Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
2801

I expect the votes today will come flying fast and furious, so can we post ongoing post counts? I wouldn’t be surprised to have to switch my vote once a bandwagon gets more persuasive (and I don’t think I’m the only one) so I’d like to keep an eye on it. Twould be a shame for someone to be lynched with only three or four votes … which is the way things seem to be going so far.

FWIW I agree with Queuing that the math talk is more distracting than useful, at the end of the day (and especially at the end of this 50+ page thread!), posts are a lot more clear than probabilities.

Vote count up to now:

brewha - 2 - MonkeyMensch, Menocchio

ArizonaTeach - 2 - kat, Lakai

Malacandra - 1 - Queuing

Queuing - 1 - Malacandra

MadTheSwine - 1 - cowgirl

Queuing - 1 - Aguecheek

2802

[QUOTE=pimaspinner]
I was thinking maybe both mafia having a pissing contest.
[/QUOTE]

That’s not a kind thing to say when I’ve offered the town an innocent explanation as to why we should not automatically punish you over the Fern Forest business. :slight_smile:

Queuing is right about one thing (on the stopped-clock principle, I guess): we might as well take your word for a Citizen read, and suggest you look elsewhere. Your chances of correctly spotting vanilla Mafia aren’t as good, but the true positive/false positive ratio is well in our favour.

@Lakai: Thanks. That’s exactly it.

2803

[QUOTE=Queuing]
Umm, how about because you haven’t shown how that matters one iota? I get the math. As you said it is not overly complicated math. I get that its unlikely that someone who is a power role will be identified correctly. Again, what the hell is the point of all of this?

Unless of course someone has knowledge that a vanilla townie doesn’t have, it does not matter. Even if its only a 10% chance that pimaspinner is correct that is 10% better then you.

Continue having your little math discussions. I would love to know how they are helpful. They are NOT.
[/QUOTE]

It’s not helpful to know that if **Pimaspinner **investigates ten times and gets ten town results that she is probably right on nine of them?

Why is a 10% chance better than me? How are you quantifying my analysis?

2804

[QUOTE=Rysto]
You don’t see how it’s helpful to know that Lakai has a 90% probability of being Town? Not to mention, when the other beat cop is forced to reveal themselves, how that will help us interpret their results?
[/QUOTE]

Nope, not when 50% is good enough. Honestly all of this math discussion is just fluff. So Pimaspinner was wrong about the SK. For this we have wasted a lot of time and had a lot of posts, even had a GQ post about it? If it turned out that Lakai only had a 75% chance of being town does that mean she would get lynched sooner? No, of course not. The beat cop says town. Until we get down to only ‘confirmed’ townies it wouldn’t even matter. And because I am pointing this out people now think I am someone who doesn’t get math? So Lakai is 90% town. That still isn’t 100%. I 100% accept the idea that lakai is town. I do NOT accept the idea of not believing in Pimaspinner’s readings. For pointing out the fact that Malacandra has maybe once actually done and shown some analysis, I don’t get math? His posts are fluff. He never says anything, and now he questions the idea of actually analyzing posts.

It isn’t about trust or not trust. I read it, I see it, I know it to be true. I still don’t see how it matters, and it looks to me like its scum fluffing their post counts.

2805

[QUOTE=Lakai]
It’s not helpful to know that if **Pimaspinner **investigates ten times and gets ten town results that she is probably right on nine of them?

Why is a 10% chance better than me? How are you quantifying my analysis?
[/QUOTE]

Because he has a 10% chance of being correct. That is proven. Not so with you. Or me. Or whomever.

2806

[QUOTE=cowgirl]
Wow, time’s a-wasting.

I’m going to vote MadTheSwine, to be unvoted if I get a good reason for this:

Why such aggression towards our Detective so early in the game?
[/QUOTE]

At that point in the game, we had no idea who the detective was. I’m beginning to think you were reincarnated as Mafia, and have been going back through the posts to pick out conversations in the past. Posts that are no longer relevant because of the information we had then, compared to the information we have now.

2807

Queuing is still triggering my scumdar, but I’ve stopped listening to it. I thinks he’s most likely a stubborn Townie. The whole “lynch me and then take out Gadarene if I’m Mafia” still bothers me. But I don’t want to revive the pointless debate that raged that day, so no vote from me.

I like cowgirl’s FoS on MadTheSwine. Has that attack against CaerieD and Menocchio ever been adequately explained?

We need to see more votes. I’m going to vote to lynch whoever hasn’t voted by the end of the day. Confirmed Townies excepted. :slight_smile:

2808

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
At that point in the game, we had no idea who the detective was.
[/quote]

The only folks who knew anything at that time were mafia, who knew only who the other mafia were.

So who could be so certain of the status of CaerieD and Menocchio, other than mafia?

Of course I’m going back to pick out old conversations - what else could I do, mafia or otherwise? Obviously if I just stuck with recent conversations (e.g. yesterday’s), I’d be utterly incorrect. What else would you suggest I do?

See, that’s the point about that post - it wasn’t a “I’m kind of suspicious of these folks” or “I’ll just take a wild guess” kind of post (which would indeed no longer be relevant), it stood out because it was extremely decisive.

2809

[QUOTE=Queuing]
Because he has a 10% chance of being correct. That is proven. Not so with you. Or me. Or whomever.
[/QUOTE]

So now just because she has a quantifiable chance at being correct that is better than all of us? Are you kidding me?

Cowgirl’s FOSing using old posts is suspicious to me too. It looks as if she is just trying to give us something to run with so we can lynch a townie.

2810

[QUOTE=Malacandra]
That’s not a kind thing to say when I’ve offered the town an innocent explanation as to why we should not automatically punish you over the Fern Forest business. :slight_smile:

Queuing is right about one thing (on the stopped-clock principle, I guess): we might as well take your word for a Citizen read, and suggest you look elsewhere. Your chances of correctly spotting vanilla Mafia aren’t as good, but the true positive/false positive ratio is well in our favour.

@Lakai: Thanks. That’s exactly it.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the insult jackass.

How about you actually post something useful once? At least I am not afraid of throwing my ideas out there. Ideas to be tested, and seen if they are at all effective. You just post nothing but fluff and some lass insults. Oh wait, let us not forget your poor little manhood being insulted by some calling you a she.

I will soon post my analysis of Malacandra’s posts. There are lot of them, but they say very little. In fact, he didn’t even start posting about how good the beat cop would be until after we had gone after Fern Forest as the SK. Why? Maybe because you knew that the worse case was he was town and best case he was SK? Hmmm, how would you know this?

2811

Malacandra - Queuing

Both of you CALM DOWN!

Breathe

count to 10

Then kiss and make up.

This thing with you two is getting WAY too personal.

2812

[QUOTE=Lakai]
Cowgirl’s FOSing using old posts is suspicious to me too. It looks as if she is just trying to give us something to run with so we can lynch a townie.
[/QUOTE]
Come on. What else am I supposed to do? I haven’t posted as much analysis on those posts as you have because I haven’t been here! I would have gone back on Day 2 to ask these questions but I wasn’t here at the time!

Honestly, not rhetorically: what strategy would you play if you were me? Can you honestly tell me you wouldn’t go back and find old posts?

While we’re at it, Lakai: back in post 381 you said

By my reading those posts were by Rysto and Aguecheek respectively. Can you clarify which posts you had in mind? (I suspect one is the one I keep asking about; what was the other?)

2813

[QUOTE=cowgirl]
The only folks who knew anything at that time were mafia, who knew only who the other mafia were.
[/QUOTE]

Exactly. Since we didn’t know who the detective was at that time, MtS was pointing out exactly that: How could she trust Menocchio on the very first day?

[QUOTE=cowgirl]
Of course I’m going back to pick out old conversations - what else could I do, mafia or otherwise? Obviously if I just stuck with recent conversations (e.g. yesterday’s), I’d be utterly incorrect. What else would you suggest I do?
[/QUOTE]

I am not suggesting that you don’t go back in the thread. I am suggesting that when you do go back, to remember that on Day 1 that nobody knew anything about anyone (except of course the Mafia and the Masons). Your situation is different, because you had a certain knowledge base when you came into the game, that others did not have at the time the posts were made. Please remember that.

[QUOTE=cowgirl]
See, that’s the point about that post - it wasn’t a “I’m kind of suspicious of these folks” or “I’ll just take a wild guess” kind of post (which would indeed no longer be relevant), it stood out because it was extremely decisive.
[/QUOTE]

Yes, it was. He was also extremely decisive in other FoSs. Maybe that’s his style, but I’ll let him defend himself on this one.

2814

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
He was also extremely decisive in other FoSs. Maybe that’s his style, but I’ll let him defend himself on this one.
[/QUOTE]
That’s all I’m hoping for, and will happily be convinced to change my vote if that is appropriate. I just want to hear what he has to say.

2815

[QUOTE=Queuing]
Thanks for the insult jackass.

How about you actually post something useful once? At least I am not afraid of throwing my ideas out there. Ideas to be tested, and seen if they are at all effective. You just post nothing but fluff and some lass insults. Oh wait, let us not forget your poor little manhood being insulted by some calling you a she.

I will soon post my analysis of Malacandra’s posts. There are lot of them, but they say very little. In fact, he didn’t even start posting about how good the beat cop would be until after we had gone after Fern Forest as the SK. Why? Maybe because you knew that the worse case was he was town and best case he was SK? Hmmm, how would you know this?
[/QUOTE]

Or maybe because I didn’t actually sit down and crunch some algebra until things had gone wrong. A fair few people in this thread aren’t even keeping up once the math has been put on the table in front of them - even I didn’t do it in my head. You got to see the fair copy after I’d scribbled away for a while.

And I have to say that buoyed by the news that the Cop reckoned he’d not only spotted the SK but could back it up with some cites from the thread - and what with some other people coming up with some math which purported to show that the spot was good - I was too carried away on the general surge of enthusiasm. Remember, we had just had an especially good night, we had a Vig doing his best for us, we’d actually seen some scum go down; like a number of others, I was too eager to believe things were going well, and not assiduous enough to check. I think there’s enough blame there to share out, y’know.

[QUOTE=Queuing]
You just post nothing but fluff and some lass insults. Oh wait, let us not forget your poor little manhood being insulted by some calling you a she.

[/QUOTE]

laughs B-i-i-i-g phucking man in cyberspace, aren’t you? :rolleyes:

2816

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Malacandra - Queuing

Both of you CALM DOWN!

Breathe

count to 10

Then kiss and make up.

This thing with you two is getting WAY too personal.
[/QUOTE]

Preview is my friend… well, y’all know I’m not allowed to go back and edit… you were quite insistent.

One kiss. No tongues. And Queuing has to floss first.

2817

[QUOTE=cowgirl]
While we’re at it, Lakai: back in post 381 you said By my reading those posts were by Rysto and Aguecheek respectively. Can you clarify which posts you had in mind? (I suspect one is the one I keep asking about; what was the other?)
[/QUOTE]

I actually agree with you on Madtheswine, and he should speak up soon. The posts were 306 and 330.

I don’t like your FOS of me naturally. Even though you’ve said you don’t really suspect me anymore, I still had some FOS lingering around.

2818

Vote Queuing. I wasn’t sure until his last few posts, but I have a hard time imagining someone getting that defensive over a minor argument in a game unless they had something to hide. Also, I’ve just read through the whole clusterfuck from Day 2, and I don’t see anything that convinces me he’s town. I’m inclined to agree with JSexton’s assessment here that exactly one of Queuing or Gadarene is scum, and we know Gadarene wasn’t.

The one thing that does give me pause are the multiple mafia votes for Queuing, but on the other hand, they all unvoted him well before he would have been lynched, with kivvik casting the countdown-ending vote – and it makes sense for them to be seen voting for one of their own some of the time.

2819

[QUOTE=Kat]
No, not set up beforehand, but I forced myself to scan through when NAF1138 gave the ending time, because I’m not sure I’ll have much time on tomorrow. (Other people may remember I did that in the last game, too.) That’s about why that post is so short.

It’s not so much the unvoting Blaster Master and JSexton that struck me as off, but rather the following sequence of events (damn, I wanted to avoid all this coding and copying and pasting):

In post 1001 (addressed to zuma):
In post 1020:
And then in your next post, post 1099, you say:
But you were the one to link yourself to Gadarene first, and then accused him of trying to link himself to you, and then voted for him under that reasoning. Strange reasoning, especially since you were just agreeing with him and he was agreeing with you.

And I think pima posted that Lakai came up town.

I’m going to bed now.
[/QUOTE]
The difference being (and not out of the blue like you insinuated originally) was that my response to **zuma ** referencing **Gadarene ** was a direct response to **zuma’s ** accusations toward Gadarene. **Gadarene’s ** response seemed to me, at the time, when suspicion was starting to go her way, to desperately pull someone out of thin air to help further her cause. And I will freely admit that I didn’t want to be associated with someone who had been FOS big time by that point. Someone, I might add, who turned out to be town.

I missed **pima’s ** **Lakai ** response. My fault. Although I see that **Lakai ** is now running full blast with it. Jeez. God forbid I spend my morning actually, you know, teaching, eh Lakai? I hope you unvote me now since the only reason you voted was because I hadn’t responded…which, I now have.

However, I wasn’t going to vote until I was able to go through this stuff, but **Pleonast’s ** threat (threat in its least offensive meaning) is going to force me to vote now just to be safe.

I hesitate to rely too much on **cowgirl ** here, but maybe the fact she has a different perspective will be a boon. So **MadTheSwine ** is attractive, but the whole **Queuing ** thing rubs me wrong.

Vote Queuing

On preview, Thank you **Fretful Porpentine ** for vocalizing my rubbing.

Ew.

2820

I’m all but convinced the both Queuing and Mal are town. The Mafia in this agme have been far too clever to be pulled out into pointless arguments like this.

Unvote Brewha
Vote MadTheSwine. I want to hear what he has to say about himself.