Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split [Signups--In progress]

The Game Room
1201

Sigh. I’m getting rather tired of this game. Also of people’s inability to do basic math. Fluidruid’s post is simply wrong. Entirely independent of whether lynchings are at random the current situation dictates that the town should pass on killing one night. this assumes the following:
1.) The wolves can and do kill every night.
2.) The town only has the option of one kill per day.
3.) No special powers affect the body count.
Those are the only required assumptions, none of which fluiddruid contests. I don’t think it’s suspicious that (s)he’s wrong, but that’s that. Since I’m going to be lynched this week, thus robbing you of your last mistake, you might want to follow my logic and take tomorrow off.

Zeriel, the only thing we disagree on is which day not to lynch. this is silly. You’ve been desperately trying to kill me for that since day 1. Can you lay off? You never even made that a strong case for waiting until the end. You’re either the most innocent person on the board or the most suspicious, depending on how much we trust ped’s game balancing. A bit more of this and I’ll be on board with “not much.” By focusing on two targets for such petty reasons you’ve effectively insulated yourself from the game, not good.

Lynch Day
We have no idea who to kill and most players are not participating in the discussion. **rexnervous’**s plan is nice…but only if we trust his assignments (which we might as well) and overlook the convenient fact that a full third of the players are actively trying to disrupt the game. Consensus is evil here. the only times we can all agree is when four wolves are right and 8 townies are wrong, or when something is so blindingly clear that the wolves can’t be seen as against it.

1202

Mahaloth

Pre-impressions: neutral.

Early posts consist of a fairly high amount of fluff/newbie questions. Involvement in werewolf f/r discussion. Asks for summary of cases against FS and Seeker (570). Expresses regret about lynching FS, but still votes for her (not alone in that!). Responds to Tel’s challenge that she has to see if FS is lying. Still asking newbie q day two (on when night begins) and day three (on what a cop is). Suggests the wolves have a cop. Suggests Zeriel is suspicious in response to my q on lower-volume posters. Supports the idea that wolves would kill someone who was openly suspicious of them. Suggests that she is not a fluffy poster, that she is only perceived as such (817). Heavy going in discussion with wacky Seeker claim. Expresses doubt Seeker is a wolf (continues to vote for him). Expresses surprise that she hasn’t drawn suspicion. Denies having major suspects at this point (983). Votes Telcontar (whom she has suspected for several days). Pushes Zeriel on revealing investigation targets. Discussion of voting strategy. Asks Rex/MHaye to switch votes if willing. Wonders why people suspect EH (1158). Assesses rex (as townie) and Zeriel (as townie because they both suspect Telcontar).

Impressions: a high volume poster with significant levels of fluff, much of which is newbie questions. Has taken some positions and pushed at players, but not with votes. I think the reason she hasn’t been suspected is clear on re-read; she has not aggressively attacked other players. She has a few scummy behaviours, such as doubting a lynch but voting for it anyway, claiming to have no suspects, and assessing Zeriel is townie because they agree on suspicion (which could be more newbie than scummy) and some townie behaviours (responsive to questions, pursues answers when not satisfied, suggesting some relatively new ideas (such as that scum might kill someone who was suspicious of them).

Summary: the definition of ‘under-the-radar’. Very friendly poster – could be misleadingly so. If scum, has done well as a newbie not to make a major slip. If town, somewhat cautious and a bit fluffy. Lean slightly town, but could be clever scum.

1203

Daphne, any particular reason you suspect me over Mahaloth?

1204

Shit! I haven’t voted.

Vote Oredigger

I have already given my reasons, and the green in Tel’s test code is the only thing even vaguely resembling usefulness that thing has given us.

1205

Telcontar (3): Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood
Elendil’s Heir (2): rexnervous, Oredigger77
Oredigger77 (2): Fluiddruid, Allwalker
Justin Credible (1): DaphneBlack
MHaye (1): Zeriel
DaphneBlack (1): Elendil’s Heir

…what?

1206

My second analysis:

Jimmy C

defended Daphne on a few occasions of Day 1 - then voted for Tel on Day 2 for still accusing Daphne

post 555 lists suspects

By this stage seems to be pro-Daphne, anti-Oredigger - Daphne appears not to share the sentiment (771). Oredigger does, though (804)

Promises to post more 823 - does this with list of suspects (826). List no longer includes Oredigger, still doesn’t include Daphne though.

Decided not to vote for Seeker post-clusterfuck, under the explanation that Seeker can no longer swing any votes. Then changes his mind again, votes Seeker.

Long case against Tel, 975

Opposed to this analysis, 1191 - so sorry for this, Jimmy

Overall summary: A partially reformed lurker, now 9th in post count. Posted heavily in testeriser talk, general strategies and the clusterfuck period. Exceptions include a few posts listing suspects and a recent sustained focus on Tel.

Conclusion: has a number of scummy points - low post count and initially non-confrontational, but recently became vocal against a widely targeted player. Posts are mainly helpful but inconsequential, filling up an already low post count with testeriser talk and clusterfuck analysis.

Verdict: leaning towards wolf. Maybe 60/40

And there you have it.

1207

Why would it? Other townies do not have a green result.

1208

**Telcontar **review

One of the more interesting things is Tel’s willingness to make assertive statements.

Volunteered to be tested (knowing lynching was an extreme possibility) Day 1. This post comes with the explicit caveat that anyone volunteering is likely to be a townie, which he follows up with here

Even before that, in his confirmation post, claimed townie. This is probably just a joke post.

Then comes the infamous no-lynch post. Not going to rehash.

He’s very vocal on theory (see prior stated posts above, and here).
Day 2 makes the first post (that I saw) that people should declare alignment/role prior to being tested, if they are the testee. He did back up his words with action when it came time for him to be tested.

Suspects/Conversations/Votes

We all know Tel’s very willing to defend his posts, so not going to go thru those again. However

One of the first to suspect Daphne, here, though granted it’s day 1 and no one has any real clue. But voted for testing **Daphne **while the november situation was being discussed.

What’s interesting hereis that he suspects **Daphne **for creating a lot of noise/dissension, but remember he does virtually the same thing throughout the game. High post count, contentious.

Day 2 again votesDaphne for testing. Changes vote to **Freudian **to break tie.

He also defendssomeone (Seeker, who we know now is town) who was suspecting Daphne.

UnvotesFreudian for a really weird reasonjust minutes before Testerizer. But I can’t make head or tails of that so take his explanation at face value

Day 3 was a friggin’ mess. It is important to note that there were many people thinking **Tel **was suspicious because of Seeker being a wolf - which we now know wasn’t the case.

Day 4, wentafter Zeriel. Fair enough, so did I and others. But also later says that Zeriel is most likely innocent - basically, saying that Zeriel’s playstyle is suspicious, but logically given info we know is probably innocent.

Testerizer

I mentioned this earlier but I think it’s important to note - based on available information, Telcontar’s Testerizer reading is as a townie.

FINAL READING

On re-reading my own post I realized that I probably (due to lack of time) focused more on the early days than later. That’s also the period of time where Tel’s “aggressive” style of posting jumped out more. I feel that **Tel **got noticed and became suspicious to many people (myself included) as much for his style as for anything he said.

I’m also surprised at how often I have agreed with him, especially in later days.

I can make nothing of his votes.

If I look at what I’ve seen logically, I get no read at all, or even slightly town. But intuitively, for whatever reason, he’s still pinging my radar. But intuition can be a very bad thing right now (you’ll notice I’m not voting for him for lynching).

1209

November was Green / Red

1210

Well, november had RED and Green but this green came in a different place. I don’t think a single repeating color means jack and shouldn’t be counted for or against Tel.

I haven’t had time to do my rereads but I want to try and push one more time for not lynching Tel. He has consistently been near the top of the scum list from pretty much everyone but there have never been any clear actions to save him unless you count Seeker. I don’t think that he is necessarily town but I think there is something else going on with him.

EH has pinged me since my reread of him but with a neat combination of lurking and popping in to agree or vote without reason has stayed off everyone’s radar. I think this is a good place to go hunting. At this point of the dame with one day and one Day remaining at worst we need to give up on figuring out the testerizer and just hunt scum. EH has a lot more scum traits then Tel.

1211

Lynching the day, rather than lynching a player (ie go to night/no lynch).

I certainly appreciate your conclusion :).

I think it’s worth noting that my testerizer result isn’t really all that clear. Yes both november and I had GREEN in our test, but without knowing the decision rule we have to take that as a very weak signal (especially given the apparent randomness of the seeker and FS results).

It looks like there may not be time for people to get on board with no-lynch and I’d really rather not die, if it’s all the same to everyone else. The most likely alternative in terms of me not dying is Elendil’s Heir…but he was never a top target. Justin pings a little me more on a gut level…then there’s my old nemesis Oredigger77 who is also at 2 but who I was never all that dead set against.

The one tell I have is that **Elendil **refused to vote for either Oredigger77 or myself for the testing (forcing my test as an outcome). I don’t buy his explanation for why; even indifference should have dictated voting to prevent others from gaming it. It could be that was a bad play. It could be that EH wanted to support Oredigger77 quietly. Not sure, but it’s all I’ve really got at this point.
unLynch Day
Lynch Elendil’s Heir

The JC’s are pinging me. we should probably look at them again tomorrow. I liked Allwalker’s post, though I’m not entirely sure I agree.

1212

Very busy at work. I will try to post some thoughts before noon; isn’t’ that when the actual lynch occurs(EST)?

1213

We have one hour left, and a mess of a vote, including a tie.

I want to point out something.

**MHaye **has yet to post either a review of anyone, or more importantly a vote. **MHaye **is also the one who spent the time to dispute the methodology (with validity I might add) of my proposed review scheme, and propose a new one, but hasn’t subsequently reviewed or voted.

**MHaye **on a very quick skim has been frequently if not always one of the very last to vote. Voted at fairly last minute to test **Zeriel **on what basically was a smudge.

Was one of the last to vote for Freudian Slit.

I make no accusations, just pointing out patterns.

1214

Justin, on balance, you had more scumminess to less towniness than Mahaloth. This is partially due to your much lower post count which places you in semi-lurker status, which is one of the best places for scum to hide. I don’t find Mahaloth totally innocent, but she reads to be as enthusiastic newbie town or as really very clever scum, whereas you just read to be me as scum. I don’t see a townie motivation for posting the way you have.

On MHaye: data point only, he has been a late voter in just about every game he’s played, scum or town.

1215

You can’t draw any conclusion about whether Telcontar is a Townsperson from the fact that the Testerizer produced a green result for him, as it did for a known Townsperson (November).

For a reminder, here are the Texterizer results to date.

Day 1 November : Green / Red - Town Farmer
Day 2 Freudian Slit : Aqua / Teal - Town Rancher
Day 3 Seeker of T&B : Black / Purple - Town Farmer

I’ve made and discarded about three hypotheses regarding the Testerizer (order of appearance of colour, length of the words, number of vowels in the words). They’ve all been disproved simply by the results of the lynches.

I’m more worried right now about the vote situation than completing my review of Justin Credible, since there is so little time to the lynch. Back soon.

1216

Fiar comment, but if you read other games, you will see I am (a) a low-volume poster, (b) usually late to votre because I do not subscribe to the view that votes are like confetti, and (c) take a long while to develop thoughts.

You only have to look as far back as Evil Dead to see what happens when I’m forced to work too fast.

You’ll get used to me - or lynch me and find that I was on your side after all.

I’m concerned about the vote situation as well, which is why right now I’m concentrating on who to vote for lynch Today; since neither of my assessment subjects are up for lynch right now, we can survive without my views.

1217

Alright fellow townies, and scummy wolves - I’ll be offline until after vote.

To whomever we lynch, if you were a townie, you’ll be sorely missed and we’ll tip a glass to ya. If a wolf, then ha! we got ya, scummy scum.

Will be will interesting to see whom the wolves kill as well, no doubt.

1218

Folks, I realize we’re short on time, so I thought I’d post my notes so far. I don’t feel it’s fair to make any conclusions since I haven’t gone through everything. Hope they may be helpful but perhaps we should consider putting this in sooner in the Day next time.

Telcontar
Day 1:

Notably, Telcontar volunteers to be tested in the Testerizer. Explains (in next post) that Werewolves would not want to be tested.
Then, recommends creating a pool of living tested individuals and advocates no-lynch for a numerical advantage. When questioned by Zeriel about this (why the first night, “Skipping it early just front-loads the “cost”, in information, to the town.”), he says, “That is true, which is why i wasn’t going to keep pressing the point” and explains a lucky Testerizer ID in days 1 and 2 could be an advantage.

Agrees to test November, “I’m a little torn on the count given than my top suspicion is DaphneBlack, but i’m willing to go with it on Day 1.”

Responding to FS (who asked why Daphne is gathering suspicion), Telcontar says he suspects her too, because of her high level of talk (“Mafia tend to look different than other players”). Begins to criticize november vote, on the grounds that the vote should be more contentious if a wolf. Later rescinds test vote for november, votes test daphne (no explanation in that post other than to not vote a sub).

EH
Asked simple question (how many werewolves). Fluff. Votes test Telcontar and lynch november (no explanation).

1219

I really don’t think we should lynch Telcontar today. It looks like no one is interested in Justin toDay, unfortunately. I also must be off soon, and I will be travelling and busy for the next few days, so I apologise if I don’t post between now and shortly before the testeriser deadine toMorrow, asumming the wolves don’t choose me as their victim.

We currently have a tie, if I am correct in my understanding of the vote count. This is bad.

I will
unvote Justin Credible
vote Elendil’s Heir

He is still one of my top suspects.

1220

Here’s my analysis of rexnervous, who’s the second-highest player poster (105 posts) after DaphneBlack (with 135). Sorry for the delay.

he asked a lot of questions early on (posts 68, 95, 117, 139, 209), including asking if players could vote to test or lynch themselves (76). Emphasized that it was his first mafia game (130, 690, 1036). Went with the flow on testing or lynching November (210). Observed that Daphne was “creating the most dissension” (236) and was critical of her (473). Stood by his vote for November (236, 243, 321).

Sought tactical advice (353, 367, 798). Some fluff posts, including drink recipes (414, 748). Worked on Google spreadsheet (449, 450, 637, 760). Speculated about Telcontar and me (473), but voted to test Freudian Slit (473). Doubted the Testerizer’s usefulness (642, 954). Again dubious of Telcontar (678), and Zeriel (678, 679). Suspicious again about Telcontar, but also Daphne, SOTB, Zeriel again, and me (828), before voting to test Telcontar (828). Wonders about lurkers and speculates about Jimmy Chitwood, fluiddruid, Zeriel again, and me (855).

Goes on vacation and post irregularly in early March. Downplays SOTB as scum, but still suspicious of Telcontar (954). Wonders about not lynching anyone (954, 955, 1200). Voted for me (985) without explanation, which Mahaloth asks about in the following post (986). Suspicious of Telcontar yet again, but also asks about Zeriel again and the power role (1059), and later accuses of Zeriel of being “very anti-town” (1086).

Votes to test me again (1109). Votes to untest me to avert a tie, goes instead for Telcontar, but says “there are far more suspicious people (at least a couple) that we should have gone for” (1144). Again suspects Zeriel (1169).

Reviews fluiddruid, concluding “can’t really tell, but I’m leaning town” (1188). Reviews Telcontar, ending with “no read at all, or even slightly town” (1208). Suspicious of MHaye (1213).

My read on him:
rexnervous is a particularly active player who has, with only a few gaps, been fully engaged in the game all along. He has been chronically suspicious of Telcontar and, more recently, Zeriel and me. He seems eager to appear helpful and pro-town and his voting does not particularly stand out. I would say town, but have a little residual suspicion of him.

I hope to post re: MHaye soon, but I’m at work and might not be able to get to it by the deadline.