Week 3 CFB -- Which AP Top 25 team(s) will lose?

Scoring for this week’s poll is as follows:

  1. Pick a team to Lose and they LOSE – +1 point

  2. Pick a team to Lose and they WIN – -1 point

  3. Fail to pick a Loser in the Georgia - South Carolina game --** -1 point**
    (two Top 25 teams playing – one must lose)

  4. otherwise, no penalty for not picking a Loser

==================================

This week’s schedule of the AP Top 25:



 Top 25 FBS 

 Weeks: 3

Thursday, September 11 

 9:00 PM EDT Houston          @ (25) BYU   

Friday, September 12 

 8:00 PM EDT (8) Baylor       @ Buffalo  

Saturday, September 13 

 8:00 PM EDT Tennessee        @ (4) Oklahoma 
12:00 PM EDT East Carolina    @ (17) Virginia Tech  
12:00 PM EDT UCF              @ (20) Missouri   
12:00 PM EDT Kent St.         @ (22) Ohio St.   
12:30 PM EDT (21) Louisville  @ Virginia  
 2:00 PM EDT Wyoming          @ (2) Oregon 
 3:30 PM EDT (6) Georgia      @ (24) South Carolina  <<<
 4:00 PM EDT La Lafayet.      @ (14) Mississippi  
 5:00 PM EDT Army             @ (15) Stanford   
 6:00 PM EDT Southern Miss    @ (3) Alabama  
 7:00 PM EDT LA Monroe        @ (10) LSU    
 7:30 PM EDT Purdue           @ (11) Notre Dame  
 8:00 PM EDT (9) USC          @ Boston Coll.  
 8:00 PM EDT (12) UCLA        @ Texas   
 9:00 PM EDT Rice             @ (7) Texas A&M  
10:00 PM EDT (16) Arizona St. @ Colorado 


Last week’s thread: Week 2 CFB – Which AP Top 25 team(s) will lose? from 09-02-2014, 02:16 PM

Source data:

===================================



AP Top 25.

 1.Florida St.    (idle)
 2.Oregon  
 3.Alabama  
 4.Oklahoma  
 5.Auburn         (idle)
 6.Georgia  
 7.Texas A&M  
 8.Baylor
 9.USC
10.LSU
11.Notre Dame
12.UCLA
13.Michigan St.   (idle)
14.Mississippi
15.Stanford
16.Arizona St.
17.Virginia Tech
18.Wisconsin      (idle)
19.Kansas St.     (idle)
20.Missouri
21.Louisville
22.Ohio St.
23.Clemson        (idle)
24.South Carolina
25.BYU

View Complete Poll
Sun Sep 7, 2014 


Multiple choice poll on the way…

I must be buying into groupthink, because this seems pretty chalky to me (if I am allowed to borrow a term from basketball).

I’ve encountered the term and its variants in football chatter, so it’s not limited to basketball as far as I can tell.

Even if we don’t insist that voting one’s picks for upsets should follow one’s heart (or seat of pants) it might be fun to have some side bets/guesses as to the most likely games to feature such.

I was just plain lucky picking VT to beat OSU this past weekend, and except for the SEC games I watched, that was the most fun to see. In front of the biggest crowd yet in the Horseshoe, too.

I’ve already picked Tennessee to take The Belt from Oklahoma, so there’s that one anyway. Otherwise, I don’t sense anything “outside the chalk” this week. :slight_smile:

I thought I’d share my effort to locate the most likely games to provide some real battles and otherwise exciting contests.

This is in reverse order of “Most likely to be a battle” and is based on some secret ingredients for that determination. Over and above your “must watch” games (favorite team and such) you might wish to aim at the bottom of this stack for the games most likely to be fun to watch.

Comments and arguments are welcomed. If you want to list your own “must see” games for comparison, have at.



 6:00 PM EDT Southern Miss    @ (3) Alabama              
 7:30 PM EDT Purdue           @ (11) Notre Dame       
 2:00 PM EDT Wyoming          @ (2) Oregon            
12:00 PM EDT Kent St.         @ (22) Ohio St.          
 7:00 PM EDT LA Monroe        @ (10) LSU               
 4:00 PM EDT La Lafayet.      @ (14) Mississippi  
    
 8:00 PM EDT (8) Baylor       @ Buffalo               
 8:00 PM EDT (9) USC          @ Boston Coll.           
 9:00 PM EDT Houston          @ (25) BYU              
12:00 PM EDT East Carolina    @ (17) Virginia Tech   
 9:00 PM EDT Rice             @ (7) Texas A&M           
10:00 PM EDT (16) Arizona St. @ Colorado        
     
 3:30 PM EDT (6) Georgia      @ (24) South Carolina   
 8:00 PM EDT Tennessee        @ (4) Oklahoma          
 5:00 PM EDT Army             @ (15) Stanford          
12:30 PM EDT (21) Louisville  @ Virginia               
 8:00 PM EDT (12) UCLA        @ Texas                  
12:00 PM EDT UCF              @ (20) Missouri         



Another meh week in terms of matchups, other than Georgia-SCar, which is significant, but probably won’t be close. I’ve got SCar as my only loser this week.

Poor Southern Miss. They got stomped by Miss St, picked up a win against somebody…maybe Alcorn St…last week, and now they have to play Bama. Saban could probably start his third string and beat them. His first string is going to kill them.

I’m with you for now, but that UCLA/UT matchup just won’t get out of my head…

Here’s how it’s shaping up after 10 Voters:



===========================================================================================
                                >>>                                                     >>>
                    Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar
                    =======================================================================
armedmonkey     1                                                                      SCar 
BobLibDem       7   Bama              TexA&M LSU NotDam      Missi               Misso SCar
Doctor Who      1                                                                      SCar
Nauplius        1                                                                      SCar
Oakminster      1                                                                      SCar
Oredigger77     2                                                         VaTech       SCar
Sterling Archer 1                                                                      SCar
Zakalwe         1                                                                      SCar
Zeldar          2        Okla Georgia    
Zyanthia        3                                       UCLA       ArizSt              SCar

                    Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar
                    =======================================================================
   10          20    1     1     1       1   1    1     1     1      1      1      1    9  /20
===========================================================================================



Due to the first game involving the Top 25 coming at 9:00 EDT tomorrow night, this poll is closing tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. If you meant to vote, now’s the time! :slight_smile:

deleted

Why bother with #3 if you can choose both Georgia and South Carolina, and you would get +1 for the loser and -1 for the winner?
Perhaps there should also be a -1 penalty for choosing both teams in a single game?

Yes. I obviously overlooked the possibility that you’re better off (0) picking both than picking neither (-1). Maybe astorian has an answer you might like. :slight_smile:

After some additional thought, I propose to alter the scoring (starting next week) to:

  1. Pick a team to LOSE and they LOSE – +1 point

  2. Pick a team to LOSE and they WIN – -1 point

  3. Fail to pick a LOSER in a game involving two Top 25 teams–** -1 point**
    (two Top 25 teams playing – one must lose)

  4. Pick both teams to LOSE in a game involving two Top 25 teams–** -1 point**
    (two Top 25 teams playing – one must lose)

What am I missing now?

Here’s how we voted:



==================================================================================================
                                  >>>                                                     >>>
                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
armedmonkey        1                                                                      SCar 
astorian           1                                                                Misso  
BobLibDem          7   Bama              TexA&M LSU NotDam      Missi               Misso SCar
Doctor Who         1                                                                      SCar
JohnT              3                                NotDam UCLA                           SCar
Labrador Deceiver  1                                                                      SCar
Nauplius           1                                                                      SCar
Oakminster         1                                                                      SCar
Oredigger77        2                                                         VaTech       SCar
Sterling Archer    1                                                                      SCar
Wolverine          2                                                                      SCar BYU
Zakalwe            1                                                                      SCar
Zeldar             2        Okla Georgia    
Zyanthia           3                                       UCLA       ArizSt              SCar

                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
   14             27    1     1     1       1   1     2     2     1      1      1     2    12   1  /27
=================================================================================================


Here are the results:



==================================================================================================
                        W    W     L       W     W    W     W     W     W      L      W    W    W
                                  >>>                                                     >>>
                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
armedmonkey        1                                                                      SCar 
astorian           1                                                                Misso  
BobLibDem          7   Bama              TexA&M LSU NotDam      Missi               Misso SCar
Doctor Who         1                                                                      SCar
JohnT              3                                NotDam UCLA                           SCar
Labrador Deceiver  1                                                                      SCar
Nauplius           1                                                                      SCar
Oakminster         1                                                                      SCar
Oredigger77        2                                                         VaTech       SCar
Sterling Archer    1                                                                      SCar
Wolverine          2                                                                      SCar BYU
Zakalwe            1                                                                      SCar
Zeldar             2        Okla Georgia    
Zyanthia           3                                       UCLA       ArizSt              SCar

                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
   14             27    1     1     1       1   1     2     2     1      1      1     2    12   1  /27
=================================================================================================

==================================================================================================
                        W    W     L       W     W    W     W     W     W      L      W    W    W
                                  >>>                                                     >>>
                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
Oredigger77        2/0                                                         +1          -1 
Zeldar             2/0       -1     +1      

armedmonkey        1/-1                                                                    -1  
Doctor Who         1/-1                                                                    -1 
Labrador Deceiver  1/-1                                                                    -1 
Nauplius           1/-1                                                                    -1 
Oakminster         1/-1                                                                    -1 
Sterling Archer    1/-1                                                                    -1 
Zakalwe            1/-1                                                                    -1 

astorian           1/-2           (-1)                                               -1    ( ) 
Wolverine          2/-2                                                                    -1  -1 

JohnT              3/-3                               -1    -1                             -1 
Zyanthia           3/-3                                     -1          -1                 -1 

BobLibDem          7/-7 -1                 -1    -1   -1         -1                  -1    -1 

                       Bama Okla Georgia TexA&M LSU NotDam UCLA Missi ArizSt VaTech Misso SCar BYU
                       ===========================================================================
   14             27    1     1     1       1   1     2     2     1      1      1     2    12   1  /27
=================================================================================================


Brutal week for me here and in Pick’em. 4 ranked teams went down, and I didn’t get any of those games right.

The SEC East is wide open with the Georgia loss. Should see a lot of movement in the polls this week. Can Ole Miss crack the Top 10? I doubt it, but they keep moving up. How about Miss State? Can they crack the Top 25?

Here are the standings after Week 3:


**Name                          Total   Week 1   Week2   Week 3**
tonyfop                         3       0        3       0
Frosted Glass                   2       2        0       0
Snupzilla                       2       2        0       0
USCDiver                        2       2        0       0
Zakalwe                         2       1        2      -1
doverpro                        1       1        0       0
Mince                           1       1        0       0
Oakminster                      1       4       -2      -1
Really Not All That Bright      1       1        0       0
Snowboarder Bo                  1       1        0       0
basset hound                    0       0        0       0
Nauplius                        0       2       -1      -1
Oredigger77                     0       0        0       0
Wolverine                       0       1        1      -2
armedmonkey                    -1       0        0      -1
Doctor Who                     -1       2       -2      -1
excavating (for a mind)        -1       0       -1       0
jsc1953                        -1      -3        2       0
Labrador Deceiver              -1       0        0      -1
LonghornDave                   -1      -1        0       0
Pai325                         -1      -1        0       0
RetroVertigo                   -1       0       -1       0
Sterling Archer                -1       0        0      -1
The Universe Lashes Out        -1       0       -1       0
Zeldar                         -1       0       -1       0
bump                           -2      -1       -1       0
JohnT                          -3       0        0      -3
astorian                       -4       0       -2      -2
susan                          -4      -4        0       0
Zyanthia                       -4      -1        0      -3
Typo Negative                  -6      -3       -3       0
BobLibDem                     -21      -5       -9      -7