Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Blaster_Master]

@Kat

Except you didn’t just say that you filled it with gut reactions or random names, you said you filled it with “largely hogwash” and then seemed to contrast it with your mistrust list “which was accurate to [your] suspicions”, which I inferred (perhaps wrongly) to mean your trust list was deliberately inaccurate.

There’s a huge difference between “gut reactions” and “hogwash” and even a distinct difference between “random names” and “hogwash” (unless you use “hogwash” differently that anyone I know, and it doesn’t really mean “a load of BS”). So which is it?

First of all, I said “largely meaningless”. Second, I’m using the definition of hogwash that is the only one I know, i.e. meaningless. Now I ask, from an information theory perspective, what exactly is more meaningless than random information? Nothing.

If someone says they trust someone on “gut reactions” they have minimal evidence, but at least they’re painting an accurate picture of who they trust (which is what I thought the point behind the list was). They may need to change it later as more info comes in, true; but just posting random names with no evidence, not even a wild guess, is pointless. Why not just say you don’t trust anyone (which at least two people did, that I recall)? Or not post a trust list at all? Of course, that may look suspicious, since you supported the trust list idea. Why did you support it, if you thought it was so un-helpful that it didn’t matter if yours was accurate or not?

You’re missing the point. The idea for the trust/mistrust list was a way for the detective and beat cops to get their information out without being tracked as easily as the idea that chrisk proposed. Saying you trusted no one was actually worse than random information because you essentially eliminate yourself as a potential cop candidate, making the job for the mafia easier. Further, considering there was almost no information on which to act, a “gut reaction” is pretty much indistinguishable from random information because.

And you still haven’t answered my original question of why posting “hogwash” would trap the Mafia, to which I’ll add why posting random names would do so.

I explained this earlier as well, but I’m willing to take another stab at it. I think one method mafia may use to hide their tells is to find the individuals that seem to have a high amount of trust and generally agree with him or find someone who is generally distrusted and disagree with him. Being that Rysto and I generally had the highest levels of trust, I figured a member of the mafia may try to hide his stench by copying our trust/mistrust lists. If my list includes names of those who hadn’t done much to be on the radar in either direction AND another individual also includes an eerily similar list AFTER I posted mine, I can then start to question his motives for including that name as well, and only after I had mentioned it. Obviously, in retrospect, this concept was flawed, which is why I dropped it.

I’m not trying to be mean or anything here. Notice I’m not voting for you. I just think it looks bad–like you’re regretting a name or names that you included and now are trying to cover yourself. Everyone’s reasons were pretty thin in Day One here, and in the previous game as well. Every Civilian is gonna have to look back more than once and admit, “Oops, I made a mistake when I voted for/mistrusted/trusted so-and-so.” The fact that you’re trying to disclaim your list makes you appear either guilty (i.e. you expect the list will give you away as a Mafia member) or untrustworthy (i.e. your information is suspect even if you aren’t Mafia). I’m leaning towards the latter right now, which leaves me disappointed because I originally found your analysis posts helpful, but now I’m inclined to not trust a thing you post except for your final vote each day.

So, you won’t get a vote against you from me today, but probably will on a day that I don’t have a good Mafia suspect. Because a possible Civilian whose info I can’t trust is worse to me than a player like Autolycus who posts a lot of nonsense, because bad info is worse than no info.

I understand how the idea looks, based on how you interpretted my reasoning. I think the main reasons it failed was because it was over-thought, and I over-estimated my level of trust. The bottom line is, we all made some tactical mistakes on the first day that led to a bad lynching and a worse night. This idea to try to double bluff the mafia apparently wasn’t the best idea, but at least it looks like the only person it backfired on was me.

[Blaster_Master]

@Pygmy Rugger

I’m trying VERY hard not to jump on the Blaster Master Bandwagon. I think he’s got alot of good analysis, but a part of me just thinks that he’s trying a little too hard to cover his tracks.

This is the thought process that bothers me, about the general sentiment of those in favor of lynching me. This game breeds so much paranoia, that we can get punished for being TOO helpful, which I admit is none but my own fault for posting so damn much.

And for those who hold issue with my analysis, notice I have seldom provided any FoS without what looked like solid reasoning at the time. For instance, if my FoS on CaerieD was SO SO bad yesterday, why didn’t anyone question my reasoning then? It’s easy to point fingers AFTER we get more information. I imagine when the first mafia member is killed, anyone who had that person in their initial trust list will be highly scrutinized for it, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if some of them are the same people who are pointing their fingers at me for initially distrusting CaerieD. So, if you disagree with my reasoning, challenge me when I make my analysis, and I’ll meet your challenge.

[Fern_Forest]

@Blaster Master

Be careful with saying things like that.

Two reasons why I say it. This is day 2 and we still know so little. Yesterday began March 30, 12:36 PM HST and in the first 24 hours we’ve had 155 posts. With anothe 49 so far this day. We don’t know too much more today then yesterday. But later on we’ll have much more to go on especially when we get our first mafia kill. With a mafia kill we’ll have posts to review by someone who knew a lot. We could make an intense effort to try and find someone today but … Well a lot of effort but low chance of reward. I don’t really expect a mafioso to make an posting error, rather we’ll do better with their voting patterns once we get one. True I guess the longer we talk the better chance but I’m only human. Maybe a full weekend is about my limits. Is it normal to see mafioso hiding behind my couch?

Another reason we shouldn’t be afraid to vote is that it’s our best tool. Getting 4 or 5 votes isn’t too big of a deal, votes are pretty fluid. But get someone 9 votes or even start the countdown and the pressure is really strong. They have to defend themselves or go down and that is where they are most likely to make a mistake if they’re scum. If they make a good defence then we can always stop the clock. So let’s not be afraid to vote, let’s put their heads on the chopping block and see if they crack.

I think everyone has posted. Here’s people’s last post.
Aguecheek - Today, 03:58 PM
ArizonaTeach - Today, 03:26 AM
Autolycus - Yesterday, 09:19 PM
Blaster Master - Today, 07:42 PM
brewha - Today, 10:33 AM
chrisk - out
Fern Forest - Now
Flying Cow of Doom - Today, 03:29 PM
Fretful Porpentine - Today, 04:26 PM
Gadarene - Today, 06:48 PM
glee - 03-29-2007, 11:56 PM
hocow - Today, 11:42 AM
Kat - Today, 06:49 PM
Kivvik - Today, 04:26 PM
Lakai - Today, 08:16 AM
MadTheSwine - Today, 04:58 PM
Malacandra - Yesterday, 12:51 PM
Menocchio - Today, 04:27 PM
MonkeyMensch - Today, 10:41 AM
nesta - Today, 05:33 PM
pimaspinner - Today, 12:17 PM
Pleonast - Today, 04:42 AM
Pygmy Rugger - Today, 07:28 PM
Queuing - Today, 06:27 AM
Rysto - Today, 05:01 PM
Smitty - Yesterday, 01:09 PM
StarvingButStrong - Today, 02:51 PM
Storyteller0910 - 03-29-2007, 04:40 PM
Sturmhauke - Today, 10:06 AM
Suburban Plankton - Today, 03:58 PM
Winston Smith - Yesterday, 02:31 AM
Zuma - Today, 07:16 AM

So it looks like today we haven’t heard from glee, Winston Smith and Storyteller0910

[Santo_Rugger]

@Blaster Master

This is the thought process that bothers me, about the general sentiment of those in favor of lynching me. This game breeds so much paranoia, that we can get punished for being TOO helpful, which I admit is none but my own fault for posting so damn much.
<snip>

It bothers you that I don’t want to jump on your bandwagon? I’m trying to help you out here. Just chill out a bit… just a bit. I said two good things about you, and one bad thing, and you felt you had to defend it. You’re making it very hard for me not to switch my vote.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Fern Forest

<snip>
So it looks like today we haven’t heard from glee, Winston Smith and Storyteller0910

IIRC, those three all said they had IRL obligations for the next 48 hours or so. I, myself, was gone on Wednesday, and it took me this long to get caught up enough to the point where I felt comfortable posting. Give 'em a day or two, I’m sure they’ll chime in soon enough. All three have had either a lot of posts, or succinct (sp) analysis to this point.

[Blaster_Master]

@Pygmy Rugger

It bothers you that I don’t want to jump on your bandwagon? I’m trying to help you out here. Just chill out a bit… just a bit. I said two good things about you, and one bad thing, and you felt you had to defend it. You’re making it very hard for me not to switch my vote.

No no no… I was trying to say that it bothers me that people feel compelled to jump on ANYONE’s bandwagon, muchless mine, for being “TOO helpful”. I’m still trying to figure out how that’s a bad thing. And by that sentiment, it’s strange that I’m suddenly generally not trusted for being too helpful, but Rysto is still largely trusted, despite that he gained the trust by doing the spread sheet. I’m trying to figure out the hypocracy of that sort of reasoning, and who it implicates.

Also, please note that the post wasn’t meant as an attack on you, but as an attack on that reasoning as a good enough reason for those who HAVE voted to lynch me.

[Blaster_Master]

@Pygmy Rugger

IIRC, those three all said they had IRL obligations for the next 48 hours or so. I, myself, was gone on Wednesday, and it took me this long to get caught up enough to the point where I felt comfortable posting. Give 'em a day or two, I’m sure they’ll chime in soon enough. All three have had either a lot of posts, or succinct (sp) analysis to this point.

Also, all the more reason NOT to end the day early. Remember, several people didn’t even get to vote yesterday, and Enfant Terrible didn’t get to put out his defense in time which I think likely would have saved him and probably would have gotten Autolycus or Queuing lynched yesterday instead.

[Santo_Rugger]

I agree with most of your reasoning. However, it is a RPG (Role Playing Game), and just as some of us have roles in the game, all of us have roles IRL. I wasn’t able to vote on the first day because I had IRL obligations. Granted, my input most likely would not have changed any outcomes, but the game went on regardless. Just because those three are out of “town” for a couple days, visiting their grandmas or whatever, doesn’t mean we should hold up the entire game for them. Just like my IRL town doesn’t stop the presses when I’m out of town for a couple days.

That being said, I’m in favor of the 12 hour countdown, it only makes sence. Why should we cap an innocent without giving them a chance (and others the chance) to defend them fully. And give those in favor of said lynchings to change their minds. As has been said before, it only benefits the Mob to have flash judgements. Not to mention, I’m pretty sure the 12 hour thing has already been established.

[Santo_Rugger]

Oh, I see what you mean, not to start the countdown early damning no edit. Regarding that, I think if the day goes on too long at such an early stage in the game, it’s just going to lead to people switching their votes back and forth, keeping the votes from reaching a majority. If that happens, people may start to switch votes to people they trust, just to keep the votes balanced, and all information gained from vote-casting, as opposed to simply accusing, is lost. It’s a fine line, and a two way street. My gut says that it’s most benificial for us to find Mafia based on logic and guts, and we shouldn’t artificially delay the majority in order to try and squeeze blood from a turnip.

[Fern_Forest]

@Pygmy Rugger

… and we shouldn’t artificially delay the majority in order to try and squeeze blood from a turnip.

Now that’s an analogy I could have used awhile ago. We’ve squeezed it pretty hard. Now it might be time to bring out the vice and give it a few turns.

[Blaster_Master]

@Pygmy Rugger

Oh, I see what you mean, not to start the countdown early damning no edit. Regarding that, I think if the day goes on too long at such an early stage in the game, it’s just going to lead to people switching their votes back and forth, keeping the votes from reaching a majority. If that happens, people may start to switch votes to people they trust, just to keep the votes balanced, and all information gained from vote-casting, as opposed to simply accusing, is lost. It’s a fine line, and a two way street. My gut says that it’s most benificial for us to find Mafia based on logic and guts, and we shouldn’t artificially delay the majority in order to try and squeeze blood from a turnip.

I do think you have a point, that if we’ve pretty much reached a consensus, sitting around with virtually nothing to discuss, then delaying a final vote tally is a bit silly. However, that point clearly hasn’t been reached yet for today, so I think we’re better off crossing that bridge when we get to it. On the other hand, I can’t even say with high certainty that anyone will necessarily receive the necessary 10 votes necessary to start the countdown, with four people in line for the choppin’ block, that is.

[Autolycus]

Uuuugh, my head’s stuffed harder than Jenna Jamison’s box. I’s spent today hanging’s out with me friend Jimmy, and everywhere we’s go people are talkin’s bout mafia this, mafia that. Aint nobody in this town know how’s to mind their owns business? Judge not lest yours legs get broken, that’s what me brother always said.

If youz guys gotta know what I think, it’s the sames as before. No change.

[Fern_Forest]

Pleonast - 5 (Fern Forest, Kat, MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine)
Blaster Master - 4 (Gadarene, hocow, pimaspinner, Queueing)
chrisk - 4 (Arizona Teach, Flying Cow Of Doom, Lakai, Pygmy Runner)
Queueing - 4 (StarvingButStrong, zuma, nesta, kivvik)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Gadarene - 1 (chrisk)
nesta - 1 (sturmhauke)

So Autolycus, are you going to cast a vote? We got 20 so far.

[Autolycus]

@Fern Forest

So Autolycus, are you going to cast a vote? We got 20 so far.

I’s believe in not’s makin unnecessary-like enemies, so tha answa’s no fo’ nowz.

[zuma]

Unbelievable. After all the damage the town suffered from a premature ending of day one, you want to do it again? There is nowhere near a concensus at this point, and we’re still waiting for chrisk’s replacement. Not to mention Winston Smith who pulled this stunt last time.

unvote: Queuing
Vote: Pygmy Rugger

[Lakai]

I have been thinking about more ways to link up people who voted for Enfant. The only thing I am really sure of is that some mafia had to of voted for Enfant. This reduces the list from 31 names to 9.

Here is the list again:

Pleonast
BlasterMaster
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCow
Gadarene
Malacandra
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
[del]Cowgirl[/del]
Winston Smith

I am suspicious of Malacandra here, because his/her only post of value in this thread was his/her vote for Enfant.

I don’t have much to go on for Winston Smith and pimaspinner. ArizonaTeach, FlyingCow, Gadarene and Malacandra jumped over here from the Autolycus boat. It could mean that some of them are mafia, but it’s not really smoking gun on any of them.

However, Pleonast , Blaster Master and Storyteller0910 all were in favor of getting Stormhauke off death row. Rysto was also in favor of not killing Stormhauke, but he had different reasoning (he wanted keep strong players) which Pleonast liked over here.

As much as I think chrisk is messing with us with the whole “I can’t handle this game” scheme, I would feel better voting to lynch someone from the Enfant voters list. My original choice of Pleonast was best.

Blaster Master is next on my list. Before I wasn’t too suspicious of him because I mistakenly thought he was against the open detection system. Now that I’ve reread his post I just can’t help but think he is mafia.

This weird conspiracy theory I have is nothing I know for sure now, but it is something I will find out by the end of the day.

Unvote chrisk. Vote Pleonast.

[zuma]

I’ll do a re-read later, but I’m finding it quite interesting people were content to bide their time when chrisk, who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, was on the block, but are advocating slamming the door shut now that a bandwagon is developing for Blaster Master.

[zuma]

Actually they didn’t have their votes on him… disregard my last post. I’ll do a re-read before commenting again.

[Fern_Forest]

@zuma

Unbelievable. After all the damage the town suffered from a premature ending of day one, you want to do it again?

It’s not that we want to end the day early it’s that sitting around in luke warm water isn’t going to make anyone jump. We have to turn up the heat.

And if we turn up the heat now we give the accused lots of time to make his case, be removed from danger and find a new person to sacrifice. If we wait till the last minute to decide who we want to lynch and then that person says don’t do it I’m the GA or something then we will have precious little time to analyze what they say and find a replacement if necessary. We have 3 1/2 days, we could take 7 people to the very edge of death if we wanted. Put their backs to the wall, blindfold them, say “ready, aim” and then see what they have to say. I would like it if we had at least a day remaining as we place the next victim’s back against the wall. Two would be better especially since we’re more likely to choose a townie then a mafioso. It gives us time to rework things if need be.

Let’s put some real heat to people and see how they react because frankly 4 or 5 votes isn’t making people panic.

[zuma]

I agree that we need a couple days to put someone’s back against the wall… But we have almost 4 right now.