Fretful Porpentine’s analysis above is right. glee’s is wrong. IRL, glee is a full-time teacher of board and RP games. I am astonished that his grasp of the math is no better… unless he doesn’t want to help us. :dubious:
All right, I’m at a loss. Where do we go from here? Lessee…
Well, in my case, I voted for pima because I was rather firmly convinced that she was scum (my reasoning may be found in a variety of posts Day 3). I was away from my computer for the period of time during which she made her role claim and the rush of votes for Fern Forest and Suburban Plankton happened, so I never had a chance to re-evaluate until the Day was over and the results already in.
I may or may not agree, depending upon your definition of the phrase “participate more.” I know that I simply cannot match the participation level of Queuing or Blaster Master, and I’d say most people in this thread can’t manage it, either. If we start imposing arbitrary post minimums for people, then people will start posting a lot of crap to avoid a lurker lynch, thus giving us more useless material to wade through on our way to the actual useful info.
Was lynching pima really on the table? I, for one, already managed to make myself look dumb accusing her of scumminess, so I’m officially against lynching her now. If she’s scum posing as a Cop, every faux reading she gives us will be useful when we eventually catch her in a lie and off her; if she’s not, lynching her is doing the Mob’s work for them.
I don’t really follow all of this, but tend to hold with Queuing’s simplified version - whatever pima tells us might be right, and it might be wrong; we should avoid making decisions based solely on her findings in any case.
More generally: I think we need to start looking outside the established storylines, as it were, of this thread if we want to identify the Mafia. Does that make any sense? I don’t think the Mafia is going to hide altogether, because that’s suspicious in itself. I do think that they won’t be more than tangentially involved in the more prominent plotlines. We found Suburban Plankton, it seems to me, by going outside of the ongoing discussion. Crap, I don’t think that paragraph made any sense; if someone understands where I’m going with this, throw me a life preserver, OK?
Anyway, I’d like to suggest the following: we have plenty of time. We said after we bulldozed Enfant Terrible Day 1 that we weren’t going to rush our days anymore, and then we (I include myself) went and rushed Day 4 through. I propose that we wait until the (real life) weekend is over to start pushing vote counts in earnest; this will keep those players who don’t get to their computers much during the weekend from falling hopelessly behind, and let the rest of us re-read the thread and start reassessing. Thoughts?
OK, on examining sturmhauke’s spreadsheet, I think I’ve identified three voting patterns that our confirmed Mafia have in common:
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Mafia vote a lot less than townies. Of the 14 deceased players who got a chance to vote, confirmed Mafia cast an average of 1.45 votes on the first three nights; confirmed townies averaged 2.29 votes per night (not counting nights when they were dead, of course).
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Mafia are unlikely to cast their final vote on any given day for a fellow Mafia member. The only possible exception is Suburban Plankton, who cast his final vote on Day 1 for glee, whose status remains undetermined – but otherwise, all final votes are for confirmed townies. kivvik, however, voted and then unvoted for fellow Mafioso FlyingCow on Day 3.
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Three out of four confirmed Mafia members voted and then unvoted Queuing on Day 2. What this means, I don’t know, but I thought it was an interesting common thread.
For what it’s worth, the two current players whose voting records match the patterns of known Mafia on all three points are brewha and StarvingButStrong.
Oh, wonderful. And someone else wanted to know why I was one of only two to NOT vote for Suburban Plankton back on day (3?)
Dammit, I was one of the FIRST to vote for SP. I called one of his posts (the one where he wanted us to a) stop giving the Vig directions on who to kill and b) to kill the vig as soon as he next killed a townie) the scummiest thing I’d ever seen, and voted for him way early in the day. (If necessary, I’ll go look for the post number later.) And I was convinced I was right about him, so I left my vote alone, all through that ‘day.’ And then, when I was doing my last check before leaving for work I saw there seemed to be no chance at all that SP would garner enough votes.
Trying to be a ‘team’ player, I unvoted SP, and cast my vote for JSexton, who I was slightly more suspicious of than whoever the other front runner was at that point.
Then I went to work. When I got back home and could check again, the entire game had blown up. Again. Claims were made, people unvoted and revoted, and suddenly SP had enough votes and was already dead. I think I bitched about it at the time: given how my game has been going, t hat will likely be the only time I catch a scum…and I didn’t get to be in on the kill.
Anyway, that’s why I didn’t end up voting for SP – I simply didn’t get the chance to change back to him.
As for FP’s three points and my matching them – well, I never got a chance to vote Day 1. Again, all hell broke loose while I was at work, and Enfant was a cooling corpse by the next time I was on line.
(I’m sure you’re getting tired of my blaming work, but that’s what happens, I guess, when one person doesn’t have access during business hours while everyone else seems to use exactly those hours to do the majority of their posting. I’ve already resolved not to join in this type of game again – it’s very frustrating for me, and I’m not contributing fully from the point of view of others.)
Where was I. Right. The reason I cast fewer votes than other people is that I spend a lot less time at this game than most players. Mostly I try to find someone I’m really suspicious of, and vote for them. If I’m around when significant disclosures are made later, I’ll change my vote if there’s good reason. Otherwise…
I have no idea what the Queuing vote pattern is about. Truthfully, I don’t remember why I found the Queuing ‘faction’ more suspicious than the other ‘faction’ any more. Guess I should reread.
In case anyone is interested enough to do research–
My post fingering Suburban Plankton was #1827 on page 37.
#2100 is where I reluctantly switched to JSexton
#2275 was my post on returning home to find SP was in fact the lynchee.
Well, that makes two of us – I’m not at all sure that it does mean anything, and so far none of my attempts to analyze voting patterns and catch mafia seem to be working very well. (I was right about kivvik, but that seems to have been entirely an accident.)
So it was suspicious for Autolycus to talk like mafia and yet it would have been suspicious for him to stop talking like mafia? What isn’t suspicious to you?
Hold on. So you would rather lynch annoying citizens than mafia?
That is a little comforting, but getting Suburban Plankton lynched does not prove anything. You could have been voting for him because you thought he would not get enough votes. It’s not unheard of for mafia to vote for mafia.
I can suggest how *not *to go about finding further Mafia. That is, by looking solely at vote records and then not believing anything the poster says afterwards.
I can’t believe you’re trying to defend Autolycus after the fact, here. The guy couldn’t have looked more guilty if he actually came right out and said “I’m mafia”. He wasn’t interested in playing the game, and the only remaining explanations were that he was jerking the rest of his team around for his own amusement, or that he was a mobster, perhaps even the godfather, and was hiding in plain sight.
Frankly, I’m shocked that he lasted as long as he did. He should have been lynched on day 1, giving a tell as strong as he did. It’s probably only because the more active posters got too wrapped up in accusing each other while the scum just sat back.
Please read what I posted. :rolleyes:
“Next, having started in that vein, it would look suspicious for Autolycus to change tack once the Detective was killed.”
My first point is that Autolycus was trying to act suspiciously to get the Detective to investigate him early. The Detective would find a result of ‘Town’ and notify us of that.
Which part of this do you disagree with?
Once the Detective is killed, a Beat Cop has some chance of making a mistake and fingering Autolycus as Mafia. Therefore Autolycus needs to not draw further attention to himself. Suddenly changing his entire persona once the Detective was dead would indeed be suspicious. SO he has to stay ‘in style’.
Which part of this do you disagree with?
Please read what I posted. :rolleyes:
“Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a ‘Townie’.”
I wanted to get the Godfather (don’t you?) and felt there was evidence that Autolycus had a strategy (as per above), which would work if he was the Godfather. (There was other evidence, such as known Mafia supporting him.)
Even if he was Town, I still thought it was better to lynch him than a better Town poster:
“Would you want him to be one of the last Citizens?
His lack of knowledge of the game and his selfish approach could easily lead to him failing to lynch the last Mafia.”
Which part of this do you disagree with?
Lynching a mafia ‘doesn’t prove anything’?
I not only votede for him, but gave reasons which ultimately convinced the majority.
What would satisfy you I was on the Town side?!
And where have I done that?
What exactly have you contributed to the Town?
How do you propose to find Mafia?
Ho, ho. 
Actually I started asking about Beat Cop % chances from post 267 onwards.
Where was your maths then?!
When Pimaspinner posted his suspicions, where was your maths then?
Finally you cast doubt on any Beat cop finding a single role - only after a Citizen has been lynched.
So the net effect of your analysis that a Citizen is dead and we don’t trust some future Beat Cop identifications.
A lesser man than I would say you appear to be helping the Mafia side. :eek:
I have no evidence for that myself, but I wish Citizens would support those of us publishing analysis, rather than criticising.
Yes, you basically took what I meant, and articulated it much better. Thanks.
:smack:
That’s…really stupid, no offense. Let’s say that you were right, and Aguecheek were a beat cop and was leaving a breadcrumb. What is the breadcrumb “ho-ly cow” meant to signify? That he investigated hocow and she’s…what? Mafia, Citizen, Serial Killer, Guardian Angel? Why leave a breadcrumb that gives absolutely no clue as to the indicated person’s role?
Not to mention that I did a whole bunch of pointless work this morning, going through 50+ pages of this thread scrutinizing hocow’s posts based on the recollection that two people suspected her of being SK.
This whole thing is starting to remind me of MadTheSwine’s pursuit of Winston Smith in the previous game.
Good answer **glee. ** I’m done arguing about Auto’s lynching.
I am now suspicious of Malacandra and his lame pursuit of hocow.
Vote Malacandra just to get the ball rolling.
Hmm. On the one hand, Malacandra does have some of the same voting patterns as our known Mafia – relatively few votes, no known final votes for Mafia (unless Queuing turns out to be scum). On the other hand, the “ho-ly cow” explanation is just so goofy it has to be true :smack: 
I mean, if you could make up any story in the world, would you really go for that one?
If anyone is interested here is the GQ thread I started so we can get some good numbers on Beat Cop investigations.
There are few arguments on the specifics but the rough figures for a town of 22 people are:
If a person turns up as town the investigation is roughly 90% right
If a person turns up as mafia the investigation is about 70% correct
If a person turns up as the SK (or any other single role) the investigation is about 30% correct.
So I say that if we get Mafia we lynch, if we get SK we investigate again and if we get town we leave that person alone. 
No, I wouldn’t, but maybe that’s why he went with it.
Oh good. We haven’t lynched each other enough yet. :smack:
Wherever my mathematics has been, it is back. I should have been quicker to spot the mistakes earlier but at least at the outset I didn’t realize what a shite deal the Beat Cop is – the role that is, not the player. It turns out that the Cop is worse than useless at identifying unique roles, even those that he can identify (not the Miller, for a start). Any given “ping” for a unique role is more likely to be wrong than right, and even two different IDs – by the same Cop, or by both – won’t help. (The ID must have been right both times or wrong both times, and “wrong twice” is more likely than “right twice”.)
The one crumb of comfort the Cop has is that as the ratio of scum to town rises, the more likely a scum ID is to be correct. Given, say, seven roles in the game, the break-even point for the Cop is when one-eighth of the cast is scum. We can probably guess that the figures are currently favouring him more than that. :smack:
Now I don’t believe I was slower than the next man to conclude that the Beat Cop’s power is close to useless at picking anyone but vanilla mafia (or vanilla town), but anyone who at this stage is arguing against the plain facts – or whose best defence is to say “Well, anyone who criticises someone else’s efforts must be scummy!” – ought to be viewed with deep suspicion.
As to the whole **hocow ** debacle – well, out on me for a sap, then, but on Day One it seemed as good a lead as any and if **Aguecheek ** were a Beat Cop then it made sense to catch any flak myself rather than mention his name. Y’all gotta remember I’ve never played this game before, and I’ve been suffering severe information overload for some reason.
On preview: I agree with Lakai, with the one proviso that we can never assume that an ID of SK or GA is true, even on repeated investigation.
I think all of this arguing about math is quite silly. It doesn’t really matter people. It all boils down to 50/50. Regardless of whether or not a power role comes up. This is based on the assumption (yes I know) that what NAF does first is find out whether or not the beat cop got it right or not. Wouldn’t that be how you do it? The beat cop investigates whomever, NAF flips a coin to find out if they were right or not. If right then the reading is correct. If wrong, then he probably goes to random.org or something, puts in all the other possible outcomes and whichever comes up, comes up.
I really think we are getting incredibly side-tracked by all this Math discussion and deciding whether or not the beat cop is right. Unless you can reliably say that X is whatever I think we have to assume the pimaspinner is right. So he was wrong about the SK. Big damn deal. The other deaths were because of analysis, not math.
This is a game of reading into what people say, not a game of math. The only way we can figure out whom is what is by reading their posts. The power roles are extra lucky things for us, but not what the game is really about.
That said I have no idea who is what now. I was convinced that Auto was the GF. At some point I suppose I will have to look at whom I think is suspicious and lay down a vote. Probably not today as at some point I have work to do, plus I believe I am coming down with something.
↑
What he said, re: no idea who’s who and I won’t be reading much today, as I’m doing two people’s work right now.
I hope to be able to have something this evening if I get home at a decent time.
Jeers to the Doc/Vig killers. Cheers to the…hm. Maybe next time.