Turkey!
And no, NJ being close is not a myth. Bush is coming here on Monday, and you can be sure it’s not because he thinks we’re going to Kerry running away.
Bush really doesn’t have the appeal in New Jersey to poach it. Plus there’s not a strong enough Republcian base in New Jersey—it’s got more independents than Republicans, and more Democrats than independents. This is a moderate state that will elect a moderate Republican, like Christie Whitman, but Bush is more of the Bret Schundler mold. Bush’s surge in the New Jersey polls was bizarre, but it’s been receding, and will be well out of Bush’s reach by Election Day.
Taking New Jersey would be quite a coup for Bush, and those 15 electoral votes would certainly help him. But even though he’s showing up there in person, it’s not going to make much of a difference. Bush’s stances on abortion and guns won’t play well. Bush’s appearances there are an attempt to distract the Kerry campaign from dicier states. Bush hasn’t been advertising in New Jersey apart from the Philadelphia area, and he hasn’t started a push there. Will Kerry win in New Jersey as big as Al Gore did? I doubt it. But if he pulls fewer than 8 points there on Election Day, I’ll cup my hands and take a drink right out of the Passaic.
Y’all are pikers.
I predicted what, three years ago, that Bush would lose. I backed the entire rest of the field against GWB and I stand by that now.
Kerry in a squeaker. I’ll be mighty surprised if either side passes 290 electoral votes.
This foreigner has consistently put his money on Bush, mainly because the GOP campaign machine is so much better than the Dems. But if I was Bush I would start to get a little worried. Polling 47% nationally with 95% distributed isn’t good enough, he needs at least 49% going into election day (disregard 50-48 polls with Nader at 1%, because there’s no way there’s only 1% undecideds left, it must be more like 4-5%).
Even though Bush’s debate performance wasn’t all bad (except debate #1), Kerry was everything they said he wasn’t. I noticed a CBS poll where the results changed from 29% pre-debate to 60% post-debate on the question whether Kerry had a clear position on issues. That spells trouble for Bush.
EC-wise, Kerry is starting where Gore left off, meaning he has 260 and needs 10 to win. But he has been trailing consistently in Wisconsin since this summer, which could make him lose 10 and put him at 250. Kerry should be able to carry most close Gore-states, like New Mexico, Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, but Gore-state Iowa (7) is a toss-up right now. So Kerry needs Ohio (20), Florida (27) or the combination Wisconsin(10)/Nevada(5)/West Virginia(5). Ohio is a toss-up. Florida is leaning Bush, but is very fluid, while Nevada and West Virginia is Bush’s by 3-6% and is more of a longshot for Kerry as long as the race remains close. Missouri is not in play anymore. New Hampshire, the closest Bush state in 2000, probably isn’t going to make a difference this year because it has only 4 electoral votes and not 5, but it may offset a Kerry-loss in Maine’s second district. And btw, amendment 36 in Colorado will not pass, I think.
Prediction: Bush wins Ohio and Florida, thus the Presidency. If he wins the popular vote with 3-4% it’s almost a landslide with 335.
And the Senate and the House stays Republican. And I hope Kerry wins.
Chance, please, I’m not looking to kill you, fer cryin’ out loud. If he pulls less than 8 over here, just send me a bottle of Scotch. You’ll stay alive and I’ll be warm and happy over the winter.
I think, barring a few percentage-point swings in the next few days (post debate #3) that actually stay swung, Kerry has less than equal odds of taking Ohio, and likewise for taking Florida. But if he gets either of them, the odds of a Bush re-election get a lot longer.
I can’t separate hope from my assessment easily, but it seems reasonably likely that Kerry will one of the two, and thereby clear the 270 mark.
Bush could win even if he loses Ohio, but it just strikes me as unlikely that he’d lose Ohio but take Nevada (without losing New Mexico, or vice versa) and Wisconsin (his most likely make-up states).
If Bush loses Florida, he’d need a third state, and at that point his best prospect would be New Hampshire or Iowa.
Meanwhile, for Kerry to win without Ohio or Florida, he needs to hold Wisconsin and Iowa, nail both New Mexico and Nevada, retain New Hampshire, and pick up a couple of Colorado’s 9 (which assumes Colorado goes with the initiative).
In light of all that, my prediction: Kerry does slightly better percentagewise in Florida than Gore did, and therefore takes Florida. Bush fails to win in enough of the following states–New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa–to make up the difference and therefore Kerry wins regardless of what happens in Ohio.
I don’t know who will win (Bush is very slightly ahead right now), but I’ll make one prediction: If Bush wins by a close margin (say, if the swing of one or two close states would turn the EC for Kerry, or if Bush wins the EC but loses the popular vote), the Democrats are going to go absolutely ape. They’re already making noises about fraud and voter intimidation just to set the scene for a furious round of legal challenges.
If Kerry wins by an equally small margin, I suspect the Republicans will do the same, but not with the same degree of zeal. There will be legal challenges, but there won’t be mobs of screaming people marching on Washington. Which there may well be if Bush wins a squeaker.
pantom—I appreciate your concern for my welfare. There are better ways to die than that. Slower, less painful ways. Scotch is one of them. If he pulls 8 or more, can I ask you to slowly kill me with a bottle of gin? Just a preference, is all, in case you want a friendly bet.
Yeesh. Gin. That is poison.
You’re on. See you in this thread on Nov 3.
Prediction: There will not be a concession speech made before November 4th.
Bush wins with a 5-7% EC advantage.
furt - thanks for the link – very interesting.
God, can’t you already smell it on the wind? 10,000 Demo lawyers watching, with pens in hand (penis in hand) just waiting for that moment. The director’s -“Action!” -
Well, maybe if the Republicans would stop pulling crazy-ass stunts like shredding voter registration forms for Democrats…
“Just to set the scene …”? Maybe, just maybe, they are also concerned about the fraud and voter intimidation. I know, I know, it’s just a crazy theory, but think about it!
In the original script, the shuttles were supposed to zip around the moon to get behind the asteroid, then flash their police lights at it in hopes of making it pull over.
Word.
A few weeks ago, I was certain Bush would win. But the debates went better for Kerry than I thought possible. I think Bush had gotten used to his “loyalty oath” gatherings, and was unprepared for an actual debate.
Now I am confident that Kerry will win the popular vote. But I still think Bush will end up winning the EC.
I also predict that there will be voter fraud in Florida, and Bush will again win by a tiny margin. And this time the democrats will not accept it without a fight.
Basically, the way the EC is set up favors Bush, and he will win despite getting less votes. Again.
No one even has a guess about this?!