Werewolf - a game.

[dnooman]

A few things about sturmhauke claiming out of the blue strike me as a bit odd (besides the claiming out of the blue part).

@sturmhauke

On Day 4, I had investigated Winston Smith, Townsperson. Frankly, all of his posts up until he died make him look like a werewolf. I was a bit surprised when I discovered he wasn’t, and then spent a lot of time trying to cook up a plausible defense, or at least a way to redirect suspicion onto someone else. Before I could come up with anything, he pulled that, shall we say, ill-advised Mason claim. When the votes started piling in, I knew I couldn’t save him without lighting up a giant, “Look at me, I’m the Seer!” beacon for the werewolves, and I wasn’t sure who the Angel was protecting. So, I voted for him, even though I knew he was innocent.

@sturmhauke

I am the Seer.

You weren’t sure who the angel was protecting? During the day? Only the GA and RT know who is being protected, and that happens at night. You could have outed yourself then and had the GA protect you that night.

@sturmhauke

Meanwhile, Wanderers was collecting a lot of votes. I thought about voting for him, but then he said he might claim something so I waited. After the fallout from the Mason claim, the votes were mainly between Miller and moonstarssun. I didn’t think either of them were likely to be werewolves, and decided to cast no vote.

You didn’t think it would be a good idea to verify OAOW’s claim by investigating him?

@sturmhauke

And why am I revealing myself now? I had hoped to wait at least another day, but with jsgoddess in danger of swinging from a rope, our odds will not improve tomorrow but the werewolves’ will. Our odds are decent right now, and even if I get killed before the end I think we have a good shot of winning.

Our odds would have been even better had you not let us lynch Winston.

Everyone in this thread knows that Rubystreak was a wolf, and Winston was a townie. You also claim that Richard Parker and jsgoddess are town also. Odd that you didn’t happen to investigate a mason which could have been verified by two other people. Now, you are basically telling the GA that he has to protect you every night so that we can win the game. Wouldn’t that be hilarious if a wolf got the GA to waste his protection on him for the duration of the game? That would also leave the GA open to being killed overnight, which as you stated:

@sturmhauke

they will first try to eat the Angel, then me.

Isn’t the Seer supposed to leave a trail of breadcrumbs for us to follow once they’ve been killed, all the while keeping a low profile? You said yourself that you only left a “mild defense” of Richard Parker, and we happen to have killed both the other people you investigated, so there’s no trail necessary.

If you’re not the Seer, we’ll surely know after the next night.

[Suburban_Plankton]

I need a little help here.

It looks as though the post **jsgoddess **made at 8:29 was not actually hers, but simply a repost of dnooman’s failed 8:12 post, which Winston Smith had also tried (unsuccessfully) to repost at 8:15. Then **dnooman **himself successfully reposted (“duplicating” jsgoddess’ post) it at 8:35.

Is that correct? I think it’s quite important at this point that we know exactly whose words we are reading.

[dnooman]

@Suburban Plankton

I need a little help here.

It looks as though the post **jsgoddess **made at 8:29 was not actually hers, but simply a repost of dnooman’s failed 8:12 post, which Winston Smith had also tried (unsuccessfully) to repost at 8:15. Then **dnooman **himself successfully reposted (“duplicating” jsgoddess’ post) it at 8:35.

Is that correct? I think it’s quite important at this point that we know exactly whose words we are reading.

Correct.

[sturmhauke]

I don’t know who’s saying what there, but I’ll give a quick answer before I leave for my new job. It would have been too risky to come out as the Seer on Day 1. I wouldn’t necessarily be believed by the Angel, but the wolves would certainly be after me. Even if the Angel did believe me, they would then be trying to stay under the radar and might have then come under other peoples’ suspicion. Maybe I should have come out yesterday to save Winston, but it didn’t seem like the right time. I can elaborate more on that later. I also didn’t investigate Wanderers as I felt the odds of him lying were too low, and my time would be better spent elsewhere.

[wonky]

@dnooman

You didn’t think it would be a good idea to verify OAOW’s claim by investigating him?

Waste of a very precious resource, in my opinion.

I think he was right to let Winston hang and would have been right again to let me hang. To me, the value in a seer isn’t in protecting the town but in outing the not-town. But what the hell do I know? Obviously nothing.

[Richard_Parker]

I see little reason why real the Seer might not have counter-claimed if **Sturmhauke **is lying. Granted, we’ve no reason to believe a counter-claim. If **Sturmhauke **is lying, it’ll just out the real Seer to the wolves, with the GA not knowing who to protect. However, in this scenario, we would just have to lynch them both. Would the wolves take such a gambit just to kill the Seer? It seems unlikely. Given that all the masons and the guardian angel are still alive, it seems like a bad trade at this point. So even in this scenario, if **Sturmhauke **is lying, the real Seer should speak up. Right?
It is worth adding that I while I’d like to believe **Sturmhauke **because I know that I am not a wolf, it is also possible that he just picked two random townies: if **Sturmhauke **is lying (and knows that we’ll lynch him and the real Seer), the claim that **jsgoddess **and I are town would surely lead to suspicion of us. It could be a plan to trade his own life for that of the Seer and then leaving two red herrings to further delay the town. But again, this seems unlikely.

But I think that in the absence of a Seer counterclaim, we’ve got to believe him.

[dnooman]

Unless I’m totally misunderstanding the way this game is usually played, the Seer only comes out if they are about to be lynched. The GA has other people to protect besides the Seer, like maybe an outed mason, or someone they think might be a target for the wolves who has helped lynch wolves in the past.

What I find odd, is that you have basically now challenged the GA. You’re telling them that they need to protect you, and only you for the duration of the game. If you are the Seer, surely the wolves want to eat you before you out another one of them.

If you are a wolf, you have conveniently narrowed down the likely target pool for us (how thoughtful of you), you’ve asked that only you be protected (thus leaving every single townie, including the GA, vulnerable to attack), and you’ve outlined a method for us to lynch ourselves while you conveniently “fail” to find wolves by investigation.

Maybe you and enginerd are wolves, you’ve just exonerated him with your theory, and nobody would ever question 2 people who killed 2 wolves would they? I’m not saying that that scenario is likely at all, but it’s still possible.

We’ve all seen how OAOW’s role claim worked out, everyone believed him. If you come out with a false claim, either a) everyone believes you and we all fall victim to your plan, b) the real Seer decides to out themselves (making the GA decide who to believe), or c) everyone thinks you’re a liar and you get lynched. The OAOW scenario makes it seem highly unlikely that scenario c would happen, if scenario b happened, you’d instantly know the identity of the Seer (who you really want dead), if scenario a happens, you’ve practically won the game already.

You may in fact be the Seer, you may be a wolf, or a townie that want to shake things up a bit. You have definitely put all your cards on the table now either way, excuse me for waiting a bit before taking your bet.

[wonky]

If people don’t believe the claim, lynch me as a test. If I’m a wolf, you’ll have killed a wolf and then go after sturmhauke. If I’m a townie, no big loss.

[dnooman]

@jsgoddess

Waste of a very precious resource, in my opinion.

I think he was right to let Winston hang and would have been right again to let me hang. To me, the value in a seer isn’t in protecting the town but in outing the not-town.

Exactly. Why would he let Winston swing, then completely reverse positions when it’s your neck on the line?

If you wanted to false claim as being the Seer, could you manufacture “breadcrumbs” from your previous posts, and make it seem believable? I don’t think it would be that hard to do.

[Richard_Parker]

@jsgoddess

If people don’t believe the claim, lynch me as a test. If I’m a wolf, you’ll have killed a wolf and then go after sturmhauke. If I’m a townie, no big loss.

But lynching you is not a test at all because if **Sturmhauke **were a wolf he would know you were town.

[wonky]

@dnooman

Exactly. Why would he let Winston swing, then completely reverse positions when it’s your neck on the line?

Well, saving Winston would have taken a miracle, since it wasn’t just garden variety suspicion in his case, but honest-to-god crazy talk.

Say Winston said, “I’m a Mason!” and then sturmhauke said, “I’m the seer and Winston isn’t a Mason or a wolf.” What would you believe?

I know that Winston’s claim was already baffling as hell.

[wonky]

@Richard Parker

But lynching you is not a test at all because if **Sturmhauke **were a wolf he would know you were town.

So, you think he’s a wolf claiming to be a seer in order to protect a townie? To what end? If it’s just to get the real seer to stand up, given that there are only one or two (I imagine) wolves left, that would be a crazy strategy. Of course, if there are tons of wolves left, it might be worth it, but I don’t think there can be.

If he’s speaking up now, it seems it would either be because he’s a wolf and I’m a wolf who’s nearing being lynched, or he’s the seer and he’s trying to protect the first townie he’s had the opportunity to try to protect. (Winston simply doesn’t count, in my mind, since his lynching was messed up beyond the ability of a seer to fix. I’m still cross about that.)

[Richard_Parker]

@jsgoddess

So, you think he’s a wolf claiming to be a seer in order to protect a townie? To what end? If it’s just to get the real seer to stand up, given that there are only one or two (I imagine) wolves left, that would be a crazy strategy. Of course, if there are tons of wolves left, it might be worth it, but I don’t think there can be.

If he’s speaking up now, it seems it would either be because he’s a wolf and I’m a wolf who’s nearing being lynched, or he’s the seer and he’s trying to protect the first townie he’s had the opportunity to try to protect. (Winston simply doesn’t count, in my mind, since his lynching was messed up beyond the ability of a seer to fix. I’m still cross about that.)

No, what I think is what I outlined in my longer post above (recap: I think **Sturmhauke **is most likely the Seer). I was simply pointing out that lynching you and finding out that you’re a townie doesn’t prove anything about **Sturmhauke **-- the only way it would prove something is if we believe the assumption that he would only take the gambit as a wolf to protect you (also a wolf). That seems like an unsafe assumption.

[Richard_Parker]

OneandOnlyWanderers, why vote for Kat? **Kat **voted for **Menocchio **to make him tied with the leader in votes, and also helped start the **Rubystreak ** bandwagon.

[wonky]

@Richard Parker

No, what I think is what I outlined in my longer post above (recap: I think **Sturmhauke **is most likely the Seer). I was simply pointing out that lynching you and finding out that you’re a townie doesn’t prove anything about **Sturmhauke **-- the only way it would prove something is if we believe the assumption that he would only take the gambit as a wolf to protect you (also a wolf). That seems like an unsafe assumption.

Ah, I missed your post.

In the case of the Masons, counterclaiming is obviously the best strategy, since Masons don’t have any inherent worth–only their information is valuable.

In the case of the Seer, I’m not so sure that counterclaiming is the only way.

[Richard_Parker]

@jsgoddess

Ah, I missed your post.

In the case of the Masons, counterclaiming is obviously the best strategy, since Masons don’t have any inherent worth–only their information is valuable.

In the case of the Seer, I’m not so sure that counterclaiming is the only way.

What part of my reasoning do you disagree with?

[wonky]

@Richard Parker

What part of my reasoning do you disagree with?

In this particular game, where we know that we have killed 2 wolves and we assume there are only a couple left, I can’t think of a good reason not to counterclaim. But I bet someone can come up with one.

In a different game, where we are farther behind, the seer is worth more than a wolf, and letting a wolf live might be the better strategy. The interesting thing about a wolf claiming to be a seer is that he doesn’t have much opportunity to be wrong. Claim to be a seer and your results had better be accurate or the jig is up. So how much harm can a false seer do before being revealed?

[Enginerd]

@jsgoddess

If people don’t believe the claim, lynch me as a test. If I’m a wolf, you’ll have killed a wolf and then go after sturmhauke. If I’m a townie, no big loss.

It’s a bigger and bigger loss every day, as the odds keep tilting in the wolves favor. I’m not too keen on this course of action.

I’m inclined to believe Sturmhauke (as long as nobody comes forward to contradict his claim). For what it’s worth, he’s right about me being town, and I think he’s probably right about Ogre as well. Leaving off Richard Parker and jsgoddess, we’ve got a pretty good list of candidates, including a few who’ve been suspected before.

I have to admit that I’m stumped by Wanderers vote for Kat as well. She’s not really on my radar as a possible wolf. Looking at sturmhauke’s list there, I’d finger cometothedarksidewehavecookies, MadtheSwine, and dnooman above anyone else.

Of those folks, cookies has voted to lynch both Ogre and me, while defending Menocchio and not voting for Rubystreak. If you think sturmhauke’s on the right track, that’s a less than stellar history. She’s a little too skeptical of Wanderer’s claim in the absence of any evidence against it, and she’s big on the idea that first day stuff is unreliable, which I disagree with… these posts have me wondering, as well.

Right now, she’s at the top of my list.

[wonky]

@Enginerd

It’s a bigger and bigger loss every day, as the odds keep tilting in the wolves favor. I’m not too keen on this course of action.

Well, as you can imagine, I’m not exactly keen on it myself. If, however, it feels like a safe way to find out if he’s lying about me, and it looks like it would forward the game for the town, especially if he can’t be believed because I’m just too darned suspicious a character, I’m all for it. I win if the town wins.
There is a huge overlap between sturmhauke’s list and the list I had above where I thought suspicion should lie (the one that got me suspected as being a wolf, by the way, by one person on the list).

Mine was simply a list of live players who hadn’t claimed to be masons and who hadn’t voted for either of the known werewolves:

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
jsgoddess
MadTheSwine
Richard Parker
unfinished symphony (replaced smiling bandit)
If sturmhauke is the seer (and I’m going to assume for the duration of this post that he is, the list is:

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
MadTheSwine
unfinished symphony (replaced smiling bandit)
Of the three, unfinished symphony is so quiet it’s nearly impossible to judge. I know we’ve been told there’s a reason for the silence, but that doesn’t really help when it comes to figuring out werewolfieness.

Cookies has been a much subtler player than MadTheSwine. So far, the two known werewolves haven’t been subtle.

[Suburban_Plankton]

It’s public knowledge that I have been suspicious of **jsgoddess **and Richard Parker. sturmhauke, on the other hand, has been on my “probably town” list for a while now. Which makes his claim rather distressing to me, because it means I’m way off base somewhere.

So far, the only person to question sturmhauke’s claim has been dnooman. Now it could be that he (dnooman) is really the seer, but doesn’t want to make an outright claim, or he might just be the only one willing to voice the suspicions that we all have.

I am intrigued by jsgoddess reaction to the whole affair. If sturmhauke is telling the truth, she has just been cleared, yet she’s telling us that it would have been better to let her hang and preserve the secrecy of the Seer. Is this altruism, or more misdirection? I’d like to believe the latter (because it would mean I was right all along, HA!), but it doesn’t seem very likely. There probably aren’t more than 2 wolves left (maybe 3), so if sturmhauke and jsgoddess are playing some sort of game, it’s really a last ditch desperation effort.

So at this point I am inclined to believe sturmhauke. So who gets the FOS now? We’ve got a few candidates that come to mind:

**Kat **- **OAOW **has already voted for her. She was not on my suspect list, until she made a rather “interesting” comment a while back:

@Kat

Okay, I’ve been weighing voting records in my mind and based on those, I’ll go with:

Vote for jsgoddess.

She’s not had the most suspicious behavior of the remaining players, but obviously I haven’t done all that great voting based on behavior.

She didn’t think jsgoddess was the most likely suspect, but she voted for her anyway. The bandwagon wasn’t really rolling too fast at that point, until she kick-started it.

**dnooman **- He’s the only person do openly question sturmhauke. Is he being cautious, or is he a scurvy cur who’s trying to off our beloved Seer?

**ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies **and **MadTheSwine **- I have had these two on my “watch list” for a while, but I honestly can’t remember why at the moment.

We have about 20 hours left until the deadline. I guess I’ll be re-re-re-reading the thread.