Oh. Never mind then. Nice work, pimaspinner.
Vote Autolycus
Ok, I will follow you. I was actually wondering if one reason kivvik was trying so hard to paint Autolycus with the town brush was because he was the godfather, and of utmost importance to the Scum. However I dismissed this idea because I didn’t think it would be a great idea for any scum to be openly protecting of the godfather.
unvote Fern Forest
Lynch Autolycus
Assassinate Fern Forest
Fern Forest goes down without a doubt. A lynch sounds good to me. But we should still pick a Vig target on the off chance of a blunder. And yes, speak up about the Godfather if he’s been spotted.
Hell, you don’t have to tell me twice to lynch Autolycus. Him being the GF makes perfect sense. The persona is too obvious to waste on a lynch, while it invites investigation which could only further deflect suspicion.
Which is why I spent a significant amount of time investigating the result. I didn’t know if I could trust it either. It was not the answer I was expecting. With what I came up with I’m about 90% confident that Fern Forest is the SK. Maybe I am incredibly lucky? 
Heh. Too darn slow.
By the way, I want to be the first to point out that FCoD’s apparent validation of me as town is obvious tosh now we know he wasn’t the (a?) Miller. Fortunately for my case this doesn’t mean I’m scum. 
Assassinate Fern Forest
You know, this could also test JSexton’s claim. If Autolycus is not the Godfather, he must have survived for some other reason. That pretty much would have to be the Doc. JSexton claims that MadTheSwine was protected that night. If Autolycus is not the Godfather, that puts a lot of doubt on JSexton’s claim.
Yippee! I danced the night away, and two more Mafia are dead! Way to go, BlasterMaster and SK.
Also kudos to Pimaspinner for fantastic work! IDs on SK AND the GF?? Super.
So, who does it make sense to kill first? Feeling greedy, I’d like up to figure out who two more mafia are, then we can lynch the GF, aim the SK and Vig at the other two targets.
Unless…if we wipe out all the Mafia, then the SK wins, yes? So maybe Godfather tonight, then Vig the SK.
Must think on this…but wow! What a turn around in mood from Day 2 Dawn to Day 3 dawn.
I may be off base here, but at least one set of the rules says the GF is only immune from Vig kills. Am I missing something?
Math time.
We know there aren’t more than 10 scum to start, cause the mod said so. I think 9 is the most realistic top end, given the 10 vote to lynch rule. How low could it go? 8, certainly. 7? That seems too small, given that the mafia don’t have any powers other than a GF. So I think 9 is the likelist, but 8 is possible.
We’ve got 4 dead scum. Say pima did manage to figure out the godfather, and we lynch that person. 5 scum. BM and Fern both hit mafia. 7 scum dead. We’re still at least one away from being out of scum. At this point, we HAVE to kill the SK. Which means we have to lynch correctly, failing that, Blaster has to hit. Otherwise, we risk the SK taking out the last scum and winning.
So it kinda depends on how certain we are that Fern is the SK, and how many scum we think we can hit. Remember, we can potentially hit 2 mafia overnight.
I think we can let Fern live for now, but if we lynch mafia correctly today, we need to be ready to lynch Fern tomorrow.
That sounds good to me,but we don’t want SK to kill anyone tonight do we? A miller needs to block Fern tonight.
Vote Autolycus
Vig Fern Forest
I PM’d NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted.
One thing I am wondering about:
Pimaspinner openly admitted that he was going to investigate either Suburban Plankton or Fern Forest, whomever was left after the lynching.
Knowing this, why would the SK leave him alive? Same reason the mafia did? Didn’t want to risk a block? To me, if I was the SK, this would have been a risk that was worth taking. Does the doctor protect from all attempted kills? Or just one? Or was Fern Forest willing to rely on the chance that Pimaspinner would be unlucky?
I am not changing my vote. I still trust Pimaspinner. I just find this very odd.
Excellent. Thanks.
I can’t see any benefit to leaving the GF running around. So
Vote Autolycus
Vig Fern Forest
Interesting. The main reason I was calling autolycus town was that I was reading Masonhood into his posts. His talk about getting yelled at by his buds I though translated in Masons hammering him. If he’s not a mason, then I retract my endorsement. As a ploy to draw investigations as GF, his play makes perfect sense.
…
Gambler’s fallacy?
I don’t mean to rain on a perfectly good lynching parade here, but if Fern Forest is really the Serial Killer, does it make sense for him to talk that much about the Serial Killer? Making the point – once or twice – that the serial killer is likely to play on the town’s side would be prudent; keeping such a high profile and mentioning the SK in more than a dozen different posts just seems like it … wouldn’t.
And since there’s only one Serial Killer and a one-in-seven chance that a cop who’s wrong is going to get a Serial Killer reading, it seems to me any given, one-time reading of SK is significantly more likely to be a false positive than a true reading. No?
OTOH, I am all but convinced about Autolycus, because Menoccio’s point makes a hell of a lot of sense.
I agree that it seems somewhat fishy that Fern Forest would talk so much, as well as not even try to kill pimaspinner, but what do we have to lose?
We lynch Autolycus (I also agree with the reasons given by Menecchio, and think that is a hell of a play by Autolycus, ballsy and could have worked very easily, has to this point).
Then BM kills Fern Forest. BM has to kill regardless so we might as well aim him at someone who might be the SK. If not, well we may lose another citizen sure, but the reason Fern Forest was being investigated by Pimaspinner in the first place was because he was next on the lynch list.
We need to get the SK, and bring it down to a 1 night kill status. There is probably 5 Scum left. We should be able to win that battle by 1 to 1 kills.