Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Hockey_Monkey]

**Malacandra ** - 2 - Lakai, Queuing

**brewha ** - 3 - monkeymensch, pimaspinner, Menocchio

**ArizonaTeach ** - 1 - kat

**Queuing ** - 1 - Malacandra

[NAF1138]

wow Pimma, you are on the ball. I hit preview to see if another vote came in and you had posted a count.

Good job, and it’s accurate according to what I have.

Carry on.

[brewha]

@storyteller0910

Unless I am not understanding the rules properly, whoever is the vote leader at 10:30AM PST tomorrow morning will be lynched no matter how many (or how few) votes he or she has.

Yeah, I get that. But, we have a total of 7 votes right now. There’s less than 24 hrs. Where’s the rest of the town?

3 votes is not a lynch mob - it’s a bar fight. There’s no way three people are gonna get a noose around my neck!

[brewha]

@brewha

There’s less than 24 hrs.

Until someone gets lynched.

hey NAF Can you post what time it is where you’re at - at the time you make the post so I can compare your time to mine?

[Hockey_Monkey]

Well, looks like the Mafia votes to kill me tonight are already in. So if I don’t die tonight, then it looks like I’m scum scamming the town. Great. :rolleyes: If I were a mafioso, that’s how I would play out tonight. Then the town would waste another lynch on another townie tomorrow. :mad: I figure if they do let me live, I’ll investigate **Lakai ** again tonight to try to confirm my reading.

Thanks for the explaination brewha. I missed the posts where you unvoted and revoted, but then again, my first vote was to get a dialogue started.

Unvote brewha.

[Santo_Rugger]

@brewha

Until someone gets lynched.

hey NAF Can you post what time it is where you’re at - at the time you make the post so I can compare your time to mine?

He’s on PST, so it’s about 9:36 there.

[NAF1138]

@brewha

Until someone gets lynched.

hey NAF Can you post what time it is where you’re at - at the time you make the post so I can compare your time to mine?

9:38

[brewha]

Thank ya much.

[Queuing]

Quick suggestion, if you do somehow make it tonight, don’t bother investigating Lakai. Investigate someone new. Regardless of what math people are throwing out there, it CLEARY states in the rules that you have a 50/50 chance of being right. I know Malacandra in post 2770 breaks up my post, and talks about C. Which, as he broke it up says:

(c) The beat cop has a 50/50 chance of being right.

to which he says:

C: No, he doesn’t

regardless of the fact the rules say this:

, beat cops are only right 50% of the time

I still see no reason to not vote how you say. No one else has better odds then 50/50. Except scum of course.

[brewha]

@pimaspinner

Well, looks like the Mafia votes to kill me tonight are already in. So if I don’t die tonight, then it looks like I’m scum scamming the town. Great. :rolleyes: If I were a mafioso, that’s how I would play out tonight. Then the town would waste another lynch on another townie tomorrow. :mad: I figure if they do let me live, I’ll investigate **Lakai ** again tonight to try to confirm my reading.

Thanks for the explaination brewha. I missed the posts where you unvoted and revoted, but then again, my first vote was to get a dialogue started.

Unvote brewha.

Thanks for the unvote. I agree that we need to get dialogue going. I don’t know where everyone else is this late in the day. All I have to go on right now is Queuing and Malacandra spat. One may be town and one scum, or they might even both be town.
I’m just hoping someone can come in freshly read on the whole thread with something to go on.

[StarvingButStrong]

@pimaspinner

I figure if they do let me live, I’ll investigate **Lakai ** again tonight to try to confirm my reading.

Just my opinion, but I think time is too tight right now to ‘waste’ it on confirming votes. Lakai = town at some odds from 50% up (I’m among the innumerate) is good enough to go on for now. It would be better (IMHO) to look at someone else and get another 50+ % confidence on someone else being town or mafia.

I’m not pushing you to look at anyone in particular. It’s your pick, from whoever you find most suspicious, whether that has to do with post count or voting record or analysis or whatever.

[Santo_Rugger]

@StarvingButStrong

Just my opinion, but I think time is too tight right now to ‘waste’ it on confirming votes. Lakai = town at some odds from 50% up (I’m among the innumerate) is good enough to go on for now. It would be better (IMHO) to look at someone else and get another 50+ % confidence on someone else being town or mafia.

I’m not pushing you to look at anyone in particular. It’s your pick, from whoever you find most suspicious, whether that has to do with post count or voting record or analysis or whatever.

I agree.

[Hockey_Monkey]

@brewha

Thanks for the unvote. I agree that we need to get dialogue going. I don’t know where everyone else is this late in the day. All I have to go on right now is Queuing and Malacandra spat. One may be town and one scum, or they might even both be town.
I’m just hoping someone can come in freshly read on the whole thread with something to go on.

I was thinking maybe both mafia having a pissing contest.

[Lakai]

@Pygmy Rugger

Malacandra, why are you so fired up that Queuing is pointing the FoS at you?

I think he is fired up for the same reason I am: Queuing is ignoring good math. I’m sorry Queuing, but I really don’t understand how you can just say “bah, it’s a 50/50 either way” when it clearly is not. Then you blame Malacandra for assuming you don’t know math. Well, that is what I am thinking too. If you knew the math you would either agree that all beat cop investigations are not 50/50 or you would come up with some argument showing how they are. You have neither argued the rational nor have you accepted it. How can anyone assume you know what you are talking about?

If you don’t trust our math then at least trust the guys in GQ:

@Lakai

If anyone is interested here is the GQ thread I started so we can get some good numbers on Beat Cop investigations.

There are few arguments on the specifics but the rough figures for a town of 22 people are:

If a person turns up as town the investigation is roughly 90% right
If a person turns up as mafia the investigation is about 70% correct
If a person turns up as the SK (or any other single role) the investigation is about 30% correct.

So I say that if we get Mafia we lynch, if we get SK we investigate again and if we get town we leave that person alone.

I can’t make the math more simple than this.

[Lakai]

@Kat

No, not set up beforehand, but I forced myself to scan through when NAF1138 gave the ending time, because I’m not sure I’ll have much time on tomorrow. (Other people may remember I did that in the last game, too.) That’s about why that post is so short.

It’s not so much the unvoting Blaster Master and JSexton that struck me as off, but rather the following sequence of events (damn, I wanted to avoid all this coding and copying and pasting):

In post 1001 (addressed to zuma):
In post 1020:
And then in your next post, post 1099, you say:
But you were the one to link yourself to Gadarene first, and then accused him of trying to link himself to you, and then voted for him under that reasoning. Strange reasoning, especially since you were just agreeing with him and he was agreeing with you.

And I think pima posted that Lakai came up town.

I’m going to bed now.

Since ArizonaTeach hasn’t responded yet, he might need more incentive.

Unvote Malacandra
Vote ArizonaTeach

[cowgirl]

Wow, time’s a-wasting.

I’m going to vote MadTheSwine, to be unvoted if I get a good reason for this:

@MadTheSwine

You [CaerieD] trust Menocchio for what reason? Two more scum here folks.

Kill them when I am dead.

Why such aggression towards our Detective so early in the game?

[Queuing]

@Lakai

I think he is fired up for the same reason I am: Queuing is ignoring good math. I’m sorry Queuing, but I really don’t understand how you can just say “bah, it’s a 50/50 either way” when it clearly is not. Then you blame Malacandra for assuming you don’t know math. Well, that is what I am thinking too. If you knew the math you would either agree that all beat cop investigations are not 50/50 or you would come up with some argument showing how they are. You have neither argued the rational nor have you accepted it. How can anyone assume you know what you are talking about?

If you don’t trust our math then at least trust the guys in GQ:

I can’t make the math more simple than this.

Umm, how about because you haven’t shown how that matters one iota? I get the math. As you said it is not overly complicated math. I get that its unlikely that someone who is a power role will be identified correctly. Again, what the hell is the point of all of this?

Unless of course someone has knowledge that a vanilla townie doesn’t have, it does not matter. Even if its only a 10% chance that pimaspinner is correct that is 10% better then you.

Continue having your little math discussions. I would love to know how they are helpful. They are NOT.

[Aguecheek]

Warning – this is not hardcore analysis, just a couple of odd little points I found. I’m sorry folks, we had someone quit the other day, so I’ve been twice as swamped as earlier. As such, it’s a much more casual read of some posts, and I may have missed a lot that could change the context.

I think Queuing might be the Serial Killer

Prior to JSexton’s analysis, Queuing was all for lynching Blaster Master; called him scum a few times. It wasn’t until after JSexton posted that he started calling him the Serial Killer.

In posts #1088 and 1098, he implies that not only does he believe that BM is the SK, but that it’d be a good idea to kill him. Implies, but doesn’t state outright.

@Queuing

One flaw is that the SK wins if he lives. S/He doesn’t really care that much who the Vig is, so long as they live they win. This does nothing to stop the SK.

This is when suspicion was still on BM for being the SK, but after he’d claimed as Vig. In fairness, Queuing withdrew his vote, but he didn’t like it. But he was pushing hard to lynch Blaster Master

Later, in post #1429, he’s still pushing to have the SK outed:

@Queuing

Believing (I won’t say knowing…who the SK is is helpful to all.

Of course, the only way we can know who the SK is is either by having them killed, or by having them role-claim (the second is highly unlikely, I think).

Then, by post #1899, he’s for going after Mafia rather than the SK:

@Queuing

We should not, IMO, be going after the SK tonight…Forget the SK at this moment.

Again, in fairness, he explains why, stating that right then, he feels it’s better to go for mafia. A few posts after that, he refuses to entertain anymore discussion about the SK:

IMO we are just wasting time, and confusing the issue with this worry about the SK. However I won’t bother saying anything more on the issue, as I don’t want to lead another day to hell.

…I said I won’t bother with any more defense of not worrying about the SK tonight.

. And that’s all I’ve got. As stated, it was a quick read of the posts, and I would not be at all surprised if I missed something that would explain the turnaround.

But based on this, and on his refusal to entertain Malacandra’s math (I don’t completely get it either, but what I do get makes sense), I say Vote Queuing

[Rysto]

@Queuing

Continue having your little math discussions. I would love to know how they are helpful. They are NOT.

You don’t see how it’s helpful to know that Lakai has a 90% probability of being Town? Not to mention, when the other beat cop is forced to reveal themselves, how that will help us interpret their results?

[Queuing]

Ah man, so to defend myself I have to go look up the posts? Why couldn’t you make them links. At least you gave some actual analysis as opposed to useless math.

Once again, I do not “not get” the math. I get the math. I still don’t see how it matters. Please someone explain how it matters, how all these pages of math talk, how all this discussion on probabilities is better then analysis? How the fact that it is more unlikely then likely that a power role will be identified incorrectly is not helpful? How because of this we should question what pimaspinner tells us? Seriously, please come and tell me. Maybe I am missing something blindingly obvious. Just tell me, straight up, how math is going to help us catch scum, and why it is a “useful” post?