Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
3321

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
Hold on here. You’re looking at me askance because I did investigate Blaster Master and pimaspinner after they role claimed, and now because I didn’t investigate cowgirl? I’m trying to decide who to investigate based on what the town wants.
[/QUOTE]

I never said anything against your investigation of Blaster Master. At the time, there wasn’t much evidence in favour of his claim. It was unfortunate that you and pima both investigated him, but not entirely unexpected.

An investigation of cowgirl would have been similarly useful. We have no other way of testing her claim.

However, your investigation of pimaspinner wasn’t very useful. What would you have said if FCoD was scum but pima came back Mafia? In all likelihood, that would indicate that your investigation was wrong. If FCoD was Town, then he would have been a Miller, which would make it even more likely that pima was a beat cop. After all, what are the chances that a Mafioso would randomly choose a Miller out of all the townspeople?

Sacrifice a Mafioso to save the life of a Mafioso? I hardly see how that’s a good trade for the Mafia. It might be a good move if pima had been the Godfather, but if pima was the Godfather, your investigation was worthless.

3322

[QUOTE=StarvingButStrong]
We have GOT to kill Mafia today or I think we’ve lost.

I say Mafia rather than SK, because

A) I think our chances of getting one are better because First, there are more Mafia than SK and so 5/15 is better odds than 1/15 and Second, Mafia have been anti-town all along while the SK had no reason to go after townies instead of mafia, at least until very recently, and so our chances of finding him/her based on voting records seem slim.

B) We know the Mafia also want the SK dead as much as we do. If the SK is still in the game tonight, likely they’ll be shooting for the SK instead of a townie. If they manage to get it right, bonus for us.

I realize the danger of having the SK alive is rising rapidly, I just think our best shot of winning is for this to happen: we lynch mafia today, SK kills mafia tonight, mafia kills SK tonight. (Um. If the mafia do target the SK, does his target die? I think so…) Anyway, then dawn would find us with:

3 Mafia /9 town

Wouldn’t THAT be great?
[/QUOTE]

I sorta disagree with this one. I mean, I agree with Point A, and I agree that it would be great if we were to kill Mafia today, and SK were to kill Mafia tonight, and the Mafia were to kill the SK tonight, but I disagree with Point B. We DON’T know if the Mafia are shooting for the SK yet (Unless one of them wants to reveal their role and tell us they are? makes puppy-dog eyes in the direction of suspected Mafia members sighs Didn’t think so…) and we DON’T know that they have any better an idea than we do who it is (although they do have a smaller number to choose from). Face it, the SK’s been pretty damn good at hiding throughout this game. Add to that, we also don’t know that the SK is going to target Mafia or whether the SK will hit a Mafia if they are.

So my question now is, sturmhauke, how sure are you on that Queuing as SK theory?

3323

Okay, just for fun:

Other than sturmhauke’s FOS towards Queuing above, I found the following SK identity theories:

-In 3249, storyteller fingers brewha as a possible SK, on the “One player has reason to avoid lynching at any and all costs.” theory.
-In several posts, including 3148 and 3167, Aguecheek fingers Queuing as SK, based on his posting summary listed in 3133, 3134 & 3135 (I haven’t linked them, just scroll up from 3148).
-In 3114, ArizonaTeach posts the possibility that StarvingButStrong may be SK, based on the posting summary of SBS from 3094.
-In 3115, hocow mentions that she thought Fretful was SK, but admits ArizonaTeach might be right about SBS. Hey, hocow, what made you suspect Fretful?
-Someone other than Malacandra had thought hocow was the SK, but I can’t find that post right now. Does anyone remember who it was?

Both Queuing and StarvingButStrong are currently saying that flushing out the SK isn’t important right now, and both Queuing and brewha are arguing against being SK. SBS, Fretful and hocow have not been suspected by multiple people (disregarding Malacandra’s suspicion). (One player (hocow) posted that the SBS accusation may be right, but it isn’t clear if she’s supporting the suspicion, or just the logic behind it.)

Aguecheek is arguing most vehemetly against Queuing, but seeing as how I’m currently suspecting Aguecheek of Mafia-ness, I can’t decide if he just wants Queuing out of the picture, or if he truly thinks Queuing is SK and wants the town to take care of it for him.

Assigned reading assignment: post 3158 for Pleonasts’ argument on needing to kill the SK soon:

3324

I don’t think Queuing can be the SK; he posts way too much and has drawn too much attention to himself. There are plausible reasons why a Mafia member might want to do this, but the only winning strategy for the SK is to post just enough to avoid looking suspicious and otherwise stay off of everyone’s radar. Once he’s dead, that’s it, and more visibility = greater chance of getting lynched or night-killed.

3325

I’m voting Aguecheek, again, andthis helps me vote that way.

If Aguecheek is scum then this post benefits them two ways. If I die first then Aguecheek gets a bump of believability as a cop since he investigated me and came up town. If Aguecheek dies first then the mafia gets a good shot at a townie lynch when suspicion comes my way as it would appear that he was covering for a fellow mafioso.

If Aquecheek is not scum then I have helped screw things up. I’m willing to bet my vote that it is the former case presented. I’ve voted for him before and do so now again. Please be scum…

3326

[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
I don’t think Queuing can be the SK; he posts way too much and has drawn too much attention to himself. There are plausible reasons why a Mafia member might want to do this, but the only winning strategy for the SK is to post just enough to avoid looking suspicious and otherwise stay off of everyone’s radar. Once he’s dead, that’s it, and more visibility = greater chance of getting lynched or night-killed.
[/QUOTE]

Very true. And brewha is currently the 3rd highest poster (right behind zuma). I see just the opposite problem with SK suspicions of you, StarvingButStrong and hocow, especially as all 3 of you were called for low posting multiple times by Queuing. SBS is right in the middle of the pack now, and you’re a bit below average, but you’d think (or at least I do) that if the SK was in that low-posting list that Queuing kept bringing up, they’d have rectified it at least after he called for a Vig kill on someone on the list.

If it weren’t for the fact that Lakai came up town when pimaspinner investigated, I’d strongly consider him for SK. He doesn’t say much that’s controversial, and his post count is firmly middle-of-the-road: 38 posts per Queuing’s list in 1795 put him just a bit below the average and current post count of 94 is right in the middle again.

Or maybe it’s Rysto. He’s off everyone’s radar. :wink:

3327

I am drunk now, and home at my GFs house, happy that NJ just scored, but here is what I wanted to post before I left to watch the game:

Well I don’t have much to add. I don’t like aguecheek’s idea of “mafia throwing us a bone”. Why would they do this? Why would you throw a bone to your competition? This makes no sense to me at all. The mere idea is very silly to me as well.

I am not the SK. I don’t know why the scum haven’t killed me yet. I think its because they are pretty sure the town will do it for them. I think that is why they have been killing the people they have. Either because they were roles that could cause them so trouble (cops/mason/vig) or townies who have been quiet and hence not likely to be lynched. They want to each day to be a twofer for them.

Based on this thinking, there is someone who has should have been a threat to them. This person is the cop. He isn’t dead. I find this more suspicious then my being left alive.

unvote fretfuk porpentine
lynch aguecheek

I don’t know how to answer your FOS sturmhauke. You seem to think I am the SK. All I can say is I am not. I hate the SK role. I think the SK has a very good chance of winning this game, and that is because there is no way to tell who is the SK. No tells.

I will not be here again until tomorrow night, FYI.

3328

[QUOTE=Queuing]
I am drunk now, and home at my GFs house, happy that NJ just scored,
[/QUOTE]

Now there’s a scummy thing to post. :wink:

3329

Now I wanna know what made Queuing change his “believe all role claims” strategy so suddenly.

3330

What’s the current vote count?

3331

By my count, it’s:

Aguecheek - 5 (Rysto, Kat, Fretful Porcupine, Monkey Mensch, Queuing)
Queuing - 4 (brewha, Aguecheek, Pygmy Rugger, sturmhauke)
brewha - 1 (Lakai)
hocow - 1 (Pleonast)

3332

Ah. So Queuing did violate his “believe all claims” strategy to save his own neck. Now I need to have a bit of a think about this…

3333

[QUOTE=Rysto]
By my count, it’s:

Aguecheek - 5 (Rysto, Kat, Fretful Porcupine, Monkey Mensch, Queuing)
Queuing - 4 (brewha, Aguecheek, Pygmy Rugger, sturmhauke)
brewha - 1 (Lakai)
hocow - 1 (Pleonast)
[/QUOTE]

I thought I voted for Aguecheek in 3319 – but now I see somehow I screwed up the color. Let me try again:

Vote Aguecheek

3334

[QUOTE=Kat]
Ah. So Queuing did violate his “believe all claims” strategy to save his own neck. Now I need to have a bit of a think about this…
[/QUOTE]

Yes and no. I knew I was on the block, and it seemed that my vote for Fretful wasn’t doing much. S/He came in and said they were halfway across the world and real life was interfering. Which for all I know is true. Personally I am getting somewhat tired of the “real life is interfering” excuse, as we have had a couple RL days here, and still not that much action from some of the people.

Plus I don’t believe his role claim, and even if its true he has done a crap job of using that role, so on balance I don’t think we lose much if he dies.

I would prefer to lynch on of the less prolific posters however.

3335

How much longer do we have until the deadline? I’m not thrilled with either of the primary targets. In particular, the reasoning behind the nineteenth attempt to lynch Queuing is almost completely opaque to me. No one has yet made a case against Queuing that reads to me like anything more than “he posts a lot and he’s been wrong a lot and therefore he makes an easy target, let’s lynch him.” I realize I’m going to look awfully bad if he turns out to be scum, but I just don’t get this line of attack.

Augecheek seems like a slightly more defensible lynch. He’s still alive, and someone (most likely Mafia) killed pima the first chance they had. On the other hand, by the time pima was killed, we had by and large accepted her role claim, hadn’t we? Because we’ve (I think reasonably) questioned Aguecheek’s claim basically since he made it, I can see a motivation for the Mafia to leave him alive if he’s a for-realsies Cop; we might kill him for them. Plus, the Beat Cop investigations haven’t exactly helped us as a town so far.

That said, if time is as short as I think it is, and if no one is interested in looking at candidates other than the two at top of the list right now (and why not, for crying out loud; why do we keep riding the same horses Day after Day while allowing the less prominent folks to completely escape scrutiny?), I guess I’d prefer an Aguecheek lynch to a Queuing.

How much time is left?

3336

[QUOTE=NAF1138]

The day ends in exactly 120 hours. 11:30 Monday pacific time.

[/Quote]

And just because I have nothing better to do this morning, here is NAF’s list of remaining players, with how many posts they have made since the start of this ‘day’ added by me:

brewha - 18
Queuing - 14
Rysto - 14
Kat - 12
StarvingButStrong - 8
Storyteller0910 - 6
Lakai - 5
Aguecheek - 4
Pygmy Rugger - 4
Fretful Porpentine - 3
Pleonast - 3
MonkeyMensch - 2
Sturmhauke - 2
hocow - 1
cowgirl - 0
Which shows, what? Brewha defends himself vigorously when under suspicion. Queuing posts a lot all the time. The ‘cows’ are being very quiet. I manage to post at a better clip when I don’t have to spend a ten hour stretch away from the internet. Others post relatively less on weekends.

IOW, I don’t think post counts mean a whole lot.

3337

Well, three players have yet to vote. Get those votes in now, people, so we have time for final discussions before the lynch. I don’t want to see a last-minute bandwagon take the lead – I’ll regard that as very scummy(and yes, I do realize that I helped start a last-minute bandwagon 2 Days ago).

3338

[rp off]
I just got back this weekend after a week plus out of town. I should be more conversational tomorrow, if I live at all, 'cause I have some medium down-time.
[/rp off]

3339

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
That said, if time is as short as I think it is, and if no one is interested in looking at candidates other than the two at top of the list right now (and why not, for crying out loud; why do we keep riding the same horses Day after Day while allowing the less prominent folks to completely escape scrutiny?), I guess I’d prefer an Aguecheek lynch to a Queuing.

How much time is left?
[/QUOTE]

Who’s your preferred candidate for lynching? You earlier listed brewha as your pick for SK, but who’s your top choice for Mafia right now?

3340

I gotta say I’m a bit conflicted. I put Aguecheek pretty near the top of my list as scum. I really don’t believe his role claim. Since he has voted for Queuing, presumably they are on different sides. So, unless one of them is the SK, one of my suspicions are wrong.