Upon consideration, I’m going to unvote FlyingCowOfDoom, since I was playing a hunch that doesn’t seem to have all that much evidence behind it. I cast my vote for Pleonast instead, admittedly also on a hunch, but I do find the wildly shifting trust-lists suspicious.
I’m going to be out of town with only sporadic Internet access over the next few days, by the way; I’ll try to check in on this thread when I can, but I don’t know how often that will be, so don’t be surprised if it takes me a while to react to new developments.
Blaster still getting blasted, not seen much from Pleonast , and now chrisk has abandoned ship for whatever reason.
I will tentatively accept the idea of Menocchio as the breadcrumb from our departed Detective, although we have no real way of knowing if that’s true or not without any insight into how CaerieD organized her list. It might have been a simple mistake, it might not. If I recall correctly, she and chrisk were the only people to place a single person on their trusted list (Enfant Terrible being chrisk’s choice, and later found to be innocent the hard way).
Of course, we’ve seen the trouble that the lists have caused from Blaster Master and a bit from Pleonast.
As the day needs to be long, I will not vote for either of those two so that we are that much further from a sudden bandwagon lynching.
But so that I actually have a vote this time around, I will vote Queueing .
I will admit to being conflicted on the issue, but he has a thing for going after Menocchio the Breadcrumb , and has been a staunch defender of the late chrisk. He did propose that we strike Enfant Terrible from the lynch list, but that does not necessarily mean anything. Could have been cover. Yet, could be misguided trust that turned out correct. Several people have had inaccurate gut feelings so far. But I trust that we will have plenty of time for defenses to be given, and as the vote is now likely split very heavily, a swift lynching is much harder. Unless the replacement player messes up severely. I pity the poor soul who has to actually go back and read all 1.8 million posts with an eye towards getting a feel for each player.
I was completely sure that chrisk was scum, but his caving seems more consistent with a townie that believes he has completely screwed over his town than with scum. I kinda felt the same way when I was lynched last game.
I’m suspicious of those casting doubts on CaerieD’s breadcrumb. The people she doubted were favorites for scum yesterday, it’s more likely that she’d hit town on her first day swinging blindly, and that she’d pick last game’s scum to investigate first. Also, I was singled out as trsutworthy, when really I hadn’t done all that much yet. In fact, I was agreeing with Queuing. Why would I make the cut and not Queuing unless she investigated me?
Procrastination… much more fun than working on my term projects and/or work. Either of which is what I’m supposed to be doing.
As has been said, posting a lot can a detriment to me because it looks like I’m potentially either covering myself up or, if I were lying, I would eventually confuse my lies. That said, being the most post-happy of us in this thread, if I were scum, then I should have the most tells of anyone else, and yet the best reasoning anyone has come up with to vote to lynch me is that CaerieD didn’t trust me, despite that pretty much everyone who hasn’t voted to lynch me agrees her breadcrumb was most likely a trust vote in favor of Menocchio and not a distrust vote for me or Autolycus.
Here’s what I see as far as suspicious behavior from those who voted for me:
Gadarene, yesterday jumped from the Autolycus bandwagon to the Enfant Terrible bandwagon without reason and today is on a virtually indefensible bandwagon on me, who was one of the more trusted citizens yesterday.
Queuing, yesterday was probably the most distrusted individual, and was second on my list as far as “most likely scum”, and has somehow largely slipped under the radar today with a little bit of sweet talking. He jumps on the bandwagon to lynch me for the same dubious reasons as Gadarene.
pimaspinner, under my radar yesterday, but jumps on the bandwagon to lynch me as well for dubious reasons. Appears to backpedal, and when I confronted, backed down.
hocow, for the reasons I stated in an earlier post, so I won’t bother to repeat myself, looks to be the SK to me and is jumping on this bandwagon because she REALLY thinks I’m the VIG.
Of these 4 votes against me, I am almost certain that Gadarene and **Queuing ** are both scum and they’re either bothered by the analysis I gave yesterday, or reached a similar conclusion to hocow and think I’m a power role.
But you didn’t screw over the town last game; you screwed over the wolves.
Seriously, it looks to me like chrisk was a well intentioned townie with a well intentioned idea that backfired. I won’t read anything into why he’s leaving, simply because we don’t have enough information, and I think it’s unfair to the player who will replace him if we assume anything about that. If chrisk was lying, the replacement will have a VERY difficult time reading back and keeping those lies consistent; so, if anything, I think **chrisk ** leaving is ultimately positive for the town because it will either validate the things he’s said, or the lies will stick out like a sore thumb.
You led the lynch Enfant Terrible bandwagon.
You supported Pleonast’s trusts list from the beginning. Those lists led directly to the loss of our Detective.
You publicly interrogated people about their trust lists, which looks very much like Cop-hunting.
You publicly called for the death of CaerieD for no reason at all, after saying that you had a bead on several power roles.
On chrisk, perhaps he’s distraught about inadvertently exposing or Detective, or perhaps he’s distraught over inadvertently exposing several of his fellow Mafioso?
Just a note, but Queuing didn’t jump on the bandwagon for you. He was the first vote, and the most vocal early in the day before he took his leave for a while. He started the bandwagon.
I thought about pointing the FOS at Gadarene, but I’ve been operating under the assumption that chrisk is/was scum, and chrisk voted for Gadarene today in post 648. Even with the early bandwagon against chrisk I don’t think it’s likely he would vote for a fellow scum like that. Possible, but not likely.
Now, if chrisk isn’t scum, then Gadarene starts looking more suspicious to me.
Maybe I’m too lenient but part of what I see is people who’ve never played before just trying things out and seeing if they work. And some of those actually seem pretty ludicrious when you think it for awhile. Of course they could Mafioso and still trying out some strategy they thought might work.
You know, 4 days of this might drive us all crazy. Kinda like a 2 hour Friday meeting to decide which shade of blue we want to use for out TPS reports.
I’d be happy if we could pull a trigger late tomorrow. After all that is what moves the game forward. Oh well, just my thoughts right now on a beautiful Saturday afternoon. Think I might go for a walk, watch the sunset and try not to think about the game for the first time in a few days. Maybe watch the sunset and eat a burger.
Oh and if I die I leave my locksmith shop to Kat. Hopefully someone will ask you how you got here.
Only having two kills last night has been bothering me all day. I hate being confused.
I can’t see the GA burning their one night of protection this early, unless it’s Autolycus, so I don’t think that was why.
I don’t think SK would choose not to kill, and certainly not the Mafia. Their goal is for everyone but themselves to end up dead.
So that leaves that a Miller blocked someone, the Doctor protected someone, or there was an overlap between two of the night-killers. With any of those possibilities someone has some extra information.
I think the Doctor probably protected themselves last night because day 1 was so short that I don’t think he could be sure he wasn’t protecting Mafia. If the Doctor protected themselves and was saved then someone knows who the Doctor is (though they can’t be sure because it could have been a Miller blocked them). This could be bad if it was the Mafia, or the SK. If it was the pro-town Vig then it might actually be a good thing because if the Vig is exposed he can vouch for the Doctor.
If a Miller blocked someone they now have a suspicion of who the Vig or SK is, or the Mafia but that’s less likely the block would work. I assume they can’t be sure if their block worked since I don’t think NAF1138 tells people when their block worked (please correct me if I’m wrong). They could try blocking the same person again tonight and if we end up with two kills again they could be a little surer, and then be onto the Vig or SK.
If there was an overlap then two of the three night-killers can suspect that someone else targeted the same person, and use this to look back through posts for any clues about who else might have targeted that person. This could be a good thing if it was Vig or SK that overlapped with Mafia. They can’t be sure it wasn’t a Doctor protect or Miller block, though, since it could have been one of the other kills that failed, but it is a little extra info they can use.
I have already addressed each of these issues, but since you apparently missed it, I’ll do a quick rehash…
Yes, I was the second vote, but I think my reasoning was well thought out, and I saw few objections to it. Yes, I admit I missed one crucial fact, but so did everyone else who voted for him, so you can hardly hold that against me. The more suspicious votes for Enfant Terrible are the ones that were clearly jumping on bandwagons, NOT those of us who gave reasoned votes before the bandwagon started.
Yes, I was the first to support the trust/mistrust list, and I gave my reason for supporting it ALONG with my reservations about it. Further, if I were scum, why would I have drawn attention to the fact that someone distrusted me unless I legitimately thought it was a good idea. The fact that Pleonast quickly went from mistrusting to trusting me based on that is a reflection on him, NOT on me.
I publicly questioned Winston Smith for one reason only, which he never addressed. That was that he gave a list with justifications, except for his trust of Storyteller and his distrust of me. I figured that if he had good reasons for the rest of his list, he ought to have good reasons for us… unless he was trying to sneak in a mafia in his trust, and cast doubt on me.
You can’t really be serious about this, can you? I pointed out two of her posts which looked like scum tells to me (she had others as well). If I WERE mafia, would I be foolish enough to be the ONLY one publically calling for her death? If I were mafia and I had her pegged on a power role, I would have quietly waited and discussed it when I was meeting with the rest of the mafia. As I already stated, at the end of the day, she was second on my list as most likely mafia behind only Queuing.
Nice try, but that’s a deliberate misrepresentation of what I said. How many people had 100% concrete reasons for their trust lists, especially the earlier ones when we had little to go on? What’s the difference between filling my trust list with gut reactions and just upright random names? All I claimed was that saying that I trusted someone yesterday that may now look suspicious, when it was pretty much a random list, doesn’t account to much.
Be careful with saying things like that. I’m not prepared to pull a trigger for a while because it’s quite clear at this point that we’re very divided among three or four candidates. It’s very clear to me that one or two of the candidates are very legitimate suspects, and at least one case is an attempt by the mafia to force a bandwagon and end the day early. I will not be satisfied with ending the day until we have these candidates either exonerated or lined up such that the VIG and potentially the SK also have good targets to go on for the night.
Except you didn’t just say that you filled it with gut reactions or random names, you said you filled it with “largely hogwash” and then seemed to contrast it with your mistrust list “which was accurate to [your] suspicions”, which I inferred (perhaps wrongly) to mean your trust list was deliberately inaccurate.
There’s a huge difference between “gut reactions” and “hogwash” and even a distinct difference between “random names” and “hogwash” (unless you use “hogwash” differently that anyone I know, and it doesn’t really mean “a load of BS”). So which is it?
If someone says they trust someone on “gut reactions” they have minimal evidence, but at least they’re painting an accurate picture of who they trust (which is what I thought the point behind the list was). They may need to change it later as more info comes in, true; but just posting random names with no evidence, not even a wild guess, is pointless. Why not just say you don’t trust anyone (which at least two people did, that I recall)? Or not post a trust list at all? Of course, that may look suspicious, since you supported the trust list idea. Why did you support it, if you thought it was so un-helpful that it didn’t matter if yours was accurate or not?
And you still haven’t answered my original question of why posting “hogwash” would trap the Mafia, to which I’ll add why posting random names would do so.
I’m not trying to be mean or anything here. Notice I’m not voting for you. I just think it looks bad–like you’re regretting a name or names that you included and now are trying to cover yourself. Everyone’s reasons were pretty thin in Day One here, and in the previous game as well. Every Civilian is gonna have to look back more than once and admit, “Oops, I made a mistake when I voted for/mistrusted/trusted so-and-so.” The fact that you’re trying to disclaim your list makes you appear either guilty (i.e. you expect the list will give you away as a Mafia member) or untrustworthy (i.e. your information is suspect even if you aren’t Mafia). I’m leaning towards the latter right now, which leaves me disappointed because I originally found your analysis posts helpful, but now I’m inclined to not trust a thing you post except for your final vote each day.
So, you won’t get a vote against you from me today, but probably will on a day that I don’t have a good Mafia suspect. Because a possible Civilian whose info I can’t trust is worse to me than a player like Autolycus who posts a lot of nonsense, because bad info is worse than no info.
I’m trying VERY hard not to jump on the Blaster Master Bandwagon. I think he’s got alot of good analysis, but a part of me just thinks that he’s trying a little too hard to cover his tracks. I’m not too sure at this point, but I’m leaning towards trusting Rysto, as he’s got alot of good counter-points. As for Gadarene and Pleonast (please excuse my spelling!), I don’t have enough of a tell on them yet to decide either way. I’ll leave my vote for chrisk stand for now, but I may change it soon.
