Here’s the deal. If you’re a townie there is no reason to claim “bad guy”, period unless one of the following two conditions are true:
I believe that rexnervous was referring to the spelling of toMarrow, not the capitalization.
Also, we have a disagreement over Telcontar’s style, for lack of a better word. Part of being aggressive, I think, would be to take statements and questions head on. When people disagree with Telcontar, for the most part, it seems to me that he says “You’re wrong, whatever,” and moves on. He’s misrepresenting, as rexnervous says, what’s being said around and about him, which is a particular kind of passive-aggression that doesn’t speak well to his motivation, I don’t think. It’s politics.
Is it bad form to talk about my reasons for initially voting for Telcontar even though I still think Seeker is the most likely wolf? I think it’s important to have the discussion.
Just to flesh that point out a bit more: what I mean is that Telcontar’s combination of in-your-face posting with obliqueness is suspicious to me. Disguising a brush-off with an air of arrogance seems like a good way to evade.
Hey guys, I have something I forgot about 4:00 Friday EST, so the day will end, again, Noon Friday EST.
See, Telcontar pings my radar as well, and I voted for him once already(I changed it later). Anyway, do you have any examples of him brushing-off anyone?
Everytime I think I’m going to vote to test/lynch him, I have a hard time describing what it is that makes me think he’s a wolf or finding examples.
The spelling is me not knowing how to spell. I type it up in word but with their weird capitalization the spell checker freaks out so that one keeps being missed. In short I’m an idiot.
I don’t have much patience for fools, that is true. I was/am really annoyed about the no-lynch argument; it was silly and people were making arguments that were simply false empirically. I expected better. I also expected some of the veteran players to chime in and point out that i was right; as people are finally acknowledging today, not lynching is going to be in the town’s interest one of these days. Not saying anything while I almost get lynched for bad reasons is anti town (paging Zeriel). I only started telling people to f off once it was clear that logic wasn’t persuading anyone.
Other than that, I don’t think I’ve been any more forceful in my play than anyone else. I’ve certainly answered every time someone has asked me to explain a vote or a suspicion (502 for example http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=10863879&postcount=502 ). If someone has a case against me, let them state it. Simply saying you don’t like my attitude is fairly insubstantial, especially since my attitude was provoked.
I don’t have any suspicions that can be productively discussed until we’ve resolved seeker.
Telcontar, the maths is not the issue. I now see what you were getting at, game-theory-wise (even if I didn’t straight away), but I grew concerned over your insistance that we skip the lynch Day 1. So you are right, we can afford not to lynch on a certain Day, but the first lynch is always going to be random. Stalling at the start helps us none - stalling later might help us more.
I don’t like the way this game is going. If Seeker turns up innocent, then the numbers start looking really bad. The wolves have so far been some combination of clever and lucky, and it’s starting to get under my skin.
We have to hit this time, we really do. If we miss, we need to start rethinking our strategies.
I know, and I have doubts about Seeker being a wolf. I mean, what wolf would be so dumb? Like I said a few posts ago, Seeker is either a dumb wolf or a dumb townie(uh…no offense, Seeker).
I am starting to think he’s a dumb townie. However, the lynch has been moved to 12 noon tomorrow and I don’t have an adequate suggestion for another lynchee. By adequate suggestion, I mean a suggestion that has enough evidence to turn over all the votes(except for that one).
Of course, if Seeker is a wolf and we don’t kill him, we’re going to look like idiots. it will be known as the game where “a scum revealed itself and still lived”
The question(s) become these:
If Seeker is a townie, what are our future scenarios? How badly hurt are we? Do we have anything better than a guess for an alternative lynch?
You will not find a single veteran player of these games around here who will agree that the right play on Day 1 is no lynch except in very unusual circumstances.
The only time to consider No Lynch is when the lack of a kill nets you an extra Day’s discussion and there is no real prospect of the Werewolves suffering a failure of a kill for other reasons.
The issue is not the numbers that you presented (which I haven’t reviewed carefully), it is the loss of the information you derive from the Day 1 lynch later in the game. By forcing a lynch, you make people take up positions that can be examined later for unsupported shifts away.
While I’ve escaped from Munchkinland briefly, let’s place a vote.
Vote Seeker of Truth and Beauty.
I will be very very disappointed if Seeker turns out to be a rancher.
If we kill Seeker and he’s a townie, we’ll be at 9-4 (8-4 after the nightkill). One more mislynch would put us at 6-4 and Lynch or Lose.
I don’t know if we have anything better than a guess, but I would really strongly consider looking at those who have up to now received no scrutiny at all (I listed who I thought that was on my list). I also think MHaye’s potential ‘slip’ is possibly something, but that’s the only thing he’s said (or that Lemur said) which pinged me.
MHaye, you do know Seeker claimed Farmer, right? Why do you say you’ll be disappointed if he turns up rancher?
In response to this and Telcontar’s response, what follows is a pretty thorough recap of what Telcontar has said so far and the context in which it was said. I want to preface it by saying that it wasn’t put together with an agenda, so it includes some things that point one direction, some that point in another, and a lot that arguably don’t point at all. It is my honest effort to catalog what’s happened thus far, which I think I’m obligated to do because, especially on reread, I see that I’ve pretty much been questioning him from the start.
Here’s a thought I am just throwing out there - perhaps we should look at people who attract little suspicion, but who also post a lot. These people are being vocal yet somehow avoiding attention, and so it might be worth looking into.
Here’s what I have:
Mahaloth - 2nd in post count (excluding pedescribe) but not accused of much
rexnervous - 4th in post count, not accused of much
Oredigger - 7th in post count, not accused of much
Jimmy and AllWalker - tied 8th, not accused of much
After that we have [Undecided] Adrian and JC, respectively, who have not been accused of much.
People who attract suspicion might post a lot in the first place, and then have to post more in order to argue their case. But there seems to be a lot of moderate to heavy posters who are flying under everyone’s radars. Perhaps this needs addressing?
First meaningful post is an accusation against Daphne, to which she responds:
Telcontar does not respond directly– he posts an hour later and says something about Freudian Slit, and says Daphne is “generating a lot of dissension” while still saying she’s the most suspicious poster.
In post #309 , Zeriel posts a long post about the math behind no-lynch (which math I’m totally not getting into at all in this post because I think it’s a dead issue and confuses the analysis) and Telcontar says not much:
#342 Scuba Ben says the players to watch are Daphne, Telcontar, Seeker, and Lemur He then gets eaten.
Immediately after he is eaten, Telcontar is the first to post (#445):
#466, after Justin Credible brings up the list of “posters to watch,” Telcontar disagrees that it is significant and gets back after Daphne:
Then yr. humble narrator says that seems fishy in post 469 and asks for more:
Telcontar does not respond at this time.
Then AllWalker brings up the same kinds of points and Mahaloth joins in, so **Telcontar **responds, #502:
Next he posts a wikipedia article about gamesmanship to show Daphne what he means by accusing her of same. Daphne says what are you talking about, what did I do?
Telcontar doesn’t answer Daphne, but posts an hour later to ask a question that has the effect of encouraging the whole wolves can be farmers/ranchers discussion to continue (#510), then says he thinks that it’s a non-issue and ends on a familiar note, saying the only thing Seeker has done wrong is be suspicious of Daphne.
Then, in post 536, when he is tied for the lead to be tested, he switches votes from Daphne to Freudian, and I ask him about it - if you suspect Daphne primarily, why switch to another person in fear of werewolf vote-wrangling? He responds in detail, post 563:
Next serious action: 21 minutes before the testerizer results come in, which is post 602, he then unvotes Freudian with no discussion– so he ends up with no vote at all for the testerizer after breaking the tie originally in favor of Freudian’s test – he explains that it was strategic and he was taking a “wait and see” approach, and that he was mistaken about the time the test would go through (10 AM vs. 10 PM, which confusion he did cop to in advance, so don’t read this as me saying it was feigned).
post 652 and later 706 and 707 – Ichini, who will later be eaten, says he is certain Seeker and/or Telcontar are wolves.
In post 682 poor, soon to be dead **Freudian Slit **posts a long review of Telcontar’s posts
In response to all of this, post 711 by Telcontar says Ichini is bad at the game and calls it a paranoid rant (and explains more about his perspective on the no-lynch thing).
Then an argument about the no-lynch thing for a while – involved parties are Adrian and fluiddruid
Then AllWalker accuses Telcontar and calls him pendo, which I don’t know what that means.
Then Ichini in #723 asks Telcontar how his case is weak against other players.
Then young heroic Ichini is devoured by the ravening mongrels.
**
Telcontar** never responds to the last question, perhaps because his audience has been, er, scattered, but again in response to a suggestion ( by Oredigger, #769) that the last accusation made by the departed is significant, he says that’s not very likely.
#775 is another post by Telcontar basically saying “I’m not responding to this kind of argument” because he’s getting tired of talking about his earlier no-lynch points. He’s also kind of mean to Daphne.
In post #795 he does not respond to further accusations (Adrian, Mahaloth, Justin Credible, but makes some of his own – against Zeriel and Elendil’s Heir.
AllWalker asks him a direct question in #797 about a point T had made regarding rancher/farmer balance, but receives no answer.
Post #830 Telcontar says
Enter then the Seeker clusterfuck, and we’re up to date.
Yeah, I haven’t drawn a lot of fire for some reason. I’ve tried to be straight forward and aside from a few goofy statements, I think my posts have not been scummy. If someone wants to accuse me, please base it on something more than me not attracting accusations.
If somehow has a good reason to think me of scum, let me know. But please don’t wait until tomorrow(small t) at 11:00 a.m. I can’t be expected to defend myself adequately at the last second.
I hope the wolves aren’t primarily made of quasi-lurkers. That’d be a disappointing way to lose(assuming we never lynch them).
Fuck.
You wouldn’t believe how long I formatted and previewed, and I still screwed up the first quote and divided it wrong. It should read like this:
I agree, AllWalker, as I believe I’ve said several times. I think Oredigger has, as I said, been very vocal and throwing out a lot of ideas which have gotten heat. We’ve mostly let him slide on that, on the principle that bad/unpopular ideas are not necessarily scummy (whilst Telcontar has attracted heat for his one bad idea). But I’m having second thoughts with him at this point.
Rex, Mahaloth, [Undecided] Adrian, and Justin seem to have avoided taking a controversial or loud position on anything. I’m more suspicious of the last two than the first two, mainly due to their place so squarely mid-range. Any of these should be examined more carefully (I looked at Adrian yesterday, and was pinged, as I said, by his seeming insistence that he was invisible but no steps seemed to be taken to really correct that by him).
Jimmy and AllWalker I’m not sure of. They’ve been pretyt helpful but rarely gotten into controversy (though I see Jimmy is taking up arms against Telcontar).
So of this group, the two biggest pings I’ve had are Oredigger (but I can’t really back that up at this point) and Adrian (which I think can be better documented, but is not exactly a lot to go on).
Jimmy, thanks for that recap.
It gets to a lot of what I have said, but is much more articulate than I have been!
His ever-lasting suspicion of me could go either way. I’ve seen it done by town and by scum (usually with a lot of success). His ‘being mean’ to me and others goes to what I’ve been saying about tone, but again I don’t know that it is scummy – what it is is controlling. He accused me of trying to ‘dominate’ the discussion, but I think he’s been trying to control it, by refusing to answer and by his over-confident tone at times. It is very scummy not to answer question directly asked, especially when asked multiple times.
I keep going back and forth on this, which I guess is the curse of mafia.
Mahaloth, I looked back over your posts yesterday and nothing particularly scummy or townie really jumped out at me. who are your top suspects at the moment, other than Seeker or Telcontar?
That’s the crux of it, I think. How many werewolf points does one get for being kind of irritable? I would go so far as to say none at all, except in the event that one’s irritability serves as a screen for a failure to really address criticism. In Telcontar’s defense is the point that, well, the questions maybe weren’t very pointed ones, or were non-starters, or at least Telcontar thought they were non-starters, and why should he have to entertain them when he’s got serious wolf-hunting to do (which I think is a fair assessment of his stance).
But courtesy isn’t really the issue when the point of a question isn’t personal edification, it’s to try to play the game. I think it’s fair to say that several times Telcontar has handwaved direct questions or direct arguments aimed at himself, and that – not the demeanor which accompanied the handwaving – is an approach that hurts the town in general.