Interesting. So taking brewha’s and sturmhauke’s evidence it would seem to point at Storyteller0910 and StarvingButStrong.
So I will put off my looking at Fretful, for the moment, and I will do Storyteller first.
Gee, great way for the day to start off: two more citizens dead, and myself at the top of at least two people’s list. 
Well, for the record (yet again) re Suburban Plankton. I was one of the first to call suspicion on him, and voted for him early in that ‘day.’ I left the vote there until just before I had to go to work. At that point it was obvious (heh) that there weren’t going to be enough votes to lynch him, so I changed my vote to what I thought was the scummier of the two leading vote getters. I went to work, hell broke out, and I can home to find SP had been lynched.
As for my belated vote switch from MadTheSwine to Monkey Mensch, I’d been out running errands. I started reading to catch up, got to Queuing’s post laying out suspicions of Monkey, and immediately unvoted/re voted. But it was too late. Somehow I’d thought the day ended on the hour, so I was in a hurry to get my vote in, and didn’t take the time to read the rest of the thread for fear of running out of time. Yes, ironic that.
Anyway, that’s all I can say. I spend a lot of time away from my computer for reasons of work and family/house needs, and it’s screwed up my play in this game mightily.
If I get strung up for that, well, no hard feelings. In truth, other than pointing a deserved attack on on Suburban Plankton and a (maybe?) undeserved attack on Aguecheek, I haven’t contributed much.
Oh, for the record, I’m nobody, just vanilla.
The upside of lynching me: well, at least a more useful citizen won’t die.
The downside of lynching me: one less townie and…well, I guess that’s all.
Don’t worry. You’re not at the top of my list, you’re a close second. That might all be circumstantial evidence anyway. The real truth lays in your posts. I’ve already gone thru Storyteller’s posts and they reek of scum. I’m interested to see what Queuing comes up with.
I’m afraid you’ll need to buy me a drink first. And possibly flowers.
Sorry, I’m twelve.
Wow. You went through all my posts in a half hour? Well, I’d be happy to discuss anything I’ve said or done throughout the game. Want to share what you’re thinking, rather than waiting on Queuing? That would seem a bit more above board to me.
Yep, I missed that (at least twice it seems). I didn’t bring up the Suburban Plankton lynching to prove guilt as much as to prove innocence. It is more likely that those who voted for him are innocent than those who didn’t are guilty.
You’ve dropped a few pegs on my scum list.
I’ve got a question, though: how in the world do you ‘test’ a beat cop claim?
Since he’s going to be wrong half the time anyway, how in the world can you tell a deliberate lie by the “cop” from his accurately reporting a wrong answer he really received?
There were only 64 to begin with. I skipped over the ones that seemed to give little insight from their subject lines.
It’s not like there is any one thing that you said that made you look scummy. It is more a compilation of what you didn’t say. I’m gonna give it a closer read through before I cast my vote.
:dubious:
All righty then. Sort of hard to craft a response to that, wouldn’t you agree?
FTR, this is why I choose to do storyteller first (passes him a big ol’ bottle of tequila, good enough?). You haven’t really struck me as scum TBH, but following up on any sort of lead is necessary at this time. We are losing, quite badly, and I am not a big fan of losing.
On preview. You can’t really test a beat cop claim I don’t think. We don’t even know if there are 2 beat cops. All the rules say is:
So we may be out of cops, or there may still be a detective running around for all we know. We just have to trust, for now at least. Myself I don’t really believe aguecheek. For no real reason except he seems to have investigated a number of people unnecessarily. Mainly roles, and last night’s investigation of me seemed to only come from 1 person. I myself suggested other people, and I believe (but haven’t checked) that others did as well.
Yeah, and apparently with good reason. I’ve gone through again with a more in depth look and I can’t seem to find any conclusive evidence. I did find that your list of suspects in post 884 are all known to be town, but I suspected some of them at differnet points in the game.
Your vote history has not been the greatest, you even claimed responsibility for the Enfant Terrible lynching, but judging on how the town is doing, no one has a stellar voting history.
Your voting history that I’ve already mentioned still keeps you at the highest of my scum list until I find a more likely candidate.
How do you test the results of the investigation? Only one way - lynching. And, maybe I’m just talking crazy here, but I don’t think that’s a very good idea. How do you test the results of a beat cop role claim? Only one way - seeing what happens when they die, and that would really suck if one truly IS a cop. So my analysis? Beat Cops have the worst, absolute WORST job in the game.
What really blows is unlike some other roles, they don’t get better odds as the town shrinks, right?
I’m glad to see some more action here today. Mad got lynched wrongly because the town had become too sluggish to work with the deadline and deal with an 11th hour role-claim. We overcompensated for the franticness of earlier days and we still ended hanging someone half-coked because we couldn’t be arsed to choose well before then.
I have no doubt that at least some of Mad’s killers were scum, but I most of them were just town panicking and chooses someone who didn’t claim to be a cop.
By the way, I’m still not convinced by Aguecheek.
You know what? Fair enough. I’ve been arguing for turning the spotlight toward some fresh faces; I can hardly complain when it turns to me.
For the moment, I’ll address your specific point (well, points, there were 2):
-
I did not vote for Suburban Plankton. This is true; here is why. At some point during that Day, I became convinced that pimaspinner was scum. Obviously I was wrong, but I felt I had pretty good evidence - she had said some things that I thought were contradictory and misleading. Ultimately I voted for her, feeling fairly confident in my choice. Then I went away from the boards for a while (various IRL stuff). I missed pima’s role claim, the resultant shift of votes to Fern Forest, and then the subsequent flip over to Suburban Plankton. By the time I got back, the brouhaha was over - with my vote still sitting on pima, where I had left it before the craziness got underway.
-
I voted for MadtheSwine yesterday. I definitely don’t think the vote for Mad was our finest hour as a town, but as I said at the time, I was (and am) close to sure that Malacandra and Queuing were town, and I felt we oughtn’t to lynch Aguecheek, given his role claim, until we had a bit more information on and from him. People were pushing the Mad lynch, it was late in the day and I was tired of being Ralph Nader with my lonely Pygm vote, so I took a shot at someone on whom I had no read in order to preserve people on whom I did.
Didn’t want to - wanted to vote for Pygmy Rugger. In fact, I still do. Actually, while I’m here, and in the hope that someone else will be interested this time:
vote Pygmy Rugger
But did. Anyhoo, that’s my reasoning. Do with it as you will.
They get better odds on unique roles. For instance, there are now about 15 people for our putative beat cop to pick from (there are 18 of us - the Cop will not investigate himself or the Masons (do we still have two left?) ). So he has a 1/15 chance of happening on, say, the SK, and then a 1/2 chance of identifying him. But the only other time he will turn up a SK result is if he gets a “wrong” result and then picks SK out of about 8 roles (Mafia, Citizen, Detective, Beat Cop, Doctor, Vig, SK, GA). He can’t get “Miller” right or wrong as I understand it as they always read “Mafia” and he can’t get “Godfather” as he always reads “Citizen”, but he can get roles that have been eliminated. So he has a 1/2 x 1/8 chance of getting a “wrong” SK read. There is a 1 in 15 chance that this is “accidentally right” - he picked the SK, flipped the coin wrong, but it came up SK anyway.
So his chance of getting an SK read on someone who is the SK is (1/2 x 1/15) + (1/2 x 1/8 x 1/15) and his chance of getting an SK read on someone who isn’t is 1/2 x 1/8 x 14/15). Cancelling common turns means that the odds are 14:9 against an SK read being on someone who actually is the SK. Those are **much ** better odds than we had at the start. (It corresponds quite closely to “number of players” against “number of roles”).
The trouble is, of course, that most times the Cop investigates he won’t get an SK result at all. The above number crunching only addresses the possibility that he does. I hope no Cop would actually announce a GA result even if he got one, but the odds of one being true or false if he does would be the same. Always assuming the role is in the game in the first place.
No one BC result can be viewed as decisive, but reads of Citizen and Mafia aren’t bad. I’d suggest we not make them the sole criterion for a lynching but maybe put them on the to-do list when the supposed Cop’s inevitable demise gives us further grounds for considering his claims true or false.
Oops, I left “Mason” off the above role list. Adjust the figures accordingly - I think that makes it 14:10 against. Presumably an actual report of Mason at this stage would be incorrect as we believe all the Masons are accounted for, but we’d be no wiser as to what the subject actually was. And when I speak of cancelling “common turns” I mean “common terms”, of course.
I came into today sure MonkeyMensch was scum. Than after research I was reasonabley sure either Storyteller or Starving was scum. I now I’m sure of nothing.
AHHHH!
If you don’t hear from me again, it’s because my head exploded. 
Snipping math – I’m sure you’re right, but…
What I’m really asking about is, well, I voted for Aguecheek (giving my reasons) and several others also voted for him, for their own reasons, mostly. Then he says he’s a beat cop.
If he is, good for us. And bad for him, probably, since the Mafia will off him sooner or later. (Your ‘inevitable demise’ line from above.)
But what if he really is mafia? As someone pointed out above, it’s damn easy to fake being a BC if you are mafia, given that you know who all the mafia are. All you have to do is claim you investigated whoever and say whatever you want was the answer you got. Investigate a scum and say he came back town? You provide some cover for that scum. And when the truth comes out… Whoops, got bitten by that 50% wrong thing. “Investigate” a townie and say he came back as the Guardian Angel? Why not? Hell, “investigate” a townie and say he came back as town – why not?
How many days could a ‘fake’ Mafioso do this without us being able to say for sure that he’s not a Beat Cop? Longer than this game will last, probably.
It just seems like a perfect cover for a Mafia.
I agree that it is perfect cover for Mafia. I agree with everything you said. One thing that you may be missing is if he lives 2 more nights then we almost have to kill him ourselves. Particularly if he just keeps coming back town. Particularly if he only sort of investigates whom was suggested.
Basically its good cover, but only for so long. Who knows how long this game will go on for though. I do think the scum need to go after the SK as well though.
Brewha so why don’t you think Monkey is scum anymore? Have any opinions on Malacandra?
Wait…what?
The first quote from MadTheSwine was made 8 posts before the lynching, Pygmy Rugger’s was 3 posts after that (with the intervening posts by MTS only. Yours was 5 after Pygmy Rugger’s. The next post after your last was the lynching. No other posts in between suggested any other investigations. Rysto suggested voting on an investigatee, but yours and Pygmy Rugger’s were the only posts that seemed in agreement as to whom should be investigated. I’m sorry if I misread the request, but come on.
Now to respond to earlier questions that I couldn’t get to yesterday.
Why didn’t I investigate MonkeyMensch and why did I investigate BlasterMaster and pimaspinner? We’ve all agreed (and I quite concur), that Cop results suck. I got FOS’d by JSexton after my vote for sturmhauke and made it onto Queuing and BlasterMaster’s scum lists as a result. I figured investigating to determine a role was the suck. After BM claimed, I figured it might work for confirming, however. Granted, there were tests set up to confirm those claims, but honestly, I didn’t give it much thought. Figured the more confirmation we could get, the better and that’s it. Sorry I can’t give you better justification than that.
What were my breadcrumbs? Lessee…I tried to get sturmhauke based on my one result. That was a good idea :rolleyes:. Nothing to breadcrumb from my results on BM and pima. I tried to get Queuing based on my SK result…and almost got lynched again.
Why’d I claim so early? I’d got three votes, and knowing you guys, there was a very good chance I’d pick up a couple more. One more would’ve tied with…Queuing? It was 11:30 pm my time on Tuesday night. The “Day” ended on Wednesday, sometime in the morning, I can’t remember when. If I didn’t say anything and I had more than Queuing, I hung. If I was tied, 50/50 chance I hung. Tuesday was my last chance to post since I was working all day yesterday (as noted). It was the only chance I had to make any claim, and it looked like I was headed for the gallows.
Monkey was one of the first that swayed the vote from Fern Forest to Suburban Plankton. If he was scum, why would he do that? It would have been so much easier to just keep his mouth shut. As it turned out, Fern Forest lived (at least thru the lynching) and Suburban Plankton got lynched.
I don’t have a read on Malacandra. I don’t neccesarily think that you and he are on opposite sides. Since I somewhat trust you (I don’t fully trust anyone that hasn’t been completely confirmed) that leaves Malacandra as a well intentioned but loud town. Or Mafia. Neither of which I am certain.
He did not vote for Suburban Plankton which does not eliminate him from mafia, but it doesn’t condemn him as mafia either.