For those confused, ‘durrenly’ = ‘currently’
And I even previewed, how pathetic. :o
No. The second time, here - after I’d had a chance to review her work so far.
Sorry for the confusion.
Incidentally, I unvoted FCoD last time around in order to vote for pima, but wasn’t thrilled with it because I believe that they’re both scum. I had forgotten that I have a second voting option. Accordingly, my lynch vote remains with pimaspinner but I would also like to cast a vote to:
Vig kill FlyingCowofDoom
It seems the main vote getters are JSexton, and Pimaspinner. I have read all of the analysis in this thread, and I agree that those 2 could very well be scum. FCOD seems like a possibility as well. I still don’t trust Aguecheek, MTS, or MonkeyMensch, but I am unsure if we have enough to go on to lynch them right now.
Lynch Pimaspinner
assassinate FCOD
And now I have to go do easter things. I may be able to check later tonight, if not, well that is what work is for right? Playing this game?
So we only have a little less the 29 hours to decide right? I thought that **pimaspinner **was on the opposite side of Blaster Master but if he was the VG then that might have explained it. I’ll be changing my vote in a few hours then.
Sorry I haven’t posted recently - I had guests for the weekend.
I am finding the sheer mass of the thread somewhat daunting, but here are some ideas:
-
I agree that the Serial Killer is a huge worry for the Mafia if the SK is still at large when the Town / Mafia numbers are nearly equal (the Mafia may have to sacrifice one of their own). However we haven’t reached that point yet.
-
I would like to see somebody make a defence against being lynched (no, I am not volunteering, though I do have a defence!); I find the Town get more information that way. We can also then change our minds (or put in a conditional for the Vig).
In order to achieve that, we need suggestion for a lynching. I know that Zuma and Pleonast are reluctant to suggest names, but they can avoid naming fellow Masons and I therefore ask them to start the ball rolling.
We do need to move things along, so there is time for a ‘lynching defence’, analysis of said defence and changing of minds… -
for what it’s worth, I think having 10 Mafia at the start (equal to the number needed for a lynch) is too powerful, so I expect there were 9 Mafia, plus the SK.
-
I think ordinary Citizens should provide decent food for thought in the thread and consider it an honour if the Mafia kill them (since a named Townie is thereby ‘saved’)
Fair enough - you’ve put some thought into that.
The reason I cast suspicion on ChrisK was that he was premature in suggesting lists (and sadly it contributed to us losing the Detective, which is a massive blow for the Town). I know JSexton was new, but I thought he would have something interesting to say, whether Town or Mafia.
As for switching my vote from ChrisK to another (referred to in your post 1078), I did so along with: Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, and pygmy rugger.
(I actually voted for pygmy rugger, if that means anything.)
Having asked for Masonic advice, I will follow it.
Lynch Pimaspinner
Vig kills JSexton
Okay, I’m only up to page 30 of rereading the thread again again, but I think I have enough evidence to back up my vote for the day.
Vote pimaspinner
Based on:
-FoSed Enfant Terrible early, but waited to vote until there were already 7 votes on him
-FoSed FCoD early and often, but has not voted for him as of page 30
-the continuing assertions that Blaster Master was (not “might be” but “was”) CaerieD’s breadcrumb
-The entire uselessness of post 847 - it looks like an attempt to be helpful, but almost all the entries boil down to “I don’t know” and no information (like vote counts, quotes or links) that might make the post useful are included. Yeah, yeah, I know someone has brought up the “bad analysis does not equal scum” but that wasn’t just “bad analysis”.
Hmm, looks like the most likely to go up today are JSexton or pimaspinner.
unvote sturmhauke
vote pimaspinner
I would suggest that the SK and VG attack someone among the 5 that I mentioned earlier as I do think there’s a higher scum content there then with players at large. Outside of them the only other minor suspicion I had was brewha who I voted for yesterday (albeit briefly) and who voted for me today. I’m happy to leave it up to them although I’m definitely in that minority but I’ve made my say.
Well that’s too strong. I do believe the possibility is worth pursuing.
This day ends at 12 noon on Monday, and I now have 7 votes against me. I don’t know if I will have time to get back to do this before the lynch deadline, and I want to give everybody time to process the info. I don’t want to die before explaining what I did to avoid the confusion that occurred after our Detective died.
Yup, I’m a copper. I don’t know if I’m the only one or not. I feel like I’ve been playing the game amazingly bad as I’ve said before. One of the things that brought a little bit of suspicion on myself pretty early on was my questioning of **CaerieD’s ** breadcrumb. Here. And here. And here. I questioned it because that’s not how I did it! It makes sense that all the night roles on the first night would have targeted a previous player. But I didn’t, so that reasoning didn’t enter my brain until **storyteller ** pointed it out. I conceded the point here. And again here.
On night one, I investigated FlyingCowOfDoom. I was told he was mafia. OK, so I’m supposed to be wrong 50% of the time, so I didn’t put much credence to it. What are the chances that I would ping mafia on the first night? Night two, I investigated him again. Mafia. Again. OK, so according to Blaster Master’s Beat Cop Breakdown, I can be almost sure now that he is mafia. So I have been operating on that assumption. Watching everything that **FCOD ** does, and seeing who he seems to align himself with. The problem with **FCOD ** is that he hasn’t done anything to make many people be suspicious of him. I’ve tried to lay my breadcrumbs down. He even wondered what he did to make me sooooo suspicious.
Crumb. Crumb. Crumb. Crumb. Crumb.
I kind of backed off the crumb laying then here, and tucked him into my pocket to use later. I’m not going to try to railroad anybody without evidence I can put forth without outing myself now am I? If you go back and look at a lot of **FCOD’s ** posts in Day 2, they are vote counts or corrections to vote counts. Trying to make himself look like a contributor. Now he has a few votes against him, so a few other people are starting to suspect him. He could be a miller, because millers show up as scum if investigated, but I don’t know how that works out in the probabilities. Unless **FCOD ** role-claims to be a miller, he’s scum. Even if he does claim miller, I’m still going to wonder.
At first I thought Blaster Master might be a beat cop too, because he was spending a lot of time analyzing the role. At one point, I posted that I thought the beat cop role could not possibly be a power role, here. I didn’t want the Mafia to think I was a cop and kill me before I had a chance to investigate. I thought I might have pushed a little too hard in the **FCOD ** breadcrumb laying. Day two lasted so so so long, I just wanted it to be night so I could investigate someone else. When Blaster Master claimed, he laid out a list of people to look at who voted for him. My name was absent from that list, and I was right in the fray to lynch him. Thank goodness we didn’t. I’m guessing that **BM ** suspected me to be a cop.
Night 3, I decided to try and confirm **Blaster Master ** rather than take a wild ass shot in the dark. Found out he really is the Vigilante. I’m working on the assumption that if I had chosen the wrong answer on that one, the chances of it being his role claim would be fairly slim. I don’t feel like another investigation of Blaster Master will be warranted.
I realize this role is not very reliable, and my information could very well be wrong, but with the answers I got when I investigated, I think they are right. If someone better at math than me wants to analyze them, please feel free. I’ll be confirmed when I die, so if you guys want to lynch me, I’m OK with that. Like I said, I just wanted you all to know what I was thinking when I put down my crumbs to avoid any confusion like last time. If anyone has any questions that I didn’t address here, please ask. If I make it to night, I will probably be mafia killed. I don’t want the Doctor to use his protection on me. I feel like **Blaster ** **Master ** is a more valuable asset than I am.
Unvote glee
Vote FlyingCowofDoom
I’ll buy it on my previous realization that the people who act the most suspiciously are power role townies. It must be something about trying to let some people in on your secret but not others.
unvote pimaspinner
Are you willing to put your life on the line for a possible trade off if **FCOD **turns outtown?
Also is this a case where **FCOD **should be a night kill for a VG while we pursue someone else who might be better hidden? I know some people didn’t like that but I think it might work nicely here.
Also is anyone else afraid we’ll get 500 posts in the next 24 hours?
Unvote: pimaspinner
God hates me. I think my strategy from now on should be to put the people that I find most suspicious into the Town column.
Unvote pimaspinner
Even with 2 investigations by the beat cop, there’s still a small chance FCoD isn’t Mafia. Can Pleonast or zuma at least confirm he’s not Mason?
Now I have to read the goddamn thread again.
Well, I think my “Blaster Master is at the heart of a Mafia conspiracy” theory no longer has legs, unless pimaspinner is making the whole thing up, so I’m going to unvote kivvik and vote FlyingCowOfDoom.
Unvote Pimaspinner
Lynch FlyingCowofDoom
If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.
P.S. Assuming Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop, the chances of getting an incorrect ‘Mafia’ read on FlyingCowofDoom twice* are (as someone helpfully pointed out earlier) about 7%. Therefore it’s about 93% FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia.
**If the Beat Cop makes a 50% mistake, (and assuming there is a Miller) there are 7 choices (all but one from Citizen / Beat Cop / Detective / Vigilante / Doctor / Miller / Serial Killer / Mafia).
This first choice is 50% to be wrong.
The second time, the same wrong choice (50% chance) has to be multiplied by a 1 in 7 chance of getting exactly the same wrong read.
First of all, I disagree that the Doctor should protect BM. He should choose randomly between the two of you to keep the Mafia guessing. And if he’s been protecting himself recently, well, I guess he has to choose randomly between the 3 of you.
Second, once the SK is dead, we don’t need to worry about protecting BM. Getting rid of the SK quickly will make our Doctor’s life much easier. Our Vig, BM, thinks that he has a bead on the SK, hocow. I say, let him try that out.
Third, it’s possible that this is a clever ruse by the Mafia. It’s even possible that BM is Mafia and is in on this. Perhaps we should lynch FCoD, and if he’s scum, let BM pursue hocow. If FCoD is town, BM kills pimaspinner. On the other hand, if pimaspinner was merely unlucky instead of lying, then we’re down another 2 townspeople, one of them a beat cop. Which leads to my next question:
Fourth, I have a question for NAF1138. Let’s say that cowgirl was Town, and a beat cop investigated her, but lost their coin flip and got the wrong alignment(say Mafia). Suppose that beat cop investigates her again. If the beat cop again loses their coin flip and gets the wrong alignment, is your answer randomly determined again, or do you automatically give the same wrong answer you gave last time(ie Mafia)?
Yes. Two investigations and Mafia both times. It is possible that he’s a miller, because the beat cop role isn’t always reliable. If he’s town, I’ll gladly go to the gallows with the regret that I wasn’t more helpful.
Wow, that small? I confess, I didn’t remember the odds, because the math in those posts scared me.
I guess I’ll vote FCoD then. If Pleonast or zuma do come in and say he’s a Mason, I’ll just go back to crying in the corner.
Millers come back scum, so eliminate them. However, there is the possibility of a Guardian Angel, so your math is still correct.