[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
I’m seeing the same thing as everyone else: werewolves lurking around every corner, hiding in every shadow.
cue spooky music
[/QUOTE]
What you’re seeing as an defense of Rubystreak I see as a mild accusation against Rubystreak. It could be spun that he was warning her (as a fellow werewolf) that she was being over-the-top, or it could be spun that he was calling her out (as a townie) for suspicious behavior. But I don’t think it works as a defense of her.
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
..and you are looking for seers for what reason?
[/QUOTE]
The townies don’t want to accuse the Seer and possibly force him/her into a role revelation.
Okay, I’ve been weighing voting records in my mind and based on those, I’ll go with:
Vote for jsgoddess.
She’s not had the most suspicious behavior of the remaining players, but obviously I haven’t done all that great voting based on behavior.
I could get aboard a jsgoddess wagon, I was voting her yesterday until Winston started running around in that fancy dress wolf costume. Of all remaining players jsgoddess has had the most suspicious posts on my re-reads.
vote jsgoddess
Wait, when did the Masons and Werewolves meet their compatriots? Do we know if they were aware on the first day of voting? If not, that day is meaningless in that respect.
I believe the Masons and Wolves were aware of their brethren at the opening of the game. The Seer had to wait until the first night to divine anyone’s identity, and the GA also had to wait until the first night to choose who he/she would protect.
**CTTDSWHC ** is right. The Masons and Werewolves knew the other people in their group from the beginning of the game.
Vote Count;
jsgoddess - 4 Votes (MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton, Kat, One And Only Wanderers)
Richard Parker - 1 Vote (jsgoddess)
I’m not wholly opposed to the lynching of jsgoddess, though I think her behavior at the beginning of the **Rubystreak **suspicion would be odd wolf behavior (unless it was staged). But I do think that **MadtheSwine **and **CometotheDarkSide ** are more suspicious because of their voting records and general behavior.
When is our deadline?
So I attempt to open a discussion about your suspicion of me, and you say that I was “too good” at “handling” the situation, and then you follow with more vague suspicions based on general behavior?
I am 100% pure-bred and corn-fed Town and I’m playing it straight up. I joke, I kid, I yammer, yes…but you’ve got absolutely nothing on me, because there is nothing to have.
If a paranoid bandwagon actually picks up enough momentum to squash me, or the wolves have me for a mid-night snack, I can at least rest-assured that my death will put some missing pieces into place for the survivors.
Well, this is a little earlier than I had hoped to do this, but here goes:
I am the Seer.
On Day 1, I didn’t yet have the chance to investigate anyone. I thought about jumping on the jsgoddess bandwagon, but decided to wait it out and see what came of it. Later, I voted for Menocchio - partly based on JSexton’s argument and partly because he seemed like he was trying too hard to look helpful. I had no idea he was the Alpha, I just thought he was the most likely werewolf at the time.
On Day 2, I had investigated Richard Parker, Townsperson. Mostly this was just random, but I thought he looked a little dodgy. When JSexton started talking about prodding lurkers, I spoke mildly in Richard’s defense, which resulted in both the effects I was trying for: (A), to move suspicion elsewhere, and (B) not to call too much attention to myself. Meanwhile, Wanderers was collecting a lot of votes. I thought about voting for him, but then he said he might claim something so I waited. After the fallout from the Mason claim, the votes were mainly between Miller and moonstarssun. I didn’t think either of them were likely to be werewolves, and decided to cast no vote.
On Day 3, I had investigated Rubystreak, werewolf. I believe it was jsgoddess and Miller who were saying late in Day 2 that Rubystreak had a pattern of posting a lot without actually saying much. There was also her advocacy of voting for players with the lowest post count, while not necessarily following that pattern herself. I investigated her based on that reasoning, then in Day 3 when the subject came up again, I cast my vote for her and started pushing hard. I might have waited until a little later in the day, but Wanderers had already voted for me because he thought my low vote count looked suspicious, and I privately agreed with him even though I denied it in the thread. Even though pushing on Rubystreak would draw more attention to myself than I really wanted at the time, I wasn’t sure she would get lynched otherwise, and I also didn’t want to risk people following Wanderer’s lead and voting for me.
On Day 4, I had investigated Winston Smith, Townsperson. Frankly, all of his posts up until he died make him look like a werewolf. I was a bit surprised when I discovered he wasn’t, and then spent a lot of time trying to cook up a plausible defense, or at least a way to redirect suspicion onto someone else. Before I could come up with anything, he pulled that, shall we say, ill-advised Mason claim. When the votes started piling in, I knew I couldn’t save him without lighting up a giant, “Look at me, I’m the Seer!” beacon for the werewolves, and I wasn’t sure who the Angel was protecting. So, I voted for him, even though I knew he was innocent.
On Day 5 (today), I have investigated jsgoddess, Townsperson. I thought maybe she was pretending to bicker with Rubystreak on Day 3, that maybe she has been playing dumb this whole time. But no, she’s just a townie.
So, why should you believe me? Enginerd and I are the only two people to have voted for both Menocchio and Rubystreak. Voting for a werewolf once could be seen as covering one’s furry ass. Voting for two different werewolves, much less playing an instrumental role in their lynchings, can pretty much be seen as either pro-town or really stupid werewolf tactics. Now, if you think I’m really stupid, I can’t say anything at this point to convince you otherwise, but to point out that I am in fact still alive and not looking too suspect. Well, before now anyway.
And why am I revealing myself now? I had hoped to wait at least another day, but with jsgoddess in danger of swinging from a rope, our odds will not improve tomorrow but the werewolves’ will. Our odds are decent right now, and even if I get killed before the end I think we have a good shot of winning.
This is my analysis. Two werewolves are dead. I do not know how many more there are, or their identities. Here is the list of live players who I have not investigated:
Captain Carrot
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
dnooman
Enginerd
Kat
MadTheSwine
Ogre
One And Only Wanderers
sturmhauke
Suburban Plankton
unfinished symphony
Of these players, I believe that Wanderers is a Mason, and that Enginerd and Ogre are some sort of townie. You already know the reasoning for Wanderers. As I said earlier, Enginerd is the only person besides me to have voted for both dead werewolves. He was also the second to vote for Menocchio, the Alpha. Ogre was the third to vote for Menocchio; I wouldn’t exactly call this a bandwagon jumping vote, because it was cast 3 real days after Enginerd’s, and it was essentially the start of the bandwagon. Excluding them and myself, that leaves these players as the leading suspects:
Captain Carrot
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
dnooman
Kat
MadTheSwine
Suburban Plankton
unfinished symphony
Up to two of them may be Masons, and one may be the Angel. There are at least one, possibly two, live werewolves, based on the size of the game. If I am correct in my assumptions, the werewolves are on this list.
Here is what we should do. Wanderers should vote for someone on this second list, provided that they are not a Mason. After some discussion, at least to ensure that a Mason or the Angel have not been voted for, everyone should vote for the same person. Ideally, the other Masons and Angel should not reveal themselves. The best case scenario is that both the other Masons and the Angel are on this list, but that the votes fall on one of the other players. In this case, we then have a minimum ¼ chance of voting for a werewolf. If we don’t win when we lynch someone, then the Angel should protect me, I will investigate someone on the list (hopefully it will be a werewolf), and we continue tomorrow.
If you think I’m a lying, furry, bloodthirsty bastard, consider this: It is not to my immediate benefit to claim to be the Seer right now. If I am telling the truth, the werewolves will try to get me lynched without exposing themselves. Failing that, they will first try to eat the Angel, then me. If either of these scenarios happens quickly enough, the odds will turn in their favor. On the other hand, if I am a werewolf pretending to be the Seer, I am still exposing myself to extreme scrutiny. Certainly the real Seer will know I am lying. Maybe I’ve carefully crafted an impenetrable web of lies, but if there are any flaws in my web I will earn a date with the gallows, and the wolves will be down by three in only five days – a very poor performance. There is a third option, barely worth mentioning, which is that I am a simple Townsperson claiming to be the Seer. I leave the analysis of that as an exercise for the reader.
Read my post carefully. Read my history, if you like. Think about it all. When you have decided I am the Seer, you know what to do next.
OK 1st things first. if sturmhauke is lying, then the real seer needs to counter claim right now! But pending that development unvote jsgoddess
Unvote jsgoddess.
It’s not necessarily OAOW that has to start out the voting, unless the Masons have been voting for themselves. Ideally anyone who has voted for OAOW or that he has voted for are not Masons.
I don’t have time to do any analysis before I run off to work. When is the vote ending? If it ends today, I won’t be voting; otherwise, I’ll vote when I get home.
well if jsgoddess is in the clear, the next one down on my list would be Kat
vote Kat
This interpretation of Ogre and Enginerd is the weakest link in this reasoning, imho. As I’ve said many times, the odds of any solid evidence coming out of the Day 1 lynching of Menocchio are slim at best. Some early votes for the Alpha by other wolves is a strategy that could have worked as a smokescreen had we not gotten lucky and voted Menocchio into the noose that day. Changing such a vote in an attempt to spare the Alpha as the other votes came in would have risked exposure and suspicion.
That is not to say that Ogre or Enginerd actually did such a thing, just that it is possible, with my usual “Don’t trust Day 1” boilerplate. My Day 1 vote for Enginerd was a totally baseless WAG aside from him just having been quiet.
I say all of this mostly because jsgoddess and I were both in a similarly vulnerable position after Menocchio’s lynching, yet she’s now being vouched for (a Good Thingtm) while I’m still being put in various people’s FOS pool (a Bad Thingtm). The less people there are in that pool with me (the only un-Seen Town I’m 100% sure of with OaOW as a close 2nd, but I don’t forsee many votes for him in the future) the greater the odds that another innocent Townie, me, gets the hook.
Man…I am starting to feel like the village idiot. unvote jsgoddess.Gonna go read through again.
I think that it would have been better to let me get lynched than to out the seer.
A few things about sturmhauke claiming out of the blue strike me as a bit odd (besides the claiming out of the blue part).
[quote=sturmhauke]
I am the Seer.
You weren’t sure who the angel was protecting? During the day? Only the GA and RT know who is being protected, and that happens at night. You could have outed yourself then and had the GA protect you that night.
You didn’t think it would be a good idea to verify OAOW’s claim by investigating him?
Our odds would have been even better had you not let us lynch Winston.
Everyone in this thread knows that Rubystreak was a wolf, and Winston was a townie. You also claim that Richard Parker and jsgoddess are town also. Odd that you didn’t happen to investigate a mason which could have been verified by two other people. Now, you are basically telling the GA that he has to protect you every night so that we can win the game. Wouldn’t that be hilarious if a wolf got the GA to waste his protection on him for the duration of the game? That would also leave the GA open to being killed overnight, which as you stated:
Isn’t the Seer supposed to leave a trail of breadcrumbs for us to follow once they’ve been killed, all the while keeping a low profile? You said yourself that you only left a “mild defense” of Richard Parker, and we happen to have killed both the other people you investigated, so there’s no trail necessary.
If you’re not the Seer, we’ll surely know after the next night.
[QUOTE=dnooman]
A few things about sturmhauke claiming out of the blue strike me as a bit odd (besides the claiming out of the blue part).
Dos this help?
Blank posts I think are now the result of a tag problem.
In the email I got, there was an open quote tag. The email text doesn’t show quoted material.
Here’s the text, without the open quote tag:
A few things about sturmhauke claiming out of the blue strike me as a bit odd (besides the claiming out of the blue part).
You weren’t sure who the angel was protecting? During the day? Only the GA and RT know who is being protected, and that happens at night. You could have outed yourself then and had the GA protect you that night.
You didn’t think it would be a good idea to verify OAOW’s claim by investigating him?
Our odds would have been even better had you not let us lynch Winston.
Everyone in this thread knows that Rubystreak was a wolf, and Winston was a townie. You also claim that Richard Parker and jsgoddess are town also. Odd that you didn’t happen to investigate a mason which could have been verified by two other people. Now, you are basically telling the GA that he has to protect you every night so that we can win the game. Wouldn’t that be hilarious if a wolf got the GA to waste his protection on him for the duration of the game? That would also leave the GA open to being killed overnight, which as you stated:
Isn’t the Seer supposed to leave a trail of breadcrumbs for us to follow once they’ve been killed, all the while keeping a low profile? You said yourself that you only left a “mild defense” of Richard Parker, and we happen to have killed both the other people you investigated, so there’s no trail necessary.
If you’re not the Seer, we’ll surely know after the next night.