Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Queuing]

Well that sucked again. Only 2 kills though. Who do you think didn’t kill?

CaerieD said this:

My mistrust of Blaster Master is one of several reasons why I decided against voting for Enfant Terrible. There’s just something a little overly gung-ho there, when there’s no particular reason to be quite that impassioned. It made me think Mafia trying to turn us against one another and so I couldn’t go with his endorsement.

in post 478

and this

Trust: Menocchio.

Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I’m somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can’t tell if he’s scum and baiting or just really sadistic.

in post 326.

She voted for Sturmhauke.

In post 388 Blaster Master said this:

fter some more re-reads, here’s another update of who is suspicious to me

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch

Thus, I would say we should lynch Enfant, the VIG should kill Queuing, and the SK should kill CaerieD.

I have a gut on a couple of the other roles too, but it’s obviously not to our benefit to air those suspicions.

For my first quick ctrl-f using the name of CaerieD thats what I found out.

Either one of these 2 people is fine by me. We lynch either Sturmhauke or Blaster Master.

Since I don’t know how much I will be able to post this weekend (and the growth of this thread), I vote to [COLOR=Blue]lynch Blaster Master[COLOR=Blue].

This is because of his SK comment.

[Queuing]

Crap, stupid colour coding.

Lynch Blaster Master

[Smitty]

I have updated my spreadsheet with a change to the history section. Each vote now contains the post number where the vote was made so that you can easily find it. I think we need to take a good, hard look at who made bandwagon votes on Enfant Terrible - that is, votes with no reasoning behind them. These are far more likely to be scum pushing for a lynch.

[Rysto]

@Queuing

Well that sucked again. Only 2 kills though. Who do you think didn’t kill?

Well, only the Mafia and the Serial Killer can choose not to kill someone. It makes no sense for the Mafia not to kill anyone. The way I see it, either the Serial Killer didn’t want to make things worse for the Town by killing a random person, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense either.

I think it’s most likely that the Doctor saved someone’s life. This is why I’m very against them protecting themselves.

[Rysto]

Actually, another possibility is that a Miller targeted the SK, the Vig or a Mafioso.

[ArizonaTeach]

Well, **BlasterMaster ** was on my list since his “I have ideas about who is what” post, and I wish I had listened to **CaerieD ** more then. (Pounds my heart twice, kisses two fingers and raises them towards the sky.) If she was killed by the mafia I suspect it’s for that exact reason. I can’t imagine why the mafia would want to kill cowgirl, though, but I haven’t gone back to look at her posts. (Umm…some equally ridiculous show of support for another fallen friend)

However, a lot of people had you on their list, Queuing, so before I stand with you, I’m going to go back and look at what they say.

[MonkeyMensch]

I haven’t read back over the thread yet. After all what’s Friday night for if you’re not dating?

But CaerieD had a chance to investigate and live just one night. And she names only Menocchio as being trusted. I think that’s a bread crumb if I’ve ever seen one.

[Menocchio]

Well, crud.

Of course, I would support the theory that Caerie cleared me on her one night of investigation. Besides being the truth, it seems likely that she would hit a townie swinging blind on night 1. I’d say that’s more important than her suspicions.

As for me, I’m sticking with voting for Queuing unless something else shakes out.

[Rysto]

Guys, CaerieD’s death was no accident. MonkeyMensch just put me on to this.

At some point in the first game’s commentary thread, a Werewolf said something to the effect of, “If we had just been able to kill a power role early, the game would have been very different.” I think that the Mafia took this to heart. chrisk started it here.

@chrisk

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I’m proposing an Open Detection System

Hypothetically, for the purpose of this post, I’m claiming that I’m a cop of some sort. Last night, I investigated Enfant Terrible and found him to be vanilla citizen.

The preceding assertion is not valid in any way, shape, or form, unless I’m a cop of some description. In addition, if I’m a beat cop, my investigations are unreliable, and all investigations are subject to specific distortion. (IE, even if I’m the detective and got that result from ET, he might still be the godfather.)

All other players are encouraged to join in with the ODS and post hypothetical investigation results. I’m not sure how this will end up, but I thought it was worth a try to start. If you don’t want me to continue doing this on successive days, yell at me to stop.

I was against the idea from the start, because I was afraid it would reveal Cops instead of helping the town. Here’s what I said:

@Rysto

'm not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

Now, take a look at what chrisk said when StarvingButStrong initially proposed the idea:

@chrisk

I wondered about a scheme like this myself.

The net effect would be that as reliable information comes in, the ‘accurate Seer list’ would shrink, however to groups with special information, such as masons and werewolves, it would be shrinking faster, as anyone who claims to have investigated one of their number and publishes an inaccurate result would probably eliminate themselves.

Might mean that the werewolves, then, can ID the real seer early, and kill him/her off before the GA knows that they’re the real deal.

And then, there’d be the headache of wondering if the true seer might have published an investigation falsely in order to not draw attention to themselves too soon.

He knew. He knew that this would reveal the Seer to the Werewolves, and then he goes and proposes it in this thread. I very nearly called him on it on the spot, but decided to hold off and watch him instead. That was a gigantic mistake, because next Pleonast comes up with this idea:

@Pleonast

Since Beat Cops don’t get reliable information, an incorrect claim doesn’t necessary reveal the false claimer as an ordinary Citizen. Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia. But I don’t like the idea anyway: the Mafia are better placed to make use of the information by combining it with what they already know.

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

If I turn up in the river with extra-heavy boots, you can easily look at my lists (I’ll publish every day) and make your own inferences. The key is that I don’t reveal role information, which would help the Mafia target, but still give enough for the survivors to make better-informed lynchings.

This will work best if every Citizen posts their lists.(bolding mine)

Damn me for a fool; I didn’t say anything against this. I should have. I was uncomfortable about it; I didn’t see how it was much different from StarvingButStrong’s original ODS. And, being the idiot that I was, I didn’t realize that this was part of a concerted effort on the part of the Mafia to force the Cops to reveal themselves.

Gadarene, Blaster Master and MadTheSwine were the first to endorse the idea.

Then, the Mafia hit pay dirt. CaerieD, the late Detective, posted that she trusted Menocchio, and no one else. It seemingly came out of nowhere. MadTheSwine was all over it, and demanded to know why she trusted him. She gave a lame justification about “agreeing with his thinking to this point”(Menocchio’s only post of any substance at that point was to agree with Queuing’s vote on sturmhauke). To the Mafia, this must have screamed “I am a Cop”.

Similarly, we have this post from Blaster Master. Winston Smith said that he trusts storyteller0910, and distrusts Blaster Master. Blaster Master demands to know his reasoning – fishing for more Cops, do you think?

Now, to be fair, MadTheSwine was the first to question chrisk’s original suggestion. I don’t know why. Perhaps they were trying the old “suggest something completely unreasonable, and when it’s rejected, give a counter-offer that’s also unreasonable but seems reasonable in comparison with the original offer”. Perhaps he’s an innocent victim. At one point, Blaster Master demands that MadTheSwine explain the reasoning for his trust/mistrust list. But maybe the Mafia were trying to establish the thought that all trust/mistrust lists must be justified. I don’t know. All I know is that this system directly led to the death of our Detective.

I want to vote for chrisk

[storyteller0910]

Logging on briefly from the bowels of New Jersey to say:

<Sam Beckett>

Oh, boy.

</Sam Beckett>

I’m visiting my in-laws from tonight until very late tomorrow night, so I won’t be chiming in with any sort of in-depth analysis until then, but I did want to chime in and say that I think it would be very, very wise to avoid creating any kind of bandwagon here today. We have to find Mafia today, and the best way to do that is to make sure that we’re thorough in our discussions.

I’m also very much against lynching sturmhauke. I’m just not seeing it. CaerieD did vote for him, but the vague impression I got was not that she was pushing on him in particular (as she would have been if she was trying to leave breadcrumbs). Other than that, the only reason for suspecting sturmhauke is that he played before and he’s alive now. I continue to think that somewhere among those agitating for sturmhauke’s lynching we will find scum.

Of course, I also was suspicious of Enfant Terrible, so my gut is maybe not as reliable as I might have hoped coming in.

[Rysto]

Oh yeah, and chrisk was the only person to come out against the cool-off period after 10 votes is reached. Why is that? Seems very suspicious to me.

[Suburban_Plankton]

Crap.

Crap, crap, CRAP!
CaerieD, cowgirl, we shall avenge you!
(or we’ll all wind up wearing cement galoshes, and I’m not betting a lot on our chances right at the moment)

I’ve just now gotten a chance to look through the last 10 hours or so of posts, so I don’t have much to say at this point. I’m going to spend the next few hours trying to find something in yesterday’s posts that might help stop the bleeding before it’s too late.

@Rysto

Actually, another possibility is that a Miller targeted the SK, the Vig or a Mafioso.

One other possibility is that two of the three “killer factions” targeted the same person. I’m not sure if it makes any difference or not at this point.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Dammit! We’re kinda getting our asses kicked, aren’t we?

As I had suspected, chrisk is still alive. After reading Rysto’s post (#589) it’s pretty clear to me what’s going on. CaerieD made a very fatal mistake by claiming to trust only Menocchio. I’m not sure who his cohorts are at this point, but I’m convinced that chrisk is scum. Let’s string him up!

Vote chrisk.

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don’t trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

–FCOD

[Rysto]

FlyingCow, I really don’t think that these trust lists are a good idea. It gives away too much information about who could be a Cop.

[Kat]

Rysto’s got a point, there. In the original Werewolf thread, someone (damn, do I want to go look and see?) said that a shortened day is more beneficial to the wolves than the town.

My only reservation is that MadTheSwine voted for chrisk. Of course, it could have been just to throw off suspicion if one or the other was targeted.

Since I didn’t get to vote last time due to the timing, I’m going to paranoid-ly (is that a word) get an early vote in and vote for chrisk.

You know, I would get this search done faster if I wasn’t trying to cook dinner and post and search all at the same time…

Ha! Found it! It was…hmm…it was MadTheSwine. Does that mean it’s not true then? It still makes sense that it does benefit the wolves/Mafia, looking at what happened to Enfant Terrible.

[Kat]

That was in response to post 591, which was the last post when I started typing mine. It took me a while to find the post about short days being bad in the original thread.

[chrisk]

Okay, Rysto, I’m not sure if I can disagree with the substance of your contention that my foolbrained scheme proposal led to losing our Detective, but that was not my intention.

I can only say in my defense that I was punch-drunk on the excitement of Day 1 and wanting to start off some interesting chatter that didn’t directly involve finger-pointing.

And yes, I posted that critique of the scheme that you quoted, but that was just wondering about the downsides. That doesn’t mean that I was intentionally suggesting something that I knew would be to the detriment of the town… just that I’d thought about the possible consequences. (I probably wasn’t keeping them as strongly in mind as I should have…)

When it came to the cooling down period… I guess it came down as ‘bitten then shy’. I felt bad over having blurted out a foolish scheme so quickly, so I was hesitating before chiming in on suggesting a rule change. Trying to show some caution. Oh well.

I have some catchup to do before I post a vote or anything. Are we still doing trust and distrust lists, or is that out the window now too? I may do one of my own anyway.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

@Rysto

FlyingCow, I really don’t think that these trust lists are a good idea. It gives away too much information about who could be a Cop.

I agree with you that the lists can give away too much information, but only if someone repeats CaerieD’s mistake of putting just one name on the list. I don’t actually trust anyone at this point, I just have less suspicion of some people…especially Menocchio. I think we can be pretty sure he’s not in the Mafia at this point.

–FCOD

[Queuing]

Well I am at my GF’s house, and she is cooking me dinner (what a great girl!) leaving me time to read what has been posted since I last posted.

It is very true that I have been on a lot of mistrust lists, in fact here is the list of them all (from day 1):

Chrisk:

T: enfant terrible
DT:

Pleonast

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

Pleonast
trust: storyteller0910, Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.
Blaster Master

Trust: MadTheSwine, Rysto, chrisk (until he points out someone other than a vanilla townie, then we’ll see), Lakai
Mistrust: Autolycus, Queuing, CaerieD, MonkeyMensch
Blaster Master

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch
MadTheSwine

Trust: Rysto
Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn’t killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)

CaerieD
Trust: Menocchio.
Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I’m somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can’t tell if he’s scum and baiting or just really sadistic.

Queuing
Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk
Don’t Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

Gadarene
Trust: Pleonast, MonkeyMensch, Rysto, Blaster Master, storyteller0910
Mistrust: chrisk, sturmhauke, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

Lakai
Trust - Blaster Master, Menocchio, Rysto, Storyteller0910
Distrust - Enfant Terrible, Queuing, chrisk and MadTheSwine.

pimaspinner
Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto
Don’t Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, FlyingCowOfDoom

pimaspinner
Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest
Don’t Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom

zuma
Trust: Master Blaster, Rysto, Lakai
Distrust: Queuing, Enfant Terrible, Autoclyse

glee
trust : Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Flying Cow of Doom, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, MonkeyMensch, Pleonast, Rysto and Storyteller0910
I don’t trust: Autolycus, Smitty and Winston Smith

Smitty
DT: Enfant Terrible, Autolycus, glee

Fretful Porpentine
Trust: myself, Rysto (with reservations), glee (with reservations)
Distrust: Enfant Terrible, Menoccio, Queuing, Aguecheek, Fern Forest

FlyingCowOfDoom

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek

storyteller0910

I trust:
sturmhauke: The big push to lynch him based on fairly vague reasoning makes me think that he is definitely town, and that somewhere among those who have voted for him there might be a Mafioso trying to get us to eliminate one of our stronger assets without wasting a night kill.

Rysto: For the spreadsheet, and also for the way he has approached the game so far from an analysis standpoint.

chrisk: I don’t see his change in strategies to be a bad thing; I read it as someone who presented what he thought would be a pro-town idea, and then when given arguments against it dropped it. Sticking too closely to a strategy that the town as a whole thinks won’t work seems like a bad play.

I don’t trust:

Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing: Because they are the voters for sturmhauke. I definitely don’t think all of them are Mafia, but I think one of them might be.

Autolycus is hard to figure. The thing is, he’s essentially doing exactly what I’ve accused Enfant Terrible of doing: he’s refusing to engage in the game, making a bunch of content-free posts to satisfy the requirement that he participate but never contributing anything that might help his ostensible team win the game. This is exactly how I’d expect Mafia to behave. Gadarene is saying that we’ll be able to tell if he’s running a double bluff, but I can’t see how we’d do that if he never posts any actual content at all. But I’d hate to waste a perfectly good lynch on someone who’s just trying to mess around with us, and…

StarvingButStrong

Slightly trust: Fern Forest, Master Blaster
Slightly distrust: Queueing, MadtheSwine (and nearly everybody else.)
Mostly distrust: Autolycus.

Winston Smith

Trust: Autolycus, storyteller0910, Rysto
Distrust: MadTheSwine, Enfant Terrible, Blaster Master

Menocchio
Distrust:Queuing, Sturmhauke, Madtheswine, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

I made it on 10 of these lists.

The reason stated, by those who gave them, is my feelings on NOT lynching Enfant Terrible. I was right here. The other reason was because of my supposed “fishing” for experience players. I have explained why I asked about this, and I was wrong. The 3rd reason given was “I was to defensive”. This came about after being asked multiple times by people to explain myself. I think my main problem is I talk to much. Well that isn’t the first time I have been accused of that, and it probably won’t be the last.

Thats about it, and I think this will be my last time attempting to defend myself (unless the mob comes closer).

I must say Rysto that is a hell of a post, great analysis. However, to avoid bandwagoning I do not change my vote as of yet, and still want to lynch Master Blaster

[Kat]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

I agree with you that the lists can give away too much information, but only if someone repeats CaerieD’s mistake of putting just one name on the list. I don’t actually trust anyone at this point, I just have less suspicion of some people…especially Menocchio. I think we can be pretty sure he’s not in the Mafia at this point.

–FCOD

Well, unless Menocchio beat the incredible odds of being randomly assigned as the Godfather after playing as the alpha wolf. :eek:

(Just kidding, Menocchio. I doubt that happened.)