Having got over my previous obsession with hocow, I’d just like to point out this post, in which I was being railroaded for refusing to jump at once on the Autolycus bandwagon. I admit that this could be innocent… but it could also be a try at getting the day ended early, knowing that neither of the two prospective victims were scum.
What strength in that accusation? We were all going to lynch Jsexton until he claimed Doc. So we put off his lynching.
He was supposed to use his power to protect someone else. That seemed obvious to me. I think the Mafia would have picked up on it as well. Yet, he survived the night.
So, he was either actually town and the mafia didn’t choose to hit him. Or, he was mafia and false role claimed to save his skin. I didn’t know for sure which he was, but I really thought we should look into it.
Notice, I didn’t vote for him. I just pointed out that he was still alive and that it surprised me that the mafia hadn’t taken him out.
Malacandra you misspelled “the math doesn’t matter”. You guys can argue you all you want about math, filling up pages and pages of posts looking like you are posting something of value, but it all boils down to this:
IF Pimaspinner is the beat cop they have a 50% chance of being right! How can you argue against this? It says so in the damn rules. Oh wait, you aren’t arguing against it, you are just trying to confuse the issue by talking about power roles and probabilities.
Lynch Malacandra
This is based on burying us with Math theory.
Starvingbutstrong I believe I became town in most people’s minds on Day 2. After the claims of BM and Pleonast, but before Zuma. I suggested lynching myself to find out what I was, and in turn then lynching someone from the other group to show what they were. Somehow this was turned around to lynch Gadarene, but I believe that is when it happened. On day 2, I went from suspicious to trusted due to my posts. I am town, but if the FOS falls on me (as JSexton wanted if he died) so be it. You know I won’t make any claim beyond town, and unless specifics are given as to suspicions I won’t be able to address them.
Duh. And if the beat cop is wrong? Half the time the cop investigates someone they get a true result. The other half they get a wrong result with a random outcome. If you can be bothered to do the sums you will realize that a rare result will therefore come up as a false positive much more often than a true one! To have a 50% chance of IDing, say, the SK, they have to be investigating the SK in the first place.
I’m -><- this close to filing a counter-vote against you for deliberate obfuscation, but I’ll put it down to woodenheadedness for now. People are trying - later than it should have happened, but maybe not too late to matter - to assess how to weight the cop’s investigations, in order to avoid another Fern Forest debacle and maybe not judge pimaspinner too harshly, and all you do is run around waving your arms, screaming “It doesn’t matter!” based on your inability to understand, and yelling for a lynching.
Let those who want to judge if you’re acting out of ignorance or malice. I’m a cheap sacrifice for the town, if we really think we can spare another one. If we have to put up yet another poor sap in order to try to glean some evidence from the identity of the fins churning the bloody waters, it might as well be me.
Thanks for the reply, brewha. It’s an early vote at any rate.
I’m not really fearing for my life yet. I just wanted to explain why I pointed the finger at Jsexton.
In retrospect, I guess that the mafia assumed that the doc would protect himself and didnt’ want to waste a hit on him.
I think what Queuing is trying to say - and I agree with him on this point - is that figuring out the odds of the Beat Cop investigation being right within three decimal places doesn’t really help us get any closer to finding Mafia. I’m all for analyzing Beat Cop results as a practical matter: for example, last night pima investigated Lakai and received a reading of town. Apply the math to this specific finding and tell us what we should be doing in re: Lakai. But post after post of theoretical math doesn’t help most of us (in part because most of us - or at least I - don’t understand it very well. I know that I’ve read every math post to this thread at least three times, and what I have gleaned is: the Beat Cop might be right, and he or she might be wrong, so we need to look for other evidence to support our lynches. Which I knew).
To put this a different way: in a little over 24 hours, someone’s getting lynched. Right now it’s going to be brewha, and we’re so busy arguing over math that we’re barely even discussing whether that is a good lynch or whether there are better suspects to consider. Unless I am missing something, it is no longer early in the day.
More from me in an hour or two, when I am able to organize my thoughts into a coherent post.
Thanks for the assumption of my abilities. I never said I didn’t understand it. I do understand it. Yes, the chances of a power role being correct are slim, but what the fuck is your point? I am saying it doesn’t matter, because well it doesn’t matter. You can continue to spew as much math as you want. So can anyone else. You still miss the point. The beat cop has a 50/50 chance of being right. You sure as hell don’t. I sure as hell don’t. No one else does! That is my point. Yet again you say nothing, but post. How about some useful analysis for once? Even if its wrong through it out there and stop spewing shit that means nothing.
Go ahead and vote for me if that is what you want. Just have some sort of reason for it, like I do for you. Defend if you will, don’t throw yourself on the altar of “oh another townie will die if you get me”. Accuse people, force defense, defend actively and stop just posting crap.
Well put, storyteller0910. But it’s not a question of multiple decimal place accuracy but of gross accuracy or inaccuracy. That’s what I’ve been trying to say.
A reported reading of Citizen means that it is comfortably odds-on that Lakai is a Citizen or pima is a liar. It’s as good a deal as we’re getting from that quarter - tho’ it’s also true to say that Cop readings aren’t all we have to go on. But I’d take a possibly 7-1 shot over what the clever psychology has been netting us so far.
The incorrect fingering of Fern Forest should be viewed only as circumstantial evidence as we now know that pima’s odds of correctly spotting the SK were horrible (and they still are). In general, believe reads of Mafia, believe reads of Citizen, disbelieve all else. Any help?
[list=a]No, you don’t[li]No, I don’t[]No, he doesn’t[]Well, if you insist on making it easy…[/list][/li]
I’ve explained this as clearly as it’s going to get. I’ve explained in my previous post that we can trust some BC reads, not others. I’ve given you the benefit of the doubt that you Just. Don’t. Get. It. You’re now insisting that you do and are still trying to claim that black is white. In that case you’re deliberately or negligently derailing an attempt to provide the town with a useful tool, and in my book that either makes you scum or someone who might as well be shitcanned as a hindrance - since we still seem to be lynching more town than scum.
Vote Queuing.
Again, another useful post from Malacandra. Assuming knowledge of other posters is always a wonderful idea. FOS for no other reason then you yourself have been FOS’d is also a wonderful idea.
I am afraid you are wrong. The math doesn’t matter, and arguing about it is stupid and a waste of time.
So analysis? Got any?
How’s analysis been working out so far? What’s the death roll looking like? Got some reason for not wanting the town to make the best use of its limited remaining resources? Dismissing it as “doesn’t matter” is either idiotic or scummy. Which are you?
And can I get you a bowl of spaghetti?
Clever.
Yet another post of nothing, except this time you are saying “analysis doesn’t matter, look how well we have done so far with it”. And you reiterate how great the math is. Never once acknowledging that the Beat cop has better chance of being right then any of us. Rather you focus solely on how wrong he can be.
Necessarily. As I’ve explained. Unless we want to lynch another “serial killer” or trust a “guardian angel”, it’s necessary to understand why we should not.
It’s amazing how you think that pointing this out is in some way a “nothing” post. And yeah, analyzing voting patterns is working out just great at the moment, isn’t it?
…can’t edit, so have to post again to add: Looking back at the death toll so far, I don’t see how the arguing back and forth has netted better results than picking people out with a pin.
Malacandra, why are you so fired up that Queuing is pointing the FoS at you?
Especially since:
Whoa, I’m gonna get lynched with 3 votes? I did miss some?
Two of the votes were because I pointed the FOS (not even voted for) Jsexton and I’ve already defended that action.
The only other vote I was was this one (color removed from vote to avoid confusion):
Once the bandwagon got out of control, I posted this
post 2446
It was only after Autolycus refused to defend himself did I revote. That was because I wanted to force an explanation out of him.
post 2521
Anyone got a vote count?
Unless I am not understanding the rules properly, whoever is the vote leader at 10:30AM PST tomorrow morning will be lynched no matter how many (or how few) votes he or she has.