Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[glee]

@Pleonast

queues bagpipe music for zuma
He served us well.

And now I think this confirms beyond reasonable doubt, myself as a Mason and Blaster Master as the Vigilante?

Who shall we start with today?

I agree Zuma played really well and that you and Blaster are confirmed.

Given you are the last known Mason, should you risk revealing someone you trust? (i.e. another Mason)
I assume that the Mafia decided the Doctor would guard Blaster or Pima and are targeting Masons.
It’s difficult doing strategy with the Serial Killer being independent, but is it worth revealing such information to stop the Mafia first killing you then claiming the next Mafia facing a lynching is a Mason? (At this point at least one Mason would have to reveal themself.)
I suppose given that the town outnumber the Mafia, ‘one-for-one’ suits us, but at least I’m making a suggestion!

[Rysto]

The Masons should wait as long as possible to out themselves. The later they do this, the more valuable they are to us.

This may be obvious, but pimaspinner, when you give us your results, don’t reveal power roles. Just say Town, Mafia or Serial Killer.

[Pleonast]

I agree we should put JSexton on the backburner. If he’s scum only playing the Doc, the real Doctor can counterclaim when we get closer to the end game. No need to rush that along yet.

And good question about revealing additional Masons. Since the Mafia took down zuma last night, I think it’s reasonable that I’m a prime target for tonight. I don’t want to unilaterally reveal another Mason, though.

I think it’s better to let an unrevealed Mason make a claim. First, let’s see who gets a bandwagon. If it’s a Mason, they can claim and I’ll confirm. No problem.

If our bandwagonee is not a Mason (and assuming they don’t stupidly claim while I’m still alive ), it may be wise for a Mason to voluntarily claim anyway. This will let me confirm and keep the chain of Masonry alive for at least one more night. Thoughts?

[Menocchio]

Vote JSexton
I didn’t believe him before, and I still don’t. Call it role-claim fatigue if you must, but it still seems unlikely to me. Plus, I suspect that he may be the SK.

The serial killer, whoever it is, is pretty damn good at it. Singly, the SK has managed to kill just as many mafia as we have all together. I mean, nesta and now kivvik? I wouldn’t have called either of those.

zuma’s death is no great mystery. With JSexton either himself scum or like as not protecting himself, the masons and other confirmed town become more and more attractive targets. Everyone else is just more scenery for the scum to hide behind. I suppose I’m likely further down that same hit list. Pleo, perhaps it’s time to out any remaining masons? If you’re taken out, we’d have no way to verify them, especially if there’s only one left.

[sturmhauke]

We bagged three scumbags? Hell yeah! Wait, we lost another Mason? Goddammit! This thread should come with one of those warning signs you see on roller coasters.

Anyway, here’s a voting record for Day 3. My previous record can be found here. Again, feel free to make any corrections.

Aguecheek - Day 3 votes - MonkeyMensch, Fern Forest
ArizonaTeach - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
Autolycus - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, MadTheSwine, Autolycus (yes, he voted for himself…)
Blaster Master - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, Suburban Plankton, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
brewha - Day 3 votes - Fern Forest
Fern Forest - Day 3 votes - sturmhauke, pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, unvote
Fretful Porpentine - Day 3 votes - JSexton, kivvik, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
glee - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
hocow - Day 3 votes - MonkeyMensch, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
JSexton - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
Kat - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
Lakai - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
MadTheSwine - Day 3 votes - Pygmy Rugger, MonkeyMensch, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton
Malacandra - Day 3 votes - Fern Forest
Menocchio - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
MonkeyMensch - Day 3 votes - Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
pimaspinner - Day 3 votes - Rysto, glee, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Pleonast - Day 3 votes - JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Pygmy Rugger - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Queuing - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Rysto - Day 3 votes - hocow, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
cowgirl Mk. II (replaced Smitty) - Day 3 votes – none (Smitty didn’t vote, cowgirl stepped in Night 4)
StarvingButStrong - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, JSexton
Storyteller0910 - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, pimaspinner
sturmhauke - Day 3 votes - JSexton, Suburban Plankton

Dead players who were alive yesterday:

FlyingCowOfDoom (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - JSexton - killed Night 4
kivvik (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest - killed Night 4
Suburban Plankton (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - Jsexton - lynched Day 3
zuma (Mason) - Day 3 votes - JSexton, pimaspinner, JSexton - killed Night 4

And, since someone asked for it, I have a summary of claims made, and some other noteworthy events:
Night 2 - only 2 deaths; “trust/distrust” list idea indirectly gets CaerieD killed
Day 2 - JSexton replaces chrisk; Blaster Master makes Vig claim; proposal to direct Vig kills; Pleonast and zuma make Mason claims
Night 3 - only 2 deaths
Day 3 - pimaspinner makes Beat Cop claim, supports Blaster Master as Vig, says FCOD is Mafia; FCOD makes Miller claim; JSexton makes Doctor claim; cowgirl replaces Smitty

[NAF1138]

@glee

I agree with your choice of perpetrators.
As well as Blaster Master being the Vig, we can also confidently accept PimaSpinner as a Beat Cop (he spotted Flying Cow).

NAF1138, did we ever establish if Mafia can kill Mafia?
(It’s vital we know this!)

Ok… I will say that no…mafia cannot night kill another mafia member. I still think that they wouldn’t even ask me, and frankly they deserve to lose the game if they pulled such a gambit, but if it will make your lives easier I will disallow it.

[Menocchio]

@Rysto

The Masons should wait as long as possible to out themselves. The later they do this, the more valuable they are to us.

This may be obvious, but pimaspinner, when you give us your results, don’t reveal power roles. Just say Town, Mafia or Serial Killer.

Agree. Unless investigating a claimed power role. If JSexton came up vanilla town, he could be the Godfather.

[Rysto]

A re-read of the beginning of Day 3 shows that it’s confirmed scum starting the lynch JSexton bandwagon. They’re pushing very hard, too. I know that I’ve said that scum will be trying to misdirect us, but they were so strong they very nearly got JSexton lynched. Now, JSexton claims to have protected himself on Night 3. It’s possible that the scum realized that he’s the Doc and trying to lynch him, knowing that a night-kill was an iffy proposition.

[Malacandra]

Yay! Go town. Will wait for pimaspinner’s report with keen interest, but I have to say I still find JSexton’s claim dubious. On the other hand Rysto makes a good point. I guess I’ll have to wait and see how today’s [del]bickering[/del] deliberation goes.

[Queuing]

A quick read of all of the posts by kivvik shows quite the defense of Autolycus. Over and over again in fact.

In Post 932 she talks about him leaving hints, and how she has picked up on some, even quoting some.

In post 1470 she proposes Winston as a vig kill, and again talks about trusting Autolycus.

post 1709 again lists Autolycus as town (along with myself), wants to hear more from JSexton, and also FOS glee.

1771 trusts Autolycus again as well as talking about JSexton and his analytical skills.

post 1819 First slight disagreement with Autolycus.

1862 addresses Fretful’s idea of whom is scum. This list is (from quoted text in that post) “glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM’s co-conspirators”

1878 answers to some of BM’s theories, and admits to siding with Autolycus.

1942 is the first person to ask that Autolycus not be modkilled. I seconded this motion.

2159 votes for FernForest, even though FF is in danger.

I am not really sure what, if anything, this means. I think it points to Fretful being a citizen, but I suppose that will be (mostly) confirmed by Pimaspinner. I also can’t decide if this is a good or bad thing for Autolycus. My gut feeling (which has stunk so far) is that it is a good thing for Autolycus.

I reiterate the request for Google apps/FTP site, if you think my word doc of kivvik and Suburban Plankton’s posts would be helpful.

RE: Mason claim, unless there is only 1 other left I see no reason for them to claim now. They can claim later, and if there are counter-claims, we still get a scum one way or the other.

[Hockey_Monkey]

YAY! I lived and can post this!!! I put several hours of work into it. First off, a salute to zuma, may you rest in peace my friend.

As promised, I investigated Fern Forest last night. After I got my ID, I went back and scoured his posts, and after looking at his posts with fresh eyes, I think I got the correct ID on him.
:::cue music from Psycho shower scene:::

Fern Forest is the Serial Killer

:::cue thunder and lightning:::

Go back and read these posts with fresh eyes, and see if you agree. Taken one by one, they don’t amount to a whole lot, but take them all together and you see a pattern. (I will allow for the fact that I could be completely wrong here.)

Post #376

@Fern Forest

The Serial Killer’s goal should be to rid the town of Mafia first. A Mafioso majority will insure them victory and him loserdom. If only the town plus the SK is left then he had a hope of being the last alive in a town where the streets run red with blood. Tough job but I hope he does well, just not great. There should be no reason to claim SK since doing so would mean you lose. You don’t get to claim town or mafia victory, you have only your own victory to shoot for.

The vigilante’s goal should also be to rid the town of Mafia first. Then once they are gone, find and kill the SK for Town victory. If he kills the SK too early we’re left with 1 town kill versus 1 mafia kill rather then 3 to 1. A vigilante could claim. Who they attack that night would still go through even if they die. And they could hope to have the doctor protect them giving the town basically two discusable kills per day/night cycle. You know, this could work. Claim and let the town help you decide. Although it’s even better if you keep quiet and the town help you make a decision by talking about who the VG should kill. SK too. If we’re smart we can help direct the three kills. This might help us get even more information by seeing who was urging who else to be killed.

And the last line from the same post:

@Fern Forest

Now who to kill? Who to kill? I feel like a kid in a candy shop. Only the kid is Pugsley and the candy is actually candied eyeballs.

Post #639 Here he tries to steer the Vigilante to kill **Autolycus ** and asks the SK to off Pleonast.

Post #646 He does some analysis on how the SK wins the game.

Post #730 See the pattern developing yet?

Post # 885. Right here he is talking about Autolycus. He asks both the Vig and SK to target him.

Out “stalking” people, eh?

Post #999
BOLDING FOR EMPHASIS

@Fern Forest

Well,ok then. Almost in the spirit of what I meant but not quite. Can you defend your vote and convince people to agree with you? Well I guess you’re right I do talk a lot. Hasn’t convinced me that I’m scum but then I do know what I am.

<SNIP>

This day has covered a lot of posts. It looks like tempers are starting to flare. And I do talk a lot, I’m sorry. When I die you’ll … well you’ll have a lot of posts to review from this guy who didn’t actually know anymore then you guys do. But wasn’t afriad to push for things he thought would work, despite the enemies it may have made him.

Post #1123 A little more theory on the SK.

Asking if the Doc will protect Blaster Master or Jsexton.

Telling Blaster Master that he is doomed, and to make his next kill count. Plus another jab at Autolycus.

Talking to the SK again.

More thoughts on the SK.

Post # 1891

@Fern Forest

Should we ask the Miller to block hocow? Then if there are two kills tonight we’d know a little more.

He knows full well that a block on **hocow ** won’t stop a SK kill, but he could choose not to kill and “confirm” **hocow ** as the SK.

Suggests the miller block **hocow ** again.

Post #1911 Talking to the SK again. See the pattern?

Seemingly fixated on the SK wouldn’t you say?

Suggests SK and Vig attacks…again.

Suggests **FCOD ** is the SK AFTER we know he is either Mafia or Miller per my investigation.

And finally… this.

Of course, please draw your own conclusions from this evidence.

I stumbled upon quite a bit more in my re-read and heavy analysis of the thread. I think I know who the other Beat Cop is, so I will watch for your clues. Maybe we can work together without having to out you.

Do you want to know who the Godfather is? I am pretty sure I’ve figured it out and can provide all my reasoning to go along with it, but someone suggested I don’t reveal power roles except the serial killer. I know not to reveal a mason, or doctor, or GA, or miller, but dontcha wanna know who the GF is? :::biting at the bit to tell:::

Also, for future consideration, we need to look closely at Lakai as mafia. He tried to derail the Suburban Plankton lynch train in post #2194. I noticed this when re-reading.

[JSexton]

@brewha

I would think that the Doc would be a much higher target to the mafia than a mason. I point the FOS squarely at JSexton!

I think the scum were afraid of a self-protect. I’d like to point out that if I was scum, the doc can counterclaim at any point to lynch me. Meaning that if endgame gets near and I’m still alive, you have that option. Be cautious of a scum gambit to do so, of course.

[MadTheSwine]

Damn nice work pimaspinner!RIP zuma and way to go town!

Do we kill **Fern ** today?I think we should.

[JSexton]

@pimaspinner

YAY! I lived and can post this!!! I put several hours of work into it. First off, a salute to zuma, may you rest in peace my friend. snip

Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can’t believe I missed it before.

The only thing I fear is that you’ve been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That’s a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop.

Not impossible, though.

I stumbled upon quite a bit more in my re-read and heavy analysis of the thread. I think I know who the other Beat Cop is, so I will watch for your clues. Maybe we can work together without having to out you.

Don’t post any more about this. Simply state your targets, and he/she can target the same. He/she can crumb as needed and come out if you’ve got enough confirmed scum to make it worthwhile.

Do you want to know who the Godfather is? I am pretty sure I’ve figured it out and can provide all my reasoning to go along with it, but someone suggested I don’t reveal power roles except the serial killer. I know not to reveal a mason, or doctor, or GA, or miller, but dontcha wanna know who the GF is? :::biting at the bit to tell:::

Good god yes! We want that person dead, so absolutely share.

[Rysto]

Sorry, pimaspinner, if I wasn’t clear. I meant “Don’t out pro-town power roles”.

[Queuing]

Wow, good stuff Pima.

Since we have nothing to gain but something that I think is abut 98% sure from having BM kill Fern Forest, I see no reason to potentially lose another person tonight. Regardless of the fact that the SK seems to want a town kill, and has killed quite a few scum.

Lynch Fern Forest

Yes, I think you should out whomever you think is the godfather. Might as well. Don’t want you taking that to the grave.

Continue to post whom you will be investigating. I still think its much more worthwhile for the other cop to investigate a different person. I really don’t see how 50/50 isn’t good enough for anyone. Or whatever it is. You say someone is scum, then dammit lets lynch them.

[Menocchio]

I buy pima’s analysis, which goes a long way towards shutting down my suspicions of Jsexton. I guess I’ll step off at least until later in the game or a credible counterclaim.
Unvote JSexton.
Now, what do we do about Fern? He’s obviously pro-town, and obviously very very good at choosing targets. Now that we’ve got the vig on a leash, could it be in our interests to let him Fern play chicken with us for a while? Try to find other mafia, or at least act as more chaff for the mafia to target without actually killing a townfolk?

Basic strategy says no, but the SK has such a great record that I think it’s worth considering.

[Hockey_Monkey]

I am pretty sure I know who the Godfather is. He is immune from night kills from both the SK and the Vig. Fern Forest tried to kill him, but failed. He then asked for both the SK and Vig to target him in case of a “block”. ** Fern Forest** knew that his hit didn’t go through, but couldn’t out himself as the SK to reveal the identity of the Godfather. Now go back and read my above posts on Fern Forest, especially #885. **Autolycus ** is the Godfather. The only problem with a double hit is that the GF is totally immune to night kills, and that plan would not have worked, but it would have served to make Blaster Master suspicious of **Autolycus ** as the GF if his kill didn’t go through. Then Blaster Master would have been able to put a voice to that, and direct him to be lynched.

And now with **Queuing’s ** analysis of kivvik, I feel that **Autolycus ** is definitely the Godfather.

With this new information now in hand, my thoughts are to lynch Autolycus, and have Blaster Master take out Fern Forest tonight.

[Rysto]

Oh, I think I’ve figured it out. Fern Forest said yesterday that they want sturmhauke dead. Fern Forest is the SK – if Fern Forest wants somebody dead, he can kill them himself. Except for the Godfather. And on Night 2, there was only 2 deaths. Either the Mafia or SK failed to kill someone.

[MadTheSwine]

@JSexton

Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can’t believe I missed it before.

The only thing I fear is that you’ve been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That’s a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop.

Not impossible, though.
Good god yes! We want that person dead, so absolutely share.

I gotta believe that is the correct read plus pima makes a damn good case against Fern and if it is a misread, Fern could still very well be mafia.
I think we neeed to string Fern up today to make the Doc’s job a little easier.

I think it’s a good idea to share your thoughts on the GF pima