Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
3721

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)
To further dimiss Fretful’s 4 mafia theory, here’s how the voting ended. If anyone that voted for Pygmy Rugger were mafia, their switch would drop PR count to three. So, the 4 mafia are then free to vote for Lakia, myself, or SBS, give one of us 4 votes and win the game.

That didn’t happen, so I once again say that everyone that voted for PR is town. So, since we know that Pleonast was town, the only way that there were 4 mafia is if Pygmy Rugger, Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, and myself were the mafia.

Fretful, do you want to rethink a theory that implicates you as mafia?

(on preview) Queuing, you are correct, and that’s what this post explains. The mafia couldn’t manufactuer a lynch on their own. They would have to join a townsperson in voting for another townsperson. So if Fretful were town and I were town, then the four mafia would join Fretful and string me up. The same if Lakai and SBS were town. But, since we know that Pleonast was town, that means that the at least one of the 4 voters would have to come from Pymgy Rugger’s voters, which would have worked out even better for the mafia since it would have dropped his count down to 3.

3722

No. But I was responding to storyteller’s post in which he asked whether there was any way you and Lakai could BOTH be Mafia, and if you both are, another lynch was not within easy reach. Even if you’d all piled onto Lakai’s suggestion of StarvingButStrong, you’d still be one vote short of a lynch, and it would be obvious to the remaining townies that all of you were in cahoots.

For what it’s worth, I’m not sure I buy this theory at all myself, but I think we need to question all of our assumptions at this point, and the idea that there are exactly two Mafia left is a BIG assumption.

3723

[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
No. But I was responding to storyteller’s post in which he asked whether there was any way you and Lakai could BOTH be Mafia, and if you both are, another lynch was not within easy reach. Even if you’d all piled onto Lakai’s suggestion of StarvingButStrong, you’d still be one vote short of a lynch, and it would be obvious to the remaining townies that all of you were in cahoots.

For what it’s worth, I’m not sure I buy this theory at all myself, but I think we need to question all of our assumptions at this point, and the idea that there are exactly two Mafia left is a BIG assumption.
[/QUOTE]

Assuming that I am mafia, the only way that we’d be short a vote is if no one that was voting for PR voted for SBS. That would leave 4 for SBS, 4 for PR and one for Lakai. But that would also mean that you, Fretful Porpentine, are mafia. Because if anyone from PR voters switched to SBS, that would leave PR with 3 and it would be an easy lynch for the mob.
Esentially, you are saying that if both Lakai and I are mafia, then you are mafia too.

3724

[QUOTE=brewha]
Assuming that I am mafia, the only way that we’d be short a vote is if no one that was voting for PR voted for SBS. That would leave 4 for SBS, 4 for PR and one for Lakai. But that would also mean that you, Fretful Porpentine, are mafia. Because if anyone from PR voters switched to SBS, that would leave PR with 3 and it would be an easy lynch for the mob.
Esentially, you are saying that if both Lakai and I are mafia, then you are mafia too.
[/QUOTE]

No, that’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying that I think you and Lakai COULD both be Mafia and that you would be playing brilliantly if you were; that it’s worth the sacrifice of one player to the Mafia if another can be set up as a trusted townie*; and that it is at least remotely possible that there are three Mafia left alive. (I am making no definite assumptions about the number of surviving Mafia at all, although I think you make some good points in refutation of this part of the argument. I’m simply saying there ARE no safe assumptions.)

  • If brewha and Lakai didn’t make this particular play, it wouldn’t surprise me greatly if Aguecheek and Queuing did, or storyteller0901 and Pygmy Rugger. Absolutely nobody except myself is on my trust list right now.
3725

I just went back and re read the day’s events without the assumption that Lakai and Fretful are the only possibilities of scum. I’ve decided that it is true, my theory could have some holes in it.

If Lakai and Fretful are not the last two remaining scum, then I give up because I have no idea who to vote for besides them. Can I just move? Maybe I can find a nice slumhouse in downtown Chicago where the crime rate isn’t quite so high.

3726

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]

Option A: Lynch someone from the pair of Lakai and brewha. This is the high risk option.

<snip>

Option B: Lynch someone from the pair of Fretful and Kat

<snip>

Thoughts?
[/QUOTE]

I totally agree with your assumptions. And I understand your pairing & the odds and so forth.

It seems to me the real problem is the B/L situation – I honestly don’t know what to think about Brewha. Yes, Queuing always says he’s too talkative/brash/aggressive to be Mafia…but what if Brewha simply is naturally talkative, brash, and aggressive as a person? Perhaps he simply isn’t able to adopt a quiet/UTR sort of behavior?

OTOH, it’s not like I have plentiful evidence for Lakai being town.

I see it as a coin flip situation on that pair for which is the Mafia – and then there’s the possibility that neither one is. (I just can’t buy that both of them might be.)

Since we don’t have that ‘both are town’ possibility, I vote we should turn our attention first to Fretful & Kat.

In fact, I vote we should kill BOTH of them, either one today, the other tomorrow, regardless of the verdict on today’s kill.

If both of them are mafia, we win!

At worst, we will definitely kill one Mafia and use up our last ‘free’ townie lynch. Which means we’ll be back to picking between Brewha and Lakia, winning or losing on that lynch.

Which is the same choice we have now, but this way we have the hope that something said during the next two days (or some newly dug up evidence from past posts) will let us make the choice between Lakai and Brewha on better than a coin flip basis.
So, that’s my vote. I don’t have a strong opinion on which of Fretful or Kat to go after first, if you or Queuing do, I’ll go along.

3727

Mashing some short replies together, since I’m posting way too much lately:

[QUOTE=brewha]
I’m entirely on board with this as long as if you lynch me tomorrow, you lynch Lakai the following day. We still get one town lynch, so if my theory is correct, the town still wins.
[/QUOTE]

See, the problem with this is what if you are BOTH town? We’ve had some pretty memorable fights between townies, haven’t we?

If you are town, you are basically asking the rest of us to believe you are right in your idea that Lakai is Mafia. I don’t meant this to be offensive, but you’ve been wrong before you know. (I suspect all of us have voted for a townie lynch at least once in the game.) So if you are wrong about Lakai, then that’s the end of the game, Mafia win.

At the moment, I’m not willing to bet the entire game on your opinion of Lakai.

Well, I did, but I didn’t spot anything even slightly interesting. Full disclosure: I didn’t reread any of Day 2. ::shudder::

I noticed that Pygmy voted for other Mafia twice, for FlyingCowOfDoom on Day 3 and Aguecheek on Day 5. Both cases when his ‘target’ was in no real danger. However the only vote Pygmy cast for any of the seven living was for Queuing, so no joy there.

[QUOTE=Queuing]

My basic reason for going after fretful over Lakai, brewha or Kat is due to the votes for PR. Kat voted early for PR, and left the vote there. The previous few days both Storyteller and myself had voted for PR. This leads me to think that if scum was going to try to vote for scum they would have voted for someone who didn’t already have 2 townies on his tail. Not saying this is a for sure thing by any means, but its a check in her favour in my mind.

[/QUOTE]

Okay, I can see that reasoning.

::giggle:: I sort of feel the same way.

Actually, that ties into a reason I was leaning towards Kat as mafia: she’s doing a good job of keeping her mouth shut. But, of course, Under The Radar is a strategy that could be used by either town or mafia.

[QUOTE=brewha]
Sure, it doesn’t sound crazy when you say it.

I 100% agree. That’s why I was going crazy yesterday, because people apparently didn’t understand that.
[/QUOTE]

The difference, though, is that you said “We all have to vote together AND it has to be for the guy I WANT IT TO BE.” Because, apparently, you weren’t willing to consider that Pygmy might be Mafia, too, even though you HAD to know there was more than one left in the game.

As in, once again you never seem to even entertain the idea that YOU MIGHT BE WRONG. Despite the fact that you already have been on multiple occasions.

Standing up and screaming “I am right! I am right! Everyone else must change their opinions just because I say so!” is not a very persuasive argument. Pretty much the opposite, in fact.

[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
I don’t know. If they’re both Mafia, they’ve played these last few days brilliantly – but it’s fair to say that the Mafia has been playing brilliantly all along, and deliberately distancing themselves from one another so that they can gain the town’s trust is very likely the winning strategy at this point. I’d also like to float the possibility that there are actually three of them left, and Pygmy Rugger’s “slip” was actually a calculated piece of disinformation; I think it was obvious after we lynched hocow that Pygmy Rugger was next in line no matter what, and plausible that they have planned this overnight.

[/QUOTE]

Wow. It’s an amazing theory. But…I just can’t believe that people capable of planning and flawlessly carrying out something like that are spending their time playing this game. They ought to out there taking over the world. :smiley:

I guess what I mean is, if the Mafia are THAT good, they’re going to win. And they’ll deserve it, IMHO.

3728

The concensus seem to be that the more I talk to more I look like a loon. So I’ll keep this short. Everytime I feel that I’m on to something, Queuing seems to be the first to shoot it down. He really hated the idea of voting for Pleonast’s list. He really seems to be against lynching Lakai. I haven’t trusted him most of the game and i see no reason to start now.

I’m going with my original plan, I’m following Pleonast. His top three were Pygmy Rugger, Lakai and Queuing. He was right on Pygmy Rugger and I believe he is right on Lakai.

Vote Lakai

3729

I, too, am starting to feel like they deserve it, but that doesn’t mean I won’t go down fighting :slight_smile:

3730

SBS, I don’t really get why you think we should kill both Kat and Fretful regardless of the outcome. Is it just because you (like me) are getting more and more confused in regards to brewha? And have no strong reading on Lakai either way and there is that nasty cop reading stewing in the back of your mind? So at the very least this buys another day?

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.

So if I am reading this correctly, SBS you want to go for Kat and I want to go for Fretful. I guess good ol’ storyteller should weigh in now :slight_smile:

3731

[QUOTE=Queuing]
SBS, I don’t really get why you think we should kill both Kat and Fretful regardless of the outcome. Is it just because you (like me) are getting more and more confused in regards to brewha? And have no strong reading on Lakai either way and there is that nasty cop reading stewing in the back of your mind? So at the very least this buys another day?

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.

So if I am reading this correctly, SBS you want to go for Kat and I want to go for Fretful. I guess good ol’ storyteller should weigh in now :slight_smile:
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I’m composing in another window… gimme a sec. Good god, this game’s going to get me fired.

3732

Honest I know the difference between “your” and “you’re”. I hate when people do that, and yet there it is, staring at me, mocking me.

3733

[QUOTE=StarvingButStrong]

At worst, we will definitely kill one Mafia and use up our last ‘free’ townie lynch. Which means we’ll be back to picking between Brewha and Lakia, winning or losing on that lynch.

Which is the same choice we have now, but this way we have the hope that something said during the next two days (or some newly dug up evidence from past posts) will let us make the choice between Lakai and Brewha on better than a coin flip basis.

[/QUOTE]

But here’s the problem. If we agree right now to lynch Fretful and then Kat, or vice versa, no matter the outcome, then unless they are both Mafia we will arrive two days hence with the same problem we have right now - brewha? Or Lakai? And if we settle on a course of action that firmly, we’re not going to get any new information; why should anyone say anything at all, if our lynch target is set in advance?

I keep writing and deleting everything, because I can’t come up with any plan that makes any sense. If we lynch Fretful today, and she is town, it is very, very likely that Kat is Mafia, and vice versa. But if that’s not the case, and brewha and Lakai are both Mafia - or if, deity of your choice forbid - I am wrong about Queuing or StarvingbutStrong - that approach dooms us.

We still have time to make this decision, right? Until Friday, I think? Given that this is likely the most important Day of the game so far (to be matched only by the next one or two), I think we should hold off on a final decision. Let’s keep talking, and see if anything might pop up that could lead us to a more logical lynch.

3734

[QUOTE=Queuing]

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.

[/QUOTE]

Man, that sucks. Just when you get all ready to personally insult me you get thwarted by a homonymn. I’ve said it before, as long as people agree with you, you’re all friendly and nice. Once they disagree, you get all pissy and whiny.

The only person I trust is Pleonast. I’m following his list. I encourage other town to do the same.

I’ll come back and check on this tomorrow. Good day, sirs.

3735

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]

We still have time to make this decision, right? Until Friday, I think?
[/QUOTE]

Yup, Friday 12:45 Pacific. Just shy of 48 hours from now.

3736

Oh yes we have time. Personally I would like to hear from Kat as well. Fretful has come in and done his defence. I wouldn’t mind hearing one from all the others as well.

I agree with you storyteller, and see no benefit to already deciding what tomorrows lynch would be. Nor do I get why SBS would want them both dead.

Our biggest worry seems to be that one of the pairs is both scum. Perhaps we should give some thought to which pair is more likely to be scum together. Then lynch one from that pair?

3737

[QUOTE=brewha]
Man, that sucks. Just when you get all ready to personally insult me you get thwarted by a homonymn. I’ve said it before, as long as people agree with you, you’re all friendly and nice. Once they disagree, you get all pissy and whiny.

The only person I trust is Pleonast. I’m following his list. I encourage other town to do the same.

I’ll come back and check on this tomorrow. Good day, sirs.
[/QUOTE]

I have to go home now, myself, and have a choreography meeting tonight, and then there will be Lost. This means that unless I manage to sneak in a post between the one and the other, I’ll be away for a couple of hours and possibly until tomorrow morning.

I resolve to continue thinking about things. For what it’s worth, if the deadline were in five minutes I would at this moment vote for brewha. The wild fluctuation of trust / mistrust, the half-baked accusations and whatnot… they confuse things, make it hard to have a productive discussion. His behavior is so suspicious as to pass through unsuspicious all the way back into suspcious, if that sentence makes sense.

3738

You know, the more I reread the last couple of pages, the more confused I get.

My current suspicion list is (most to least):
brewha
Lakai/Fretful Porpentine
StarvingButStrong
storyteller
Queuing
me

I’d really rather vote for brewha, but that’s pretty worthless if no one else is going to vote for him. If I throw out the Town read on Lakai like brewha wants me to do, I’m more suspicious of Lakai than I am of Fretful, based on posting history. If I don’t throw out the Town read, I’m more suspicious of Fretful.

If storyteller is right on his pair theory, then I am of course more suspicious of Fretful than of myself, and a bit more suspicious of brewha than Lakai.

I don’t know what kind of defense you want to see from me, because I’ve not really seen any reasoning given for suspicions against me, except for:
From SBS: Leaning Mafia:
Kat (because I like the idea of at least one mafia voting for PR, and I think the others are town.)
Um, okay. I guess I should’ve switched to brewha, then? Except that then everyone else would be suspicious of me.
From SBS: Actually, that ties into a reason I was leaning towards Kat as mafia: she’s doing a good job of keeping her mouth shut.
That’s a valid reason for suspicion, I’ll give ya that. Except that I’m not the lowest posting person in the thread. I’ve got more posts than SBS, storyteller, Lakai and Fretful Porpentine (whether any of them are actually useful posts, I couldn’t tell you). I’ve slowed down a bit lately, for 2 reasons: it’s taking me longer than before to go through who’s said what (which I bet you guys understand) and because some of my previously-devoted-to-Internet time has been taken over by planning-for-vacation time (I mentioned that back at the beginning of this thread, it’s less than 2 weeks away!).
In 3568, Queuing says: My gut is also finding Kat suspicious.
Fair enough, I’ve voted on gut feeling myself. But there’s not much that can be done to argue against your gut (unless giving it a beer works). Post something for me to refute and I’ll give it a shot.

Or I could just role claim…
I am…

the Vigilante Detective.
That’s right. I’m Batman.

For now, I’m gonna vote brewha.

3739

Thought I would throw a vote count at y’all before I went home for the day:

2- brewha - (Lakai, Kat)
1- Fretful Porpentine - (Queuing)
1- Lakai - (brewha)
May not look like much, but with only 7 of you left that is over half the votes in town accounted for.

3740

So, I’m winning in votes. I’m at the point where I’m done trying to push the obvious on you guys. I’m leaving my vote on Lakai. If he doesn’t get lynched, and I live through the night, I’m going to vote for him again tomorrow.

Ever hear of Occam’s Razor? By far the simplest explanation of why mafia got lynched despite the town being split is that Lakai, the person with the next highest vote count, was mafia as well. Sure we can hypothesize on situations where if someone changed votes then someone else would change and then that would cause someone else to change… blah blah blah. There is a chance that all the planets aligned and Lakai isn’t mafia. But, I believe that the simplest explanation is the correct one.

The truth of the matter is that we were lucky, damn lucky, to have the town split between two mafia. Any other situation would have resulted in a town lynch yesterday.

If you guys really want Lakai to live another day, then vote someone else. I’m just some crazy loon trying to get a win for the town. If you really still believe that a beat cop reading on someone who could have a 50% chance of being the Godfather is gospel, than the town has been outplayed and the mafia deserve this win.