So you think scum wouldn’t vote for each other, “in the hopes that it will demonstrate their innocence”? :dubious:
The problem is that at this stage of the game playing for the town and playing for myself are essentially the same thing. If the SK keeps going after town and the mafia fail to kill the SK, we have two days to lynch mafia. Lets say that there is four mafia left. That means that there is 10 town and one SK. If we lynch town, it’s down to 9(town)-1(SK)-4(Mafia). Tonight it goes to 7-1-4, if we screw up again tomorrow, it’s 6-1-4. If the SK and Mafia kills town we all lose. It’s the same scenario even if there is 5 mafia, except on the final night, only the SK needs to kill town. IE 10-1-5; 8-1-5; 7-1-5; 5-1-5.
I know I’m town and I am going to defend myself if anyone suspects me. I know that my death leads us one step closer to losing. I’ve invested way to much time in this game to go down without a fight.
Wish I could edit. The second scenario should say that it is the same scenario even if there is 5 mafia. There shouldn’t be a caveat.
And, that post was in response to Storyteller’s post (3359).
Let’s try again, the second scenario would have the caveat, but I got the numbers wrong. It should be: 9-1-5; 7-1-5; 6-1-5; 4-1-5.
Regardless of my screwed up math and logic. We have today and tomorrow to kill mafia. If we don’t, we likely lose.
I am still looking for reasons to be convinced about Aguecheek.
For some reason folks don’t like my bringing up very old posts as evidence. Frankly it’s all I have to go on, since the mafia was all mafia at the beginning too, and clearly, recent posts aren’t enough to give us the info we need.
So this exchange struck me, casting some suspicion on **Queuing **and Aguecheek: it was Queuing that first FOS’d **sturmhauke **for surviving the night (in post 304) and Aguecheek picked it up in 393. We are now confident that sturm is town, so I consider Ag and Q equally suspicious now. but I am early in my reread so I am not prepared to vote for them. I’m only posting this now so I can get it in before the deadline.
The problem is, I keep having to choose between voting for people I think are scum (suspects I have listed before) and people who the town thinks are scum. Aguecheek was about to get lynched yesterday and I never figured out why. I’m not convinced of the logic against him today, and as Pygmy Rugger just pointed out that my reasoning is faulty, I’m not going to vote for him.
So I’m going to stick with my principles and vote for the ones I truly feel to be scummy. lynch Pygmy Rugger
You know what? I agree.
unvote Aguecheek
vote Pygmy Rugger
Ok, better late than never.
3 1/2 hours to go.
6- Aguecheek - (Rysto, Kat, Fretful Porpentine, MonkeyMench, Queuing, StarvingButStrong)
4- Queuing - (brewha, Aguecheek, Pygmy Rugger, Sturmhauke)
2- Pygmy Rugger - (cowgirl, stroyteller)
1- brewha - (Lakai)
1- hocow - (Pleonast)
Also, I haven’t seen a reason posted for why hocow has been so absent today. Did anyone else see it?
Not much else I can say. I’ve made my defense.
I will state that we have to kill the Serial Killer. We’ve let him go on and on, killing indiscriminately, while we jump on everyone we believe may be mafia. We’ve been wrong for the most part, and we’re down to the wire.
We need to kill the Serial Killer or no matter what else happens, we lose, the mafia loses, and it’s one lone chucklehead out there that gets to rule the town.
hocow still hasn’t voted? Very scummy. I’m not changing my vote.
And Queuing is looking scummy to me. Initially, when the Town vs Town arguments first became apparent and Q was involved, I think he got a free pass on being Town. And he’s continued to participate at a high level, defying the lurking scum stereotype. But I think he is scum, with a perfect cover. If we don’t lynch him today, then tomorrow.
Oh, one more comment: the Town should let the Mafia take care of the Serial Killer. The Town doesn’t have the luxury anymore, the game is too close.
I feel terrible about the lack of attention I’ve been paying this game, but I have lots of time today (my sinuses are clear, my dog has healed, my job has returned to normal). I hope nobody minds if I keep posting things I notice during my reread (where I am collecting Kat’s posts). Today is almost over but I want to get this stuff on the record in case anyone feels like thinking about it overnight. Also I want to make sure it’s posted in case my life goes nuts again.
This is interesting: Fretful Porpentine listed the Enfant Terrible bandwagon in post 632:
status added by me in bold
So in that case at least, it was almost entirely town-driven.
What can we learn from this? Well, in part, that the mafia were laughing their arses off at us, and with good reason. Also note that Fretful Porpentine and Lakai both reproduced this list to draw attention to the voters. Perhaps they were doing so innocently, and perhaps they were trying to whip up another town-filled bandwagon against another townie.
MonkeyMensch was the first to point out that Menocchio was the detective’s breadcrumb (post 587, shortly after daybreak) :
That’s what spurred Rysto’s “Guys, CaerieD’s death was no accident …” analysis, but MM pointed it out first. The reason this makes me suspicious of MM is because this was far from established at that point but MM is quite decisive about it, before ANY analysis or discussion of it had taken place on this board. This says to me either that he was the very first to spot the crumb and make the conclusion, or else that he slipped up and referred to a conversation he had been having all night.
Yes, I know this is a very weak attempt at a FOS. But I’m grasping at straws here. We don’t have much more than straw to go on.
nesta, known mafia, points out that Queuing didn’t jump on the **Blaster Master **bandwagon, but rather that he *started *it (post 768). This diminishes my suspicion of Queuing as it looks like nesta is feeding the bandwagon against both he and Blaster Master.
Yeah, but that analysis FoS’ed Pleonast, Master Blaster, MadTheSwine, Gadarene and chrisk, all of whom have been confirmed Town. Given that my analysis was obviously completely wrong, I don’t think that it’s likely that the Mafia picked up on CaerieD’s breadcrumb.
really? So you reckon it was just a lucky hit? I’m not so sure. I think the mafia were smart enough to see it.
It’s actually kind of sad to look over the first few days: most of the most active posters (and most common recipients of the old FOS) are dead now. That means that most of the mafia were pretty quiet in the early days. If there’s an easy way to see and compare how often people post during the various days/nights, I’d like to see it.
Which hit are you referring to as lucky? CaerieD was hit by **Blaster Master ** in error, if I recall correctly.
So you think scum wouldn’t vote for each other, “in the hopes that it will demonstrate their innocence”? :dubious:
er, no, how did you get that from what I posted?
Nesta (mafia) made sure to point out that Queuing (unknown) STARTED the bandwagon (against a known citizen); my concern is not that he is voting for Queuing but that he is trying to throw suspicion on him.
I was referring to the mafia hitting CaerieD. Do we know otherwise? if so I missed it and apologize for being misleading; can you point me to the post where it was established?
oh, also, can someone please clarify for me:
what happens this afternoon? Does the countdown begin or does the day end?
If the latter, I will post my (as yet incomplete) analysis of Kat in case I don’t make it through the night.
Day ends in a little over 2 hours