Let me add that Aguecheek is on my trust list now as s/he (covering my bases w/ sex) made the effort to look up the inconsistencies in Monkey’s posts. If they were both scum, I believe they would have went on the assumption that few people would be arsed to check that far back in the thread. And, pending some superb explanation of the inconsistency, Monkey is the scummy one in my book now.
Oy vey. I suck at this game. I’m fine with arguing game theory and probabilities, but this he-said she-said business does my head in. Time to man up and say:
un-hit hocow
'cos I am a lot less certain than I was about what looked like a shout-out many, many pages back.
(Is green the appropriate colour to countermand orange? I don’t know that we’ve discussed it.)
Recap, part 2. I think taking a close look at the Winston Smith bandwagon would be profitable. My own comments are bolded and in brackets; everything else is factual recap, and I’d welcome any corrections.
Pleonast says town should lynch Queuing and assassinate Gadarene, but says this is not a vote.
Winston Smith accuses Blaster Master of being Mafia (1413).
BM proposes a new conditional plan: lynch Gadarene; target Queuing if he’s scum, JSexton if not.
BM then suggests that the Serial Killer should hit Winston Smith because he believes he’s scum.
glee proposes another set of conditionals: lynch Queuing, kill Gadarene if scum, Autolycus if not. Blaster Master does not want to kill Autolycus because he says it won’t give any information. glee asks BM to propose his own alternative target. BM says, at 1446:
BM then proposes (1449)
[Editorial comment: It seems to me that BM is playing an absolutely brilliant Richard III to glee’s Buckingham.]
Winston Smith retorts that BM doesn’t get to propose plans; he should do as he’s told.
Queuing asks the two masons to direct BM’s kill, suggesting Aguecheek or JSexton.
kivvik suggests Winston Smith as BM’s target (not a vote); does not support making Autolycus a target.
BM reiterates his recommendation from post 1449.
Menoccio votes for lynching Gadarene, killing Queuing if scum, Winston Smith if not.
JSexton suggests Winston as a single target (not a vote).
Rysto and JSexton vote to lynch Gadarene and assassinate Winston Smith.
Queuing votes to assassinate Aguecheek if Gadarene is town and Queuing if he’s scum.
nesta votes for Queuing if Gadarene is scum and WinstonSmith if Gadarene is town.
Blaster Master asks people to vote between the following two plans:
[Further editorial comment: nesta, of course, knows perfectly well that Gadarene is town, and the “conditional” vote will result in the death of WS, who is also town. I suspect that BM knows this, too, and is aware that both plans will have the same result. Note that very few people have actually voted to assassinate WS at this point – nesta and Menoccio conditionally, Rysto and JSexton absolutely. But BM presents this as if it were a done deal.]
All of the voting that goes on after this is for Plan 1 vs. plan 2 – no alternative targets for the Vig are proposed. The voting is on pp. 31-32 for those who want to study the details; the final count is as follows:
Plan 1: Rysto, JSexton, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, Pleonast, StarvingButStrong, Fretful Porpentine, Lakai, pimaspinner
Plan 2: nesta, glee, Queuing(?), Menocchio, Autolycus, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, MadTheSwine, Fern Forest, kivvik.
[My conclusion: The townies, myself included, have been royally played by BlasterMaster, with a few nudges along the way from glee, kivvik, JSexton, Rysto, and nesta. I submit that BM, like nesta, is Mafia, that the Mafia killed Winston Smith during the night and the real Vigilante tried to kill him during the night and was blocked by the Doctor, and that some of glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM’s co-conspirators, though it’s definitely possible that some are innocent. I think the Mafia would split their votes between plans 1 and 2 – after all, they know the actual outcome of the plans would be identical – and, indeed, we have a three and three split among the six people I suspect.]
Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I’m not so sure about Rysto, who may simply have guessed wrong.
[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I’m not so sure about Rysto, who may simply have guessed wrong.
[/QUOTE]
I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.
since we have a few new votes:
3- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine)
3- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger)
2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton)
1- Fern Forest - (brewha)
1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)
[QUOTE=hocow]
Good catch, Aguecheek
Reading down the thread as I type this, I see that MadTheSwine is trying to detract attention from Suburban Plankton’s accusation, and place it on sturmhawke. That seems a bit scummy to me.
[/QUOTE]
Not trying to detract any attention from Sub Plank,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as **Jsexton ** did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that **sturmhauke **along with Plankton seem to have changed posting styles from last game.
Post #303 has nesta being told by random.org to vote for hocow or Monkey,doesn’t do either one.Odd.
Monkey’s claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread.
I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote MonkeyMensch
[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
Yeah, I do remember it. He said it on post #739…35 posts after you said that. Wanna talk about context, I’d say you should try backchecking yourself first.
Yeah, it was referring to the werewolf thread, but it also referred to the forbidden werewolf thread wherein chrisk first came upon, and shot down, the plan he himself proposed not much later on. I only found it strange that you’d claimed to have followed the first game incredibly closely, but hadn’t read the companion thread. I followed the game pretty casually and still read the forbidden thread. [Inference Starts Here] Denying that you’d read that thread could give you plausible deniability that you’d heard of chrisk’s plan, should it not turn out as well as he’d hoped. Because you had heard of it…when he brought up the idea in the mafia thread. [End Inference]
Vote MonkeyMensch
[/QUOTE]
I am so ashamed. I’m … wrong, Sir Andrew.
::Holds shriveled carrot in the air::
“As God is my witness I’ll never mis-quote again!” Or post after my bedtime.
It’s a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote!
[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.
[/QUOTE]
No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill “one of his own”, you force his hand.
If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum
If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we’re not any worse off than we have been.
If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they’re co-scum for this scenario.
And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime.
It’s a good plan…if you think Aguecheek’s reasoning is sound. I don’t, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though.
As for a real explanation I saw Lakai’s post above mine and thought that’s when the unvoting of chrisk was happening. That’s all I got.
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
The same can be said for sturmhauke can’t it?
[/QUOTE]
Yes, it can. I’ve had sturm in my townie column, but that’s largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven.
I may need to revisit that theory…
[QUOTE=JSexton]
No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill “one of his own”, you force his hand.
If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum
If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we’re not any worse off than we have been.
If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they’re co-scum for this scenario.
And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime.
It’s a good plan…if you think Aguecheek’s reasoning is sound. I don’t, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though.
[/QUOTE]
OK, I guess that’s a point. My objection is withdrawn. I don’t buy the reasoning, but I understand it now.
[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
I’m a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.
[/QUOTE]
My entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia, which means he’s hand in glove with the rest of the Mafia. I’m fairly confident that JSexton, glee, and kivvik are among his fellow Mafia members. However, I am willing to accept the possibility that I’m wrong and BlasterMaster really is the Vig; therefore, I think lynching him outright has the potential to be disastrous. Therefore, I am suggesting that we should proceed with caution: first, test the accuracy of my theory by lynching one of the people whom I think is likely to be Mafia, then (if it seems likely that I’m right) cornering Blaster Master by ordering him to assassinate one of his fellow Mafia members. If he doesn’t follow orders, then we lynch him.
I picked JSexton for my lynch vote because I think he’s a likely lynch target in any case, but I’m equally happy to vote for one of the others.
And my analysis was short – it’s the recap that was long 
Only the material in bold has any pretensions to being analysis.
Although, actually, on looking over the recap again, I’d like to emend my proposal, because I’m less sure about JSexton than I was – I’d missed the fact that Blaster Master proposed to kill JSexton if Gadarene turned out to be TOWN, which would be a hell of a bold move if JSexton were a co-conspirator.
Unvote JSexton.
Vote kivvik.
Assassinate glee if kivvik is scum.
Or vice versa.
[QUOTE=NAF1138]
since we have a few new votes:
3- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine)
3- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger)
2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton)
1- Fern Forest - (brewha)
1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)
[/QUOTE]
And Pygmy Rugger only gets one vote, not one for each of the words in his name.
**pima ** only has 2 votes.
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
Not trying to detract any attention from Sub Plank,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as **Jsexton ** did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that **sturmhauke **along with Plankton seem to have changed posting styles from last game.
Post #303 has nesta being told by random.org to vote for hocow or Monkey,doesn’t do either one.Odd.
Monkey’s claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread.
I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote MonkeyMensch
[/QUOTE]
Shoot,I just looked at the parallel thread,and Monkey did not post in it…dunno why I didn’t think to check that first.I still have doubts ,but not enough Unvote MonkeyMensch
[QUOTE=JSexton]
Yes, it can. I’ve had sturm in my townie column, but that’s largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven.
I may need to revisit that theory…
[/QUOTE]
You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement? The simple truth is that this is the first game I’ve played that used a Vig, and I don’t know all the intricacies.
While we’re on the topic of posting styles, it seems to me that you have much less concrete reasoning this time around. For example, I believe in your initial analysis post you said you thought I was town “for minor reasons,” and gave similar one-line thoughts on everyone else. I was expecting a bunch of deep analysis from the vaunted JSexton, but so far I haven’t seen it.
[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch]
I am so ashamed. I’m … wrong, Sir Andrew.
::Holds shriveled carrot in the air::
“As God is my witness I’ll never mis-quote again!” Or post after my bedtime.
It’s a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote!
[/QUOTE]
I’m going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch.
This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn’t sit right with me, either.
[QUOTE=hocow]
I’m going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch.
This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn’t sit right with me, either.
[/QUOTE]
That’s no surrender, it’s an admission of a screw up. Silly.
[QUOTE=sturmhauke]
You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement?
[/quote]
No, I didn’t say that at all. You’ve posted much less analysis than the last game. Of course, the lack of a cop role (presumably) may account for that. But it’s worth looking at your posts again with a fresh eye.
That’s not true at all. All of the people I called as scum got a full paragraphs with links.
“Vaunted”? Have I claimed to be a great master at this game? I’m experienced, yes. But on the sites I usually play at, I’m generally regarded to be better than average, but only by a bit. My overall record of wins is hovering around 40%. (Granted, I started with an atrocious 0-7 record that I’ve been working to improve, but still)
Also, the main reason I didn’t sign up for the initial game is that my wife had a baby 3 weeks ago. As a result, I don’t have nearly as much time as usual to devote to analysis. I’m doing nearly all my posting from work. (Hi boss! :waves:)