Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
3261

All right, so who’s left? I’ve already outlined my feelings aboutbrewha, which his responses have not changed. sturmhauke and Pleonast are off the table, and I’m not going to vote for myself. As noted yesterday, I believe that Lakai is probably town, based on pima’s reading and my own analysis of his voting history. Everyone else I’m returning to the pile for further study. Here’s the list, with my comments - my top two suspects helpfully saved for last, everyone else presented in alphabetical order:

Aguecheek / cowgirl: Convenient that these two are first, because I have the same problem with both of them: I doubt their stories, but worry about significantly hurting the town effort if my doubt is misguided.

Let me start with cowgirl, because I think her status informs Aguecheek’s. I have doubts that she is the Guardian Angel, based on two things. The first is that I had assumed right up to the moment of her role claim that there was no GA in the game at all. In his original rule post, NAF presented a list of “Possible roles NOT all of which are being used.” There is no wiggle room in that statement, no “may” not be used, no maybe; at least one of the roles described by NAF is not in the game. We have confirmation so far of every pro-town role except the Miller and the GA. It is possible that NAF gave us a list and exempted only one role, but I considered that unlikely. Still possible, though. However, if there is a Miller out there, then cowgirl’s claim is definitely false, based on my reading of the rules.

Further, if she is the GA, there is no earthly reason why pima should not have been protected on the night she died. Everyone knew pima would be the target that night; a few people even said it explicitly in the thread. cowgirl’s claim that she hadn’t had time to catch up by then is odd - if she has a night role, she could theoretically have requested the entire 48 real life hours to catch up and make a protection decision.

So, doubt. But… Last night Menocchio was killed. I am assuming that he was killed by Mafia, targeting a semi-confirmed townie. Why Menocchio and not a putative power role in Ague or one of our Masons? Well, several possible reasons: (1) cowgirl isn’t Mafia, and the Mafia was afraid that she might block one (or more) of those three targets, so they went for a target unlikely to be protected; (2) cowgirl IS Mafia, but they wanted us to think they were thinking that way. We must also consider the possibility that Aguecheek is Mafia, and so wouldn’t have been targeted either way.

I see four possibilities:

  1. Both cowgirl and Ague are what they claim to be.
  2. Ague is Mafia and cowgirl is not, in which case cowgirl unwittingly gives the Mob a cover reason to not kill Ague.
  3. cowgirl is Mafia and Ague is not. I don’t believe this is actually the case; if it was, Aguecheek would be dead right now.
  4. They’re both scum, in which case they’ve created a really nice bluff that we can expose only by lynching one of them.

‘Tis a puzzlement, and I don’t know the best way to go with this problem.

More forthcoming shortly; I figure I’ll try to break my contribution up into separate posts to avoid taxing the Board.

3262

The mafia could also be going after the SK. I would not give too much credit to your choice #2, because it is very beneficial for the mafia to kill confirmed towns. It gives the town a bigger pool of unknowns to choose from and less chance of getting mafia.

3263

The Mafia are winning. They need to kill the Serial Killer more than they need to kill Townies. The Masons are obviously not the SK (unless NAF is really screwing with our minds :wink: ). Masons will be safe until the SK is found.

Once the SK is killed, the Guardian Angel should protect one (but probably not both) of the Masons.

3264

Storyteller, I see that you are still convinced of my scumminess. I may have chosen the wrong words to articulate my suspicions, but that does not mean that my suspicions are wrong or that I am mafia.

Re-read the situation that lead to MadTheSwine’s lynching. If I were mafia, I would have just sat back and let the lynching happen. I had my vote on someone else, so if I were mafia, and therefore knew that MTS was going to turn up town, I wouldn’t have looked suspicious because I wasn’t voting for him.

I didn’t know that MTS wasn’t town, but I had greater suspicions of others and no reason to beleive that he wasn’t town.

In the same situation, lets say that I was the SK. That makes even less sense. IMO, the last thing the SK would want to do is to draw attention. Why would the SK care who got lynched? Once again, the SK’s best response would be to leave their vote on someone who wasn’t going to get lynched so that after the lynching, they could sit back and say that it wasn’t their fault because they didn’t vote for the lynchee.

Whether it be Mob or SK, they certainly wouldn’t stand up in front of the crowd and ask everyone to reconsider their vote.
I will admit that I’m really bad at this game. I spent the first few days sitting back and listening more than participating. When I found that that didn’t work, I started to get vocal about who I thought was or wasn’t scum. All that seems to do is put the spotlight on me. It hasn’t been casting me in a very good light either. But, I’m not going to just sit back and let the town get manipulated by the Mob. If that leads to my death, so be it - I’d rather go down fighting.

3265

Oh, and not to put too much pressure on, here’s a scary thought.

If we don’t manage to lynch scum today or tomorrow, and the SK takes out town tonight and tomorrow night, the SK wins and we all lose.

We got the rest of today and tomorrow to get this figured out, or our fair Cecilton goes to the dogs.

3266

Oh, that’s assuming that there is 4 or 5 mafia left. If there’s more than that, we lose tomorrow, if there’s less we get another day.

3267

You know, at this point, you get points from me just for posting to the thread at all; it seems like the game has petered out quite a bit. We’re 24 hours into the Day and nothing is really happening.

And I’m hating my own analysis at this point. I just spent an hour trying to formulate a post that would lay out my reasons for suspecting Pygmy Rugger and hocow in devestating fashion, and found that apart from Pygmy’s seeming tendency to vote where it’s most convenient, and hocow’s leaping into the Malacandra / Queuing dustup a few days ago in what seemed like an opportunistic fashion, I don’t really have anything like the evidence I thought I had.

We need new evidence, which is only going to come from further discussion. If people don’t start talking soon, we’re going to be in a lot of trouble.

3268

The Mafia can out themselves to the town one-by-one to buy time. The sooner they do this, the more time they buy. I’d encourage the Mafia to buy as much time as possible. :smiley:

3269

Huh? Isn’t this what I am doing? What you accuse me of doing at least? Standing up in front of the crowd? And isn’t this the reason you think I am scum, maybe the SK?

I am sorry, but very few of your arguments make sense. You accuse me of one thing, use it to try to drum up support to lynch me, yet when someone accuses you, you use it as a defense?

Huh?

Lynch Brewha

3270

This isn’t the reason, this is a reason.

All the rest of our vocal players have been taken out. You are still alive because either

A) you’re mafia

or

B) You are wrong on your accusations and the mob doesn’t see you as a threat.
I’m betting that it is A.
Back when you and Malacandra got into it, I figured that one of you two were mafia. We now know it wasn’t him.

3271

So who are these vocal players who have been taken out for being vocal?

3272

So far it has been Blaster Master and Jsexton. Both were killed by Mafia after they were forced to role claim by Queuing.

I see a disturbing trend going on. It seems that everyone who has had a dispute with Queuing has ended up dead one way or another. So far, Zuma, Malacandra, Blaster Master, Jsexton, and Guadrene have all either FOS’d Queuing or have been fingered by him. They are all dead.

This post I find quite
condemning. Queuing want to us to lynch either a mason or a townie. And if (surprise surprise) they don’t turn up as scum, he wants us to take out our doc.

Here he truly believes that our Vigilante and two of our masons are scum. The rest of his list is either still alive or confirmed town.

Once again he calls for the deaths for our Vigilante and two of our masons.

I reall don’t get this one.

Queuing is saying that if Gadarene is town (which he is) we should kill Zuma who he 100% beleives is trustworthy?!? WTF?

I only made it through about half of his posts and this is what I came up with. I’ll dig deeper, but I want to encourage all of the actual townies to go through this post summary and see for yourselves.

If Queuing isn’t mafia, he is one bad judge of character.

3273

So, the Vigilante and the Doctor? And you think that they were night-killed for talking a lot? :dubious:

3274

How did we know that they were the VIG and the Doc? They were forced to role claim, because they went up against Queuing. I’m not making this up. Go and read his post summary.

I’m compiling some more of his damning posts, but feel free to read them yourself.

3275

Heh.

Part of my concern with Queuing right now is that - although I personally believe him to be town - nearly every Day seems to be dominated by discussion of Queuing and whatever player is in conflict with him. This makes it even easier to hide from scrutiny; it seems you can say whatever you want; as long as you don’t get engaged in the Queuing dustup of the Day, no one will really even notice you. I think that’s a function of Queuing’s prolific posting, but it’s becoming a huge problem. There are a considerable number of players who have managed to get this far without leaving much of an impression at all.

I am beginning to believe that the town, as a whole, has to either decide provisionally to trust Queuing for now, or lynch him. But we need to stop talking about him and start talking about other candidates, one way or another, because we’re becoming a bit myopic and it’s hurting us.

3276

Ok, so Queuing has had the bad luck of having a part in us forcing the Vig and Doc to out themselves. Given that he couldn’t possibly have known their roles whether he is scum or not, what, exactly, does this prove?

3277

Just so everyone is prepared, I’m expecting a 10,000 word thesis from Queuing that doesn’t really explain why he’s innocent. It will just be long enough so that everyone will choose to presume his innocence rather than read it all.

3278

It proves, like I said before, that Queuing is bad for the town. Whether or not he knew their roles, if he were mafia, he knew that they were town. And, judging by his performance so far, he is damn good at what he does and probably had a pretty good guess that they had power roles before forcing them to claim.

3279

That is exactly what I’m saying. I was one of those that just sat in the background and watched town get lynched. Now I’ve called him out again and almost got lynched yesterday. And, if he has his way, I will get it today.

It is hurting us and it is becoming a trend. It seems that every day, someone casts suspicion on Queuing and everyday someone other than Queuing gets lynched. Either we ignore him or we lynch him. I don’t care which, we just need to stop listening to him.

3280

IIRC, We’ve successfully lynched scum once, and that was because a Cop successfully investigatedFCoD. I don’t think that there’s a living townie who we can say has been “good for the town” by that measure.