Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[cowgirl]

@Pygmy Rugger

He said the exact thing I did. I think Lakai’s right, you’re just trying to find a bandwagon to drive that the town will ride.

Lynch cowgirl

Yep, I guess that’s why I unvoted.

At this point I have good reasons to suspect everyone … and good reasons not to suspect everyone. So I’m putting up ideas to see if they fly, and checking if other ideas fly with me. Seems a reasonable strategy to me, seeing as I haven’t the slightest idea who to lynch yet.

I’ll point out that you, Lakai, and MadTheSwine (the impromptu team named in your post above) are the three people I FOS’d yesterday. You’re not trying to throw me off your collective trail, are you?

[storyteller0910]

@glee

The net result is that a Beat Cop getting a single player role right first time is only about 30%.
The chances of getting a correct Mafia or Citizen result are much higher. We can trust what a Beat Cop reports in these cases.

…but not completely or absolutely. Right? If you agree, than can we drop it? Because absent some sort of connection to the actual game that we’re playing, the theoretical math isn’t helping us with our task for today - finding a lynch target with whom we can be comfortable. I’ll stipulate that we shouldn’t lynch Lakai now, nor for quite some time, based on pima’s findings; is there any other practical application of all the probability theory that is meaningful right now, less than 20 hours before zero hour?

See, the problem from my perspective is that the vast majority of the discussion from this Day has contributed nothing to our ability to identify the scum. People debating probability is all well and good, but it’s not really suggestive of anything. For all of the posts that we’ve seen today from Queuing and Malacandra, have we really learned anything that might suggest that they are or are not Mafia? I’d say not.

So I spent the last two hours of my day at work re-reading this thread (I’m not going to get fired I’m not going to get fired I’m not going to get fired). My sense of the overall pattern has been, as others have observed, that the Townies get into the dust-ups, the big public arguments with lots of accusations. The Mafia, I’d guess, hangs around the edges of the discussions, egging them on.

I share the belief, first proposed by Menocchio upthread, that Queuing and Malacandra are probably both town - why would a Mafia engage in such a loud and obvious pissing contest with a Townie, knowing that the death of that Townie would only draw attention to that Mafia? So if this proposition is correct, then at least some of the folks bustling around the argument, casting votes for one participant or the other, are probably opportunistic scum. Discounting the two of them (who have voted for one another), Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach, and pima have all voted for either Malacandra or Queuing; glee has pushed the continuance of the math debate, without voting.

I am not suspicious of Fretful, at the moment, and I am inclined to believe pima as the Beat Cop. That leaves ArizonaTeach, glee, and Aguecheek. However, right now I have no strong evidence apart from this reasoning to select one from this group.

Meanwhile, Pygmy Rugger continues to peg the ol’ scumdar. He seems inclined to take wild-eyed runs at whoever seems convenient at the time, including cowgirl today, and his justifications always seem a bit ad hoc.

So, for the moment, I am going to vote Pygmy Rugger, and call on him to defend his various vote and FoS choices.

Caveat: I’m also going to spend some time taking a closer look at the glee/Aguecheek/ArizonaTeach trio from above, and see how their voting records look. My vote may change.

[Hockey_Monkey]

Unvote Malacandra for now. Thanks for addressing my question.

[Hockey_Monkey]

Pygmy Rugger, MadTheSwine, and **glee ** have all been worthy of scrutiny, and I will be happy with a lynching of any of these three. I don’t know which yet is more worthy of the noose today.

Current vote count:

**Malacandra ** - 1- Queuing

**brewha ** - 1 - monkeymensch

**arizonateach ** - 2 - kat, lakai

**Queuing ** - 4 - Malacandra, Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach

**MadTheSwine ** - 1 - Menocchio

**cowgirl ** - 1 - Pygmy Rugger

**hocow ** - 1 - Pleonast

Pygmy Rugger - 1 - storyteller0910
I really don’t think that **Queuing ** is scum, and if he is, we’ve all been royally played. I already unvoted Malacandra. brewha, ArizonaTeach, cowgirl, and **hocow ** haven’t really done a whole lot to raise any suspicion for me. Maybe I should find this suspicious? :dubious: **MadTheSwine ** and Pygmy Rugger have at various points throughout the game been called on the carpet. I’m leaning toward one of these two right now. We don’t have a whole lot of time left to decide, and if we don’t, Great And Powerful **NAF ** will choose for us. I really don’t want that to happen.

[NAF1138]

@pimaspinner

We don’t have a whole lot of time left to decide, and if we don’t, Great And Powerful **NAF ** will choose for us. I really don’t want that to happen.

FYI, I only choose in the case of a tie. Otherwise the person with the most votes “wins”. You might not want someone with only 4 votes being your lynch victim though. So your point is still a good one.

17.5 hours left folks.

[Kat]

@ArizonaTeach

The difference being (and not out of the blue like you insinuated originally) was that my response to **zuma ** referencing **Gadarene ** was a direct response to **zuma’s ** accusations toward Gadarene. **Gadarene’s ** response seemed to me, at the time, when suspicion was starting to go her way, to desperately pull someone out of thin air to help further her cause. And I will freely admit that I didn’t want to be associated with someone who had been FOS big time by that point. Someone, I might add, who turned out to be town.

I want to apologize first, I never meant to imply that the vote for Gadarene came out of the blue, I was just tired and failed to adequately explain my suspicions, and you were right to call me on it.

I’m satisfied with your explanation (well, for now at least ) and unvote ArizonaTeach. And damn, that leaves me without a good suspect.

I’d still like to see the “smoke and mirrors” posts that cowgirl mentioned of Pygmy Rugger’s, though. She linked to one of his posts only, in the post where she FoS’ed him for his 4 votes and “smoke and mirrors” posting.

[StarvingButStrong]

**Queuing ** - 4 - Malacandra, Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach

See, I found this ve-ry in-ter-est-ing, as Artie Johnson used to day.

I’ve been rereading this thread over the past few days, and I’d gotten up to the point where Queuing was in the thick of the suspects – and I thought there hadn’t been anything at all pointing at him for, oh, a score of pages or more. Which made me figure there had been widely accepted ‘evidence’ of his towniness I was not recalling. (Hey, I have a leaky memory, I admit it.)

So I asked about that, and Queuing replied. Fine.

But all of sudden Queuing was back on the top of the lynch list.

And I go hmmmm. Is it just that I brought him to mind? Were all these people suddenly re-evaluating the ‘evidence’ and finding it wanting?

OR

Was it that my question (unintentionally, I swear) served as a opportunity – a chance to restart a bandwagon against Queuing without looking like the one who was starting it? If accused of going after Q, they could point at my post and say ‘she started it’?

As in, if we ended up lynching Queuing and he is revealed as Town, they could cheerfully say ‘Aha, SBS must be Mafia!’ and fit me for the noose tomorrow, and gain yet another town death. (Yeah, the rest of you can’t know I’m town, but I do.)
And it’s not just the fast votes of Q that bother me, it’s the people voting for him. Malacandra, ArizonaTeach, and Aguecheek are all three high on my distrust list. Fretful Porpentine not so, but if there’s anything rereading this thread with a list of about 22 IDs know for sure has taught me, it’s that there’s been a helluva lot of votes BY known town AGAINST known town.

Sorry, long winded. Bottom line, I think there’s a definite Mafia driven bandwagon vs. Queuing going on right now.

I’m torn which of the three to vote for, but I kind of buy that Malacandra might be too outspoken to be Mafia, and I nearly voted for Aguecheek earlier for other reasons, so…

VOTE AGUECHEEK

[Queuing]

Damn I am still in the lead! I hope its because I talk to much and not because Aguecheek has FOS me as the SK. That would be ballsy of me to hide so much in the open if I was the SK, but alas I am not that smart. Nor am I the SK.

As to the whole Malacandra thing, I still don’t see how he has posted much of any use. Analysis is what we need. Regardless of how correct it turns out to be. This is why I am not very suspicious of Rysto and why I think not many of you are either. His posts always contain useful analysis, regardless of whether or not we know if its true. This cannot be said for Malacandra, as I think I have shown. Not sure if thats enough to lynch him, but I had him on my list of suspects so what the hell? I might as well leave my vote where it is, for now.

I have looked at all Hocow’s posts as well, and I find that they contain useful analysis most of the time (or drinking posts, maybe a mention of an orgy). I don’t have the links active yet, so I won’t be posting it yet.

I think it would be a great idea if we ALL did that. Take one person who is still alive, go through all of their posts and find out what they have to say. I realize that there is not much time left today, so I don’t expect this idea to get any play, but I think its a good idea. At the very least it would provide an easy to retrieve receptacle of all of every players posts. You just need to go “find all post by poster” and then go through and open each vote in a different tab. If we all did one we would have a very large, easy to read information source. This is what the town needs. A way to make this monster thread easier to read. You suspect someone you go to one post to find all of their posts.

So what do you think?

[MadTheSwine]

@Queuing

Take one person who is still alive, go through all of their posts and find out what they have to say. I realize that there is not much time left today, so I don’t expect this idea to get any play, but I think its a good idea. At the very least it would provide an easy to retrieve receptacle of all of every players posts. You just need to go “find all post by poster” and then go through and open each vote in a different tab. If we all did one we would have a very large, easy to read information source. This is what the town needs. A way to make this monster thread easier to read. You suspect someone you go to one post to find all of their posts.

So what do you think?

I think its a good idea,but no way it can be utilized today,due to time constraints…it will have to wait til tomorrow.I also think, if we are all in agreement, that a known town should assign each player a person to investigate.

I am still reading the thread and am only on page 21,don’t think I will have time for a full read,but I will post my findings before the day is done.

[Queuing]

163, 174, 197, 535, 1644, 1652, 1788, 2292, 2299, 2307, 2314, 2328, 2409, 2606, 2670, 2680.
12 hour countdown vote 545

post 350 -FOS auto due to his lingo, and says justification of killing old players was so others get to play

post 361 -apology to BM for not quoting in above theory

post 694 -posts analysis
- why I was suspicious of BM (caerieD killing after he had asked about it, etc)
- bread crumb of menecchio
-questions why the sturmhauke bandwagon (which I somewhat led due to his play from earlier game)
-doesn’t like my fierce defense of chrisk because of it most likely being hypothetical (which I always said, but saw no harm in believing him)
- trust lists says hard to use until the person is dead (however that was the point of them)
-Asks why Malacandra is so suspicious of her

post 725 votes for BM, suspects he is the SK due to some posts of BMs, as well as death of caerieD

post 846 -wonders again whats up with malacandra’s FOS, BM’s as well

post 848 -questions own judgment about BM and Malacandra, wonders if they might be masons

post 952 wonders about a post from pimaspinner who tried to defend pygmy rugger. Wonders about Pima’s role

post 1697 wonders why BM suspects her as SK
-says she trusts confirmed townies, and me due to day 2 stuff, but not me completely as it could have been a good move by scum to do what I did.

post 1728 acknowledges that BM is a good guy after questioning.
-wonders again about the Malacandra FOS
-also questions the idea of keeping the VIG around as to many deaths are bad for the town

post 1740 -apologizes for gender confusion re: Malacandra and asks again for some justification

post 1773 -aguecheek FOS’d hocow as well (quoted) due to voting pattern for not voting day 1 and then voting for BM.
-reiterates request for malacandra to say whats up with the FOS

post 1840 agrees with aguecheek in regards to MonkeyMensch, and asks for explanation
-points out that MTS was trying to detract attention from SP and onto sturmhauke. (from a known scum to a know mason now at least)

post 1841 -now trusts aguecheek because of error by monkey mensch

post 1858 -monkey mensch quoted, and the quote says abunch of nothing from MM. Hocow votes for MM here.

post 1936 -denies being SK (gives good reasons, but the SK is a very hard role to catch and good reason why you aren’t are easy to come up with

post 2002 -based on role claim unvotes monkeymensch and votes for FCOD

post 2088 -denies being scum

post 2204 -unvotes FCOD, votes fern forest

post 2407 -feels confident of JSexton, believes autolycus could be GF, and votes for him as well as vig killing FF
-suspects Malacandara of being scum. Mostly because he hadn’t voted for auto but had voted for the vig kill

So what does mean to me? I don’t see scum here. I see a citizen who has posted analysis, and has answered any accusations against her. That is what I see at least.

[Queuing]

One other thing that I have just noticed. Malacandra never voted for the 12 hour countdown. The countdown was mentioned around page 10, went to page 12. Malacandra posts on this page (12) and yet doesn’t say anything, even though it wasn’t official yet.

[Menocchio]

Still think that Queuing and Mal are both town.

Think SBS may be on to something

Unvote MadTheSwine
Vote Aguecheek

[Lakai]

@ArizonaTeach

**Gadarene’s ** response seemed to me, at the time, when suspicion was starting to go her way, to desperately pull someone out of thin air to help further her cause. And I will freely admit that I didn’t want to be associated with someone who had been FOS big time by that point. Someone, I might add, who turned out to be town.

You think you can fool me with this? Over in post 1524 you say:

Conjecture: If Gadarene is scum, he obviously knows that zuma and I aren’t. Therefore he was trying to emphasize a rivalry between us. I had mentioned, yes, that zuma was starting to post crazy, which even zuma, to some degree, agrees with. But why point that out like that? To start the seed with a bandwagon against zuma, and when zuma is confirmed townie, to say, “Well, ArizonaTeach is the one that started that bandwagon,” and another townie would be lynched.
Alternately, if Gadarene dies and is confirmed mafia, is someone going to look at that as a breadcrumb and say, “ArizonaTeach and Gadarene were on the same side!”

In the first quote you think Gadarene is a girl and in the second you think he is a man! :eek:

Ok I’ve got nothing. Unvote ArizonaTeach.

[ArizonaTeach]

@Kat

I want to apologize first, I never meant to imply that the vote for Gadarene came out of the blue, I was just tired and failed to adequately explain my suspicions, and you were right to call me on it.

I’m satisfied with your explanation (well, for now at least ) and unvote ArizonaTeach. And damn, that leaves me without a good suspect.

Oh thank God. I was blocking out like an hour and a half of time this evening to try to build my case (between *House * and bedtime) for “Kat is trying to frame me” and I really need to grade essays tonight…

But now I see that I’m on **StarvingButStrong’s ** list. Sigh - when it rains…! The reason I went with **Queuing ** was primarily because I already had two votes against me at the time and **Pleonast ** was threatening to vote for anyone who didn’t vote tonight. I did NOT want three votes on my tail, two of which weren’t even based on suspicious behavior (**Lakai ** voted because I hadn’t responded to Kat yet - it was 10 in the morning on a work day! And **Pleonast ** might have because I hadn’t voted today yet). Now, why did I pick Queuing? Well, overly defensive and the whole Gadarene vs Queuing thing. What I didn’t do, however, was look carefully at who else was voting.

Heh…and now that I’ve been looked at sideways for unvoting when I was in a voting block with people I find suspicious…you can understand I’m a little gunshy about unvoting because the people I’m in the voting block with are suspicious…!!! Wow. This is a Catch-22 of magnificent proportions.

So I am NOT going to unvote right now. Augecheek is an excellent choice, but we’ll see where things are tomorrow morning.

(Incidentally, I’ve started playing this in my classroom as a bonding experiment with my AP seniors – the werewolf version. On the first night the Guardian Angel picked the person the wolves picked and the kids voted to exile - no lynching here! - one of the werewolves. Unreal. Why can’t we have that kind of luck.

[Kat]

@ArizonaTeach

Oh thank God. I was blocking out like an hour and a half of time this evening to try to build my case (between *House * and bedtime)

Well, this proves it right here. Obviously if you watch House you can’t be Mafia.

[Lakai]

Rysto, you got anything to say about today? You seem unusually quiet.

[StarvingButStrong]

Just a FYI: the medical office I work in is shut down this week (due to the Dr. having a family thing) and so hopefully I’ll be able to participate more than usual.

[Santo_Rugger]

@storyteller0910

<snip>
Meanwhile, Pygmy Rugger continues to peg the ol’ scumdar. He seems inclined to take wild-eyed runs at whoever seems convenient at the time, including cowgirl today, and his justifications always seem a bit ad hoc.

So, for the moment, I am going to vote Pygmy Rugger, and call on him to defend his various vote and FoS choices.

Caveat: I’m also going to spend some time taking a closer look at the glee/Aguecheek/ArizonaTeach trio from above, and see how their voting records look. My vote may change.

I will address this in detail first thing in the morning, if necessary (my work computer has a -much- bigger screen than my laptop).

In brief, it seems very suspicious to me that cowgirl joined the game and started posting things out of context from Day 1. For example (I can look up post numbers and links tomorrow if anybody asks), she asks MtS to describe a FoS he pointed circa post 300, on the very first day. She chastises him for this, even though random FoS on the first day is the only way we have to garner information. Then, she says this:

@cowgirl

At this point I have good reasons to suspect everyone … and good reasons not to suspect everyone. So I’m putting up ideas to see if they fly, and checking if other ideas fly with me. Seems a reasonable strategy to me, seeing as I haven’t the slightest idea who to lynch yet.

For some reason, she doesn’t like when MtS does it on Day 1, but it’s ok for her to do it today.

Also, she refers to people posting math and vote counts as “smoke and mirrors”, a way to pad your thread post count without actually saying anything, saying that is scum behavior. However, in post 2801, she posts a vote count.

These two examples* of, “Do as I say, not as I do,” seem very scummy to me.

*I think there’s a couple more examples, but I’ll have to look tomorrow.

[Santo_Rugger]

Ummm, the circa 300 (380? 308?) post think might have been Lakai. Sorry.

[cowgirl]

@Pygmy Rugger

In brief, it seems very suspicious to me that cowgirl joined the game and started posting things out of context from Day 1. For example (I can look up post numbers and links tomorrow if anybody asks), she asks MtS to describe a FoS he pointed circa post 300, on the very first day. She chastises him for this, even though random FoS on the first day is the only way we have to garner information.

Again: the FOS at MadTheSwine wasn’t because of his random vote (because we were all doing it), it was because of the decisiveness of his random vote. And please note I retracted the vote and am not a part of any bandwagon, as I’m equally implicating you and Lakai.

Also, why was it “out of context”? The context was that CaerieD said she trusted Menocchio, and MadTheSwine called them both scum. Which context is missing?

Also, why would a post circa 300 be irrelevant now? Everyone who’s mafia now was mafia at post circa 300 too.

If we aren’t getting many clues from recent posts (which I am not, since most of you look kind of scummy and kind of towny to me at this point), then where should we get them from? The remaining Mafia players in this game are clearly all playing pretty well and not leaving any unambiguous signs. All we have to go on are suspicions (even ones dating back a few pages), and I feel mine has been quite reasonable.

Methinks perhaps Pygmy Rugger doth protest too much.