Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split [Signups--In progress]

[DaphneBlack]

I’m not really sure how much sense it would make for Seeker to take a dive to protect Telcontar. If they are both wolves, then why not stay out the fray and let Tel be tested, rather than risking both of them (esp. with that hamhanded ‘I’m not saying Tel is a wolf or not, because that would be less fun’ thing). But I’m not saying, as ever, ‘scum would never do that’. Maybe they would. But we really need to stay away from ‘if so-and-so is X, then so-and-what is X/Y’ thinking.

I want to lynch Seeker real bad, I do. We don’t have much wiggle room at this point, at most we have two mislynches. I think we should wait a little while before making a decision on the lynch – another unanimous lynch is another one for the scum to hide in, as well.

[_Undecided_Adrian]

Ok, you three are right. The second one of my twin posts was not that well reasoned.
Though it doesn’t change anything about the suspicion hitlist, for now.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

SoT&B (4): Telcontar, fluiddruid, Jimmy Chitwood, [Undecided] Adrian
Telcontar (1): Oredigger77

[DaphneBlack]

Quick question: how does one view the ‘number of posts in thread’ statistics?

[_Undecided_Adrian]

Go to the game room forum and click on the number of posts on the right.

[DaphneBlack]

Got it, thanks!

[Telcontar]

@'[Undecided

Adrian;10904549’]But it was a good time to do that if he is a wolf: he claimed to be a farmer when no farmer was tested before, so it was relatively certain that the testerizer was no reliable scum tell (which was important because the probability to get tested was so high).
In that case, if he succeeds in not getting lynched, it would be pretty much impossible to figure out the testerizer (if it isn’t impossible anyway…).

It would be helpful, if not all that much so, if someone could confirm or deny that seeker was a farmer. Anyone in a position to do that?

@'[Undecided

Adrian;10904577’]Jimmy, **fluiddruid ** is right, look at Telcontar’s last post as well:
if Seeker comes up wolf, it strongly implies he covered for Telcontar, which means he is going to hang tomorrow.

If he comes up town, the suspicion is not quite as strong and a better lead might turn up.

If **seeker **comes up wolf i think the new lead suspicion is Oredigger77, not me. Not sure if that’s actually where we’d want to go, but the case does rather clearly present itself.

[Oredigger77]

@Telcontar

If **seeker **comes up wolf i think the new lead suspicion is Oredigger77, not me. Not sure if that’s actually where we’d want to go, but the case does rather clearly present itself.

Not really surprising that you feel that way but do you seriously expect people to give up on their suspicions of you? I mean we have confirmed townies, the dead, that suspected you not to mention you’ve made a majority of people’s list of people they suspect.

On the other hand I haven’t been on any and I think that Seeker is a wolf and needs to be treated as such. While it is possible for people to disagree with me on this issue I don’t think I’ve done anything remotely scummy in my debate of this issue.

[Telcontar]

@Oredigger77

Not really surprising that you feel that way but do you seriously expect people to give up on their suspicions of you? I mean we have confirmed townies, the dead, that suspected you not to mention you’ve made a majority of people’s list of people they suspect.

On the other hand I haven’t been on any and I think that Seeker is a wolf and needs to be treated as such. While it is possible for people to disagree with me on this issue I don’t think I’ve done anything remotely scummy in my debate of this issue.

You’re joking, though you don’t realize it. I think people are beginning to wake up to the difference between “a lot of people seem to find so and so suspicious” and “I should find so and so suspicious.” A lot of people find me suspicious, that is true. It is also true that they have jack reason to. If seeker is a wolf, we have good reason to be suspicious of you because you’re arguing to spare him despite pretty substantial reason not to. Doesn’t mean we should automatically assume that we’re right, but we should be suspicious.

[Seeker_of_Truth_and_Beauty]

@Mahaloth

OK, I’m dumb, confused, or mistaken. Post 822 isn’t by you, it’s by fluiddruid. If he/she said something that you were going to say, re-say it now so dummies like me can understand.

fluiddruid’s post 822

Sorry, 882.
:smack:

[DaphneBlack]

I’ve done a mini-analysis of levels of suspicion that players have received, coupled with their level of posting (for organisational purposes, and also on the theory that scum wil post varying amounts between them). These are all my impressions, and can be argued with. Why am I doing this now? I want to think about something other than the Seeker debacle. There are other scum out there, after all.

Of the highest level of posting (from about 60 posts on up), those who have received medium to high levels of suspicion are:
DaphneBlack (highest posting level), Telcontar, Seeker, and the late lamented Freudian

Oredigger is an interesting case: he’s gotten heat for a lot of his ideas but very few attacks on him for scumminess (at least until very recently)

little or no suspicion:
Mahaloth, rexnervous
Of the lower levels of posting:
Medium suspicion:
MHaye (including Lemur, highest posting level in the ‘low group’), and the two lurkiest posters Zeriel and Elendil

Little or no suspicion:
AllWalker, [Undecided] Adrian, Jimmy Chitwood, Justin Credible, fluiddruid

These data may or may not be useful to anyone else. They are interesting to me.

I think all the posters in the last group in particular need to be looked at more closely: they have been posting a certain medium amount, and have received a very minimal amount of suspicion from others. My impression is also that they are not contributing a tonne of original content (although I would say fluid’s been pretty willing to state her opinion and stick with it).
I have looked thru Adrian’s posts, and one thing that popped out at me was that he was referring to himself as ‘Invisible Man’, acting a bit peeved that he wasn’t being noticed w/r/t his feelings about fluid. But he didn’t really pursue that case any further. In other words, he seems to have been living up to his name rather well.

On preview: Telcontar makes a good point about the difference between ‘a lot of people find x suspicious’ and ‘i (should) find x suspicious’. I think one thing that this mini-analysis shows is that outliers (top-level posters, lurky posters) are much more likely to gain suspicion. That is unrelated, to some extent, with suspicious behaviour. I seriously doubt all of the scum are in the outliers. Mid-rangers need to receive scrutiny or we are going to lose.

[Seeker_of_Truth_and_Beauty]

@Telcontar

It would be helpful, if not all that much so, if someone could confirm or deny that seeker was a farmer. Anyone in a position to do that?
<snip>

I can 100% confirm that I am a Farmer. (I have to go look to confirm whether or not I can quote my Role PM. If so, it’ll be here in a few minutes. If not, well, not.)

@Telcontar

You’re joking, though you don’t realize it. I think people are beginning to wake up to the difference between “a lot of people seem to find so and so suspicious” and “I should find so and so suspicious.” A lot of people find me suspicious, that is true. It is also true that they have jack reason to. If seeker is a wolf, we have good reason to be suspicious of you because you’re arguing to spare him despite pretty substantial reason not to. Doesn’t mean we should automatically assume that we’re right, but we should be suspicious.

A lot of people suddenly find me suspicious, too. What’s your point?

[AllWalker]

I was right - this is a clusterfuck move by Seeker, though he is claiming protown motivation.

But look at the results: his confession/withdrawal has scattered the votes. Oredigger is looking a lot more suspicious to some people, splitting focus off Telcontar. Just when the Day was becoming clear cut…

I don’t know. The only way to make sense of the clusterfuck is to determine Seeker’s position, whether his intentions really were pro or antitown. At the risk of siding with the minority, I see the logic with what Oredigger is saying, but really I just want to get to the bottom of this…

I hate how it feels like I’m being played, though.

Swing, Seeker, swing

on preview:

@Daphne

Little or no suspicion:
AllWalker, [Undecided] Adrian, Jimmy Chitwood, Justin Credible, fluiddruid

These data may or may not be useful to anyone else.

It’s helpful to wolves. The wouldn’t Nightkill someone suspicious, would they? Damn it if one of these people dies toNight, and double damn it if it’s me.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Careful about cause and effect there, though, Daphne. If people kept calling me a werewolf I’d have to post more too.

[Justin_Credible]

What an exciting day. Too bad I was asleep for most of it.

It looks like Seeker is the best choice for toDay’s lynch. I’m going to go back and re-read all of today’s activity, but for now I just can’t see any other viable option. His posts today do read more like a risky scum play than anything else. I do think it’s possible, and even quite likely, that Telcontar is indeed town, and that Seeker decided to do all this to make it look like he was trying to draw heat away from him. I guess his reasoning would be that even if he (Seeker) does go down, at least he would be setting Telcontar (a townie) up for lynching Tomorrow. From that perspective, that play doesn’t seem so insane.

I’m also going to have to seriously study Oredigger77’s posts from today. If Seeker does come up wolf, then I think he should be the next person we look at.

lynch Seeker of Truth and Beauty

[Telcontar]

@AllWalker

It’s helpful to wolves. The wouldn’t Nightkill someone suspicious, would they? Damn it if one of these people dies toNight, and double damn it if it’s me.

Don’t worry, I find you suspicious :). Very suspicious. Where were you on the night of the 3rd, hmmm? Why is there blood on your shirt?

More seriously: I think the wolf kill tonight will be very informative. i could say what I might expect etc but I’m reasonably confident that they won’t kill me.

[Seeker_of_Truth_and_Beauty]

@Telcontar

Don’t worry, I find you suspicious :). Very suspicious. Where were you on the night of the 3rd, hmmm? Why is there blood on your shirt?

More seriously: I think the wolf kill tonight will be very informative. i could say what I might expect etc but I’m reasonably confident that they won’t kill me.

Because you’re ONE OF THEM!!! :dubious:

[DaphneBlack]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

Careful about cause and effect there, though, Daphne. If people kept calling me a werewolf I’d have to post more too.

Of course. But there are people with fewer who have been accused and many more posts than you who haven’t.

AllWalker, I don’t think the wolves are unaware of who the most suspicious people are! You’re right, they probably won’t nightkill them. They aren’t stupid (at least, not collectively). But it’s not like I was revealing secret information that the wolves were unaware of.

[Telcontar]

@Seeker_of_Truth_and_Beauty

Because you’re ONE OF THEM!!! :dubious:

@DaphneBlack

Of course. But there are people with fewer who have been accused and many more posts than you who haven’t.

AllWalker, I don’t think the wolves are unaware of who the most suspicious people are! You’re right, they probably won’t nightkill them. They aren’t stupid (at least, not collectively). But it’s not like I was revealing secret information that the wolves were unaware of.

Well, it would be best if we didn’t all give the wolves a rank order to work off of. If the default wolf strategy is kill the most innocent looking it would be nice if we didn’t give them objective evidence of who that was. I rather like your list, though not because I think it’s accurate. More after we see what happens.

[DaphneBlack]

I don’t think those who have garnered the least suspicion are necessarily the most innocent looking. But I guess that’s the point of contention.

Were Scuba and Ichini super-innocent seeming? I think Ichini at least had some suspicion.