Kat I believe its Monday at noon or so. So you should have all Saturday to read it, and come to some sort of conclusion.
FCOD really? They work, or they just don’t all point to the 1st link? Because I went to all of them, and they all point to the same. Not that big a deal.
Due to us needing to make 2 decisions, I think we should have people close to be lynched by Sunday morning.
That is when I will be giving my vote at least, and I would suggest that Zuma, Pleonast and BM due the same.
Well, I haven’t re-read the whole thread, because the signal-to-noise ratio approaches 0 as this game approaches the end of Day 2. Frankly, if the Mafia managed to orchestrate that, they’re geniuses. I find it far more likely that a bunch of Townies got in a screaming match with one another, all of them getting indignant because they were being accused of lying. The more indignant they got, the more suspicious they looked, and we ended up killing off the ones who couldn’t prove that they were Town. I can’t find very much of interest there. From the rest of the game, though, some things did stand out.
First off is this post from Kat on Day 1. Remember my (faulty) analysis of how CaerieD’s trust list led to her death. Well, I was probably wrong about that, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use the same logic here for our own benefit. At this point in the thread, nesta had posted exactly once in the game. So why on earth did Kat trust her? Perhaps Kat slipped a fellow Mafioso in her trust list?
Second is this post from Blaster Master. At the time, I thought that he was Mafia, and trying to divert attention from my theory about CaerieD’s death. With what we know now, it’s clearly a post from the Vigilante begging for help on future kills. I can’t see any reason why the Serial Killer would be asking for help like this – any death benefits the Serial Killer. In another post(which I forgot to note the number of), Blaster Master indicates that he’s very worried that the Serial Killer will soon turn on the town. There’s no way that the Serial Killer would want to bring that kind of thought to our attention. So at this point, I believe that Blaster Master is indeed the Vigilante.
Third is JSexton’s post of his initial analysis. His very first point accuses Blaster Master of being the Serial Killer. Thing is, that makes no bloody sense. This comes 500 posts after BM’s post I just linked to above. I have to believe that a player of JSexton’s experience should be able to catch the hints. I think that he saw that the bandwagon was ready to take out Blaster Master, and that his voice could push things over the top. Then, when BM was dead and revealed as the Vigilante, he could say that he had been right that BM had had a killing role – too bad that he had misread things and BM had been the Vig, not the SK. This post could be interpreted as being a hint to fellow Mafioso to manipulate the conditional exactly as he said(remember, during the day, Mafioso can’t communicate off-board). That’s kind of weak, I realize. There’s also this post, in which he proposes lynching Queuing, and killing Gadarene only if Queuing is Town(in the meantime, most people were calling for Gadarene’s head only if Queuing was scum). Now, he mentions Aguecheek as the target if Queuing is scum, and I don’t know what to make of that. He could be trying to protect a fellow Mafioso. Or, when Gadarene and Queuing both turned up Town, maybe he’d call for Aguecheek’s head next. I’m not going to try to read his mind here.
Third, I found the Enfant Terrible bandwagon to be quite interesting. Here’s the order in which people voted for him(green means confirmed Town):
1)Pleonast
2)Blaster Master
3)Arizona Teach
4)Flying Cow of Doom
5)Gadarene
6)Malacandra
7)storyteller0910
8)pimaspinner
9)cowgirl
10)Winston Smith
Now, here’s the order in which people FoS’ed Enfant Terrible(up to the casting of the 3rd vote)
1)storyteller0910
2)Pleonast*
3)CaerieD
4)Gadarene
5)Smitty
6)Blaster Master*
7)Arizona Teach
8)Lakai
9)pimaspinner
10)zuma
11)kivvik
12)Menocchio
13)Fretful Porcupine
I find it quite interesting that storyteller0910 started the Enfant Terrible bandwagon, but didn’t actually vote until it had accumulated 6 votes already. Got caught behind in a fast-moving game? Or waiting until your vote would be lost among the noise?
Next, hocow. Blaster Master believes her to be the Serial Killer, and I agree. Remember how early in the thread, several of us were wondering why all three victims were players from the last game. Blaster Master “theorized” that the Vig and SK killed people who had already had the chance to play. hocow was the only person who backed-up this theory. There was also an interesting exchange on Day 2 between hocow and Blaster Master.
Finally, pimaspinner did say something stupid early on today when he contradicted himself. We keep killing people for saying stupid things though(Enfant Terrible and Winston Smith especially) and they end up being Town. We(and I certainly include myself in this) keep making the mistake of confusing stupid with scummy. So far, I don’t think that the Mafia have done many stupid things.*
Jeez, I forgot to vote:
Vote hocow. As somebody already pointed out, if hocow is the SK, lynching her prevents another killer.
[color=DarkOrange]Assassinate JSexton. His faulty analysis of Blaster Master is too much to get over.
Oh, and I am definitely not happy that storyteller was the one who FoS’ed pimaspinner, but has yet to vote for him.
sigh
Should have previewed.
Vote hocow. As somebody already pointed out, if hocow is the SK, lynching her prevents another killer.
Assassinate JSexton. His faulty analysis of Blaster Master is too much to get over.
Oh, and I am definitely not happy that storyteller was the one who FoS’ed pimaspinner, but has yet to vote for him.
Ok, I’m an idiot. If hocow is the SK, then BM doesn’t get a night kill. Now I need to think whether it’s worth trading a random kill by the SK for one more night kill by BM.
If hocow is the SK as you propose, Rysto, and Blaster Master is the vig, if we lynched hocow would Blaster Master be able to kill anyone that night? I thought the vig becomes an ordinary townie once the SK is dead.
Well, to accomplish the same thing, lynch JSexton and have BM kill hocow.
Ok, this isn’t too hard to work out. If hocow is not the SK, then it doesn’t matter whether we lynch JSexton and night kill hocow or vice versa. It does make a difference if hocow is the SK. Here’s how things will work out:
Today: Lynch hocow
Night: Mafia kills a Townie
Tomorrow: Lynch JSexton
Night: Mafia kills a Townie
Today: Lynch JSexton
Night: Mafia kills a Townie
BM kills hocow
hocow kills a random person
So if we lynch hocow first, we’re guaranteed to lose 2 Townies. If we lynch JSexton and night-kill hocow, then we lose one Townie and one random person. That random person could either be a Townie or a Mafioso, so that way sounds better. The only way that lynching hocow is better is if the Doctor can managed to save somebody. And, if we have a Miller, he could really help us out by blocking hocow tonight.
So, I say:
Unvote hocow
Vote JSexton
Assassinate hocow
I am the one that pointed out that lynching the SK prevents another night kill.
So which is better? Lynching the SK, or letting the Vigilante kill him?
In the first scenario, we lynch the SK, which makes the Vigilante into a vanilla Citizen. and the Mafia makes their kill. There is only one kill at night, which will definitely be a Citizen. (We will assume for purposes of this analysis that no kills are blocked, and that nobody chooses not to kill at night).
In the second scenario, we lynch someone else, the Vigilante kills the SK, the Sk still gets to make their kill, and the Mafia gets theirs as well. We are guaranteed to be down one Citizen (from the Mafia), likely two (I assume the SK, knowing they are being targeted, will kill a Citizen out of spite/revenge), and possible three (if the Town guesses wrong on their lynch.
The only difference come morning is that in scenario 2, the Vigilante becomes a confirmed Citizen, but in scenario 1 he does not.
So are we willing to trade one or two bodies in order to confirm Blaster Master’s status?
Of course, all of the above assumes that we know who the Serial Killer is. Since we don’t, all of these calculations are exactly as valuable as our guess is correct.
I’ll be the first to admit I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to this game. This is the first time I’ve ever played, and I am woefully inadequate. I said before that my post #1772 didn’t seem to be contradictory in my head. I can see now how some people would see it so. I was commenting on the fact that **Rysto ** pointed out how the scum would not be voting together. That made perfect sense, but it seemed like common sense to me, and that pointing it out was an effort to obtain trust from the town. Following his reasoning, it seemed to me that **storyteller ** was voting **FCOD ** to get the ball rolling. Again, I apologize for not articulating this correctly. Hell, I don’t know a scum tell from Adam. I’m having to rely only on what my insticts are telling me. So far, I’ve been mostly wrong. I thought **Enfant Terrible, Blaster Master, Pleonast, and zuma ** were all scum. **Gadarene ** and Winston Smith I did not. I went along with the plan for Blaster Master to kill **Winston ** because I thought that **Winston ** would die either way (because I felt **Gadarene ** would be confirmed town, and I didn’t want **Queuing ** to be Vig killed because I thought he was also town. I was a little bit more sure about **Queuing ** than **Winston ** if you are wondering). I did offer up a feeble alternative for Winston, albeit jokingly. If Queuing winds up being Mafia, I’ll give myself a big :smack:.
I may go to bed tonight and wake up facing a lynch mob. So be it. If so, I will mount a defense. It’s embarrassing, but if I’m lynched you will all see how stupid and bad at this game I really am when you find out I am not the Mafia scum some are theorizing me to be.
I’ll go ahead and get my vote in for Rysto. And because think that Blaster Master is probably right about who the SK is, based on his reasoning of how he decided who to kill on night 1, and **hocow’s ** post about why she thought that’s why they were targeted, I will ask the Vig to kill hocow.
I started the game thinking that the mafia would act suspiciously. And a lot of people seem to have thought that but they saw things that, for the most part, I wasn’t seeing. Those people I did get suspicious of have all turned out to be town, especially those with power roles. This of course makes playing the game extremely hard if the people you have the hardest time trusting are on your side.
Should we ask the Miller to block hocow? Then if there are two kills tonight we’d know a little more.
We don’t even know if we have any Millers. It seems quite risky to depend on us having any.
Everyone’s forgettin’ bout the local millers. I think they’s be throwin’ some monkeys into the wrench, if ya knows what I mean.
Oks, so maybe there aren’t any millers. Anyways, ya knows, here’s everyone talkin’ bout learnin’ shit from the numba of kills we’s get each night. But ain’t that a load of bullshit? Because we haves to consider the Doctor, the GA, and the miller(s), an’s the fact that the so-called SK 'aint gotta do shit if he dont wanna.
If this is how it’s gonna be, maybes the lynch mob should’s get a new hobby.
Ok, it’s been so long since we started. But if we elect not to lynch hocow then, unless the Miller knows better, we might as well suggest that they block her. She’s as good a candidate as any.
Oh, I definitely agree that the Millers should be blocking hocow. We just shouldn’t depend on that to prove or disprove whether hocow is the SK.
Why do we’s think hocow is the SK again? Maybe hocow is the doctor and Fern Forest an’ Rystoare Mafia tryin’ to kill 'im off or at least block his action?
Of course if they’s were mafia they wouldn’t know, or maybe’s somebody tipped 'em off. Nobody’s safe in this stinkhole.
FUCK. sorry. I forgot no edit. All I did was change the **Coding[b/]. Honest >>_<<;;;;
Problem with this is that say Hocow is the SK. The SK has the choice of killing or not killing. Therefore they could just not kill, and have everyone believe that they are hocow.
Honestly I see no way to KNOW who the SK is until someone actually kills them. Confirming BM is not really necessary at this time. IF the SK has not been killed by the time we have evened up the odds a little, which is the only reason BM is still alive, we must then lynch BM, to eliminate 2 things. The possibility of him really being the SK and the killing of extra people at night. As stated, at some point, we will want that to end. Obviously the preferred method of that is by having BM kill the SK, but the VIG killing ability ends with the SK, therefore it doesn’t matter if BM is confirmed by NAF or not. The fact that only 1 night kill happens after the SK is killed confirms BM.
Unless he is mafia of course.
We should not, IMO, be going after the SK tonight. The SK has the same knowledge as vanilla citizens. They don’t know who is town or who is scum. The SK may very well kill another scum tonight. Hell, the SK has been a better townie then all the rest of us (doctor excluded probably) in that they actually got a scum. What we need to do is get 2 scum. If we get 2 scum, they will be down to 6 and we have a hope. We lose, maybe, 2 other citizens tonight, bringing it down to (I think) 17 town aligned people left. 1 SK. The next day we go lynch another scum, getting them to 5, and then we direct the VIG to go after we who think is the SK. The night brings it down to 15 citizens, 5 scum. I would say at this time we have the cops and/or masons claim. The GA then uses his 1 time 2 person protection, the doctor protects whomever, and we lynch scum. This should give us enough info to win the game.
So lets just concentrate on trying our damndest to get 2 scum. Forget the SK at this moment.
UH OH… auto is in trrrrrroubllle.