EH had a lot of suspicion being cast on him since Day 3. Voting for EH might be a wolf ploy to create the air of innocence, at the expense of a wolf who wasn’t long for this world.
In Day 3, EH started pinging people’s radars. Before that, he went generally unnoticed. A few people noted a few odd behaviour points - like on Day 1 when he voted to test and lynch different people in the one post, Zeriel (215) called him on it. I questioned it two posts later.
On Day 2, Jimmy (555) points out EH’s lurking, as part of a list of suspicions. FS, who we know is innocent, reacted badly to EH test/lynch post (595).
During these first Days he voted inconspicuously with the crowd. Only when people start to seriously suspect him in Day 3 does he try to make an impact.
NETA: Oh, and my condolences to the friends and family of Daphne. She will be missed.
The thing is, though, her death tells us little - she questioned, interrogated and accused 2/3 of the town. She almost certainly picked on a wolf at some point. The other thing is, though, she was driving the town’s discussions - without her, the town might lose the “force” it once had.
So in conclusion, in order to avenge and respect the late Daphne, we need to, collectively, not allow the post count or discussions die down.
First, those of you who switched votes, good on you. In retrospect it seems like an obvious call that should have been made earlier, and you few deserve credit for making it (although perhaps not as much as you’re claiming in terms of assuming every EH vote was a Town vote, as that really only makes sense if you know that the other votes were for Town players, which how would you know?).
We’ve got a chance here; things are moving rapidly in our favor. Let’s not get our heads up our asses (and I’ll return to this point at the end of the post).
Moving on:
Hopefully in the spirit in which the analysis was conducted, I think there are a few points here which are misrepresentations and I’d like to respond even though it’s a bit stale at this point. It won’t do for me to call out others for ignoring the case against them if I don’t hold to the same standard.
First, your summary is strange in light of what follows it - I posted heavily talking about the testerizer at the beginning, about the Seeker debacle when it was a borderline Town crisis, and about general strategy throughout… except when I listed suspects and when I tried to build the best case I could against my main subject of distrust. I feel like that’s pretty much how the game is played, no? General strategy, except when it’s specific?
Second, that number of scummy points: non-confrontational is tough to quantify so I’ll grant that, I guess, but my “vocalness against a widely targeted player” has been consistent and I was among the first to get to that conclusion. I think it’s a borderline smudge to frame it the way you have - that I lurked in the shadows until a consensus emerged, and then came out guns a-blazing; that is pretty clearly an anti-Town behavior, but it isn’t what I did. If you knew Telcontar was town, I’d grant at least that my suspicions would then be “scummy points,” but what the hell, I had my suspicions and I articulated them, and I’m still not convinced I was wrong. The test result was at least 50% encouraging, but there’s a lot that’s discouraging. Just doesn’t seem like there’s much to complain about in terms of what I’ve been attempting to do.
Finally, I didn’t object to the analysis as such. I said I was cool with it as long as we all acknowledged that it was manipulable. Different thing, and another point that a casual reading of your post would easily misconstrue. Add it all up and what’s there to put me at 60/40? There’s not much there for me to defend my reasoning on, just the conclusion. Maybe the low post count that you and others keep mentioning, but I’ll continue to argue that that’s a pretty horrible metric if you don’t take the weight of each post into account. I don’t tend to have five minutes every three hours, so I post in large chunks. I’m still on the record, yet you don’t really seem to be challenging the record.
Anyway, like I said, I’m not impugning your motives or anything - I appreciate the effort. Hopefully I can clear up some of that 60/40 business and the “pinging” I’m hearing about!
(End navel-gazing)
rexnervous - I think I have some idea where you’re going with the numbers. Telcontar, what I’m about to say also applies to this bit of your post:
One thing that I would stress as a general matter – rexnervous you’ll have to bear with me if I’m misreading where you’re going – is that we got our only wolf by taking everything into account at once, at not by limiting ourselves unduly to a particular line of thinking. In other words, our flexibility and the four players’ late action in going after EH was the only thing that’s actually worked so far. And so shifting the bulk of our focus in one direction or another (or taking more drastic action based on how our assumptions about the numbers work out) is a good premise, but not a great thing to announce as policy.
How sure are you that the wolves are among that group, you know? Maybe one is, maybe two are, maybe all three are, but what if they aren’t? Assuming that the wolves screwed the pooch and acting on that assumption is a potential disaster if they didn’t. Maybe Elendil’s Heir posted at 12:01 with something in mind - maybe it was supposed to look like he wanted Telcontar dead but just missed out. Or maybe the wolves, knowing that Town can afford very few mistakes, sacrificed Elendil’s Heir to throw off the next couple of days’ analysis, and so those who could have saved him didn’t save him. If that’s the case, then assuming that those who didn’t save him even though they could have should get a free pass might give them just enough of a head start.
So what I’m hoping for here is that whatever approach we take to the discussion, nothing is sacred. I think suggestions that we all look in a general direction, or focus on this group of three or that group of five, are too easily jerked around. Poke everybody, is what I say.
In that vein, MHaye and Zeriel - any suspicions of late? I’ve noticed that between the two of you there’s been a lot of back and forth, and a lot of talk about rancher and farmer status, regardless of whether it’s town or wolf… isn’t it about time that you each broadened your focus to someone besides each other early in the day, or at least talked about someone?
This is partly why it is dangerous to assume that everyone who voted for the wolf is safe.
Even I noticed that EH was receiving attention early. I asked for a summary of the suspicion yesterDay, I think. I wasn’t convinced to vote for him(still don’t really see the scuminess hints), but I knew that EH was a top-tier candidate for death. The wolves could have easily seen the pattern and joined. This leads me to a question.
Do the wolves have a separate area to talk during the Day, or is it just at Night that they can communicate?
Like I said, voting for a wolf is heavily luck based. I voted for Telcontar. If Telcontar had died, which looked likely early to mid Day, and was a wolf, I would have felt both intelligent and lucky. I wouldn’t assume everyone else who voted with me was a town.
Anyway, it’s difficult to determine how to progress at this point. I think the testerizer is basically useless. I haven’t been able to figure the thing out at all. Our focus needs to be on the lynch.
I assume most of us will continue with our previous scum suspect lists. I still suspect Telcontar the most, but he is by no means the only one on my list, which may or may not include voters for EH(I’m not prepared to announce my 2nd-4th place suspects yet). I’m not commited to voting for anyone, yet.
Mahaloth - that’s a great question. I kind of doubt we’ll get a specific answer, but if was answered affirmatively then my basic analysis is mostly shot.
Ok - so while I still think the muddled and rapid finish to yesterDay’s lynch vote probably precluded too much strategy, I will be the first to say that my initial basic analysis has a high probability of being, well, wrong
Yeah, maybe, but all we can really ask for is that it be plausible, which it is. Enough reasonable scenarios that point a particular way can add up to a pretty convincing narrative, I think, and the only concrete tool we have at our disposal is talking about motivations. Even “wrong” analysis has value, if only to see how it flies in different corners.
No. I, for one, was supposed to review Daphne and didn’t, and I also owe everyone an MHaye. I got bogged down and want him to come in here and actually talk about something besides how Zeriel stabbed him in the back.
There are two things pinging me about this data. I’m going to try and post this in such a manner that doesn’t give away my town faction.
If you’re a town farmer, things are looking grim for a win. If you’re a town rancher, the opposite. The question the ranchers must ask themselves is - “will the farmers start thinking and playing end game?”. The question the farmers must ask themselves is - “at what point do we start playing end game?”. The question for the town is - “is wolf-hunting still the prime goal for everyone in the town?”
But what really pinged me is this - why is **Zeriel **still alive?
[ul]
[li]If **Zeriel **is who he claims he is (a town investigator), then he almost must be a rancher as Ichini was a confirmed farmer investigator.[/li][li]With the rancher imbalance, a rancher alignment investigator holds a much larger power now and from here on out.[/li][li]If **Zeriel **as a rancher investigator happened to get lucky and knows 2 or 3 living farmers, that is IMHO very dangerous for the wolves. The town can (assuming **Zeriel **releases the info) really focus in on a subset of possibilities.[/li][/ul]
So why didn’t the wolves kill **Zeriel **last Night?
[ol]
[li]The wolves are playing the odds that **Zeriel **hasn’t been real lucky in his investigations (and also didn’t realize that by killing **Daphne **they’d create even more of an imbalance)[/li][li]**Zeriel **is a wolf[/li][li]My analysis above is incomplete or incorrect and there are other reasons why **Zeriel **the town investigator hasn’t been killed.[/li][/ol]
Just posting this for further discussion - am not making accusations.
On the farmer v rancher v wolf issue, firstly let me say that I have not had my alignment revealed yet, I have not intention of revealing it in this post and as such this post should not be interpreted as pro-(any faction) and anti-(any faction).
Having said that, I feel that it is too early to turn inwards on each other just yet. There are probably three wolves still in play, and the town’s lead could slip very far, very fast. When one or two wolves remain, the temptation to go factional on each other’s arses will become far stronger, but I believe it is in all our best interests to keep things civil as a town.
For now.
Both the Seeker talks and the testeriser talks - important though they were - were ultimately borderline useless. We’ve learned nothing except that Seeker is crazy and that the testeriser is screwing with us. With this in mind, these topics were a great guise for any lurkers to boost their post counts with semi-meaningful remarks.
On the Tel issue, suspicions were building as far back as Day 1. Zeriel, Daphne and myself were all pointing the finger back then, and possibly others. Day 2 saw you release a list of your suspicions, which happened to have Tel on it, and others. By now, Ichni, Mahaloth and Oredigger were joining in, too, though I see now you voted to test and lynch Tel, changing the lynch vote after we tested FS, so I suppose you did get in early. it’s just others got in earlier.
This was what I built my case on. In retrospect, it’s not a great case but at the time it seemed a lot better. Having no furry corpses to show for our efforts made me look a little harder, perhaps seeing things which weren’t there. If that is the case, then I apologise.
FWIW, I think you are about as wolfy as everyone else. But I am working under the theory that everyone except me is a wolf, until proven otherwise, so that is probably where I drew my conclusion from. You are not the first to not like the conclusion, so perhaps I was overstepping my logic slightly.
I think that the reason that Daphne was killed was because she was driving the town to talk. That is a bad thing for the wolves. Once she was helping us more then she was causing chaos it was time for her to die.
The best thing to do right now is go through EH with a fine tooth comb and look at all of his interaction so see if someone was working with him or if there was artificial strife anywhere. I’ll be back this afternoon with that.
This is pretty much what I’ve come to believe as well. She posted a lot of questions, gave a lot of suggestions, and suggested we analyzed each other carefully.
I’m not for revealing our specific rancher/farmer roles at this point. Can anyone explain to me how that would be useful or how we could even be expected to trust one another in this? I’m a simple townie with little education…please summarize the point of revealing roles.
Zeriel, have you learned anything useful yet? Was yesterDay’s investigation interesting at all?
reason 5: Zeriel has not been acting in a way that threatens any wolves. why? she’s only gone after one player in a meaningful way (Mhaye) and has said absolutely nothing to persuade anyone else to join her in doing so.
If we didn’t need to presume that that Zeriel was the rancher investigator (game balance) I’d probably support lynching her based on the anti town behavior.
I still think our best list of suspects for today is Mahaloth, Justin Credible, Jimmy Chitwood, Allwalker, and Zeriel. I keep getting the JCs confused, however, which makes things a bit problematic. They do seem to have identical takes on yesterday and last night, however, which makes me somewhat suspicious.
And if ya’ll will pardon a crass commercial announcement, I could use a sub over at the giraffeboard game. Are you dead early? Are you about to die? Didn’t get enough Mafia? Get over to GB!
