Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

Nothing posts :Post 90, 119, 125, 186, 206, 211, 503, 1940, 2223, 2667
Drinking posts: 559, 566, 1612, 1631, 2215, 2294, 2349 (also talks about Dawn)
Rule posts: 419, 426
Correction posts: 1187, 1601
Gender: 1729, 1817, 1839

The vast majority of the rest of his posts are just fluff. No real analysis, much like the ones above, except with these I bothered to turn them into links.
post 101 votes for Nesta, after s/he had voted for him. Nesta is scum, we know that, neither of these 2 were in any danger, and it could be scum covering for scum. Or not. Could just be day 1 “fun”

post 405 FOS Hocow, and votes for Autolycus. He mentions the idea, later brought up, of Auto running a double bluff
post 436 unvotes auto, votes to join the lynch mob to get Enfant Terrible. He lays down a trust/distrust list. Trusts glee, Gadarene and zuma and distrusts auto and hocow. No reasons given for any of these, except “auto for being a dick”

post 580 responds to a post from rysto, about the DR, and how the DR is just “whistling in the dark”, mentions death of DET. No analysis.

post 812 responds to post by lakai, about how his posts have no value, says he will post value, and talks about being a guy. His promise of posts with value are a long time coming, if they ever do. They don’t, not until post 1600 (I will get to it) and the math posts.

post 814 -responds to post by fretful, talking about people who switched from auto to EF vote day 1
-talks about hocow again, says can’t define but gives vague reasoning about being a cop and not wanting to out himself, or spotting a hint from someone else and not wanting to out them
-votes hocow
-never explains the switch, beyond it being day 1 and someone dies most likely on a bandwagon

post 861 -responds to hocow, about the FOS, again never says why, just makes a little comment about “voting for him to see what happens” again.

post 1178 -talks about how much thread has grown, unvotes hocow and votes gadarene. No reason given.

post 1186 talks about BM being a vig, and killing at behest of town. No suggestions as to who, nothing important said here. See a pattern yet?

post 1212 -talks about switching votes once BM announces target, nothing else here.

post 1251 -talks about me falling on my sword, unvotes gadarene, votes for me, assassinate Zuma. Nothing else (you know like analysis).

post 1263 -answers me, as I asked him why he thinks BM gets a choice, says nothing beyond oops sorry, I just vote like a townie.

post 1266 responds to Starvingbutstrong proposal of conditional VIG kill, he agrees with the idea. Says nothing else.

post 1600 -something useful, for the first time. Talks about masons and counterclaiming, and how counterclaims may be good for the town, as it gets 1 scum for sure.
-FOS hocow again, but saying does not want to explain further
(Why the hell not? If he was a cop don’t you think he would have investigated more then one person by now? If not he is a lousy cop. I think its just the idea of trying to show cop like attitude while FOS a known non scum is it because he is scum?)

post 1707 -quotes post by glee, which talked about the BM kill and how it pretty much makes BM look good to her. Also hypotheses that nesta was killed by SK to extend game, and talks about the benefit to the SK of announcing vig kill as that allows the sK to choose different target
-malacandra responds with reasonable response, saying its in SK’s favour to shorten not extend game, then talks about how he is uncomfortable with the SK running around, and wants him dead anyway he can be killed
-also mentions that maybe BM is scum, and scum killed Winston smith, admits unlikely but not worth dismissal (further attempts to muddy water maybe?)

post 1708 -wants vig kill on hocow again

post 1711 -response to post by kivvik about SK hitting BM, Malacandra reminds about DR

post 1713 -talks about assumption of DOC protecting BM, again issues caveat that BMmight be scum, but says happy with assumption he isn’t
-talks about trawling thread and getting nothing, but maybe that’s because he is a n00b (due to warning, that is how he spelled it, not an insult)

post 1715 -talks about how SK/VIG don’t know everyone elses roles, and how the scum might have killed to cover BM

post 1717 -offers 2 possibilities, BM is VIG or BM is scum, says him being VIG more likely

post 1720 -talks about how BM head is on the block, and how the town picking a vig kill allows him to say ooops sorry
-also talks about who killed what in the night, and how its more likely that SK got Nesta, and the scum went after BM who was protected by DOC
posy 1721 -random kills are bad, talks about how its good for game to go on as scum might get in an argument and out themselves (odd what with his new posting doesn’t matter stance)

post 1726 -who the doc should have protected, how it should be random

post 1727 -Zuma had asked if BM was not the VIG, shoud VIG out himself
-says no, and how BM could just be vanilla running interference for VIG or how he could be scum and scum will kill who he says unless he says scum, and then they won’t.

post 1730 -hypothetical “if I was SK, I would want VIG out ASAP, and wouldn’t defend the VIG when no FOS was at me” (I am not really sure of the point of this post)

post 1744 -game theory about whom DOC is protecting, says he believes BM is VIG, talks about randomness, etc
-again hocow asks why the FOS, still no reasons given, says it’s a hunch, reluctant to explain as it will give away someone else. Says its better for town
(come on, still on hocow? For so long and no reasons given? In all fairness he has come up with an excuse recently)

post 1842 -says he sucks at this game, likes to only argue game theory and math, unhits Hocow, as know is no longer suspicious of said shout out that he still won’t name. (He has now)

post 2091 -quotes Kat, as Kat FOS’s him
-apologizes for always going after hocow, says he thought he spotted a cop shout-out first day, but again refuses to actually talk about it, makes vague threats against the one who asks for him to explain
-talks about SK winning if they engineer a mob victory, votes for FF and vig kill FCOD

post 2095 -talks about how FCOD claims to have blocked him, 2x in fact, and that it didn’t affect the killing
(why did FCOD say he blocked malacandra 2x? For that matter, why me 1x?)

post 2128 -reiterates that FCOD blocked him 2x, and the night kill dropped once which disallows him being a loose cannon (unless he is leing, which he was), also talks about it being a small chance that he is scum, and that the more he convinces the town he is town, the more scum will value his life. In other words the scum will kill him, but that that would be ok because if he dies and power roles survive.

post 2209 -claims to just be a citizen ; claims to find jsextons claim fishy, as someone as experienced as him would know the DOC in the open is useless

post 2383 -FF goes down for sure, and encourages pima to speak up about GF., and talks about vig kill
(where is your math now? Oh wait, it was because you were happy? You were giddy? Huh?)

post 2386 -talks about FCOD validating him as town (huh? When did he do that? With his blocking?) means nothing, and how it doesn’t mean he is scum either
-vig kill FF (still no math? Oh right, giddy, I forgot)

post 2417 -responds to FOS by hocow, who says

“Malacandra, I have never been so suspicious of you as I am right now. I noticed you voted for a VIG kill of Fern Forest, but did not respond at all to the claim of Auto being the Godfather. I think you may be trying to help your team by voting for the SK, but you are also being on the sly about a Godfather attack. Perhaps, you thought you would side with the town on one issue, thereby hoping we would overlook the fact that you didn’t touch the GF claim. You’re officially number one on my list of unconfirmed players.”

-blames hamster for eating his post, says he say analysis of FF, and autolycus but doesn’t want to start the countdown
-wants SK dead
-no real analysis here, or his math again

post 2419 wants pleonast to out the remaining masons, and says hey we can play chicken with scum that way. (great plan), asks for dissenters. I promptly dissent, as that was a very bad idea IMO.

post 2428 -responds to me, about why masons shouldn’t claim. I used the idea that he himself had talked about way back in post 1600. He seems to have forgotten the only useful he has posted up to now. I wonder why? Could he be fishing for all the masons?

post 2526 -responds to BM talking about idea he had proposed earlier about masons claiming, says it’s a bad idea now, and how unconfirmed townies make it easier to hide beat cop
-votes autolycus

post 2677 -talks about how there will be lots of Qs if SK isn’t killed tonight, pima.

post 2720 -FINALLY talks about his suspicions of hocow, and how he thought aguecheeks response to something (he doesn’t say what) of “ho-ly cow” was a disguised crumb. No matter that it doesn’t say what kind of crumb. And now his math appears. Why did it not appear when it might have done some good? Oh, because he knew FF wasn’t scum at the very least. Now he wants to throw some suspicion of pima.
-talks about how scum want to kill SK too. Of course they do. That is why your math didn’t make an appearance until today. You knew we were going after SK at best, town at worst

post 2721 -says Fretful is correct, glee is wrong, and why is glee wrong? Maybe scum ? slight FOS at glee

post 2737 -responds to lakai voting for him, not with a defense, not with anything useful, just with oh god as if we haven’t lynched each other enough

post 2738 -his math makes another appearance, wonders why he didn’t notice it before. Talks bout the beatcop is useless at ID power roles
-talks about how anyone who argues against plain facts (all the while ignoring the fact the cop is right 50% of the time) should be viewed with suspicion
-again says he is sorry about the hocow thing, and wanted to make sure that his suspicions of aguecheek being beat cop were not ID’d.
-says agrees with lakai and that the ID of the SK or GA can never be confirmed (well so what? You have a better idea on how to get the SK?)

The rest of his posts are our little fight, and more math. Again no analysis, nothing but the fact that I FOS’d him, and my saying the math doesn’t matter, which you know it still hasn’t been shown that it does. Definitely not at this time. Maybe later, when they aren’t a lot of people still left, but not now.

Didn’t preview, sorry. I was worried about a hang and didn’t want to lose that post.

Anyway, why did I get so defensive? Well he basically called me a moron numerous times, never once answered any of my accusations, and still hasn’t beyond the defense of “oh I was excited” For 24 hours you were excited? However if that is a good enough reason to lynch me, then ok, go ahead. Seems kind of lame to me, but whatever. Agreeing with JSexton, whom himself never bothered to explain is ok. I would like to know the WHY, but I suppose liking to know something does not equate with getting to know something.

**Malacandra ** - 1 - Queuing

**brewha ** - 1 - monkeymensch

**ArizonaTeach ** - 2 - kat, Lakai

**Queuing ** - 4 - Malacandra, Aguecheek, Fretful Porpentine, ArizonaTeach

**MadTheSwine ** - 2 - cowgirl, Menocchio

It seemed odd to me, at the time,that CaerieD threw your name out as the only trusted player in the game…at that point you hadn’t posted much of anything,never occurred to me she could be the detective and was leaving a bread crumb.

Wow. Giant post, with much to go check into.

But I was struck by one minor point:

“while FOS a known non scum”??

When did Hocow become a known non-scum? What did I miss?

According to my own not-wonderful records, the only people I’m considering non-scum are:

Menocchio (due to Detective ‘crumb’)
Pleonast (mason)
Sturmhauke (mason)

Pimaspinner (probably, due to cop claim)
Lakai (probably, assuming Pimaspinner isn’t lying or unlucky)

And, of course all our dearly departed.

So, what makes you call Hocow non scum?

Incidentally, I explained about hocow already. I never claimed to be a cop, but I thought I was shielding Aguecheek whose crumb I thought I’d spotted. I’ve never claimed any status but Citizen.

Shoot, I forgot to actually SAY anything about Malacandra.

To be 100% honest, I don’t know if he is scum or not. I find it odd that he has posted 82 times in this thread without saying much of anything. The only thing that I see he has contributed is FOS against hocow for some far fetched reason that doesn’t even tell us if the crumb was suppose to be town or scum.

As well he was one of the first to point out how counter-claims of masons would be actually good for the town as we would for sure get 1 scum that way. This can be read as pro-town (lets hope we get some counter-claims we would get ourselves some scum) or anti-town (hey all my scum buddies don’t counter claim here is why).

Then he came out and suggested numerous times that BM might actually be scum and not the VIG. I do not know if he was the only one doing so, but he did so numerous times. This can also be taken 2 ways. Pro-town (hey, lets not just believe him, lets consider the idea that he is scum and will kill so long as he knows its town) or anti-town (ohoh, they have the ability to get 2 kills per cycle now, lets throw some dirt in the water and try to muddy up the faith in BM).

Then he asks about masons, and outing themselves. Forgetting his earlier posts about how masons and counter-claims were actually good for the town. He asks for dissenters, and when I quickly voice my displeasure at this idea he says ok, sounds good. Still its a little odd that he asked considering his posting history.

The last thing of importance he has posted is the math posts. These posts basically say “we can’t trust what Pimaspinner reports, particularly with power roles”. However this all came conveniently AFTER pimaspinner had ID’d one power role, and thrown the FOS on Autolycus. Nothing was said by Malacandra during the rush to lynch and vig kill. Nothing was said until after the fact. Little was said before someone (forgive me, I forget who) suggested FOSing lower post players. Then the math starts to spew.

So do I think Malacandra is scum? TBH I don’t know. Not even sure. I do think if he is town he has provided very little in the way of analysis. Even faulty analysis is good as it gives all of us an idea of how you think, and perhaps ideas we can later follow up one. Point in case, pimaspinners analysis of Autolycus. It was wrong, but it was intriguing.

On preview, oh sorry about that StarvingButStrong. What I meant was he would FOS a known-non scum because he would know who was scum. I don’t think his FOSing of hocow was that big a deal. He has explained the why behind it.

That’s a pretty good defense. It’s the exact same reasoning that (we presume) the Mafia used to identify the Detective in the first place. I can see now that CaerieD’s post would equally look mafia-ish to a townie.

Of course, it would also be a good example of (many dozens of pages of) post-hoc reasoning. But for now, I am not convinced enough to drive this bandwagon, so unvote MadTheSwine.

I’m having a hard time deciding who is scum…**Malacandra ** or Queuing. Or if either actually are. Or if both are.

Sorry Malacandra, but I’m also having a hard time deciding what your stance on me in particular is. You were right on board with everyone else when I fingered FF as the SK. Then after we (Yes WE) lynched **Autolycus ** the Citizen, you said there will be some very searching questions if we don’t nail the SK. Then in this post, you give me a very sarcastic “well done”. Ow, that one hurt. It seems as though you are trying to cast me in a scum light without actually coming out and saying it. Like again here where you say I would have some “serious ‘splainin’” to do about now. Then in post 2764, you say not to judge me too harshly. In post 2769, you point out again that I could be a liar. So, I’m sorry but I’m not quite sure what you are trying to do here. A couple of times you’ve suggested that I will have some questions to answer, but you haven’t asked any. Are you scum, vaguely casting suspicion my way so that you can back up after I am confirmed as the beat cop?

And just as a hypothetical, if I investigate someone that comes up as a “pro-town role”, I’m not going to say that person is “X”. How would that impact all this math analysis? It doesn’t really. The plain and simple fact is I’m either right or wrong based on the flip of a freakin’ coin. I got lucky with FCOD. I was lucky when I was investigating Blaster Master – after his role claim. I had something to look for there. I was notably unlucky with Fern Forest, and based on my analysis of his posts, I also fingered Autolycus. I don’t know yet about Lakai. I guess we won’t know that until after he is dead. Yes this is a crappy role, but we did get one scum because of me.

Right now vote Malacandra. This could change if I hear some good arguments for someone else or if **Malacandra ** can answer my question.

Hiya, pimaspinner. All through I’ve been trying to give both sides of the argument, which is why I don’t rule out the possibility that you’re a liar. But I certainly don’t call you scum over the Fern Forest horror, not now that I’ve done the mathematics - none of us realized in time that the way the Beat Cop’s 50% failure chance is actually handled means that SK and other unique roles turn up as false positives more often than true ones. As already stated, non-unique roles, chiefly “Citizen” and “Mafia”, are reasonably trustworthy - they’ll both turn up as true positives quite a bit more often than false ones.

Really, if I’d given a lead, even in good faith, that had seen two townies end up dead in one day, I’d be facing some "serious ‘splainin’ " too. You’ll hardly object to me merely mentioning the fact? Other players can give their opinion on your explanation; I consider it a reasonable one and I hope you’ll last long enough to come up with some more Citizen/Mafia results. They’re the ones we can put the most trust in and if you do wind up dead, that pretty much validates your results as having been in good faith (assuming that you do show up as Cop, which I’d call likely).

Whether that’s enough to persuade you to redirect your vote… well, I’ll have to leave that to your judgement.

He said the exact thing I did. I think Lakai’s right, you’re just trying to find a bandwagon to drive that the town will ride.

Lynch cowgirl

The one thing that seems to hold true is that the loudest, most frequent posters on this thread are well intentioned but suspicious looking town.

Since last night’s deaths, here’s the post count to the best of my knowledge.
I’m not even going to try to get all the names exactly right.

Malacandra - 17
Queuing - 16
Lakai -12
Pygmy Rugger - 11
Brewha - 11
Fretful Porpentine - 8
Cowgirl - 7
Pimaspinner - 8
Glee - 6
Kat - 6
Menniochio - 4
MonkeyMensch - 4
StarvingbutStrong -4
Rysto - 3
ArizonaTeacher - 3
Storyteller - 3
MadTheSwine - 2
Sturmhawke - 2
Aguecheeck - 2
Pleonast - 2
howcow - 1

I’m not saying that frequent posters are innocent or that lurkers are scum, but there does seem to be a trend. I did notice that howcow’s only post was a single word with a grumpy smiley. I wonder where he has been.

The spat between Malacandra and Queuing reminds of the day two spectacle where nothing good happened. I don’t want to cast a vote against either of them because of this.

I’m more inclined to take a closer look at those who seem to be laying low today.

Bolding mine
This reminds me, the no lurking rule is still in place. Those of you with less than 3 posts need to put a couple more up on the board in the next 12 hours or so.

Our two masons are on the short end of that list!

A quick question for NAF: is a heads up given to them outside of game behavior?

I will PM them if it is looking like they aren’t reading the thread anymore.

Queueing, you say you understand the maths, but your statements above are not correct.
What Malacandra found (and it took me by surprise, as probability often does) is that there is a significant difference in (the chance of the Beat Cop being right) v the chance of the Beat Cop being wrong), depending on the answer.

Yes (as you keep saying) once a Beat Cop has chosen a suspect their chance is 50% to be right.
But their chance of picking a Citizen to investigate is much higher than their chance of picking the only Serial Killer. And you don’t allow for that.

The net result is that a Beat Cop getting a single player role right first time is only about 30%.
The chances of getting a correct Mafia or Citizen result are much higher. We can trust what a Beat Cop reports in these cases.

I’m following along, but I don’t want my confirmed Townie status to give a platform for Mafia to start a bandwagon. People need to vote and give reasons, so that when they die, we can scrutinize them. At this point, the Town will gain nothing from my death, so there’s little reason for me to post a lot.

And there’s every reason for Mafia to try to lay low at this point. That includes not posting and not voting. Based at that, my List O’ Suspicion:

hocow: 1 posts, no vote.
MadTheSwine: 2 posts, no vote.
Storyteller: 3 posts, no vote.
Rysto: 3 posts, no vote.

So, for now, my vote is hocow. May or may not be Mafia, but got to go with something.

I have posted a reason for my not being able to keep up the past couple of days; my apologies if the others think it’s intentional.

Let this stand as my 3rd post for “today.” I have posted a quick analysis of some posts earlier, and my vote currently stands.

I am working on it.I have my suspects and am going over the whole damn thread right now.I don’t have a vote yet

Now we just need to here from **hocow ** and **Sturmhauke ** and we are all within the rules.