Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Richard Dawson] Good answer! Good answer!] [/Richard Dawson]

No, seriously, that makes sense. Of course, so does the idea that you are a mafia fearing the lynch tomorrow.

So, if you are town, and you believe so is Brewha…then who do you suspect? Both Fretful and Kat? One of them and ??

I’m almost convinced that Queuing, Storyteller and Brewha are town. If they are mafia, then they are way too good.

I’m not sure about you, Kat and Fretful. Since Fretful decided not to pull the trigger on brewha I think lynching Kat would be our best bet.

Vote Kat.

Did I actually just wake up at 4:36AM just to find out if I was right about brewha? Why, yes. Yes I did.

No unvote from me right now, nor any other altered decision; I am too bleary to think clearly. I’ll check back in tomorrow morning.

…but I can’t sleep. Something is weird here. Weird, weird, weird. All day yesterday people are saying that we need to make sure we vote unanimously, in order to prevent the Mafia from swapping votes around at the last minute to save someone or manipulate our voting. Then, ten minutes before brewha is to die, Lakai makes a vote swap. This happens in the middle of the night (well, the middle of the night EST, anyway), when good discussion is almost impossible.

It makes me worried. If brewha has been right all along (well, not all along, but when he proposed this particular theory), and Lakai and Fretful are the Mafia, then this all makes perfect sense. Fretful withholds her vote altogether, in the name of good sense (and with the blessing of the rest of the town). At the eleventh hour, when it is unlikely to make a huge difference, Lakai pulls his vote and moves it to someone else. The rest of us are sleeping, or thinking the Day is already over, and we check back in with insufficient time to figure out what the hell is going on, and before you know it, the brewha lynch has gone though anyway. Dead townie, but one killed without the input of either Lakai or Fretful. Now, tomorrow, they’re able to slip suspicion a little more readily.

I don’t know what to do. It’s just as possible that Lakai is town, and just disagrees with the rest of us on the value of unanimity at this point in the game. It’s still possible that brewha is Mafia - my certainty on this front was never higher than late afternoon yesterday, when he started posting that stream of mutually contradictory theories trying to save himself, while claiming he didn’t care about saving himself. This is an impossible situation and the wrong time to address it.

Fuck it. I’m voting as I’m voting. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but the last minute craziness has led us astray in the past and I’m not falling victim to that again.

I said that I would do this if there were last-minute vote switches, and I will. Vote brewha.

I think that brewha still has a pretty darn good chance of being Mafia, as of now. If nobody had switched their vote I would have been equally confident that he was town.

Can you elaborate on this theory, before the Day ends? I am still at a bit of a loss to explain the vote shifting and what it implies.

No, I’m really not trying to save myself. I feel like the town is going to lose and avoiding the lynch again today is just like the captain going down with the ship. The ship is sinking and I’ve already spent waaaaay to much time trying to patch the holes. I just wish I could’ve gotten a cool night kill instead being lynched by my fellow townspeople.

Who would be next if Lakia comes up town? Doesn’t matter. After I get lynched, if the town lynchs Lakai and he is town, the mafia wins. I don’t see a reason to speculate.

Who’s next if Lakai comes up mafia? That’s up to the town to decide. I’d have to wait until the final day to make that decision. There’s going to be two town and one mafia (assuming my death doesn’t end the game) and I wouldn’t even make a guess until I saw who the final three are.

(I’m going to work on the assumption that there is more than one Mafia member left alive – of course, it’s possible that Pygmy could have been lying and all that’s left is the Godfather, but that’s an awful lot of risk to take to spread a piece of disinformation.)

Right. The Mafia obviously do not want one of their own lynched. They may not be able to avoid it, though, since they’re outnumbered by town and they need to hide in the crowd to avoid suspicion. The best course, if one of them is clearly the town’s top choice for lynching, is to go along with the lynching – but they have every reason to want to jump off the bandwagon and spread suspicion in other directions as long as they can do so without coming under suspicion themselves.

I’m picking Lakai for potential Mafia, in this case – I think Starving and I gave him the opportunity, and he took it. (If brewha turns out to be Mafia, I’m betting the feud between him and brewha is entirely manufactured. But, as Starving pointed out, if brewha turns out to be town, Lakai’s unvote is STILL a step necessary to prevent a Mafia lynching – in this case, his own.)

I am not really sure what the heck is going on here, but this last minute switching seems very odd to me. I don’t know why SBS asked for someone to. I don’t why Lakai complied.

It is possible that Lakai and brewha are both scum. By asking for someone to unvote brewha, SBS opened the door for lakai to do so. He could say he was just complying with a request by a trusted townie. Now he is trying to shift focus onto the other pair and voting for kat. However this also seems very odd. Why kat and not fretful? I believe Fretful was the one more likely to be lynched of that pair. This belief is based on what I and brewha (at the time) said.

I don’t agree with what storyteller said about Lakai unvoting. this sentence in particular:

As it did make a difference and he had to know it made a difference. SBS had already unvoted, and I had stated that an unvote would save him. At least for 12 more hours.

I don’t think I will be changing my vote. I just don’t like all these last minute changes. Pretty much every other time (except with Suburban Plankton) a last minute change has lead to the death of a townie.

As I have stated I think there is a good chance that brewha is town, however a generally annoying, arrogant unhelpful townperson. So his death will hurt but probably won’t lose the game. We get to find out for sure either way.

Regardless I think tomorrow we go after the other pair. If we hit scum tomorrow and the game continues then we hit Lakai. That is what I think anyway currently. I reserve the right to change my mind :).

Ok, but why the hell would I vote for brewha when I could have easily voted for either you or kat before?

We should vote unanimously as a town, but not as a town along with mafia.

I got home at around 10 p.m. EST. I was all ready to lynch brewha but then I got the feeling that he was town. It makes no sense that he would continue to go after me. No sense at all. No one was believing him for days and ever since he started people started voting for him. Storyteller presented the mafia with an easy way to justify picking one out of four people. The two mafia could have easily picked one of them with out falling under suspicion. Lets say me and brewha were maifa, would it have been suspicious of us to both vote for Fretful? If brewha just said that it is worthless to get me lynched and voted along with me because he likes the idea from storyteller? Everyone would be relieved he stopped talking non-sense.

The scenarios that this town is coming up with are way out there. Brewha is so brilliant he acting all crazy as part of a strategy? With two mafia left? I know this game gives people the wildest of suspicion, but this one too far fetched. Maybe everyone is too tired to think and just want to lynch anything just about now.

The only way I could see brewha being mafia is if he is the only one left. If that were the case then acting crazy just might save him, but it would also mean we could afford to get the lynch wrong.

If we believe that brewha is town, then the pool of mafia suspects are down to Fretful, Kat and SBS (I’m not entirely convinced of her towniness). Kat looks like the more scummy out of the two, so I voted for Kat.

I just got to thinking the final day of this epic thread is gonna be a hoot. Who would thunk that it’s gonna come down to 2 town vs 1 mafia on the final day? Of course the remaining mafia (it would be great storyline wise if the Godfather were the last remaining mobster) is gonna vote town. If the two remaining town don’t trust each other we will lose.

I’m kinda glad I’m getting lynched today. I really don’t want the pressure of making that final decision. And I don’t want my “crazy” rantings muddying up the mind of my last remaining fellow townie.

Seriously, my death is the best thing for the town at this point. Hey, here’s a crazy thought, maybe the mafia know that my death is actually good for the town. I bet they want to go into the final day with the last remaining townies suspicious of each other.
unvote Lakai

Vote Me

on preview, I come across this:

Insults again? Trying to discredit me even in my final hours?

Listen to me town. You really need to take out Lakai tomorrow. It was my understanding that that was the plan. I’m only going quietly because my death means Lakai’s death.

Queuings assertion that we need to take out the other pair tomorrow is a bad bad move. Two people have tried to get the focus switched to the other pair after my death. Lakai and now Queuing. I’m beginning to get the idea that no matter which of the Kat/Fretful pair get lynched the town will lose.

If Queuing is one of the last remaining three tomorrow, the other two town really need to consider lynching him. I know I’ve been saying it all game, but seriously consider it.

Great, I get to die if brewha comes up mafia or town.

Tell me why I would vote for brewha in the first place?

I told everyone why Kat, because Fretful did not pull the trigger on brewha’s lynch. If I’m going to bet that brewha is town, I should probably carry that thought to its logical conclusion. Fretful would have speed lynched if she was mafia and brewha was town.

Town, read this line again. What’s Queuing’s motivation here? Really, why does he need to insult me yet again? I’ve done nothing to provoke it and I wasn’t casting suspicion toward him.

He needs the town to not believe me. Kat, whether you think you came to the conclusion that I was crazy on your own or not, you weren’t the first to assert it. Queuing has been working to discredit me most of the game. Here it is again.

Basically he’s saying that Brewha is a loon and a bad bad person. Let’s lynch someone other than Lakai.

It’s all BS town. Kill Lakai tomorrow. Right now, my next top priority would be to kill Queuing.

Actually, I’d rather you string up Queuing tomorrow. But, the way this game has been going, He’ll probably end up convincing the remaining town to Lynch Fretful or Kat tomorrow and the town will probably lose.

Don’t worry about responding to this. You’ll probably all not really consider this a possibility while you still don’t trust me. Wait until after I die, then go and read my rantings again.

One problem with this idea is it was basically 3 people who were going to vote as a block. 3 people who are basically trusted by the majority of the other players. By this I mean each of the 3 is trusted individually by a majority of others (you don’t trust SBS, brewha doesn’t trust me, etc). We basically stated that we would vote for whichever pair Storyteller suggested, and whom of that pair. I switched my vote from fretful to brewha for example. This could mean it would have been hard for one of those pairs to all of a sudden act together and not vote for whomever of the pair was about to get lynched.

On preview: You really are a jackass brewha. How have I been going after you the whole game? Have I not been saying I think you are town? Geez you are a sanctimonious, arrogant little man.

Please note: I did NOT ask anyone to switch votes. I simply wanted to stop the countdown clock until I had a chance to read what had been posted since that morning AND to be sure we had Storyteller’s Last Will and Testament.

Since there were still 4 votes without me, having someone else unvote temporarily to oblige me was kind.

By the time I was caught up, though, there was that interesting post by Lakai – the one where he suddenly switched his vote from Brewha. He says it was because he was suddenly convinced that Brewha was town.

I suspect it was because you had just posted that we would hang Lakai if Brewha came up town. As in, Lakai is Mafia, knows Brewha isn’t, and thus knows that lynching Brewha will simply get him (Lakai) lynched the following day. So he leaps from Brewha…and opts for Kat? The person otherwise at the bottom of every suspect list?

Why her? Well, if he accepts that the townies won’t vote for Storyteller, Queuing, or me right now, that only leaves the options of Kat and Fretful – and if Fretful is indeed the other mafia, then he has to vote for Kat.

Sleeping on this idea has only made it sound better to me. Fretful’s now casting a vote for Brewha doesn’t convince me otherwise. Yes, if were to go t hrough with the (if townie, lynch Brewha) Fretful is enabling the lynch of a Mafia…but maybe not: 1) Maybe enough doubt has been raised so that even if Brewha comes up town, we’ll go after someone else and 2) there are enough votes to lynch Brewha even without her vote, so it doesn’t make the situation worse and makes Fretful look less mafia-y.
So, now I’ve changed my mind. I’d said I would vote for whoever Storyteller picked, but that was when I didn’t suspect anyone more strongly than the other choices. Now I do.

Vote Lakai
And, yes, I realize this probably makes me look very suspicious to the rest of you. I can’t help that. I just think Lakai looks much, much worse than Brewha right now. I think even Storyteller was only a tad more inclined to suspect Brewha than Lakai. I think Queuing was 50/50 on them. Maybe what I’ve said here will sway your opinions, maybe not.

I hope I haven’t terminally screwed things up.

So, does this mean you, too, find Laka more suspicious than before?

Even if you think he’s unhelpful, a townie Brewha helps keep the mafia in the minority.

Say what??? You’ve just said you find Lakai’s actions very suspicious, and you still want to not go after him, even if Brewha turns out to be town? I find that a strange idea.
Ack, no time to even proof read.

Fingers crossed that we get a Mafia today.

First of all, chill out. We don’t any mod action toward the end of the game.

Second, I think the trusted three are trusted because they want to lynch a town. Still, I’d like to think that if I and brewha were mafia that I would not have voted for him. And that if I were mafia and brewha was town I would have pushed for the Kat and Fretful pair first.

Crap! I realized after I shut my computer off that I screwed up the color.

VOTE LAKAI

Sheesh. I’m too stupid to be a mafi!

Crap! It’s about, what, 24 minutes to the deadline? I’m not sure I can even finish typing a lengthy message before then, so moving quickly:

I have no clue what to do. It is fairly clear to me that we’re casting about aimlessly at this point. We’ve done as much as we can do with the information we have, and I’m not satisfied with any of the answers we’ve found. Lakai’s point is depressingly accurate - my presentation of options, coupled with the decision made by me, SbS, and Queuing to vote as a unit (and the subsequent decision made by the others to cast their vote along with me) - bound us up. If brewha is town, it created an easy dodge for the Mafia; they could both vote for him without suspicion - just going along with the dominant voting bloc, after all, nothing to see here. If brewha is Mafia, our decision to lynch him as a bloc of three meant that the other Mafia member had no chance to swing the vote at that point (and that even if he/she did, he/she would immediately become suspect). We’ve given ourselves no clear way to assess the remaining players regardless of what we learn about brewha.

I’m not going to play the wine-in-front-of-me game. I’m leaving my vote where it is and hoping that my instincts are right. If not, then I don’t know what the hell to do next, but it seems like I probably won’t have to worry about it anyway.

If this is my last game post, then best of luck to those who remain.

Town, I give you exhibit B.

I quoted Queuing and stated that I think his insults were out of line. He responds back with this little tyraid.

Thanks for strengthening my point, Queuing.
FTR I’m 6’5" and 225lbs. Your adjective of ‘little’ is as accuarate as the rest.

[sub]I know I know. You didn’t mean little as a description of physical size. [/sub]

Really? Jeez. Well, if we ever meet outside this game, just remember, I always attacked your arguments, not you personally. And I’m a bleeder.