We're in the home stretch: Election predictions

[Patty_O_Furniture]

@Fiver

No one even has a guess about this?!

Newsday | Long Island's & NYC's News Source

If you do a political poll on land-line phones, you miss those from 18 to 25, and there are figures all over the place that show there are 40 million between the ages of 18 and 29, one in five eligible voters.

(snip)

Common sense would say that the majority of the 18 to 25 who do vote would vote for the Democrat. The people who say they want to vote for Bush are generally in the older age brackets, and they don’t have as much trouble with the lies told by Bush and his people. The older people also use cell phones much less because they can’t hear on the things and when trying to dial a number on these midget instruments they stand there for an hour and get nothing done.

[Patty_O_Furniture]

And I just came across this Charles Cook interview in WAPO.

Virtually all the polls you are seeing are using random digit dialing, not voter registeration rolls, so theoretically even newly registered voters are being polled. A far bigger problem is that as many as 18 percent of telephone subscribers today have no land lines, and since pollsters are not calling cell phones, almost one in five voters are not being included in poll samples.

He goes on to say that the incumbent must be polling at 49% or better to win, because the undecideds typically break for the challenger by at least 2:1, and possibly by as much as 3:1.

But as a general rule, undecided voters overwhelmingly break toward challengers, unless the incumbent is relatively unknown, undefined, appointed or something. That’s why it is a mistake for people to focus on the spread between the two candidates, the far more relevant figure is the actual vote percentage of the incumbent in a poll (or better, average of polls).

[Fiver]

Interesting links. Zogby, in the Breslin column, says he doesn’t use phones for his polling, but doesn’t say what he does use.

Still, in light of both those links, I’m calling the race for Kerry.

[Chance_the_Gardener]

@pantom

Yeesh. Gin. That is poison.
You’re on. See you in this thread on Nov 3.

Consider it bookmarked.

I’ve had a bet with a friend of mine since 2002 that Bush would lose the 2004 election. It’s just a twenty-dollar bet. At the time, he was completely convinced that Bush would get elected; I was only sure that there were no guarantees yet. I felt at the time I could lose that one, possibly, but I wanted to make a point. (For the record, both my friend and I wanted me to win.)

This time, I’m not out to prove a point, but I’ll admit I’m not as sure of this as I was sure that the 2004 election was unsure back in 2002. (Um… got that? I’m not sure I do!) Still, I said 8 points or more, in Kerry’s favor, and I’m sticking with it. So may the best man win. (By “best man” I mean John Kerry. As to this bet, well… I’d rather that I win it!)

[RTFirefly]

I think Kerry will win. But I’ve just been reading this Atlantic Monthly article about Karl Rove, and given his track record, I’d bet that we’re going to see at least one more intense smear campaign in the next two and a half weeks. So I’m reluctant to speculate on a margin.

[Chance_the_Gardener]

@RTFirefly

I think Kerry will win. But I’ve just been reading this Atlantic Monthly article about Karl Rove, and given his track record, I’d bet that we’re going to see at least one more intense smear campaign in the next two and a half weeks. So I’m reluctant to speculate on a margin.

Watch for this Rove-inspired push poll in a swing state near you: “Would you still vote for John Kerry even though he fathered both his daughters with a woman who is not his wife?” Sure, it’s true that his daughters are children of Kerry’s first wife, Julia Thorne, but the push polls won’t point that out. Is this incomprehensible? Well, considering that the Bush campaign conducted push polls in the 2000 South Carolina primary asking, “Would you still vote for John McCain if you knew he’d fathered a black child out of wedlock?” a repeat of this tactic wouldn’t surprise me. As we all know, Senator McCain and his wife had adopted a Bangladeshi orphan, but the push poll didn’t bother with that little detail.

Rove is scum.

[RTFirefly]

@Sam Stone

The [Dems are] already making noises about fraud and voter intimidation just to set the scene for a furious round of legal challenges.

Not that any fraud or intimidation would actually be happening, or anything.

there is a pattern of Republican efforts to disenfranchise Democrats, by any means possible.

Some of these, like the actions reported in Nevada, involve dirty tricks. For example, in 2002 the Republican Party in New Hampshire hired an Idaho company to paralyze Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts by jamming the party’s phone banks.

But many efforts involve the abuse of power. For example, Ohio’s secretary of state, a Republican, tried to use an archaic rule about paper quality to invalidate thousands of new, heavily Democratic registrations.

That attempt failed. But in Wisconsin, a Republican county executive insists that in this year, when everyone expects a record turnout, Milwaukee will receive fewer ballots than it got in 2000 or 2002 - a recipe for chaos at polling places serving urban, mainly Democratic voters.

A Washington Post examination of rejected applications in Duval County found three times as many were from Democrats, compared with Republicans. It also found a strong tilt toward rejection of blacks’ registrations.

The case of Florida’s felon list - used by state officials, as in 2000, to try to wrongly disenfranchise thousands of blacks - has been widely reported. Less widely reported has been overwhelming evidence that the errors were deliberate.

In an article coming next week in Harper’s, Greg Palast, who originally reported the story of the 2000 felon list, reveals that few of those wrongly purged from the voting rolls in 2000 are back on the voter lists. State officials have imposed Kafkaesque hurdles for voters trying to get back on the rolls. Depending on the county, those attempting to get their votes back have been required to seek clemency for crimes committed by others, or to go through quasi-judicial proceedings to prove that they are not felons with similar names.

And officials appear to be doing their best to make voting difficult for those blacks who do manage to register. Florida law requires local election officials to provide polling places where voters can cast early ballots. Duval County is providing only one such location, when other counties with similar voting populations are providing multiple sites. And in Duval and other counties the early voting sites are miles away from precincts with black majorities.

[rjung]

@Chance the Gardener

Watch for this Rove-inspired push poll in a swing state near you: “Would you still vote for John Kerry even though he fathered both his daughters with a woman who is not his wife?”

Oh, push polls are so 1990s! Between destroying voter registration forms, trying to get voters misidentified as felons and/or inactive, lopsided prime-time documentaries, and the all-purpose Diebold ace, it’ll be a minor miracle if Kerry can get more than 20% of the vote!

(Not to say that Rove isn’t already trying various combinations of these stunts…)

@Chance the Gardener

Rove is scum.

And the GOP love him for it.

[Patty_O_Furniture]

In the interest of balance and fairness::

Rock the Vote, a campaign to get the youth vote out in November, recently sent fake draft cards to 640,000 email addresses with the message ‘You’ve been drafted’ - because, according to Rock’s political director Hans Riemer, it would be 'crazy if young people went to the polls and didn’t factor this into their votes.

Carl Rove would be proud.

[John_Mace]

I need to be educated. What’s a “push poll”? Never heard of it before. From the context, I take it that they are polls with [mis]leading questions.

[XT]

I think it refers to a poll that asks a loaded question intended to ‘push’ propaganda to the people taking it. Like “If you knew that John Mace was beating his wife and enjoyed pushing baby ducks into ponds full of crocs, would you still vote for him?”. Its supposed to make you THINK that John Mace indeed beats his wife AND enjoys torturing baby ducks, blah blah blah.

-XT

[Patty_O_Furniture]

What is a push poll?

[ElvisL1ves]

John Mace, you *must * have heard about the GOP 2000 South Carolina primary.
We’re finally getting close enough that I’ll take a turn: Kerry by 51-48, ~295 EV’s. Puts me in the mainstream anyway, if not on “the far left bank”.

[John_Mace]

@Patty O'Furniture

What is a push poll?

Thanks. Pretty much what I thought. I honestly had never heard of this before.

[RTFirefly]

OK, one prediction, before I leave my desk for the weekend. But it’s one of those funky conditional ones, and it’s one I’ve said before.

If we have a split decision, it’ll be Kerry that wins the EC, and Bush that wins the popular vote.

Why? Simple. Bush is leading by between 20% and 40% in a bunch of states; Kerry’s only got huge leads like that in a handful of places. So if the popular vote breaks dead even, Kerry will almost have to win the EC, because Bush will have a big popular majority locked up in solid-red country - Texas, the Plains states, the northern Rockies (including Utah and Alaska), and some Southeastern states. Kerry won’t have nearly as big a majority locked up in solid-blue states in the Northeast and West Coast, leaving a significant Kerry popular majority in the swing states of the Midwest, Southwest, and Florida. If Kerry wins the popular vote, or even loses by a slender margin (under 200K votes), I’ll wager that he’ll win enough electoral votes to survive a legal challenge of any single close state that he wins, be it Florida, Ohio, or whatever.

[rjung]

@John Mace

I honestly had never heard of this before.

You’ve never been inclined to vote for a candidate Rove wants to destroy, I’ll wager.

Fox News does something similar when there’s an unsubstantiated rumor they want to push into the mainstream – they lead off a news item with “Some sources have claimed…”, allowing them to propagate a smear without actually being held responsible for it.

[RTFirefly]

@RTFirefly

Bush will have a big popular majority locked up in solid-red country - Texas, the Plains states, the northern Rockies (including Utah and Alaska), and some Southeastern states. Kerry won’t have nearly as big a majority locked up in solid-blue states in the Northeast and West Coast, leaving a significant Kerry popular majority in the swing states of the Midwest, Southwest, and Florida.

And so says the WaPo tracking poll:

The latest Post tracking poll continues to show the race deadlocked, with each candidate receiving 48 percent of the vote. Independent Ralph Nader continues to barely register nationally and gets 1 percent of the hypothetical vote.

But the survey also suggests that Kerry continues to claim a large lead in key battleground states. In these 13 states, Kerry held a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters.

[BrainGlutton]

A leading Republican analyst, Frank Luntz, now thinks the tide has definitely turned in Kerry’s favor. From http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/10-15b-04.asp:

The big story of the US presidential election up to Thursday was how few undecided voters there were. Now the final presidential debate is over, these voters have essentially made up their minds - and it is George W.Bush who should be worried. If John Kerry is elected the 44th president, it will be because of a single night in Miami, Florida, when he came to debate and Mr. Bush came to - well, no one is quite sure. The double-digit lead that Gallup polls, long considered an authority for presidential polling, gave Mr. Bush after the Republican convention was fully erased by that fateful 90-minute confrontation.

Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be “undecided” are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit.

Can Mr. Bush turn the tide in just 18 days? Absolutely, but his candidacy must address voters who still harbour economic and national security concerns. But that requires a fundamental shift in the president’s strategy and message. Asserting that the economy is strong and Iraq a success is simply not credible to the majority of Americans or to the stubborn 5 per cent who remain uncommitted.

[Sam_Stone]

I feel I must be living in an alternate universe, what with all the talk here about how well Kerry is doing. Everything I’ve seen and read indicates a shift back towards Bush since the second debate, and especially after the third.

First, you can see an overview of all the polls here. Notice that as the polls get newer, Bush’s lead grows. The latest Newsweek poll has Bush leading Kerry by six points, 50-44. Zogby has Bush by 4 points.

Then there’s the battleground states. The only state that Gore took in 2000 that Kerry is leading in now is Ohio, but again, the very latest poll there shows Bush leading. In almost all cases, the polls seem to be trending Bush.

And look where the candidates are campaigning - Kerry is spending most of his time in Ohio and Florida. He needs to not only hang on to all his other states, but he needs to win one of those two. Bush’s battleground states look much more secure.

This race is going to be fought out in Florida and Ohio, but Bush has the luxury of being able to pull his resources out of his own battleground states, whereas Kerry still has to play defense because his are at risk. Advantage; Bush.

Bush can still lose. Easily. But right now, if you’re a betting person you’ve got to put your money on Bush to win. And in fact, betting people are. The Iowa Electronic Markets show a solid trend for bush - right now Bush shares are going for .58, and Kerry shares are .41. At Tradesports, it’s 53/46.

If you guys are so confident of a Kerry victory, you should go put some money down. You’ll make a killing.

Personally, I think this race is sitting overall at about a 4 point spread between Bush and Kerry, and Bush has the advantage in the battleground states. I think the IEM shares are overvaluing Bush a bit - Tradesports is probably close to the right valuation.

[BrainGlutton]

@Sam Stone

Then there’s the battleground states. The only state that Gore took in 2000 that Kerry is leading in now is Ohio, but again, the very latest poll there shows Bush leading. In almost all cases, the polls seem to be trending Bush.

According to http://www.electoral-vote.com/, the latest two polls, done 10/14, show Florida exactly tied. One of those polls was by Strategic Visions. When Strategic Visions calls the race tied, I think we can read that as meaning Kerry is ahead!