Eh, I’s lived a good life. No worries mate 
Given the odds there’s most likely some scum on the list yes, but I disagree that it’s why we’re seeing all of the discussion on the Vig/Sk. It’s the first day after a town-directed Vig kill, but there were only two deaths last night for wahtever reason. If we assume that the Mafia pulled off a fairly complex song and dance routine yesterday, then they could have killed Winston with the SK killing nesta. Or it could have gone to the town’s plan and the Vig got Winston. Much of the talk now is whether it is worth the risk of keeping the Vig/SK engine going. We cannot prove that Blaster Master was Winston’s killer. (See posts by Fretful Porpentine) It is much more likely that he is though. I don’t think anyone could have seen the outcome of Day 2 beforehand even with a plan going in. With the right choice of targets, tonight would likely be able to tell us the truth about the Vig. I don’t recall if NAF ever ruled on whether the Mafia can kill themselves or not, so if we can manage to pinpoint a Mafia target, BM can show his true colors.
Unless the BM-led Mafia killed Winston, the real Vig killed nesta and the SK either twiddled their thumbs or swung at a protected target. Regardless, -if- we can get agreed upon targets that have at least a high likelihood of being scum, then we should let BM have his second night. If we -cannot- find such viable looking targets, we might want to go ahead and look for a way to dismantle the killing machine. Or we can let it run and hope that the SK is listening and trying to take out Mafia to go for a town win, and may have in fact already started working on that idea.
Oh, and Fretful Porpentine, I proposed Winston for the kill because he was batshit crazy at the time and demanding the blood of our Masons. Scum may have pushed him as a sacrifice, but I did not. Just as a choice. glee had no bearing on my thoughts then, or now. Only thing between me and glee is this post here where they dump on my Autolycus Theory, but I hold no real grudge against them. Autolycus was pretty controversial then, although he seems to be less so now, edit issue aside. zuma also made mock of my idea, but that itself ended up helping to shape the Theory as more information came about.
And uh, I vote NAF doesn’t WTFpwn Autolycus. Which is like praying to a god, but hey, you never know 
For the record, I did not say that we should not kill the SK. I said we should not be worried about it TONIGHT, and we should worry about it tomorrow. What we need is 2 scum dead by day break tomorrow. This will bring them down to 6, a much more manageable number, and one which it would be difficult for them to attempt to bandwagon a townie from.
Tonight, and only tonight, we should not worry about who the SK.
Just saying “we need the SK dead because they are killing people” is, IMO, not good enough. We still have odds in our favour. 28 people left, 19 of whom are town aligned. The SK only knows who they are, leaving 27 people to kill. Since the SK is just as knowledgeable about roles as a vanilla citizen, who knows who they will get tonight? It has been shown, most likely, that the SK killed the only scum to have been killed so far. Who knows what they will get tonight?
If we get 2 scum, they will be down to 6. If the SK gets one of us, and the scum do as well, we will be at 17. Not the end of the world, particularly when we still have power roels and millers who might as well block Hocow. Who for no good reason as far as I can tell (well beyond the questionable reasoning of BM) is our #1 suspect.
If you read my whole post, I suggested leaving the killing apparatus as it is tonight. Changing it tomorrow. And the day after that having roles proclaim, give us the evidence they have, and we lynch lynch lynch. This will give us the win.
IMO we are just wasting time, and confusing the issue with this worry about the SK. However I won’t bother saying anything more on the issue, as I don’t want to lead another day to hell.
I too would like to hear from Smitty.
I to would suggest no killing of Autolycus. This one time. Anybody else does it though…
Thanks Queuing for the clarification. Like I said, I am still considering.
Back for about 1/2 an hour, then gone again.
You seem pretty sure of those numbers. :dubious:
That’d be 27 people to kill if the SK had to kill everyone. The SK doesn’t need to kill everyone. Just has to be left at the end.
Partly because she was giving sensible advice: “we should be careful not to get a bandwagon rolling too early, since that only benefits the mafia.” (and she turned out to be right about that, despite being Mafia, even!) And partly because she was one of few people who hadn’t said something suspicious already (and that was a damn short list).
Perhaps it’s time to put the “good analysis (or worse yet, analysis I agree with) = town” / “bad analysis or analysis I don’t agree with = Mafia” myth to rest for good? Because I’m beginning to wonder if it EVER holds true…
It might hold true once!
But what else do we have to go on, in separating sheep from goats?
Townies, presumably, will be posting honestly about their ideas. Meaning that they will really believe what they say makes sense and is helpful. Mafia will be posting dishonestly, doing their damnedest to make ideas that they know to be untrue SEEM to be true. All readers can do is listen to both the words AND music of the post. Are the ideas in this post just mistaken, or both mistaken and deceitful?
If you’re confident you can tell the difference, you’re a lot smarter than I am. And what about the situations where we don’t even know if the post is mistaken or not? I keep seeing people saying things like “I trust / distrust this person because his or her ideas are / are not similar to mine,” when they’re not even in a position to ascertain whether their own theories are correct, and that doesn’t seem to make sense.
And as for what else we’ve got to go on – well, we’ve got two days’ worth of voting records, resulting in two lynches and one nightime kill of innocent people, which ought to tell us something. (Is anybody updating those spreadsheets, by the way? They looked really useful, but they seem to have fallen by the wayside during the chaos that was Day 2.)
Umm, yeah I am. In that realistically the number of mafia would have been 9, we have 1 killed so far, which leaves 8, you minus 2 and that equals 6.
I won’t bother with this part, as I said I won’t bother with any more defense of not worrying about the SK tonight.
Well I have a doc that has a number of the votes on it. I don’t promise day 2 as being accurate. In fact I know it isn’t. Here it is if you find it helpful:
DAY 1 votes
8 votes- Enfant Terrible (ArizonaTeach, BlasterMaster, FCOD, Gadarene, Malacandra, Pleonast, Storyteller0910, pimaspinner, cowgirl, Winston Smith)
4 votes -Sturmhauke – (Queuing, , CaerieD, Aguecheek, Fernforest)
Unvoted: (Menecchio)
4 votes - Queuing - Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Zuma, Menecchio
2 votes -glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
2 votes -Autolycus – (Enfant Terrible, glee)
Unvoted him ( FCOD, Gadarene, malacandra)
1 vote - Chrisk - MadTheSwine
1 vote- Aguecheek – Sturmhauke
1 vote - Gadarene – Rysto
Day 2 Votes
4 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha, queuing, Arizona teach, primaspinner, Aguacheek)
7 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma, nesta
6 - Pleonast – (Lakia , Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene, queuing, Gadarene, Pima, pygmy)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene, SB)
5 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona teach, sturmhauke,malacandra)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio,)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote –( Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke
-UNVOte - -(Sturm)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
1 – Menecchio – (Autocylus)
0 – Aguecheek – (Monekymensch)
Unvote – (Monkeymensch)
0 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful, storyteller)
0 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted – fernforest, Monkemensch
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
* (Unvote – Winston) *
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
**0 **-Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm
Day 3 votes
2 - Suburban plankton – (starvingbutstrong, Jsexton, autolycus
Unvote – (autolycu
4 -JSexton – (Zuma, FCOD, suburban plankton, fretful, rysto, sturmhauke
Unvoyte – (zuma, Fretful
2 - Pimaspinner – (Lakai, pygmy rugger, story
Unvote – (pygmy
2 –MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek, MTS, hocow
Unvote – (MTS
1 - Fernforest – (brewha
1 - Kivvik – (fretful
1 – Sturmhauke – (fernforest)
1 - Queuing – (Monkey
1 – Glee – (pimaspinner
1 – MTS – (Autolycus
0 - FCOD – (Storyteller
Unvote – (storyteller
0 – Ryston – (Pimaspinner
Unvote - Pima
0 -PygmyRugger – (MadTheSwine
Unovte – (MTS
Unvote queuing.
Auto I have given it some thought and have decided not to mod kill you, frankly I don’t think that it would be fair. But don’t do it again! That goes for everyone. I know everybody slips up, but do try to play within the rules. The no edit rule is in place because peoples posts are all anyone has to go on in this game, and the ability to edit undermines the game itself.
NO MORE EDITING.
You’ve made an awful lot of assumptions on your way to that vote. First you assume that Menocchio is a townie. Granted, it’s a very strong possibility, and I agree with you. However, the only confirmed townie who could tell us is dead. Next you assume Rysto is town. I tentatively agree, but there’s no solid evidence there. And then you assume that the ratio of scum in your list is identical to the ratio in the game as a whole. While this is more likely than not, it’s nowhere near a certainty.
I did a quick readthrough of last game’s commentary thread, but I really don’t see how you’re inferring chrisk’s role here from his posts there. You want to elaborate on that?
Regarding the editing of posts, I don’t think it’s a good idea to remove people from the game for it. Editing your post for deceitful purposes is already frowned upon by Board rules; anyone fool enough to try some edit trickery for the sake of a game risks the wrath of the Royal Cecilian Mounted Police.
True, very true. But with the people I felt most suspicious about I don’t have anything else. I felt I had to cobble together a vote and this is what I came up with. What can I say, we’re down a queen and I’ve decided to push my pawn upboard.
We look with different eyes. What helped me feel this way from the get go was his enthusiasm. Were he to have any role other then vanilla townie I feel that he would have behaved differently in this thread. Because he was (IMHO) a vanilla townie he was able to jump in with both feet and not have to worry about consequences.
I missed a bit there.
… But with the people I felt most suspicious about turning out to be townies with power roles …
Woohoo! Now I can resume worrying about the SK, VIG, lynch mob, and Mafia 
Vote: Pimaspinner
I liked storeyteller’s analysis, and the insistance that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb rubs me the wrong way.
Pima and JSexton are pinging my scumdar the most at this point. My anaysis (like just about everyone here) has been pretty bad up until now, but I think we have to choose a target somewhat soon.
I’ve thought of a new tactic! Those of you who read CS might have noticed I durrenly have MASSIVE QUANTITIES of pecorino romano.
And we all know that the Mafia likes italian food, yes?
So – I hearby offer to send a goodly chunk of said cheese to the first Mafioso who stands up and confesses!
(Status must be confirmed post-lynch)
C’mon. You know you want to confess. It’s good for the soul, and now it’s good for the tummy!