Oh, good point. If Flying Cow of Doom is a Miller, night-kill hocow, not pimaspinner. No point in executing a Cop for a mistake they couldn’t help but make.
Oh, a question, too. Does pimaspinner want suggestions on future investigations? If so, should Pleonast and zuma give those, so she doesn’t waste future investigations on Masons?
So we have another outing, damn. But it’s nice to have a more solid feel that BM is indeed the Vig. But if we agree that FCOD is indeed Mafia, and they do not claim Miller, would not a lynching be better? It is supposed to give us more information than a Vigging, and that’s what we need. I do not know what to do if they claim to be/are the Miller though. We cannot be sure if they are or not, and we certainly don’t want to lynch them if so. We still have many hours to decide though, and should at least hold off on critical mass voting until we get non-mason confirmation, and a defense post from FCOD.
Also, if we agree Mafia and lynch, who gets the Vig? Time for another round of post-searching…
by glee
When the Beat Cop result lands on Godfather or Miller, they just get ‘citizen’ or ‘Mafia’, right? So it’s similar to having (Beat Cop, Detective, Vigilante, Doctor, Guardian Angel*, Serial Killer, Citizen, Citizen(Godfather), Mafia, Mafia(Miller*) as the options?
*Assuming those roles are present.
This is a good idea provided I live through the night.
Thanks for pointing that out:
Sheesh - a Townie showing up as scum!
It’s just gone midnight in my time zone, but I agree with your statement. Maybe I can extend the maths a little.
Assume out of the 38 players there are:
8 regular Mafia
1 Godfather (but shows ‘Citizen’)
1* Miller (but shows ‘Mafia’)
1 Serial Killer
1 Detective
2 Beat Cops
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
1 Guardian Angel
21 Citizens
*just a guess how many
So if a Beat Cop investigates a regular Mafia, there is a 50% chance that ‘Mafia’ will come back, when it is 89% likely it is a Mafia and an 11% chance it’s the Miller.
After the same answer on the second investigation, it’s 75% that a Mafia has been correctly identified.
Now if the Beat Cop investigates an innocent (or the Godfather), there’s a 50% chance the ‘correct innocent’ answer comes back. In this case, depending how many Citizens are left (in the first couple of days it was about 17) it’s 94% to actually be that innocent and 6% to be the Godfather.
The chance of an innocent coming back as a ‘Mafia’ is 50% the first time, but getting the same wrong answer the second time is 50% (wrong guess) times onlyabout 11% (choose anyone of 9 alternative answers), and the chances are therefore about 6% of an innocent being labelled wrongly.
No way! You seem to be trying to save FCOD.That, among other posts of yours, has you high on my scum list. The most telling of which is when you invited Jsexton to fill in for chrisk.Which makes Jsexton scum also,along with Auto.
I vote FlyingCow
Vig Jsexton
After Jsexton is killed,I believe it will be clear that Fern is scum.
God damn it, is there *anyone *in town who isn’t a power role?
(and is it worse to lose even more vanilla townfolk or to have our our power roles uncovered)
Lynch FlyingCowofDoom
If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.
Before this revelation, I was about to vote for JSexton. I still feel I should lay out my case, since FCOD’s death is pretty much a done deal at this point, and lynching Pima if FCOD is town is too obvious to waste time arguing about.
Let’s start with chrisk. If chrisk didn’t leave, he should have been lynched (I was about to say “would have”, but no strategy is too obviously correct for this group :smack: ). He was caught in a big lie, supporting a flawed strategy that he admitted to work to the scum’s advantage. chris’ departure left me and others with the impression of a despondant innocent, but perhaps we shouldn’t read anything into it. Now, JSexton can’t be called on to defend chrisk, but the fact remains that he inherited the role. We gave him time to play the game as himself, but he’s stepped up into a spot as prime scum suspect.
Why did he out BM as the SK? Why didn’t him initial accusatory post even consider the possibility that BM was the vigilante? JSexton is likely our most seasoned player, surely he must have realized the possibility?
Because calling Blaster Master the SK made it more likely that he’d lynch him, and beyond that it didn’t matter. As has been pointed out, it behooves the SK to play pro-town, and JS must have known that. The mafia wants the SK dead just as much as we do. Perhaps more so (not that this should stop us from killing the real SK, once identified). They also want the vigilante dead. While the vigilante is a double-edged sword for the town, we still can use him to our advantage. Even if he was totally off-base, at least JSexton knew he wasn’t mafia, and was at the least a vanilla townsfolk. All possibilities work out to the mafia’s favor.
JSexton, j’accuse!
And if FlyingCow is not Mafia, nor the Miller?
Would some humour be appropriate?
Even if you avoid a lynching in this Town, there’s always the Mafia, the Serial Killer or perhaps the Vigilante :eek: .
I think the Realtor who sold me a house here might have said something more explicit than “the night life is very exciting!”
For our UK readers only, this place should be called Midsomer :smack:
Oops. Forgot about the possibility of a miller.
Amend my above to
If Flying Cow of Doom is scum OR miller, target JSexton
FCOD, if you are indeed the miller, your blocking history may prove useful. Please share it before your unfortunate demise.
I’m not sure what to think about this latest revelation. It seems that we have a predeliction for wanting to lynch “Power” Citizens.
Blaster Master: Vigilante
Pleonast: Mason
zuma: Mason
Now, pimaspinner: Beat Cop.
Can’t we ever pick a “normal” Citizen? Or better yet, maybe, you know, Mafia?!?
Now the difference between this role-claim and the previous ones is that they were all ultimately verifiable; the Masons can vouch for each other, and the Vigilante can prove himself by killing the Serial Killer (he also has to deal with the possibility of a counter-claim if he is lying). This claim, on the other hand, cannot be indisputably verified except in death, when all secrets are revealed.
So what can we infer from this? Is he a scum, making this claim because all of the “good roles” have already been taken? Or is he telling the truth? So far, my hunches have been proven just as good as everyone else’s, which is to say: not very. And at this point, I don’t really have a gut feeling one way or the other.
On preview, I see that Flying Cow Of Doom has already picked up a couple of votes. Before this turns into a full-on bandwagon, I’d like to know why people are suspicious of FCOD, apart from “pimaspinner says so”. **storyteller0910 **and **Fretful Porcupine **are the only people before just now to have voted for FCOD, and I don’t recall a general consensus that he was scummy. I’d really hate for everyone to jump on board this bandwagon, lynch FCOD, and then find out that pimaspinner is Mafia making an unsubstantiated claim.
I’m not saying that pimaspinner is lying, just pointing out that we have no evidence one way or the other for pimaspinner’s claim. If that is the *only *evidence we have against FCOD, I don’t know if we should be too hasty. If there is other evidence, then it’s a different story.
First a correction:
If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia or Miller, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.
As per my previous posts, I think there were 21 Citizens to start with.
And I’m sure the power roles are much more important, so the Citizens should die bravely at the hands of the Mafia. :eek:
Your post is jolly suspicious to me. :eek:
If Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop, then Flying Cow of Doom is very likely to be Mafia.
If Flying Cow of Doom is not Mafia (nor a Miller), then Pimaspinner is very likely to be Mafia.
Why would you ‘really hate for everyone to jump on board this bandwagon, lynch FCOD, and then find out that pimaspinner is Mafia…’.
We then get Pimaspinner!
Don’t you want to get one Mafia for each Citizen?
Are you … protecting a fellow Mafia?!
Well, lynching FCOD is the easiest way to substantiate that claim, and if FCOD does in fact turn out to be a townie and not a Miller, we can then confirm pimaspinner as Mafia. (I think it is a reasonable bet that no sane townie would claim to be a Beat Cop if he or she wasn’t.) FCOD turning out to be a Miller is obviously the worst-case scenario, but there are a lot more Mafia than Millers, so it seems like a reasonable risk to take.
Final correction, then I’m going to bed. :rolleyes:
If FlyingCowofDoom is not either Mafia or Miller, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is either Mafia or Miller, Vig to kill JSexton.
“The Cop Said So” is good enough reason for me. It’s a much stronger reason than most, all of those given in this day, in fact, and if FCOD is innocent, pima dies. Self-correcting.
You best watch yourself, my unicellular friend. I think you’re after my Krabby Patties. And also likely mafia.
Krabby Patties?
Hehe…Plankton from The Spongebob show steals Krabby Patties.
Well, now that Winston is dead, yeah.