Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[StarvingButStrong]

Hey guys –

If I haven’t screwed up the time too badly (which I wouldn’t bet more than two bits against) we’re darn close to 12 hours left. And, unfortunately, most of us will be asleep for about 8 hours of that 12 hours.

So that really doesn’t leave us a lot of time to settle on a nominee, and we ought to leave as much time as possible for him/her to make a claim…er… I mean, make a defense.

Since I haven’t seen a vote count in a while, so let me cobble one together based on NAF’s latest:
2- Malacandra - (ArizonaTeach, hocow)
2- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMench, Sturmhauke, Menocchio)
2- brewha - (lakai, Fretful Porpentine))
2- cowgirl - (kat, Pygmy Rugger)
1- Lakai - (brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Queuing)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (storyteller)
1-Queuing (Aguecheek)

No votes yet from:

cowgirl, Malacandra, Pleonast, StarvingButStrong

And Rysto is current in Witness Protection or something like that.

[Lakai]

@Lakai

I think Smitty makes her look more scummy. Smitty suspected glee and Auto and he voted for Enfant and Gadarene.

The new cowgirl so far has suspected me, MadTheSwine, Pygmy Rugger. MTS turned out to be town so her record is not too good. That plus I never did like her reasons for suspecting these people. She has defended herself pretty well however, which has stopped her from being on the top of my scum list.

What’s suspicious about **brewha **is that he dismisses people’s defenses way too easily and with little reasoning. Here, here, here, here and here.

Then after he FOS’s Jsexton for not dying one night, he votes for Augecheek saying that beat cops are worthless anyway.

Here are my reasons for suspecting cowgirl and brewha. I haven’t found a better target so I’m going to stick it out with brewha. Hopefully more people will vote for him. I hope he doesn’t claim at the eleventh hour, because I won’t be around to switch my vote.

[Santo_Rugger]

If we go with Queuing’s paradigm of believing all role claims, and assume for a minute that Aguecheek’s a cop, then the Mafia or the SK is going to take him out soon. One of them killed pima the night after JSexton wasn’t around to protect anybody. I’m very dubious of Ague’s claim, but it might be better to leave him be for today, and focus on somebody else. If he’s not alive tomorrow or the next day, that lynch will pretty much decide itself.

[StarvingButStrong]

@Aguecheek

And now for the unpopular part of my presentation…I think my original investigation on Queuing as Serial Killer was correct.

I almost laughed when I read this.

Not because it’s ridiculous, but because I spent almost all my spare time Saturday and Sunday rereading this damned thread from the POV of assuming Queuing was mafia (maybe even the Godfather!) and seeing if I could make that ‘fit’ with his posts. Not looking for evidence that he was mafia, just whether there was evidence of non-scumminess I couldn’t explain away.

I was doing pretty darn well, too, for the first 49 pages. I especially liked my explanation for the voting patterns of Nesta and kivvik vs. Queuing: see, in my Q=scum version, he was an overenthusiastic mafia the first day, doing just about everything he could to shove townies up the gallow’s stairs. You now, that fishing for experienced players, that deliberate pretense that ChrisK’s ‘claim’ of being a beat cop was something that should be taken seriously and ChrisK forced to continue posting results or die, the insistance that CaerieD’s breadcrumb was distrust of Autolycus. Anyway, all that stuff that got him onto 10 different distrust lists. :eek:

So that night, the rest of the Mafia landed on him with admonishments, warnings, advice to lay low, hints on how to start looking more like townie, and similar stuff. I thought they might also have decided that some of them would vote to lynch Queuing early in the day. Strategy votes. If Queuing’s efforts to rehabilitate himself failed, Nesta and kivvik would gain townie points for having been among the earliest to vote for him. If Q did escape hanging, fine. And it turned out to work the other way round: once Nesta and kivvik were killed and revealed as Mafia, well, doesn’t it make it look that much more certain that Q is town?

Of course, then the day went to hell, and I think the mafia hadn’t planned for what happened any more than town did – claims coming left and right and votes leaping around like drunken grasshoppers. I think Q’s ‘nobility’ in accepting his death in the various conditional propositions was a combo of 1) ‘dying for the good of the town’ might make him look towny enough to escape (which it actually did) and 2) if you go back and look, every single one the conditionals that Q proposed or endorsed would have ended with the second death being a townie. So, he was taking one nobly for the scum.

Then, of course, it got flipped and suddenly Gadarene was the test case, and Q the vig target…which was no sweat. Q the mafia was quite sure G was town, so Q would be safe and it would be another townie targeted by the Vig.

All in all, I was satisfied that my Q as scum theory would fly, and I was getting very cheerful about it. Wahoo! I, a total newbie, had spotted another scum, and this one much more hidden that Suburban Plankton had been.

And then I got into Day 3. And I kept coming across Queuing voting to lynch or kill FCoD and Suburban Plankton. Why? Okay, FCoD was probably a gonner, but it was Fern Forrest who seemed lined up as next most suspicious, and Q going for SP instead.

Urk. No matter how I twisted it, I just couldn’t explain those votes as likely Mafia maneuvers.

So, sorry, my beautiful theory fell to the ground.

Now, I must confess I didn’t consider Q as Serial Killer at all. I guess I have a blind spot where that role is, because I just don’t see any reason a SK would post any different than a vanilla townie. It’s all to his benefit to get rid of the Mafia as fast as possible, yes? At least, until/unless the mafia get close to the upper hand… I mostly assume the SK gets killed by chance, one side thinking they’re targeting just another member of the other side.

These are my thoughts on my analysis of his posts. He talks a lot. He jokes about it, and hopes that you’ll laugh along with him. And then hides in the noise he’s created.

He sure does, doesn’t he? The idea of fewer posts to wade through almost sways me to vote for him. Almost.

Of course, right now I’ve a petty desire to vote for Pygmy Rugger for dissing all our beautiful research posts. HEY! A bunch of us wasted hours on a beautiful weekend to produce them. Couldn’t you at least ignore them silently?

[StarvingButStrong]

@Pygmy Rugger

If we go with Queuing’s paradigm of believing all role claims, and assume for a minute that Aguecheek’s a cop, then the Mafia or the SK is going to take him out soon. One of them killed pima the night after JSexton wasn’t around to protect anybody. I’m very dubious of Ague’s claim, but it might be better to leave him be for today, and focus on somebody else. If he’s not alive tomorrow or the next day, that lynch will pretty much decide itself.

I thing you mean, “if he IS alive tomorrow or the next day”?

If so, this seems sensible to me.

And…vote for Cowgirl.

She and a couple of others are actually tied on my list, but she got a second chance to play this game, so I’ll feel less badly about it if she dies and turns out to be town.

G’night.

[Santo_Rugger]

@StarvingButStrong

I thing you mean, “if he IS alive tomorrow or the next day”?

If so, this seems sensible to me.

<snip>

I thing you’re right.

[Aguecheek]

@Queuing

I am sorry but I still fail to see your point here. Pimaspinner was a cop, and of course I would vote with him. You may also have noticed that I voted with people who knew more then I did, such as a cop, and hence their vote has a better chance of being correct, so yes I followed them.

You voted with the people who had a better chance of being correct, you voted for BM based on JSexton’s FOS, you voted with the Masons. You’re lining yourself up with all the good guys, hoping that it’ll rub off on you.

@Queuing

What difference does it make? Anyway… I went with SK because I thought, at the time, that a good case had been made for him having a killing role. Since I thought he was anti-town, well there is only one killing role left, isn’t there?

It makes plenty of difference. You pointed to zuma, Pleonast and Blaster Master all being in on it together. And all of a sudden, you’re pointing to BM as the SK, who couldn’t be working together with the other two. You saw an opportunity to make your vote stronger, and you took it. My point is that you did not mention Blaster Master as the Serial Killer until after someone else had pointed it out. And then you jumped on it with both feet.

@Queuing

So whats the point of this questioning? You concede that I changed my mind just like I said I did, when I was no longer mad, and yet you make point again? Sorry man, no one is that stupid that you will catch them in a lie this quick.

No lie to catch. You’re telling the truth. You did unvote him, but as I noted, you acted very unhappy about it, and only unvoted after a large part of the town agreed to accept him. My point here is that you were all fired up to lynch him as the SK and wouldn’t let go of it. And then later on, you have no desire to target the SK at all, despite the fact that the situation’s getting more dire and your previous statements that the SK is a dreadfully important target to hit. And then later-er on…the SK is dreadfully important again.

@Queuing

Why thank you Sarcastic Aguecheek

No worries at all!

@Queuing

I don’t think voting sturmhauke was a bad idea, sorry. It was day 1. Random voting was all the vogue.

Heh. I do - it got me on a buttload of distrust lists and I haven’t been off since. And until I pointed you out as the SK, it’s the only action I can think of that’s put me on those lists. I’m not a prolific poster, and the one time I stuck my nose out there, it got bitten. Made it onto JSexton’s list, Blaster Master’s, yours. And you were FOS’ing me for no apparent reason I can think of (post #1459), except for that - the same vote as yours. Looks to me like you were basing your entire suspicion of me based on JSexton again.

@Queuing

Yeah, I was looking forward to what you had to say. Unfortunately you continued your horrible play and investigate someone a second time. Sorry I wasn’t thrilled you wasted yet another night.

Ah. I get it. So pima’s a good cop, 'cause she investigated FCOD twice and got the same result. I’m a horrible cop 'cause I investigated you only on MTS’s say so and got a different result. Check. True that I agree that the cop role sucks and that I investigated people to confirm roles rather than obtain them. Mea culpa. I don’t claim to be the best player here, never have. However, my point…again, is that I have pointed you out as the Serial Killer. You. Once the night was over, a reasonable person, regardless of how they read the directions for whom to investigate, would have said something along the lines of relief that they were exonerated (halfway, anyways), would have responded to the post with an agreement that the directions were confusing and suggested another target when this night was over. You didn’t. You didn’t reply at all, which looks to me like you just wanted to get the SK stuff behind us all and move on to another target.

@Queuing[/quote

Sorry I wasn’t exactly sure what time you were talking about before. I thought you were talking about the time I said we shouldn’t worry about the SK and instead should focus on scum. I caught a lot of flack for that, and explained myself like 3 times. I did it one last time, and then said that was it. You should have known what I was saying about the SK by then, and agree/disagree I couldn’t change your minds nor would anyone benefit from my repeating myself. Yet here we are…

I’m terribly sorry. I didn’t realize I was supposed to respect your wishes not to discuss things anymore because you’d said that was it. It doesn’t take much. “You’re right, just has to live at the end. I still don’t want to talk about it.” Overall, you’re entirely correct, it’s not a big thing at all. But compare that with the times you did want to talk about the Serial Killer and how fired up important it was, the sudden dismissal is quite a turnaround.

@Queuing

That would be sweet. Got any? Don’t know how that is inconsistent mind you. Me saying “hey lets not worry about the SK because I don’t know how we can find him”. Then someone going “hey this is how we can find them, and here is who I think it is”, me again “cool, sounds good lets kill them”.

Thanks for asking. I propose we have a closer look at the posts of a guy who came up SK in a cop investigation. After all, 50/50’s good enough. And try to look for points about him that seem odd. There’s nothing I can think that we can point to directly unfortunately, but maybe we might be able to find a time when he pushed for finding or lynching the Serial Killer, and pushed against it when it wasn’t to his advantage. Let’s look for somebody who’s vehement about lynching the Serial Killer when it’s someone else who’s been identified as such. But when there’s no one in particular, not so much. Getting the Serial Killer is only important when somebody else has identified them. Apparently they’re not that important otherwise, after all, they need to kill 27 people to win.

[StarvingButStrong]

@StarvingButStrong

Hey guys –
2- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMench, Sturmhauke, Menocchio)

::sigh:: Okay, I’m bad at math, but this is a new low. Shall we count? One, two, two, two, two, …
New and improved vote list:

3- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMench, Sturmhauke, Menocchio)
3- cowgirl - (kat, Pygmy Rugger, StarvingButStrong)
2- Malacandra - (ArizonaTeach, hocow)
2- brewha - (lakai, Fretful Porpentine))
1- Lakai - (brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Queuing)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (storyteller)
1-Queuing (Aguecheek)

[Queuing]

Any chance of an official vote count? And anyone know how much time is left? I would prefer that aguecheek does not die, and will change my vote if it becomes necessary. I also would prefer that Cowgirl not die, at least not until she has posted her assignment :). Of course that may leave me with a choice I don’t want to make, but I will if I must.

[storyteller0910]

This is getting harder and harder, not easier and easier as I was hoping it would. There are currently 20 players left in the game:

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
brewha
cowgirl
Fretful Porpentine
hocow
Kat
Lakai
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
Pleonast
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Rysto
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke

Now, I’d like to start, as I have in the past, with a few assumptions. Once again, I think it’s a very good idea for these assumptions to be questioned. If people take different approaches in deciding how to vote, and two or more variant approaches come to a similar conclusion, it might yield a good target. So, here are my temporary assumptions for today’s vote:

1. We shouldn’t be worrying about the SK right now. I have no idea how to find him or her, and with so little time left until the deadline that’s not an avenue I want to pursue until later.

2. sturmhauke and Pleonast are Masons (Given)

3. Menocchio is town. There is still the possibility that he is the Godfather, but I think we can worry about that if and when we get down to the endgame if we still haven’t caught the GF.

4. Lakai is town, or likely enough to be that he should not be a lynch target today. Why? Well, first of all, there’s pimaspinner’s last report, which unless I’m screwing up the math means he has something in the vicinity of a 75% probability of being town on that basis alone. Also: I read brewha’s case against Lakai a few times, and something struck me. brewha is absolutely right: with the exception of a conditional vote for FCoD, **Lakai ** has attacked exclusively townfolk. Maybe I’m overthinking this a bit, but would this be a Mafia move? If Lakai were Mafia, he would know that sooner or later his voting record would start to look bad, because he would know that he was voting for only town. Now this could be part of a sneaky “be-really-obvious” gambit, but coupled with pima’s findings it takes him off the suspicion list for me right now.

5. Aguecheek should not be lynched today. I make this assumption even if he is lying and is really scum. If he is not scum, he will be night-killed later or (much more probably) sooner. If townies start dropping left and right and he doesn’t, then we can lynch him at our leisure - as I think I said in a previous post, we know where he is. Better to let him hang around because if he is a beat cop and we kill him, we have essentially given the Mafia an extra night kill in addition to losing any information we might get from him.

6. Queuing is not Mafia, nor is Malacandra. I am basing this on my belief that two players who get into a direct, one-on-one confrontation that lasts for many posts are unlikely to be scum, because scum wouldn’t want to place the spotlight so firmly on them.

7. storyteller0910 (me) is town.

8. Finally, Rysto should not be lynched today. I have no particular feeling about him one way or the other - my early impressions of him as strongly town have faded to a general sense of “I have no idea” - but since he’s gone today and can’t defend himself, we should stay far away from him for the nonce.

On the list above, I’ve boldfaced all of the players that I have (temporarily) removed from consideration (at least by me). On the list below, these names have been taken off the list:

ArizonaTeach
brewha
cowgirl
Fretful Porpentine
hocow
Kat
MonkeyMensch
Pygmy Rugger
StarvingButStrong

There are nine people on this list. It is very possible that more than half of them are Mafia, which means a shot in the dark would yield a good chance of finding a bad guy.

Next up, closer analysis of the nine people listed above.

[Menocchio]

Yeah, I’ll drop Aguecheek. Might as well ignore him until other choices are exhausted.

Vote brewha.

[Pleonast]

Hmm, neither cowgirl nor Malacandra have voted. Looks like I’ll vote for cowgirl.

[brewha]

I agree that this isn’t getting any easier. I was hoping that we could come to a concensus on who was scum based on the post recaps.

We got about 1:10 left before lynch time, and I hate to see someone go to the noose wit only three votes. Mafia alone can form that size of a lynch mob.

We need to hear from the lurkers who haven’t voted yet.

[cowgirl]

• this post is written in great haste.

• I have not read through the whole thread again nor done Kat’s analysis for which I profoundly apologize. For what it’s worth she has always been high on my Suspected Townie list because of consistently honest and helpful analysis.

@Kat

Where the hell is my analysis? sulks in corner

I am so, so, so sorry. I honestly haven’t spent this little time on the 'Dope in, well, years. Please don’t take it personally, you are quite worthy! in spite of your feline nature (achoo!)

• I apologize again for disappearing; my dog had surgery on Friday, I was hit with a sinus infection Sunday, had to go out of town for work on Monday and this morning I am coordinating a huge media release thing that isn’t working quite the way we planned. All in all I have not had nearly as much time to participate as I had hoped. And I am going to have six people in my office staring at my monitor at 10:30 so I can’t do much at that time! Kill me if you must. I have screwed this game up completely.

Role claim - altho you don’t have any reason to believe me - I am the Guardian Angel. I should have protected Pima or JSexton or Blaster, now that I have missed my chance I don’t know who to protect any more.

• They killed the first me because they thought I had a power role, because I asked what was in it for the power roles to post lots of analysis. They thought it was a naive question by a doctor (or something). In my defense I would not have asked such an obvious question if I DID have a power role.

My defenses:

@Kat

Vote cowgirl

In addition to what Lakai said, her unvote/revote of MadTheSwine worries me, specificially the “But for now, I am not convinced enough to drive this bandwagon, so unvote MadTheSwine.” and then “This is a bandwagon I would rather get behind. unvote Malacandra, vote MadTheSwine.” Makes it sound like a bandwagon for MTS is okay as long as she’s not the one who might get blamed for it.

Fair call. I was suspicious of MTS but in a game like this, one person’s suspicion isn’t worth much. It becomes more worthy when others share it. That’s all I meant. YMMV.

• I am still suspicious of Lakai and Pygmy Rugger but I find this most convincing:

@ArizonaTeach

With that in mind, noting that Malacandra, nesta, and FCOD immediately supported the disastrous vig-kill plan where Pleonast, Gadarene, and Queuing were the sacrificial lambs, I believe that, my friends, was a serious mob pile on.

Vote Malacandra - even tho voting for Aguecheek would put him/her in the lead, I really don’t think s/he is scum.

Gotta go. I may see you on the other side. Sorry for being so appallingly bad at this.

[StarvingButStrong]

Since no one else seems to be doing this, new vote count:

4- cowgirl - (kat, Pygmy Rugger, StarvingButStrong, Pleonast)
3- brewha - (lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Menocchio)
2- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMench, Sturmhauke)
2- Malacandra - (ArizonaTeach, hocow)
1- Lakai - (brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Queuing)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (storyteller)
1-Queuing (Aguecheek)

[StarvingButStrong]

@cowgirl

Role claim - altho you don’t have any reason to believe me - I am the Guardian Angel. I should have protected Pima or JSexton or Blaster, now that I have missed my chance I don’t know who to protect any more.

Shit. Shit.

I think our ‘believe all claims’ motto has gone seriously wrong. It means that every suspect can claim anything and Bingo! Get out of jail free.

Double points if you wait until the (almost literally true) ELEVENTH HOUR to make your claim, so people have to scramble like mad to find another candidate AND that means the new candidate then has NO time to mount a decent defense – which is rottenly unfair. :mad:

So… I dunno. I’m going to think about this for a few minutes before possibly changing my vote.
Count right now:

4- cowgirl - (kat, Pygmy Rugger, StarvingButStrong, Pleonast)
3- brewha - (lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Menocchio)
3- Malacandra - (ArizonaTeach, hocow, cowgirl)
2- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMench, Sturmhauke)
1- Lakai - (brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Queuing)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (storyteller)
1-Queuing (Aguecheek)
[/QUOTE]

[storyteller0910]

@cowgirl

• this post is written in great haste.

• I have not read through the whole thread again nor done Kat’s analysis for which I profoundly apologize. For what it’s worth she has always been high on my Suspected Townie list because of consistently honest and helpful analysis.

I am so, so, so sorry. I honestly haven’t spent this little time on the 'Dope in, well, years. Please don’t take it personally, you are quite worthy! in spite of your feline nature (achoo!)

• I apologize again for disappearing; my dog had surgery on Friday, I was hit with a sinus infection Sunday, had to go out of town for work on Monday and this morning I am coordinating a huge media release thing that isn’t working quite the way we planned. All in all I have not had nearly as much time to participate as I had hoped. And I am going to have six people in my office staring at my monitor at 10:30 so I can’t do much at that time! Kill me if you must. I have screwed this game up completely.

Role claim - altho you don’t have any reason to believe me - I am the Guardian Angel. I should have protected Pima or JSexton or Blaster, now that I have missed my chance I don’t know who to protect any more.

• They killed the first me because they thought I had a power role, because I asked what was in it for the power roles to post lots of analysis. They thought it was a naive question by a doctor (or something). In my defense I would not have asked such an obvious question if I DID have a power role.

My defenses: Fair call. I was suspicious of MTS but in a game like this, one person’s suspicion isn’t worth much. It becomes more worthy when others share it. That’s all I meant. YMMV.

• I am still suspicious of Lakai and Pygmy Rugger but I find this most convincing:
  Vote Malacandra - even tho voting for Aguecheek would put him/her in the lead, I really don’t think s/he is scum.

Gotta go. I may see you on the other side. Sorry for being so appallingly bad at this.

Whoa. Coming to a screeching halt to ask: why didn’t you protect pima last night?

[Queuing]

@cowgirl

Role claim - altho you don’t have any reason to believe me - I am the Guardian Angel. I should have protected Pima or JSexton or Blaster, now that I have missed my chance I don’t know who to protect any more.

Bah, yet another role claim. Unfortunately I see no purpose in your role claim. You are right, you should have used your power a lot earlier.

Sorry for the stress in your life.

Well first things first, unvote monkey mensch

And I suppose lynch brewha even though there are people I would much rather lynch (monkey mensch/malacandra) however it seems brewha is in the 2nd closest to dieing and since I don’t want to vote for aguecheek or cowgirl now.

[Santo_Rugger]

@storyteller0910

Whoa. Coming to a screeching halt to ask: why didn’t you protect pima last night?

Seriously. The GA gets two protects, right? Last night, the doctor and the cop should have been protected. Period. JSexton didn’t protect himself for one of two reasons. He thought another player was more valuable, or was chosing the target of his protect randomly. Hindsight is 20/20, sure. I’d be much more likely to believe this claim, and change my vote, if those two hadn’t died last night.

[MonkeyMensch]

I’m going to let my vote ride where it stands, that is with Aguecheek. Cowgirl’s suspicious to me still but I don’t like the company I’d be keeping with my fellow voters. Pleonast excepted, they’re not real scummy, but they’re certainly question marks to me.