something loose.

I have the long post saved in notepad, so I’ll retry it if I absolutely must, but I’d really rather not.

[HubZilla]

@Least Original User Name Ever

outside of money, i don’t know.

i don’t know if indy could have paid james that kind of scratch, but certainly comparable scratch, no? indy has more pieces in place to contend, and if it’s contending that he wanted, then he should have stayed, right? then again, so should have david givens. but who in the hell knows anymore.

I dunno, I’m having a hard time reconciling this with “this is a team game and winning is the most important thing”. Especially as extreme a difference between the Colts and the Cards.

[Omniscient]

Couple quick quotes from Wiki for Ellis Dee.

In this article is says.

The National Football League Players’ Association, or NFLPA, is the labor union of players in football’s National Football League. It was founded in 1956, but only achieved recognition and a collective bargaining agreement several years later. After a lost strike in 1987, the union was formally decertified, converting into a professional association in order to pursue antitrust litigation designed to win free agency for its members. When that tactic worked it reformed as a union and resumed collective bargaining with the league in 1993.

And in discussion of the 87 strike it says:

The players ultimately prevailed, after a jury trial on their claims, in that action. That verdict, the pendency of other antitrust cases and the threat of a class action filed by Reggie White, then with the Philadelphia Eagles, on behalf of all NFL players brought the parties back to the negotiating table. They finally agreed on a formula that permitted free agency in return for salary caps tied to a formula based on players’ share of total league revenues.

So essentially it looks like the 1987 strike and the subsequent lawsuits resulted in a compromise which netted players free agency and the owners a salary cap. The time line of that is undetermined though it seems those lawsuits must have taken several years because all other cites I can find refer back to 1993 as the start or free agency and the salary cap.

Here’s and interesting PDF from the NFLPA website that discusses guaranteed contracts and free agency since 1993. It also illustrates who players compensation has increased as a result of that 1993 deal.
Nothing definitive, but interesting nonetheless.

[Omniscient]

Yeah, the thread is messed up. I’m going to make a few posts to see if getting the reply count over a 100 helps fix things. Chances are it’ll just get F-ed up when it gets close to 150 replies again.

I’ll try and rewite some of the lost posts, each in it’s own post since I’m gunshy now.

Some of the big moves and my thoughts:

Daunte Culpepper goes to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a 2nd rounder. This caught me by surprise because I thought the Raiders were practically a sure thing. Culpepper would have provided that vertical passing game that gives Al Davis a stiffy. I figured the chance to recreate that Randy Ratio would be too enticing for Oakland. I have no idea how much say Culpepper had in the situation, but Miami certainly is a better fit for him. Experts have accused Culpepper of being a product of Randy Moss as evidenced by last season’s pig of a season. Well, we will probably never know since a subsequent crappy season might be a result of the new system or the bum knee. I’m optomistic though, having Chambers, while no Moss, is a hell of a first option and he’s only getting better right now. Having Ronnie Brown in the backfield, assiming he can pick up a blitz, will be the perfect compliment. As a Bears fan I’m glad to see him out of the division anyways.

[Omniscient]

Drew Brees goes to the New Orleans Saints for 6 years and $60 million. I like this move. People have been killing the Saints for this, but I think it’s bullshit. Of course if Brees’ arm is totally ruined, then it’s a bad move, but I’m going to give everyone the benefit of the doubt on that part. The Saints have some great weapons on offense, most notably Joe horn and Duece McAllister. By drafting Leinart, who is not a sure thing, they are essentially going to have to wait 3 seasons to see him reach Brees’ level. By then Deuce will be gone, and Horn will be over the hill. If they strike now, and Brees is consistent and accurate like he was in San Diego, this offense could be more productive than it ever was under Aaron Brooks. Going with Brees is the smart move. Especially since it opens up the opportunity to draft Ferguson or Marco Williams or better yet trade down for more picks it’s really a good move as I see it.

Of course if Brees is the second coming of Pennington after this injury all this is moot. The other alternative for the Saints, and one I have no doubt they’ll threaten to leverage a draft day trade, is to still draft Leinart and have him apprentice under Brees. It’d be Brees’ worst nightmare after the Rivers situation, but you can’t argue that it turned out badly for the Chargers. Brees was pressured to play over his head and Rivers apparently developed pretty well in that role. If they treat this Brees deal as a 2-year throw-away contract until Leinart is ready to take the Cason Palmer route it might be worthwhile. Interesting scenario and it should scare the Jets enough strongly consider trading up (allowing the Saints to take Ferguson).

It probably puts an additional dynamic on tap for the Houston Texans too. Knowing that the Saints are in a similar position to them, realistically able to pass on any of the top 5 skill position guys, there could be a bidding war for draft trading. If you’re the Jets and you desperately want Young ot Leinart, you can negotiate a trade with either the Texans or the Saints. That Brees move could have tons of draft day impact.

[Omniscient]

So, Keyshawn gets released by the Dallas Cowboys and T.O gets released by the Philadelphia Eagles. Everyone seems to think this is a clear indication that T.O. is in the cards for the Cowboys future. I have no doubts that Jerry Jones is willing to make the move and I have no doubt that Parcells thinks he can reign him in. I’m not ready to consider it a sure thing yet though. Couple points I’ve heard the experts make: The Cowboys probably would have cut Keyshawn regardless, they have to cut him to make room for TO of course, but he was due a bonus and cutting them saves them some cash. They can still resign him under a new deal, and if TO goes elsewhere they probably will. The two items may not be linked. Additionally, Rosenhaus is expected to move very slowly on this. Expecting a longer process to draw in more bidders and drive up prices. When teams see how free agency shakes out, especially the Broncos and the quiet Falcons, TOs stock could rise and the Cowboys will be less of a sure thing.

[Omniscient]

Edge James is headed to the Arizona Cardinals and a big chunk of change. Edge was quoted as comparing this move to a poker player paying to see the river. Um, Ok. Do you think it actually has anything to do with getting paid in a big way regardless of the opportunity to win?

Still, I’m not ready to count the Cards out here. With a healthy and motivated Edge, Kurt Warner and a studly WR crew this offense could be flat out scary. If they add a guy like Cutler to back-up Warner this year it could be a really formidible crew in the marshmellow soft NFC West. They need some depth, especially on defense and help at the offensive line, but they could address that in the draft. My dream scenario has them trading down with the Bears for extra picks or a defensive player (allowing the Bears to nab Vernon Davis) but that’s my own little pet project. Realistically, the most likely scenario is more of the same. Denny Green will probably ignore the defense and while the offense will be dangerous, lack of protection will lead to injuries and a inconsistent running game.

At least Edge will be able to work on his golf game.

[Omniscient]

So the Bears have been frighteningly quiet in the off-season so far. There’s been over 60 FA moves in the last 5 days and not a one involving the Bears. They missed out on Randle el and Archuleta to the Redskins and haven’t even resigned Hillenmeyer or Azumah. It’s freaking me out.

It’s not clear to me if these early movers are the smart one or if it’s wiser to wait and see how things shake out. Which cliche do you like, the one about the early bird or the one about caution and valor? The big spenders (I’m looking your way Washington and Cleveland) so far have made some splashes with bigger names, but it’ll be interesting to see if they get value for their dollars.

I really hope they know what they are doing up in Halas Hall, but I’m not a fan of being proactive instead of reactive. Lets hope this leads to a dynamic draft day involving a certain stud TE.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

@Omniscient

Yeah, the thread is messed up. I’m going to make a few posts to see if getting the reply count over a 100 helps fix things. Chances are it’ll just get F-ed up when it gets close to 150 replies again.

I’ll try and rewite some of the lost posts, each in it’s own post since I’m gunshy now.

Some of the big moves and my thoughts:

Daunte Culpepper goes to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a 2nd rounder. This caught me by surprise because I thought the Raiders were practically a sure thing. Culpepper would have provided that vertical passing game that gives Al Davis a stiffy. I figured the chance to recreate that Randy Ratio would be too enticing for Oakland. I have no idea how much say Culpepper had in the situation, but Miami certainly is a better fit for him. Experts have accused Culpepper of being a product of Randy Moss as evidenced by last season’s pig of a season. Well, we will probably never know since a subsequent crappy season might be a result of the new system or the bum knee. I’m optomistic though, having Chambers, while no Moss, is a hell of a first option and he’s only getting better right now. Having Ronnie Brown in the backfield, assiming he can pick up a blitz, will be the perfect compliment. As a Bears fan I’m glad to see him out of the division anyways.

if you were to trade for culpepper before last year started, it’d have taken multiple number one picks to get him from the vikings. i think he’ll fit very nicely in miami. he’s home, and he’s got chris chambers (who is an absolute beast…who knew that a second rounder from wisconsin would blossom like this??) david boston, who i remembre fondly when the wolverines beat ohio state in um…'97? and randy mcmichael…who’s rather underrated. anywhoot, miami is looking good right about now. great value, great everything. you pats fans should start sweating right about now.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

@Omniscient

Drew Brees goes to the New Orleans Saints for 6 years and $60 million. I like this move. People have been killing the Saints for this, but I think it’s bullshit. Of course if Brees’ arm is totally ruined, then it’s a bad move, but I’m going to give everyone the benefit of the doubt on that part. The Saints have some great weapons on offense, most notably Joe horn and Duece McAllister. By drafting Leinart, who is not a sure thing, they are essentially going to have to wait 3 seasons to see him reach Brees’ level. By then Deuce will be gone, and Horn will be over the hill. If they strike now, and Brees is consistent and accurate like he was in San Diego, this offense could be more productive than it ever was under Aaron Brooks. Going with Brees is the smart move. Especially since it opens up the opportunity to draft Ferguson or Marco Williams or better yet trade down for more picks it’s really a good move as I see it.

Of course if Brees is the second coming of Pennington after this injury all this is moot. The other alternative for the Saints, and one I have no doubt they’ll threaten to leverage a draft day trade, is to still draft Leinart and have him apprentice under Brees. It’d be Brees’ worst nightmare after the Rivers situation, but you can’t argue that it turned out badly for the Chargers. Brees was pressured to play over his head and Rivers apparently developed pretty well in that role. If they treat this Brees deal as a 2-year throw-away contract until Leinart is ready to take the Cason Palmer route it might be worthwhile. Interesting scenario and it should scare the Jets enough strongly consider trading up (allowing the Saints to take Ferguson).

It probably puts an additional dynamic on tap for the Houston Texans too. Knowing that the Saints are in a similar position to them, realistically able to pass on any of the top 5 skill position guys, there could be a bidding war for draft trading. If you’re the Jets and you desperately want Young ot Leinart, you can negotiate a trade with either the Texans or the Saints. That Brees move could have tons of draft day impact.

i agree with just about everything you said. this pickup really will have some weird ramifications. the draft will be more interesting just because of this trade. the saints STILL have the second overall pick, and now they’ve got their quarterback situation “solved”. what i think you’re going to see…is the saints drafting leinart and then trading his rights away soon after that. that will give them the ultimate leverage over the jets, who, like their counterparts in new york, will pay any amazing, god awful price. on second thought, people in new york have a giant (no pun intended) boner over vince young. that could be the pick to hang over the jets’ head. they’ll bite on that just to get the publicity from the giants.

by the way, i forgot to add this to the last post…but yeah, i’m happy culpepper is out f the division. not as happy as i was at seeing randy leave (he loved to feast on lion), but still rather happy nonetheless.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

@Omniscient

So the Bears have been frighteningly quiet in the off-season so far. There’s been over 60 FA moves in the last 5 days and not a one involving the Bears. They missed out on Randle el and Archuleta to the Redskins and haven’t even resigned Hillenmeyer or Azumah. It’s freaking me out.

It’s not clear to me if these early movers are the smart one or if it’s wiser to wait and see how things shake out. Which cliche do you like, the one about the early bird or the one about caution and valor? The big spenders (I’m looking your way Washington and Cleveland) so far have made some splashes with bigger names, but it’ll be interesting to see if they get value for their dollars.

I really hope they know what they are doing up in Halas Hall, but I’m not a fan of being proactive instead of reactive. Lets hope this leads to a dynamic draft day involving a certain stud TE.

which one? the one from ucla?

the bears need azumah, by the way. as a lion fan, i’m hoping they’ll let him go or defect.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@Least Original User Name Ever

which one? the one from ucla?

Judging by the Bears’ draft slot, I’m guessing Pope.

[Omniscient]

L.O.U.N.E., capitalization please. I’m begging you.

I was refering to my man-crush on Vernon Davis out of Maryland as the TE. I have nothing against Azumah, but he’s developing a Walt Harrisesque tendancy to get toasted because he tries for the big play. He doesn’t tackle well enough for this defensive scheme and can’t play the safety position because of issue in run support. I’d like them to keep him if they can’t upgrade him. Charles Woodson would be a upgrade, and a head case of course. Azumah has lost a step and can’t hang with those fastest guys either…something we desperately need. Azumah is fine, but we need better to get into the Super Bowl.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Omni, you wouldn’t be worried about a good team trading waaayyy up to get a tight end that can’t really catch the ball that well?

[Omniscient]

Nope. From all the clips I’ve seen of this guy and watching his workouts, the guy never dropped a ball and gives a 110% every time out. Compared to DeAngelo Williams it’s like night and day. He’s a freakish athlete with prototype size. I’m convinced he’s the next Antonio Gates with better blocking skills.

I might be wrong, and I’m not saying the Bears should reinvent the Hershel Walker trade to move up for him, but I want them to strongly consider making a package to get themselves into that 8-12 pick range to add this guy. He’s the only difference maker in the draft who isn’t a QB or Reggie Bush.

The last time I was this sure of a little known drafteee and frothed at the mouth for him was when LaDanian Tomlinson was about 6 picks ahead of where the Bears were picking.

I’m not sure what the wise package would be here to go from the 26th slot up to say the 9th, someone probably has the value chart, but I wouldn’t be opposed to giving away a 1st, 2nd and 4th rounder to ensure they get him. The big bump in cap space would allow them to fill the gaps left by those draft picks in free agency.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Huh. Looking around, it appears I’m the only person in the world who doesn’t think Davis has very good hands. That’s peculiar, since it’s the one thing I’ve noticed (besides his arms) every time I’ve seen him play – that he doesn’t catch the ball that cleanly. Very well.

[Osip]

I like free agency so far for the Cards.

RB: Edge: A quality runner and can catch out of the backfield. A RB in the mold of Faulk. Warner will have a nice dump off option when the WR wonder twins are covered. Arlington should improve with someone of Edges ability ahead of him.

O-line Brown coming over from the Texans is a nice start. Depth was a large reason for last years crap show. Injuries in training camp hurt. Stepanovich had a good rookie year at center, and last year was hampered by injuries. If I recall, in training camp due to injuries they never had all the starters line up together.
With the new O-line coach I expect better results and in turn some respectability in the running game.

WR: Boldin and Fitz are to Hot pass catchers. With 7 years in the league between the two I am hoping this duo sticks around.

QB: Warner, I like, still accurate and did a damn fine job considering how stacked against him most games were. He tends to miss games each season due to injuries. I am not impressed with his current backup. If I were GM I would pick up someone if Josh cannot be brought back home. Laugh now. But I think Couch would be a good fit, since his year off recovering from injuries he should be ready to go and able to fill in nice for a game or two.

TE: Gah not to much to say here. V Davis in the draft would be nice. Actually any warm body who can run block and pass protect would be good, nice hands would be a bonus.

Defense:

DL: Like the Defensive Ends well enough Tackles are a problem. Dockett is not big enough to be effective to play consistent basis in the middle. I could see Dockett, taking a slot in the DT and DE rotations. Russell Davis back would be a help and the signing of Clancy will help as well.

LB: I like the LB group. Young but improving not spectacular but not speed bumps either.

DB: Mostly a young unit with very little depth.

In Free agency I expect hitting for depth on the O-line D-line and DBs.

Draft is a crap shoot. It all depends on who is where at the 10 spot. They could use just about anything in the first round except RB and WR.

I have to say, This is a better team than we have had in many many years. In a weak NFC West anything is possible.

Osip

[Omniscient]

I’ll send you a DT in exchange for swapping picks. You can still get a warm body at TE and I get Vernon Davis.

Who knew there were Cards fans?

[Hostile_Dialect]

Keep Drew. Keep Rivers. Heal Drew. Give Rivers lots and lots and lots and lots of practice snaps. Start Drew. Have Rivers ready for an emergency; play him in blowouts if Drew stays healthy.