I had that thought as well. Of course, I wasn’t about to blurt it out when Zuma was asking for reasons.
I have no idea why he chose MadtheSwine.
As for whether I got two successful protections? I don’t know. It’s entirely possible that either of both of the missing kills aren’t attributed to me. The Guardian Angel is one possibility. A successful miller is another. The SK or mafia may have chosen not to kill, or may have simply missed the deadline. There might have been a doublekill on one of the targets.
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said. However, the whole point of the random theory isn’t that the doctor has to necessarily follow it, simply that we WANT the mafia to be unsure IF we’re following that or not, and make them think twice about who they target. This presents two possibly beneficial outcomes: 1) We manage to bluff the mafia, and they target the person the doctor is protecting meaning their kill is moot (much like I imagine it was last night) or 2) They’re so unsure that they don’t even bother to target either of us, and we lose a vanilla townie instead of mostly confirmed power roles. Considering that most of the town still thinks my “power” is useful at this juncture, combined with my “almost confirmed” status, that is still probably advantageous. Of course, then the possibility exists that the doctor might not protect the more valuable role and the mafia might then target him. However, with the distinct possibility that the mafia would probably waste their hit again if they target either of us, I think they would be foolish to target either of us when the most important role (the doctor) is still out there, undetermined among the unconfirmed townies, and likely unprotected. Obviously, if they can get the doctor, they can then start picking off the rest of us who’ve claimed, one at a time.
Further, to play more on the random theory, the doctor can choose to weight the randomness; that is, if he thinks the beat cop is worth twice as much as me, he can pull a random number between 1-0, and say anything .333 or less, protect me, and anything greater protect pimaspinner.
Even after all that, I’m willing to make a gambit that I probably don’t need protection, and here’s my reasoning why. Let’s assume** FCOD** is the miller, and the mafia doesn’t targe me. It will still leave a doubt as to whether either of us is mafia or not. Hence, by targetting me, they 100% confirm both **pimaspinner ** and FCOD (because my kill still goes through, even if I die tonight), whereas if they target FCOD, they only confirm pimaspinner, leaving me still somewhat in question. If they target pimaspinner, they confirm both me and FCOD. Further, as I’ve made clear, if tonight goes even a bit in our favor, I think it’s time to start going after the SK, at which point, I’m somewhat advantageous to them because they can try to guide the VIG vote counts toward townies and/or the SK. Also, if they can kill target the SK, my power goes away as well. Thus, I think if we’ve FOSed any potential SKs that are not mafia, the mafia would be foolish to target one of the three of us (resulting in two confirmed townies if successful, and no kill if not… sort of lose/lose for them). Thus, I’d be surprised if the mafia don’t target one of the potential SKs (hocow, Autolycus, or the other named that I can’t recall at this moment), assuming they’re not actually mafia. However, leaving the possibility that either I or pimaspinner is probably protected makes the proposition of targetting either of us worth even less to the mafia.
As far as the SK, he would also be silly to target me, especially if he’s not one of my suspects. It’s already been made abundantly clear that the only chance he has of winning is helping the town, because the mafia can just keep pushing off victory until either the town or the mafia kills him. The town cannot do that, because we have no idea how many mafia are left, and have a much harder time targetting them.
Of course, this brain dump may be completely moot, because JSexton is also probably my second candidate for SK, so it’s entirely possible I won’t get to kill tonight at all.
For the love of God… I didn’t have you pegged on the doctor at all and, in fact, this seems like an incredulous claim and thus makes you MORE likely to be scum in my eyes. That said, I’m still going to unvote JSexton and revote Suburban Plankton, because you still have enough votes for death, but I don’t want to be the one vote that failed to unvote in the case that the town can get someone else lynched.
Why, oh why, couldn’t we go after Suburban Plankton? Let me guess, he woulda claimed doctor, or miller, or GA too, right?
Isn’t it obvious? chrisk/JSexton has been suspicious since the very beginning, and now he’s just trying to save his ass with an unverifiable role claim. At least I’m willing to die to prove my role, but we can’t afford to lose the one and only Doctor in that fashion.
It’s a load of crap, if you ask me. Too little too late. My vote stands.
I just hope we were right about JSexton, or we can pretty much kiss this game good bye. If he IS the doctor, say goodbye to pimaspinner too.
Do we maybe want to discuss a contingency plan vice me targetting FCOD in the event that he IS the doctor? I’m not sure that verifying FCOD is necessarily the best course of action if that is the case. Anyone, particularly the masons, have an opinion on that?
Here is why:
Post 2036 . S/he is the first one to come up with the idea of the lynch test for FCOD. One we all agree is a good one. Yes Zuma did put it together nicer and neater, but the first hint of the idea is here.
Plus I think his idea of trading kills is not something the mafia would do. YMMV of course.
I suppose this is going to be hard to turn around, but the number one accuser of FernForest was JSexton here and here
I think we should lynch MonkeyMensch or Suburban Plankton.
Monkey Mensch for this very odd vote,here hours after FCOD had claimed. As well what is up with the “Thanks for the update JSexton?” Is there talk outside of the board, or did I miss something JSexton said that was very enlightening? ArizonaTeach also found it odd here
Suburban Plankton because of the case outlined here by BM. As well as glee here
So far what its worth:
Lynch SuburbanPlankton
Mostly because I know BM is already behind it and it has a better chance of working in the limited time we have.
I suppose no one liked my “a lot of roles claim” idea? Sigh, I suppose that means we lose someone important tonight. I just hope it isn’t the cop. Of course it will be tomorrow I suppose. Hmm, maybe we shouldn’t have BM test FCOD for now, but have the millers go at whom the top Scum suspects are at the moment.
Of course who that it is is debatable, but I would say its MonkeyMensch, FernForest (if still alive), sturmhauke or Aguecheek.
I think you still very much want to verify Cow. If you lynch me, you almost certainly lose the cop tonight, barring the GA intervening. Verified townies will be in short supply once that happens.
And I still am fairly confident that you’ll score a kill on scum by targeting Cow.
I realize you don’t particularly believe me now, but come back to this after I die, ok? You’ll believe me then.
I think this is yet another dodgy post by you. Either you are a badly confused Town or a crafty Mafia.
First I don’t see any ‘finger-pointing’ or lack of rational discussion. (Feel free to point to the posts that bother you.)
Next, why does there have to be ‘at least one scum out of Pimaspinner or Flying Cow of Doom’?
If Flying Cow of Doom is (as claimed) a Miller, then Pimaspinner can be a good Beat Cop.
No one worth his salt in such a power role should be looking so scummy either; he should be trying to stay under everyone’s radar. Introducing the open detection system is an even worse idea than we thought, if he really was the doctor. Even if it didn’t look scummy, it still makes him look like a power role to the mafia.
That still doesn’t make sense why chrisk would protect MtS on the second night, AT ALL. If he did, if you are the doctor, I sure hope he posts why in the forbidden thread so I can read it after I die tomorrow night. Further, since YOU were one of the proponents saying I should be protected last night, why would you have self protected. The ONLY reason they might have targetted you was because of your “vaunted skill”, but your analysis showed up dead wrong, which would make even less sense for them to target you because your analysis would be helpful to hiding them since it seems some people revered your analysis too highly.
Bah, never mind about my role claim idea. All that would seem to get us is 2 dead beat cops 2 nights from now. So screw that.
Sigh, this is crazy. How can everyone be in a power role? BAH!
I see no choice but to believe JSexton for now. I still think he needs to protect Pima though, but I suppose the randomness thing may be better. However if we lose the cop we be screwed.
If JSexton does not get lynched (which he should), then pima has to investigate him tonight. And possibly the next night if it comes up anything except “mafia” “doctor” or “serial killer”.
Which means pima has to survive the night to tell us about what happens.
I’ve said all along that I thought it was a terrible idea from him. No argument from me on this point.
I’d like to know that as well.
Because I didn’t really believe you until this morning, when nesta showed up dead.
I protected myself because I didn’t have any better people to protect, frankly. There weren’t any claimed power roles, aside from a vig I didn’t trust. Also, I didn’t yet know that I was continuing to be wrong, as I didn’t know about Winston until the morning. I’d hoped that I’d turned my streak around with him.
(Just kidding)