Week 13 CFB -- Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?

Normally I don’t play. But the Oregon Ducks fair weather fan club is is one of the worst around. So I just stand on principle and vote against them. Ohio State I can never support. If Baylor goes on to lose, that one was just plain luck.

MIZ!

Ole Miss going to lose both the game and the party.

Here’s how we ended up:



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No. 7 Clemson 52,           Citadel 6
No. 1 Alabama 49,           Chattanooga 0
No. 3 Ohio State 42,        Indiana 14
Arizona 42,                 No. 5 Oregon 16
No. 22 LSU 34,              No. 12 Texas A&M 10
No. 9 Stanford 63,          California 13
No. 2 Florida State 80,     Idaho 14
No. 8 Missouri 24,          No. 24 Ole Miss 10
No. 10 Oklahoma State 49,   No. 4 Baylor 17

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                       Baylor  Oregon  Texas A&M  
                       ========================= 

Duckster          3/6  Baylor  Oregon  Texas A&M 

astorian          2/2  Baylor          Texas A&M
Death of Rats     2/2  Baylor          Texas A&M
Snowboarder Bo    2/2  Baylor          Texas A&M 
 
armedmonkey       2/3  Baylor          Texas A&M
Nauplius          2/3  Baylor          Texas A&M 
Oakminster        2/3  Baylor          Texas A&M
Wolverine         2/3  Baylor          Texas A&M 

RetroVertigo      1/1  Baylor

R. P. McMurphy    1/2                  Texas A&M
Zakalwe          1/(2)                (Texas A&M)
Zeldar            1/2                  Texas A&M

MadTheSwine       1/3                  Texas A&M

Munch             0/1                  
Oredigger77       0/1                  

=======================  ================================ 
    15           22/36    9       1       (12)   22/36   

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Shouldn’t anyone that missed Oregon losing (everyone except Duckster) have it counted as a missed pick as well? i.e. I should be 2/4 not 2/3.

Interesting point. We’d have to go back to the Week 5 scores to make it right for armedmonkey’s scoring.

Maybe next year we can be more particular about that. The way the polls work, it would take some manual adjusting, I think. Every game would have to be marked (for the Top Ten teams anyway) as a W or an L. And everybody would have to make their votes on that basis.

Maybe we can come up with a better approach. Ideas?

Hey now, my scoring system may be imperfect and cobbled together on the fly, but it still makes more sense than the BCS. :wink:

End of week 13 totals. Cumulative scoring. 1pt awarded for each correct pick. 1/2 pt deducted for each incorrect pick

7.5 pts: ** Oakminster **

7 pts: **Wolverine **

6.5 pts: <<<vacant>>>

6 pts: armedmonkey

5.5 pts: astorian, Zakalwe

5 pts: Munch, R.P. Murphy, Snowboarder Bo

4.5 pts: <<<vacant>>>

4 pts: death of rats

3.5 pts: **Zeldar **

3 ps: Labrador Deceiver, LuckyNumber85, Oredigger77, Sterling Archer

2.5 pts **markdash, RetroVertigo, **

2 pts: bump, yellowjacketcoder, willia4

1.5 pts: ** jsc1953, Rucksinator**

1 pt: BigAppleBucky, Chargerrich, Duckster, Fred Garvin, janeslogin, Jimmy Chitwood, Naupilus, Omar Little, Really Not All That Bright, Rex Goliath, Rudiger Simpson, The Universe Lashes Out, zoog

0.5 pt: DMC, lieu, nate, tonyfop

0 pts: Accidental Martyr, basset hound, furt, Johnny Bravo, NicorGasMan, Quintas, racer72, skammer, Tazmanian Devil, zamboniracer

-0.5 pts: <<<vacant>>>

-1 pts: BobLibDem

Well, on the plus side, I nailed two upsets that weren’t REALLY huge upsets at all.

But I never saw the Oregon meltdown coming- I expected them to bounce back strong after Stanford.

Just in case others have a serious interest in improving participation, scoring or whatever in these threads on CFB, I’ve collected the bare-bones data of all the ones I started this year.

Maybe a separate thread for discussion? If so, this can be moved there. But until then, enjoy:

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View Poll Results: Week 1 CFB – Who stays in the AP Top Ten?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 16

View Poll Results: Week 2 CFB – Who stays in the AP Top Ten?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 9

View Poll Results: Week 3 CFB – Who stays in the AP Top Ten?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 9

No Poll – CFB Week 4 Top Ten discussion
Total Posts: 8

Zeldar 3
BobLibDem 2
Ike Witt 1
Oakminster 1
Zakalwe 1

View Poll Results: Week 5 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 10

View Poll Results: Week 6 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 15

View Poll Results: Week 7 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 19

View Poll Results: Week 8 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 18

View Poll Results: Week 9 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 21

View Poll Results: Week 10 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 17

View Poll Results: Week 11 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 18

View Poll Results: Week 12 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 20

View Poll Results: Week 12 CFB – Which FBS team(s) will become bowl eligible this week?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 5

View Poll Results: Who takes The College Football Belt away from Baylor?
Voters: 8

View Poll Results: Week 13 CFB – Which AP Top Ten team(s) will lose?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 15

View Poll Results: Week 13 CFB – Which FBS team(s) will become bowl eligible this week?
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 9

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I would suggest the following:

Pick a team to lose and they lose: +1pt
Don’t pick a team to lose and they don’t lose: +.5pt

Pick a team to lose and they don’t lose: -1pt
Don’t pick a team to lose and they lose: -.5pt

The only problem I see with this is where the matchup is T10. It’s a double punishment if you pick the wrong team. Not sure how to resolve that.

I like the spirit of that scoring. If we treat the individual’s slate of picks as x-many losses and y-many wins (with the wins being assumed from the ones not picked) then a simple plus-one point for each correct pick and a minus-one point for each wrong pick should give a net score (plus or minus) that ought to work even when the teams may play one another from the Top Ten.

Simple example:

Team-A beats Team-B (both T10) – Team-C wins – Team-D loses – Team-E wins

Player-A picks A to lose and E to lose (implied: B, C, D to win)

Score for Player-A:

A -1
B -1
C +1
D -1
E -1

Total for Player-A = -3 with the only plus point coming from a non-vote.

Perhaps other scenarios would show a flaw in this approach, but if everybody realizes that a non-pick implies a Win for that team, at least we’d all know how the scoring was going to work. Non-votes would matter then.

More ideas?

One additional major point I should have made and which should be the primary issue:

The fundamental assumption is that by being in the Top Ten a team is expected to WIN. The simplified poll choices are to mark the exceptions to that underlying assumption.

So, don’t pick to LOSE = pick to WIN. Pick correctly, get +1 point; pick wrong, get -1 point.

That’s where the focus should be, IMHO. If we can agree to that basic reasoning, the particulars of scoring ought to be easy enough, I would hope.